Series:PISM Bulletin

The Clean Network Initiative as an Element of the U.S.-China Competition

The Clean Network Initiative as an Element of the U.S.-China Competition

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; China; economy competition; clear network initiative; ICT:

Fearing China’s global dominance in the field of information and communications technology (ICT), including high-capacity 5G telecommunications networks, and the country’s access to new markets, in August 2020 the U.S. launched the Clean Network Initiative (CN). The coalition of states, institutions, and companies participating in it aims to prevent Chinese ICT from dominating the economies of America’s allies. The U.S. may determine the future level of cooperation with allies on the degree of saturation of their economies and infrastructure with Chinese technologies.

A New Leader and Challenges: CDU before the Election of the Party Chair

A New Leader and Challenges: CDU before the Election of the Party Chair

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Keywords: CDU; Germany; politics; elections;

The goal of the new CDU chair will be to ensure a victory in this year’s federal elections and high results in the federal elections. However, the long-term challenge will be to consolidate the Christian Democrats and define the party’s ideological profile. Deviation to the right from Chancellor Angela Merkel’s centrist course may lead to greater polarisation of the German political scene and make it difficult to build a new federal government.

UK Policy towards Russia

UK Policy towards Russia

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

Keywords: UK; Russia; foreign policy; security;

The UK has a two-pronged policy towards Russia: deterrence and containment, and limited dialogue. The improvement of relations is hampered by divergent positions on the war in eastern Ukraine and the crisis in Belarus, as well as Russia’s aggressive actions such as the chemical attack on British territory and cyberattacks. The UK will continue to insist on respect for international law, which will be a condition of any change in its position towards Russia. It is in Poland’s interests to work closely with the British, for example in increasing the defence capabilities of NATO’s Eastern Flank.

Perspectives on the Future of U.S.-India Relations during Biden’s Presidency

Perspectives on the Future of U.S.-India Relations during Biden’s Presidency

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; India; foreign policy; economy;

The incoming administration of President-elect Joe Biden is likely to continue U.S. policy of deepening the strategic partnership with India. The growing international importance of the world’s largest democracy, and especially the similarities in assessments of China’s policy, make it a key U.S. partner in Indo-Pacific. Possible tensions around, for example, India’s observance of human rights and democratic standards should not jeopardise the bilateral cooperation, which is based on a convergence of strategic and economic interests. This creates favourable conditions for strengthening Poland’s relations with India and will facilitate joint initiatives by the EU, the U.S., and India.

NATO on the Road to a New Strategy

NATO on the Road to a New Strategy

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; security; military policy; strategy; China; foreign policy;

During the meeting of NATO foreign ministers on 2–3 December 2020, a group of experts presented the report “NATO 2030. United for a New Era” about strengthening the political dimension and consultation mechanisms of the Alliance. The report indicates a possible consensus on the expansion of the Alliance’s tasks, including on a common policy towards China. The document increases the chances that the allies will decide to start work on a new NATO strategy.

Franco-British Relations after Brexit

Franco-British Relations after Brexit

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; UK; foreign policy; Brexit;

The French government hopes that the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) concluded on 24 December 2020 between the EU and the United Kingdom will open a new chapter in bilateral relations. Although the two countries may differ in trade competition and their visions of transatlantic relations, the UK is an indispensable partner of France in global politics and world security. With Brexit, discussions about the future of the EU will no longer significantly burden British-French relations.

Towards Implementation of the Recovery Fund: Portuguese Presidency of the EU Council

Towards Implementation of the Recovery Fund: Portuguese Presidency of the EU Council

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Portuguese presidency; EU council; recovery fund; implementation;

The Portuguese presidency’s key goal will be to secure EU Council approval of national recovery plans. This will enable the Member States to receive grants from the pandemic-related recovery fund. In addition, Portugal will conduct negotiations of legal acts crucial for the future of the EU on climate policy, the digital market, migration, and common agricultural policy. In its programme, the presidency emphasises the necessity to share the burden of planned actions fairly.

Biden’s Most Urgent Task: Fighting the Pandemic

Biden’s Most Urgent Task: Fighting the Pandemic

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Biden; USA; policy; COVID-19;

The Biden administration is expected to take decisive action to combat the COVID-19 pandemic and its consequences, including stimulation of the economy. For this reason, in the first months of this presidency, Biden will focus the government’s activities on domestic issues, including implementing a new pandemic strategy and funding another stimulus package. In terms of the international fight against the pandemic, Biden has already retracted the notice of the U.S. withdrawal from the WHO. The administration also announced that it will join the international vaccine initiative COVAX.

The Israeli Political Scene and the Next Parliamentary Elections

The Israeli Political Scene and the Next Parliamentary Elections

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; foreign policy; elections; government; COVID-19;

The continuing crisis in government has led to the dissolution of the Knesset and early parliamentary elections in Israel, the fourth in the last two years. Polls do not reveal any possible coalition variants, which increases the possibility for further elections in autumn. This scenario favours Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose position is strengthened by the effective vaccination campaign against COVID-19 and the normalisation of relations with Gulf states.

No Rush: Germany’s Attitude towards the Enlargement of the Euro Area

No Rush: Germany’s Attitude towards the Enlargement of the Euro Area

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Germany is cautious about boosting the eurozone enlargement process, pointing to economic weakness or a lack of political will on the part of the candidates. A more important reason, however, may be the intention to complete the reforms of the currency area - not easily reconciled with enlargement. Germany’s calculations are also influenced by the belief that after Brexit, the division of the EU into the euro area and countries sceptical about deepening integration ceases to be significant politically.

Towards Authoritarianism: Kyrgyzstan’s Internal and Foreign Policy Perspectives

Towards Authoritarianism: Kyrgyzstan’s Internal and Foreign Policy Perspectives

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kyrgyzstan; politics; Sadyr Japarov; Soronbai Jeenbekov; foreign policy;

Sadyr Japarov, the leader of the autumn protests that led to the removal from power of the previous president, Soronbai Jeenbekov, won the early presidential elections in Kyrgyzstan on 10 January. In a parallel consultative referendum, voters supported the change of the state system to the presidential system proposed by Japarov, which includes the liquidation of parliament. One consequence may be the evolution of the political system of Kyrgyzstan towards an authoritarian model similar to those in other Central Asian countries. That would have a negative impact on relations with the EU, which supports democratic reforms in Kyrgyzstan.

The Upcoming Scottish Parliamentary Elections and the Challenges of Brexit and the Pandemic

The Upcoming Scottish Parliamentary Elections and the Challenges of Brexit and the Pandemic

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

Keywords: Scotland; elections; parliament; Brexit; COVID-19; economic policy; foreign policy;

The projected victory of the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the upcoming national parliamentary elections heralds the second independence referendum in a decade. The divergent and sometimes mutually excluding policies of Brexit and pandemic implemented by Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative UK government and the SNP’s Scottish government under the leadership of Nicola Sturgeon are the key contexts for the coming election campaign. After the signing of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) with the EU on 24 December 2020 and the commencement of mass coronavirus vaccinations, Johnson’s priority is to reintegrate the British union. For Poland, it is essential that the United Kingdom maintains political stability and credibility as an ally.

“Change Creates Stability”: The Political Programme of the German Greens

“Change Creates Stability”: The Political Programme of the German Greens

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; environment; policy; politics; greens;

The Greens’ election success and public opinion polls indicate that the party has a chance to increase its representation in regional authorities and to join the federal government after the elections in 2021. This scenario may be helped by the adoption of a new political programme aimed at winning centrist voters. Co-creation of the government by the Greens could contribute to the tightening of Germany’s policy towards Russia and greater readiness to deepen European integration.

Russia’s Peacekeeping Operation in Nagorno-Karabakh: Goals and Challenges

Russia’s Peacekeeping Operation in Nagorno-Karabakh: Goals and Challenges

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; peace; peacekeeping; Nagorno-Karabakh; goals; challenges;

During a meeting in Moscow on 11 January, the representatives of Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan discussed the situation after the ceasefire in the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict. The peacekeeping force of the Russian Federation located in NK remains the guarantor of the cessation of the fighting. The practice of Russian conciliation so far differs from that of UN peacekeeping operations and strengthens Russia’s military position in the region. A challenge for it will be Turkey’s growing ambitions in the South Caucasus, as well as the lack of an agreed status for NK, which in the future may lead to the resumption of military operations in this territory.

Political Crisis in Moldova at the Beginning of President Sandu’s Term

Political Crisis in Moldova at the Beginning of President Sandu’s Term

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: politics; crisis; Sandu; Moldova; Russia; foreign policy;

The political crisis in Moldova is dragging on. It was triggered by the pro-Russian Party of Socialists (PSRM) to make it more difficult for pro-European President Maia Sandu, sworn in in December 2020, to exercise power. Her demands to fight corruption confront the interests of the Socialists’ leader and former president, Igor Dodon. On his way out, PSRM voted in a package of obstructive bills and the Ion Chicu cabinet resigned. This was to deepen the state crisis and force a demonstration of ineptitude on Sandu’s part, which PSRM hopes translates into victory over her Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) in possible early parliamentary elections.

Prospects for U.S.-Hungary Relations under the Biden Administration

Prospects for U.S.-Hungary Relations under the Biden Administration

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Hungary; Biden; foreign policy; relations; China; Russia;

The expected deterioration of bilateral political relations with Joe Biden as president will not weaken the permanent elements - defence and economic cooperation - of U.S. policy towards Hungary. The new administration will maintain pressure on Hungary because of the latter’s tightening relations with Russia and China. However, the U.S. will not have effective instruments of influence, similar to previous administrations.

Fake Success: The Conclusion of the EU-China Investment Agreement Negotiations

Fake Success: The Conclusion of the EU-China Investment Agreement Negotiations

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; China; economic policy; Investment Agreement; CAI;

The EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI), which was concluded in principle on 30 December 2020, will not significantly improve the situation of EU companies in China. The market opening announced by China is far from reciprocal and the provisions of the agreement are devoid of effective verification mechanisms. Possible ratification of the agreement, however, will limit the effectiveness of the EU in competing with China and will hamper cooperation with the U.S. in this regard. The benefits for Polish companies from CAI will be limited, also in the context of their participation in global supply chains.

The Deployment of COVID-19 Vaccines in Israel

The Deployment of COVID-19 Vaccines in Israel

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic; vaccines; Israel;

Israel most likely will become first country in the world to reach full vaccination of its resident population against COVID-19. The success of the vaccination deployment was possible due to its quick securing of supply, an efficient distribution system, and high mobilisation of society. On the political level, ending the pandemic will strengthen Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and improve his electoral prospects. The successful deployment will also become a permanent part of Israeli image policy.

The Development of Offshore Wind Energy in the Baltic Sea

The Development of Offshore Wind Energy in the Baltic Sea

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk,Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

Keywords: Baltic Sea; energy; offshore; wind energy; development;

Along with the development of renewable energy sources (RES), the interest in using the wind energy potential in the Baltic Sea is growing. Regional cooperation in this field will be conducive to the implementation of EU climate policy and, through the development of electricity connections, will contribute to the development of a more competitive electricity market in the Baltic Sea region. This creates opportunities for Poland, whose investments in offshore wind energy will not only help reduce emissions but also enable the dynamic development of innovation in the renewable energy industry. At the same time, the development of offshore wind farms requires cooperation, for example, between Poland and the countries of the region.

The Indo-Pacific Region After Trump: Competition not Confrontation

The Indo-Pacific Region After Trump: Competition not Confrontation

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Indo-Pacific region; Trump; competition; foreign policy;

The Indo-Pacific region will remain the most important foreign policy direction of the new U.S. administration. This means a continuation of the strategy started by Donald Trump, albeit with important changes in goals and mode of operation. It can be expected that the U.S. will increase engagement in the region, tighten cooperation with allies, strengthen regional organisations and put emphasis on economic issues. This creates an opportunity for deepening cooperation between the U.S. and the EU in the region, and for NATO to play a more active role there.