CEEOL - Search Result

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EU-ASEAN Summit: Taking a Step Towards an Effective Partnership

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; ASEAN; Summit; security; Russia; Ukraine; war; aggression;

The leaders of EU Member States and ASEAN met in Brussels on 14 December for the first ever summit of the two organisations. They announced a decision regarding the EU’s involvement in the development of infrastructure in ASEAN countries and confirmed their will to implement a joint action plan for 2023- 2027. However, there were discrepancies regarding the participating states’ approaches to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, which shows the limitations of bilateral cooperation on global issues.

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Russian Attacks May Prompt Increased Refugee Flows from Ukraine

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia; war; refugees; migration;

Russia is continuing its intensive attacks on critical infrastructure in Ukraine. These are deliberate actions that violate international humanitarian law and are aimed at breaking the morale of Ukrainian society. Power outages mean that many towns and villages are not only without heating but also without water. Further devastation and the difficulty of repairs could trigger a humanitarian catastrophe. Most of the population will try to survive the winter in their current residences or by resettling in smaller towns. Increased refugee movement across borders, especially to Poland, is also possible.

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The Schengen Zone: While Croatia Joins, Further Enlargement Faces Challenges

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Schengen Zone; Croatia; EU; economic policy; foreign policy;

In December, EU interior ministers unanimously supported the expansion of the Schengen zone to include Croatia. At the same time, the Council did not agree on the membership of Romania and Bulgaria. The former was opposed by Austria, and the latter by both Austria and the Netherlands. Although Croatia’s smooth integration into Schengen may weaken the arguments of sceptics of further enlargement, without deep reforms of the entire system and the EU’s migration policy, it will be very difficult to obtain consent for membership of other candidates.

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Implementation of the EU Strategy for the Indo-Pacific is High on Ambition, Low on Outcomes

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; strategy; implementation; Info-Pacific; Russia; sanctions;

More than a year after the announcement of the EU Indo-Pacific strategy, the effects of its implementation are limited. The preparation of new financial instruments and initiatives has been hampered by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, which pulled away the attention of EU institutions. The war highlighted the need to prioritise geographical and thematic Union policies. It is in the EU’s interest to focus on the Indian Ocean area and economic issues where it has competences and tools for action. EU involvement should be coordinated with key partners in the region, leading to complementarity of their initiatives.

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Peru Enters a New Stage in Its Political Crisis

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Peru; foreign policy; politics; crisis; Pedro Castillo;

On 7 December, Peruvian President Pedro Castillo was arrested following his unsuccessful attempt at autogolpe - an unconstitutional takeover of full power by an incumbent head of state. The parliament, immediately voted to remove him and appointed Vice President Dina Boluarte to the highest office, which sparked violent riots by Castillo’s supporters. Bringing general elections forward by two years, to April 2024, is aimed to overcome this new stage of the political crisis that has afflicted Peru in the last few years. Foreign reactions of support for the new government prevailed, but tensions are visible in Peru’s relations with supporters of Castillo, including Mexico.

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Weighing the Prospects for a Revision of the EU Multiannual Budget 2021-2027

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; multiannual budget; economic policy; strategy; prospects;

The actions undertaken by the EU in relation to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine require considerable funding. An increase in the community budget, as advocated by the European Parliament, is, however, unlikely chiefly due to resistance from the countries that are net payers. Consequently, the EU will attempt to reprioritise funds within the budget and modify the plans for spending from the recovery fund. In the absence of consensus on new sources of revenue for the community, the likelihood of resorting to common borrowing for the purpose of new undertakings is low.

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What is the Probable Impact of Trump's Legal Problems on His Candidacy?

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Donald Trump; legal problems; candidacy;

Former U.S. President Donald Trump faces charges in four criminal cases but is nonetheless the leading candidate seeking the Republican Party’s nomination ahead of the 2024 presidential election. One or more guilty verdicts in the individual cases would carry serious legal consequences - including potentially imprisonment - but will not formally prevent him from running for or even taking office. Hoping to win election, Trump is likely to seek to drag out the cases to gain immunity.

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Prospects Dim for Settling the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Author(s): Wojciech Wojtasiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Nagorno-Karabakh conflict; Armenia; Azerbaijan; border; foreign policy;

Despite the intensification of talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan on settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, no breakthrough has been achieved. The leaders of the countries, respectively, Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev, declare their willingness to reach an agreement, but have not come to terms on any major issue. The future status of Nagorno-Karabakh, guarantees for Karabakh Armenians, and the course of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border remain unresolved, raising fears of a renewed war.

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Towards a Data Single Market in the European Union

Author(s): Marta Makowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; data; market; unification; economy; digitization;

Along with the digitisation of the economy, the amount of produced data has increased dynamically. The European Commission (EC) wants to stimulate data usage and sharing between enterprises, citizens, and the public sector in the EU. Creating a “data single market” aims at increasing innovation and economic growth in conditions of extensive international competition. The main challenge is achieving the EU’s ambitions of becoming independent from American cloud service providers and growing European enterprises’ share in the data market.

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Russia Demands Security Guarantees from the U.S. and NATO

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; NATO; Russia; security; foreign policy; guarantees;

On 10 December, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the dialogue with the United States and other Western countries regarding security guarantees. The statement has an accusatory and provocative tone, and in it Russia makes a number of demands on the “collective West”. Poland can support the diplomatic efforts while also indicating that entering into negotiations with Russia on the terms it proposes would be detrimental to European security.

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Japan’s Foreign Policy Under Kishida

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Japan; foreign policy; Kishida Fumio;

The government of Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, formed on 10 November, will continue the foreign policy of his predecessors Abe Shinzō and Suga Yoshihide. In response to China’s regional policy, Japan intends to develop its military potential and deepen cooperation with the U.S. and other partners, including European, in the Indo-Pacific. At the same time, Kishida will strive for stable relations with China and trade liberalisation in the region out of Japan’s own economic interest. The new government’s focus on the country’s internal socioeconomic problems will be conducive to maintaining the current course in foreign policy.

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The Course of the Energy Transition in Latin America

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak,Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Latin America; energy; economy; policy;

The energy transition in Latin American countries is increasingly important for their economic development and the fight against climate change. These states want to use their potential of renewable energy sources (RES) and raw materials such as lithium deposits to attract investments and increase their participation in global supply chains building the low-carbon economy. The EU and its Member States - Germany in particular - have been more and more involved in cooperation with the region in these areas. Poland can also benefit, for example, through the exchange of experience and the engagement of Polish companies.

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Prospects for the Development of the “3+3” Format on the South Caucasus

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Keywords: South Caucasus; development; foreign policy;

On 10 December, the inaugural meeting of the “3+3” format was held in Moscow. The initiative is meant to be a new formula for regional cooperation and it includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, with Russia, Turkey, and Iran, although Georgia is boycotting it. The interests of the other countries in the format reflects deeper tendencies in their regional policy given the new status quo after the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020. The project is a manifestation of Russia, Turkey, and Iran’s desire to limit U.S. and EU influence in the South Caucasus. Georgia’s participation could be a key factor that determines the effectiveness of the format, which is why the U.S. and the EU should counteract the initiative by strengthening cooperation with Georgia.

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Potential Impact of Russia’s Demands on NATO’s Defence and Deterrence

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; defence; policy; deterrence; Russia; demands;

The draft treaties with the U.S. and NATO published by Russia on 17 December contain proposals to limit the American and allied presence and military activity in the Russian neighborhood. Most of them are not new and have already been rejected. If now they become an impulse for dialogue with Russia, they could weaken the Alliance. Possible negotiations of regional instruments (regarding the Eastern Flank) of arms control and disarmament may lead to stopping or even withdrawing the process of NATO’s adaptation to the threat from Russia.

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Ahead of the CCP’s 20th Congress, Changes in Personnel and Xi’s Historical Role

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; CCP; Congress; Xi Jinping;

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is preparing for its congress in the fall of 2022 when Xi Jinping is to be re-elected secretary-general and his proteges become members of the most important bodies of the CCP. To prepare for this, the party is carrying out personnel changes in the provinces and party apparatus, strengthening Xi’s image as guarantor of China’s development, and maintaining confrontational rhetoric in its foreign policy, especially on Taiwan and human rights.

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Omicron: No Global Solidarity on the Pandemic

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: WHO; COVID-19; Omicron; pandemic; solidarity;

Immediately after the World Health Organisation (WHO) announced a new coronavirus “variant of concern” called omicron on 26 November, more than 50 countries blocked travel to and from South Africa and neighbouring countries. WHO, African states, and the UN Secretary-General have accused the rich northern states of the selective use of inadequate measures that harm southern countries. To end the pandemic, it will be necessary to reduce the growing discrepancy between the northern and southern states through a solidarity-based approach to the fight against COVID-19.

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Protection of Digital Platform Workers in the EU

Author(s): Marta Makowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; labour; workers; digital platform; protection;

The European Commission (EC) has proposed a directive that provides protection of people performing work for digital platforms, especially in professions that do not require specialist qualifications. If the proposal is accepted in the shape presented by the EC, it will be a breakthrough solution on a global scale that adjusts labour law to the challenges of the digital economy. It will also strengthen the EU’s position in relations with platforms.

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More Obstacles to Ratification of the EU-Mercosur Agreement

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Mercosur; Agreement; obstacles; ratification; trade; economy; sustainable development;

The entry into force of the EU-Mercosur Association Agreement, negotiated in June 2019, has been delayed further. The Union is conditioning ratification of the deal on an additional agreement on sustainable development because of its reservations about Brazil’s policy in this area. The situation is complicated by the divergence in Mercosur regarding the bloc’s development course, especially in the face of the economic difficulties caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The delay in ratification erodes the EU’s position in the region and the possibility of the deal as a counterweight to China - Mercosur’s main trading partner.

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Prospects for Deeper Economic Relations between the EU and the U.S.

Author(s): Paweł Markiewicz,Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; USA; economy; foreign policy; relations;

The EU wants to use the election of a new U.S. president to seek an improvement in bilateral economic relations that would go beyond settling trade disagreements and also involve the Union’s priorities - climate policy and the digital transition. Shared interests in relation to China, the president-elect’s intention to strengthen the transatlantic bond, and his ambitions on climate create favourable conditions for cooperation. Regulations regarding American companies that dominate the digital sector, along with the U.S. deficit in bilateral trade will remain a source of contention.

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Priorities of the New Lithuanian Government

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

Keywords: Lithuania; government; priorities; Baltic Sea Region; foreign policy;

On 11 December 2020, a new Lithuanian government was sworn in. It is formed of the conservative Union of the Homeland–Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD) and two liberal parties. The differences within the coalition, including on the economy, will be a challenge, however, there are no fundamental differences in the external dimension. Lithuania will focus on the alliance with the U.S. and on European politics. The government has announced actions in the eastern dimension and in strengthening cooperation in the Baltic Sea region. Poland will remain an important partner for Lithuania, but the intensity of the cooperation to date may be limited.

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Series:PISM Bulletin

EU-ASEAN Summit: Taking a Step Towards an Effective Partnership

Russian Attacks May Prompt Increased Refugee Flows from Ukraine

The Schengen Zone: While Croatia Joins, Further Enlargement Faces Challenges

Implementation of the EU Strategy for the Indo-Pacific is High on Ambition, Low on Outcomes

Peru Enters a New Stage in Its Political Crisis

Weighing the Prospects for a Revision of the EU Multiannual Budget 2021-2027

What is the Probable Impact of Trump's Legal Problems on His Candidacy?

Prospects Dim for Settling the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Towards a Data Single Market in the European Union

Russia Demands Security Guarantees from the U.S. and NATO

Japan’s Foreign Policy Under Kishida

The Course of the Energy Transition in Latin America

Prospects for the Development of the “3+3” Format on the South Caucasus

Potential Impact of Russia’s Demands on NATO’s Defence and Deterrence

Ahead of the CCP’s 20th Congress, Changes in Personnel and Xi’s Historical Role

Omicron: No Global Solidarity on the Pandemic

Protection of Digital Platform Workers in the EU

More Obstacles to Ratification of the EU-Mercosur Agreement

Prospects for Deeper Economic Relations between the EU and the U.S.

Priorities of the New Lithuanian Government