Series:PISM Bulletin

Russia’s Greater Involvement in Afghanistan: International Aspects

Russia’s Greater Involvement in Afghanistan: International Aspects

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Afghanistan; Russia; Security

Russia’s establishment of contact with the Taliban and organisation of three international peace conferences on Afghanistan points at its growing re-engagement in the country. Russian authorities have revised their Afghan policy in light of the deteriorating security situation there, the failed peace negotiations, and lack of a clear American strategy towards the region. Afghanistan has emerged like Syria and Libya as another arena in the Russia-West rivalry, which may further undermine the war-torn country’s stability. NATO should reverse the negative trends in Afghanistan by increasing support to the Afghan security forces and reviving limited cooperation with Russia, for instance, on regional peace initiatives.

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Power Grid Upgrade: Baltic States Seek Security, Reduced Dependence on Russia

Power Grid Upgrade: Baltic States Seek Security, Reduced Dependence on Russia

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

Keywords: Baltic states; energetics; Estonia; Latvia; Lithuania; Russia

Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, with the support of the European Commission, want to synchronise their power grids with European systems to reduce their dependence on Russia. A compromise reached on a connection via Poland does not specify the technical details and the Baltic States still have differences about what they want. Further support for integration of the electricity sector is in the interest of Poland but should be conditioned on the compliance of all three countries and funding from the European Union.

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Russian Policy towards the Largest States of North Africa

Russian Policy towards the Largest States of North Africa

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Algeria; Egypt; Libya; North Africa; Russia; armament; energetics; Security

Russia perceives North Africa as an area of rivalry with the United States and European Union countries. It is enhancing its political, economic and military presence in the largest countries in the southern Mediterranean and its position as an important player in the local oil and gas sectors and as a security partner could pose challenges to NATO and the EU.

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The 2007 Berlin and 2017 Rome Declarations: Compared, with Conclusions

The 2007 Berlin and 2017 Rome Declarations: Compared, with Conclusions

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Berlin Declaration; Rome Decleration

The Berlin and Rome Declarations, adopted respectively on the 50th and 60th anniversaries of the Treaties of Rome, differ in both the general tone and the challenges presented. At the time that the Berlin Declaration was signed, the direction of European Union reforms was clearly outlined. The Union was to be transformed into a single international organisation, in which the majority of decisions would be made using the “community” method. This direction was confirmed by the Treaty of Lisbon. In the Rome Declaration, there is uncertainty about the future of the EU and the lack of a coherent vision for the development of the organisation. This could result in the short-term defence of the status quo, and the longer-term differentiation of integration.

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Challenges to U.S.-Russia Strategic Arms Control during the Trump Presidency

Challenges to U.S.-Russia Strategic Arms Control during the Trump Presidency

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec / Language(s): English

Keywords: arms control; Russia; USA; Donald Trump; Security

The coming years may mark the end of bilateral limitations of U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals. The future of the New START treaty is unclear, chances for a new agreement slim, and violation of the INF treaty by Russia remains a serious challenge. While strategic arms control strengthens NATO’s security, it should not come at the price of concessions undermining the role of the U.S. as guarantor of security and stability in Europe.

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Mounting Tensions in India-Pakistan Relations: International Consequences

Mounting Tensions in India-Pakistan Relations: International Consequences

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: India; Pakistan

A series of attacks reportedly by Pakistani militants in India across 2016 has led to a deepening crisis in Indo-Pakistani relations. The exchange of accusations and continuing threat of new attacks pose the risk of further escalation of the conflict. The rivalry negatively impacts regional cooperation and the stabilisation of Afghanistan. It also has contributed to the proliferation of nuclear weapons and growing menace of terrorism. Peace in the region and normalisation of ties depend on Pakistan taking on a stronger antiterrorism policy. More probable, however, is the continuation of the period of manageable tension.

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Hungary’s Foreign Policy in a Changing International Environment

Hungary’s Foreign Policy in a Changing International Environment

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Hungary; Viktor Orbán; Central Europe

Hungarian authorities see Donald Trump’s presidency as confirmation that the overall international situation is evolving in a direction it foresees. That may result in Hungary increasing its foreign policy activity, although its interests and Poland’s will increasingly differ. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s vision of the EU is of a bloc based on the French-German tandem and independent military capabilities. Further, the Visegrad Group would constitute one of several economically competing European regions. Orbán also expects the U.S. to try to normalise relations with Russia and aims for Hungary to take a leading role in shaping EU policy towards its eastern neighbour.

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U.S. Policy towards NATO: Continuation with Risk of Change

U.S. Policy towards NATO: Continuation with Risk of Change

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; Europe; Russia; Security; USA

U.S. pressure on Allies to increase defence spending to at least 2% of GDP may lead to a strengthening of NATO, but also entails a risk of weakening transatlantic ties. The Alliance and its members, including Poland, should also expect further calls for greater involvement in the fight against terrorism. Further funding for U.S. actions aimed at strengthening NATO’s Eastern Flank is yet to be specified. U.S. policy towards Russia remains unclear too.

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Protests in Belarus

Protests in Belarus

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus; protests;Lukashenka;

Recent protests in Belarus pose a challenge for the authorities, because along with slogans calling for improved social conditions, which appeared for the first time since the 1990s, the demonstrators have increasingly formulated political demands. So far, the Belarusian authorities have reacted in a limited manner by imposing administrative sanctions almost only on the opposition activists. In the near future, the intensity of the demonstrations will probably continue and may turn massive. Violations of human rights by Belarusian authorities is possible. Moreover, new events may prompt Russia to engage in the country directly.

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Threats to Security in East Asia

Threats to Security in East Asia

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Keywords: East Asia; Security; China; Japan; North Korea; Pacific Ocean Region; South Korea

The political and security situation in East Asia increases the risk of internal destabilisation in individual countries, regional militarisation and conflicts. It is likely that China will strengthen its position. The long-term effect might be a modification of regional order, which is currently based mainly on the presence of the U.S. as security guarantor. In the shorter term, the developments in Asia might convince the U.S. to increase its interest in the region at the expense of other parts of the world.

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Prospects for Turkey-U.S. Relations in the Context of the Syrian Civil War

Prospects for Turkey-U.S. Relations in the Context of the Syrian Civil War

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Syria; Turkey; civil war; conflict; USA

Turkey hopes for an improvement in its relations with the United States during Donald Trump’s presidency. The intensive political dialogue between the two allies suggests that the U.S. also wishes for that. However, their different approaches to the Syrian civil war may be a serious obstacle to reach that aim. A lack of understanding on that issue may induce Turkey’s actions, which would complicate the fight against the Islamic State. In the longer-term perspective, it may also strengthen anti-Western sentiments in Turkey and weaken the country’s engagement in NATO.

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Germany’s Migration Policy Correction: Distancing from Extreme Proposals

Germany’s Migration Policy Correction: Distancing from Extreme Proposals

Author(s): Miłosława Fijałkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; Migrations; Angela Merkel; parliamentary elections; political parties; refugees; society

The mass-migration crisis that enveloped Germany in 2015 has had consequences for ruling party CDU, mainly costing it support. It also increased the popularity of extreme right-wing party Alternative for Germany, which demands a drastic tightening of the country’s immigration policy. Instead of the extreme measures, Chancellor Angela Merkel has decided on a revised approach that combines tightening immigration laws, greater protection and monitoring of borders, and increasing deportations of people refused legal protection in Germany. Merkel’s policy has brought positive results, but the price for it is seen in cracks in the ruling coalition and even within her own party.

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Romanians Protest Changes in Anti-Corruption Law

Romanians Protest Changes in Anti-Corruption Law

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Romanian protests; Anti-Corruption Law

The largest protests in Romania since 1989 have been caused by the interpretation of two emergency government ordinances as an attempt to paralyse the fight against corruption, which has been effective for a few years now. Although the government withdrew the projects, the demonstrations have continued, with protesters seeing it as just a temporary concession. They fear the ruling parties, which have politicians threatened with criminal trials, will undertake a new attempt to change the country’s anti-corruption laws. The credibility of Romania as an international partner could be undermined by a deterioration of its image in this respect and that also would have negative repercussions for Poland.

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Multiannual Financial Framework Review: Implications for Poland

Multiannual Financial Framework Review: Implications for Poland

Author(s): Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU budget; Europe; European Union; Finances

Completed 7 March 2017, the mid-term revision of the EU’s finances does not introduce profound changes to the common budget by 2020. However, it does affect other features of the financial framework, including increased flexibility and clearer links between EU finances and Community priorities. This signals deep reform of spending beyond 2020 and is likely detrimental to Poland’s EU income. Drawing on previous experience with the MFF, the Polish government should use the period before the start of negotiations on the next financial perspective to minimise the risk of negative changes and to promote its budget agenda.

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EU at a Crossroads: European Commission Lays out 5 Scenarios for the Union’s Future

EU at a Crossroads: European Commission Lays out 5 Scenarios for the Union’s Future

Author(s): Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Commission; Europe; European Union

Ahead of the European Council summit on the 60th anniversary of the Treaties of Rome, the European Commission has prepared a white paper on the possible paths of EU development. The vague content of the document, though, reflects the uncertainty amongst the Member States, although the first reactions of Western European politicians favour the multi-speed Europe scenario. For Poland, especially as long as it remains outside the euro area, it will be important that EU discussions be inclusive and non-discriminatory.

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Strengthening Deterrence in the Black Sea Region

Strengthening Deterrence in the Black Sea Region

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; Bulgaria; Romania; Russia; Security; Turkey

Russia’s development of its offensive capabilities in the Black Sea region could pose a threat to NATO. Yet Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey each have different perceptions of the threat, making it difficult for the Alliance to strengthen deterrence policy in the regional dimension. Although NATO is gradually adjusting its forces in response to the new strategic situation, the credibility of deterrence depends on the rotational presence of U.S. troops.

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The Prospects of Freezing the Conflict in Donbas

The Prospects of Freezing the Conflict in Donbas

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; conflict; Russia

The almost three-year-long war in eastern Ukraine (Donbas) could become another frozen conflict in the post-Soviet area. The reasons for this are the lack of agreement between Ukraine and Russia on the future of the region and Moscow’s support for the Donbas administration by, for example, giving military support and recognising the civil documents the region issues. Russia has experience leveraging conflicts of this type and using them to further its foreign policy aims. At the same time, Russia has become hostage to the conflict in Donbas, which for Poland leads to further destabilisation of the EU’s eastern neighbourhood.

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Russia’s Attempts to Influence the Presidential Election in France

Russia’s Attempts to Influence the Presidential Election in France

Author(s): Łukasz Jurczyszyn / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; presidential elections; Russia

Russia has built in France a network of political, economic and media influencers, which have an impact on a significant part of the French elite and general public. Moscow has been using this network in the French presidential election campaign, to support those politicians who sympathise with Russian politics. Yet the rising popularity of socio-liberal candidate Emmanuel Macron, who is least favourable for Russia, could prove a real test for the effectiveness of these influencers.

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India’s Perspective on Cooperation with the U.S. under Donald Trump’s Presidency

India’s Perspective on Cooperation with the U.S. under Donald Trump’s Presidency

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: India; China; Donald Trump; Russia; USA

It is likely that U.S. President Donald Trump will continue strengthening American engagement with India. Despite some differing views on international affairs, including globalisation and policy on Pakistan, an expected change in the U.S. approach to China and Russia, together with an intensified fight against terrorism, will further solidify cooperation between the U.S. and India. India also counts on Trump’s presidency hastening global governance reforms, helping New Delhi strengthen its regional and global position.

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Potential Legal and Political Effects if the U.S. Relocates Its Embassy to Jerusalem

Potential Legal and Political Effects if the U.S. Relocates Its Embassy to Jerusalem

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba,Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; Donald Trump; international law; Jordan; Middle East; Palestine; USA

U.S. President Donald Trump has stated he would like to see the American embassy in Israel moved from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Such a move would be discordant with international law and more than four decades of policy of his predecessors. It would bring negative political consequences for the U.S., Israel, the Middle East and the European Union, even if it were well received by some Israelis and American members of Congress.

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