Series:PISM Bulletin

Slovakia’s View of the Visegrad Group

Slovakia’s View of the Visegrad Group

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Slovakia; Visegrad Group; Central Europe

In the debate on the future of the European Union, Slovakia favours more integration. The sharpening discussion about a multi-speed Europe could undermine political cooperation within the Visegrad Group. Slovakia uses the V4 to strengthen its position on selected issues but, at the same time, signals shortcomings associated with group membership. The response to the possibility that political cooperation will be undermined requires joint action on the future of the EU based on the V4 March statement.

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European Commission Gives Go-Ahead to Hungary’s Nuclear Power Plant Expansion

European Commission Gives Go-Ahead to Hungary’s Nuclear Power Plant Expansion

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Hungary; nuclear power plant; energetics; nuclear energy; Russia

The European Commission has given a green light to planned work on the Paks nuclear power plant in Hungary. This means Russian state-owned company Rosatom can carry out the project in which it was directly awarded the construction of two new reactors. The circumstances behind the signing of the agreement, part of which is classified, may indicate the existence of broader energy arrangements between Hungary and Russia and could translate into their further strengthening political cooperation. The EC’s decision approving this use of state aid also contains guidelines Poland may use for future nuclear projects.

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Trump Administration’s Approach to the North Korean Nuclear and Missile Threats

Trump Administration’s Approach to the North Korean Nuclear and Missile Threats

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: North Korea; nuclear weapons; Security; USA

The Trump administration intends to robustly respond to the “immediate” missile and nuclear threat from North Korea. Its strategy will be, to a large extent, a continuation of previous policy. A new element, though, is pressure on China to take full advantage of its leverage over Kim Jong Un’s regime. Growing tensions on the Korean Peninsula could have significant implications on the relationship between the U.S. and its European allies.

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The Potential Effects of Renegotiation of NAFTA

The Potential Effects of Renegotiation of NAFTA

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: trade; USA; Canada; economy; Free Trade Agreement; Mexico; North America

In the U.S. presidential campaign, Donald Trump criticised NAFTA, calling it the “worst trade deal” the U.S. has ever signed. He decried the agreement as contributing to the high U.S. trade deficit with Mexico and loss of jobs to that country. In the first days of his presidency, Trump said his administration would renegotiate NAFTA to make it more beneficial to the U.S. Talks on this issue could take a while. Moreover, if the partners remain inflexible in their demands, withdrawal from NAFTA cannot be excluded. Its renegotiation may also have a negative impact on the world economy, partly by increasing uncertainty and limiting investment in NAFTA member states.

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Consequences of the Deterioration of the Situation in Donbas*

Consequences of the Deterioration of the Situation in Donbas*

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; conflict; Eastern Europe; Russia

The recent exacerbation of hostilities in Ukraine’s Donbas is a reaction by Russia-backed irregular forces to actions taken by the Ukraine Armed Forces (UAF), who since December 2016 have been gradually restoring control over territory along the Minsk-agreed separation line. Russia accuses Ukraine of breaching the Minsk agreement and blames the Ukrainian authorities for the outbreak of fighting. The argument will be used by Russia to lift sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the EU. However, the Ukrainian authorities claim that the UAF’s actions have not violated the Minsk agreement since it provides for the territory in question to be under Ukraine’s control.

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Financial Support for Polish Businesses Abroad

Financial Support for Polish Businesses Abroad

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: economy; Finances; Poland

Financial support from public funds is aimed at increasing the competitiveness of exporters and investors. Financing the activity of businesses abroad is a tool for a country in its rivalry on international markets. To increase the chances of Polish companies to win foreign contracts, the state system of support for such businesses should include higher spending, improvement of existing instruments and broadening of their scope, and increased recognition among entrepreneurs.

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Possible Course of U.S. Climate Policy under President Trump

Possible Course of U.S. Climate Policy under President Trump

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: climate; USA; Donald Trump; energy and climate

During his election campaign, Donald Trump announced a break with the policy of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which in his view adversely affects business in the United States. Among his stated aims were taking the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement, cutting off financing for climate protection in developing countries, and repealing federal regulations aimed at reducing emissions and the use of fossil fuels. The limitation of actions related to climate protection in the U.S. seems to be a foregone conclusion, but the global consequences will depend on the specific decisions of the new administration.

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Prospects for Compromise on Reform of the Common European Asylum System

Prospects for Compromise on Reform of the Common European Asylum System

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Common European Asylum System (CEAS); Europe; European Union; Migrations; refugees

Supporters and opponents of the automatic redistribution of asylum-seekers have been unable to find compromise on changes to the Common European Asylum System for several months. Many Member States are against transferring the competences they hold on migration to the EU level. Thus, it’s worth working toward a solution that would enable relocation while maintaining Member State control over the influx of refugees to their territory.

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Martin Schulz Stands as SPD’s Candidate for Chancellor: Implications for Germany, the EU and Polish-German Relations

Martin Schulz Stands as SPD’s Candidate for Chancellor: Implications for Germany, the EU and Polish-German Relations

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; Martin Schulz; Europe; political parties

On 29 January, Martin Schulz became chairman of the Social Democrats (SPD) and its candidate for chancellor of Germany. Schulz will strengthen the leadership of the party and his nomination makes the election campaign more exciting. The moderate growth of SPD in the elections may determine the continuation of the grand coalition and the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel. However, a better result for SPD may open the way to other coalitions and put Schulz in the chancellor’s office, which would entail a change in European politics in Germany. A change in the government and political scene in Germany would be a big challenge for Polish-German relations.

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German Proposals for Increased Control of Online Media after the U.S. Presidential Election

German Proposals for Increased Control of Online Media after the U.S. Presidential Election

Author(s): Miłosława Fijałkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: cybersecurity; Germany; cyberspace; elections; parliamentary elections; USA

The 2016 U.S. presidential election showed that the fight for voters on social media may have resulted in the spread of false information, propaganda and disinformation. In Germany’s upcoming election campaign, a similar scenario may unfold. To prevent it, the German government intends to take preventive measures, but against new forms of online threats they may prove insufficient.

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Current Legal Situation of the OPAL Pipeline

Current Legal Situation of the OPAL Pipeline

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: gas; economy; energetics; Europe; European Commission; Gazprom; Germany

In December 2016, companies of the PGNiG Group took successful legal action to suspend the implementation of a European Commission decision on the rules relating to the operation of the OPAL gas pipeline, changed by the German regulator for the benefit of Gazprom. Nevertheless, Gazprom has increased the use of the pipeline to full capacity. While its behaviour cannot be considered incompatible with EU and German law, the actions of German authorities violate the EU principle of sincere cooperation. Poland should urge the European Commission to ensure that, pending the delivery of the final judgment, the new rules on the operation of the OPAL gas pipeline are not applied.

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Intelligence Reports on Russian Interference in the U.S. Presidential Election

Intelligence Reports on Russian Interference in the U.S. Presidential Election

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: cybersecurity; presidential elections; Russia; USA; cyberspace; Security

Reports published by American intelligence confirm Russian special services’ interference in the 2016 presidential campaign. Russia used cyberoperations, media and other material to discredit Hillary Clinton to decrease her chances of success in the election and improve Donald Trump’s prospects. Russia’s ambitious operation will have profound consequences for the new U.S. administration and its foreign policy, and for American intelligence agencies. Appointments in the Trump administration are coinciding with ongoing investigations into some of the new president’s advisors’ ties to Russia, and with two U.S. Senate panel inquiries on American intelligence failures and mistakes in cyberdefence.

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Foreign Policy under the Trump Administration: Starting Point

Foreign Policy under the Trump Administration: Starting Point

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Keywords: Donald Trump; USA; foreign policy

The Trump administration’s shaping of foreign policy will be affected by the likelihood of a divergence of views within the administration, the conflict-prone temperaments of the president’s closest advisors, lack of full support from Republicans in Congress and the significant informal impact of the Trump family on the president. These could result in conflict in three areas: disputes within the administration, between formal and informal advisors to the president, and between the executive and legislative branches of the U.S. government.

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Prospects for the UK–U.S. Special Relationship

Prospects for the UK–U.S. Special Relationship

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk,Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: United Kingdom; USA; Security

The British government will try to deepen the country’s cooperation with the U.S. in the area of security and defence to offset the negative political and economic effects of Brexit. However, Britain will face the risk of a further decline of its military potential and serious differences with the administration of Donald Trump on major foreign policy issues, including NATO and Russia. In effect, the UK might be forced to focus on strengthening European security at the cost of supporting the U.S. in other regions.

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The Importance of Donald Trump’s Electoral Success for Marine Le Pen’s Presidential Campaign

The Importance of Donald Trump’s Electoral Success for Marine Le Pen’s Presidential Campaign

Author(s): Łukasz Jurczyszyn / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; Marine Le Pen; Donald Trump; presidential elections; USA

Donald Trump’s victory increases Marine Le Pen's chances in the presidential election in France, because it legitimises her thesis about major upcoming global political changes. It also strengthens her argument about the importance of the role of national identity and the necessity of regaining national control over the economy and society. However, during the campaign her party the National Front will not play up ideological similarities between Le Pen and Trump, because it could mobilise her opponents and turn anti-American resentment, still strong in French society, against her.

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The Chinese Perspective on Relations with the U.S. under Donald Trump’s Administration

The Chinese Perspective on Relations with the U.S. under Donald Trump’s Administration

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; Donald Trump; Taiwan; economy; Security; USA

China’s assessment of the result of the U.S. election and prospects for relations with the U.S., have evolved from cautious optimism to concerns about a possible new chapter of the U.S. pivot to Asia policy, in which China might be cast in the role as main adversary. Apart from economic and security matters, Taiwan is becoming an important contentious issue. This is vindicated by statements by Donald Trump and Peter Navarro, chief of the National Trade Council, in which they undermine “One China” principle. Therefore, the rising tensions in bilateral relations, including risks of incidents in the Asia-Pacific region and a trade war, are probable.

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Problems with Corruption in Ukraine

Problems with Corruption in Ukraine

Author(s): Piotr Kościński,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: corruption; Ukraine; Eastern Europe; society

Under pressure from civil society and international institutions, the Ukrainian authorities have taken steps to reduce corruption. Although these measures have brought initial positive results, corruption remains one of the biggest problems facing the country as any changes meet with resistance from part of the Ukrainian political elite afraid of revealing their illegal activities and reducing future profits.

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Implications of the Election of a New President of the European Parliament

Implications of the Election of a New President of the European Parliament

Author(s): Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Parliament; EU institutions; Europe; European Union

In the absence of compromise between the two largest political groups of the European Parliament, the result of the election of its new president, to be held on January 17, is difficult to predict. Victory for the European People’s Party’s candidate would mark the end of the current balance of power as representatives of EPP would lead the three most important EU institutions: the European Council, the Parliament and the Commission. Only the position of high representative for foreign affairs and security policy would remain staffed by a candidate of the Progressive Alliance of European Socialists and Democrats. The choice of the new head of the EP does not automatically imply a new president of the European Council. Yet it can have consequences for the political situation in Italy, and thus for the future of the eurozone.

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The Russian Federation’s New Foreign Policy Concept

The Russian Federation’s New Foreign Policy Concept

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; foreign policy; security

On 30 November 2016, President Vladimir Putin signed a new Russian Foreign Policy Concept. In the document, Russia states its aspirations to pursue an active policy in the field of international security (especially in the Middle East). One of its instruments will be seeking opportunities for cooperation with the administration of the new president of the United States. Relations with the EU will be reduced to economic cooperation, while more focus will be placed on developing political and economic relations with Asian countries.

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Turkey-U.S. Relations Overshadowed by the Reza Zarrab Sanctions Evasion Case

Turkey-U.S. Relations Overshadowed by the Reza Zarrab Sanctions Evasion Case

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; USA

The trial in the U.S. of a Turkish banker charged with helping Iran evade American sanctions has heard testimony from Reza Zarrab, a gold trader who pleaded guilty to helping the banker and became the prosecution’s star witness. The trial is criticised by Turkish politicians who apparently are afraid it will reveal their role in the operation. The trial will boost anti-Western rhetoric in Turkey and will deepen the crisis in Turkish-American relations. Because of Turkish state lender Halkbank’s supposed participation in the dealings, it may also affect Turkey’s economy. The prolonged difficulties in Turkey-U.S. relations constitute a challenge to NATO unity.

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