CEEOL - Search Result

Turkey: On the Road to a Presidential System

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; AKP - Justice and Development Party; presidential elections; Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

The Turkish parliament has adopted a constitutional reform package that introduces a presidential system. The amendments not only impair parliament’s role but also weaken the judiciary’s independence. To enter into force, the reform package must be approved by referendum, set for 16 April. The referendum campaign will intensify tensions in Turkey and the changes could lead to a deterioration of Turkey-EU relations.

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Consequences of the Assassination of the Russian Ambassador to Turkey

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Turkey; Recep Tayyip Erdoğan; Vladimir Putin

The assassination of Andrei Karlov, the Russian ambassador to Turkey, was initially perceived as a threat to relations between Turkey and Russia. However, statements voiced by the two countries’ presidents declared the murder to be provocation aimed precisely at spoiling these relations. Thus, the incident may facilitate rapprochement between the two countries. Accusations that the assassin was linked to the Gülen movement may also lead to tensions between Turkey and the United States.

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The Visegrad Group in Czech Policy

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Czech Republic; Visegrad Group; Central Europe

The Czech Republic sees the Visegrad Group as a platform to build regional economic ties and an ad hoc political alliance, mainly, at present, as an instrument of collective opposition to mandatory migrant quotas proposed by the European Commission. Czech policy in the V4 is based on the principle that cooperation within the group cannot take place at the expense of close relations with Germany, nor can it become a policy of sustained opposition to European integration. The parliamentary election scheduled for autumn 2017, and the related focus of Czech politicians on internal matters, will reduce their activity in international forums, including the V4.

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Donald Trump’s Economic Policy: Consequences for Germany

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Donald Trump ; Germany; economy; USA

The economic policy announced by Donald Trump, especially the introduction of restrictions on foreign trade and expansionary fiscal policy, raise many challenges for Germany’s economic interests. In response, Germany will seek to consolidate the European Union and strengthen its position in the global economy. It will not succeed without the rapid conclusion of disputes that weaken cooperation between Member States.

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Can Development Assistance Solve the Refugee Crisis?

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: development aid; refugees; Europe; Migrations

Though the inflow of refugees to Europe has been halted in 2016, the root causes of massive migration did not disappear. One of the European Union’s methods of dealing with this challenge is to provide foreign aid to countries of origin and transit of migrants. This will not solve the refugee crisis, but might help to ease the pressure on the EU. To strengthen the impact of such assistance would require a radical increase in funding and improved cooperation with third countries. Yet attempts to subordinate development cooperation to migration policy goals will incur certain political costs and undermine the EU’s international credibility.

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The Visegrad Group from Hungary’s Perspective

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Hungary; Viktor Orbán; Central Europe

In the debate on the challenges facing Europe, Hungary’s ambition is to use the Visegrad Group (V4) to become a leader of a conservative political movement in the EU. Hungary has also strengthened its position within the group, in part due to the government’s firm position aimed at diminishing the effects of the migration crisis. The rejection of compulsory refugee quotas has unified the V4, due to which the EU might view Hungary as the driving force of the group. At the same time, the close similarity between Polish and Hungarian government positions on several issues enables Hungary to take advantage of the potential of Poland to reinforce its political position in the EU.

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The New Government in Lithuania: Prospects and Challenges

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

Keywords: Lithuania; Baltic states; government; political parties

Lithuania’s new government of the Lithuanian Union of Farmers and Greens, which won this October’s election, and the Social Democratic Party of Lithuania will be sworn in by 15 December. The coalition government may prove to be an obstacle to the implementation of the ambitious social-policy plans that were at the centre of the campaign. Lithuania’s foreign policy will not change. Indications from the victorious party about the untapped potential of Polish-Lithuanian cooperation probably are unlikely to translate into a solution to contentious issues, including those concerning the ethnic Polish minority in Lithuania. However, the change of government is another opportunity to improve these relations.

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Challenging the European Commission Decision on the Opal Gas Pipeline

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Commission; Opal Gas Pipeline

The European Commission decision permitting Gazprom to use a greater capacity of the Opal pipeline than it already does is based on the erroneous assumption that this will help enhance both security and competition in the supply of natural gas. The Commission evaluates the circumstances of the case incorrectly and ignores changes to EU energy legislation. Poland should consider challenging this decision before the EU Court of Justice, or intervening in a case already brought before the Court by private entities.

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Prospects for Relations between the EU and Belarus

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus; Eastern Europe; European Union

Due to strong ties with Russia, Belarus has limited ability to shape its own foreign policy, especially in relations with the European Union. However, the Belarusian authorities are interested in increasing cooperation with the EU, in order to reduce their dependence on Russia and convince Belarusians of the importance of their state in international politics. The European Union should use its political and economic instruments to engage the Belarusian authorities in this respect. Signing a new document on partnership and cooperation will also be important in the long term. Together with support for civil society, these steps should strengthen Belarusian statehood.

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The Future of Russia-Bulgaria Relations after the Bulgarian Presidential Election

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bulgaria; elections; presidential elections; Russia

On 13 November, Rumen Radev was elected president of Bulgaria. Supported by the opposition Bulgarian Socialist Party (BPS), he received nearly 60% of the votes in the second round. He promises to strengthen cooperation with Russia and remains sceptical of NATO reinforcement in the Black Sea region. Tsetska Tsacheva, the candidate for the ruling party Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB), received 36% of the votes. Her loss brought with it the resignation of the Boyko Borisov government. GERB announced it would not participate in a new government coalition. BPS has limited ability to form a new coalition, meaning early parliamentary elections may take place at the beginning of 2017 and could further strengthen the pro-Russian parties.

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Turkey’s New Anti-PKK Strategy: Consequences and Feasibility

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; Kurds; Russia

The Turkish government, empowered further by the state of emergency, adopted a new strategy in its fight with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The declared goal is the total liquidation of the PKK. It will contribute to deepening political polarisation at home while in the regional dimension it may lead to greater Turkish involvement in Iraq and Syria. It is also possible that the strategy will intensify the tension between Turkey and its Western allies. Both the situation in Turkey and in the region make the achievement of the Turkish politicians’ goal dubious.

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Ukraine’s Reaction to Donald Trump’s Election as U.S. President

Author(s): Piotr Kościński,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Donald Trump ; Ukraine; Eastern Europe; USA

Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president has caused anxiety among Ukraine’s authorities, who expected victory for Hillary Clinton and are concerned about her opponent’s declarations regarding possible rapprochement between Washington, D.C. and Moscow. Still, President Petro Poroshenko and his associates will seek to establish close personal contacts and cooperation with the new U.S. administration. Ukrainian opposition parties, on the other hand, will aim to take advantage of Trump’s success to increase its own popularity and discredit Poroshenko.

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Ukraine’s Reaction to Donald Trump’s Election as U.S. President

Author(s): Piotr Kościński,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Donald Trump; Ukraine,; Eastern Europe; USA

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Role of Local Governments in Development Cooperation Projects and Contact with the Polish Diaspora

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): English

Keywords: local government; development aid; development cooperation; Eastern Europe; Eastern Partnership; Moldova; Poland; Ukraine

Local authorities may be an important partner for central government in support for the Eastern Partnership countries and the Polish diaspora. However, there is need for greater local government involvement in development aid projects, and in strengthening ties with Polish diaspora on the local level, especially in connection with the Polish government policy of repatriation. Due to the small share of local governments engaged in development aid projects, their extensive network of international contacts, expertise and prior experience with foreign partners remain unused. Current regulations governing competitions for the support of the Polish diaspora do not allow local governments to apply for grants, yet it is worth changing the rules next year.

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Launch of the European Border and Coast Guard Agency

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: borders; Frontex; Migrations; Europe; European Union

On 6 October 2016, at the Bulgarian-Turkish border, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency was officially launched. Along with the new name, Frontex has been reinforced but its position in relation to the Member States has not fundamentally changed. The reformed agency will not replace national border authorities but will still support them in crisis situations. The headquarters will remain in Warsaw if an agreement between the agency and the Polish government is concluded no later than 7 April.

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The Baltic States on Brexit and EU Reforms

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

Keywords: Estonia; Latvia; Lithuania; Baltic states; European Union; United Kingdom

In shaping the future relations between the EU and the UK as it withdrawing from Union membership, the Baltic States will opt for restraint and wait for a coalition of major countries to develop. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are eurozone members and support deeper European integration in connection with the negotiations with the UK on the conditions of its exit from the Community and the future shape of relations.

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Prospects for China-CEE Relations in the 16+1 Format

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; Central Europe; economy

On 5 November 2016, the fifth summit of China and Central and Eastern Europe was held in Riga. The main topic of the meeting was the buzzword “connectivity,” which indicates building various connections or links, especially infrastructural ones. The main results of the summit were an attempt to define maritime dimension of cooperation, with special focus on the three seas initiative (the Adriatic, Baltic and Black) announced in 2015, and a decision to set up in Poland a secretariat for maritime issues. For China, the 16+1 will remain a tool for strengthening its international status and promoting the Silk Road initiative, while the others will use it to enhance their bilateral relations with China.

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Strengthening Putin’s Political Position in Russia

Author(s): Łukasz Jasina / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Vladimir Putin; Donald Trump; USA

The result of the presidential election in the United States will strengthen the political position of Russian President Vladimir Putin, both in terms of internal political power and international relations. Putin’s aim is to extend his regime’s hold on power, via re-election in 2018. He will seek to gain from the electoral defeat of foreign politicians who condemned his actions in Ukraine and Syria, and on the domestic front his party in the September parliamentary election will prove an important instrument for strengthening his power.

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Defence Policy in the European Union: Multi-Speed Security?

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP); Europe, European Union; Security

EU Member States are unlikely to reach consensus on comprehensive reform of Common Security and Defence Policy soon. What may follow will be attempts to establish a European “defence core.” That, however, would threaten NATO adaptation to the new security challenges and undermine the coherence of the EU itself. It is Poland’s interest to avoid such a scenario in favour of inclusiveness in defence cooperation in the EU. The country should also seek to confirm a balanced approach to European defence industry policy.

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Probable U.S. Policy Directions under President Trump

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Donald Trump; USA; elections; presidential elections

Donald Trump has been elected as the 45th president of the United States. He ran against the fallout from the economic crisis and for reducing U.S. involvement in solving global problems. One can expect that President Trump’s general policy will concern selective and conditional U.S. engagement abroad and abandonment of the notion of free trade. Trump’s campaign suggests a transactional approach towards foreign policy.

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Series:PISM Bulletin

Turkey: On the Road to a Presidential System

Consequences of the Assassination of the Russian Ambassador to Turkey

The Visegrad Group in Czech Policy

Donald Trump’s Economic Policy: Consequences for Germany

Can Development Assistance Solve the Refugee Crisis?

The Visegrad Group from Hungary’s Perspective

The New Government in Lithuania: Prospects and Challenges

Challenging the European Commission Decision on the Opal Gas Pipeline

Prospects for Relations between the EU and Belarus

The Future of Russia-Bulgaria Relations after the Bulgarian Presidential Election

Turkey’s New Anti-PKK Strategy: Consequences and Feasibility

Ukraine’s Reaction to Donald Trump’s Election as U.S. President

Ukraine’s Reaction to Donald Trump’s Election as U.S. President

Role of Local Governments in Development Cooperation Projects and Contact with the Polish Diaspora

Launch of the European Border and Coast Guard Agency

The Baltic States on Brexit and EU Reforms

Prospects for China-CEE Relations in the 16+1 Format

Strengthening Putin’s Political Position in Russia

Defence Policy in the European Union: Multi-Speed Security?

Probable U.S. Policy Directions under President Trump