CEEOL - Search Result

Competition under Control: A Perspective on the Application of EU Law to Nord Stream 2

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Gazprom; energetics; Europe; European Law; gas; Russia

Applying the EU’s Third Energy Package rules to Nord Stream 2 is possible, but Russia has tools to sidestep the regulations. If that happens, access to the pipeline for exporters independent of Gazprom and the Russian state would be illusory. The European Commission can prevent this scenario by ensuring the application of EU law not only by amendments to the gas directive but also through political negotiations on the status of Nord Stream 2 and ensuring Russia fulfils the agreement.

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Three Years of the Silk Road: Successes and Challenges

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; economy; Poland

Three years ago, PRC Chairman Xi Jinping announced the Silk Road initiative. China perceives its implementation to date as a success. Nevertheless, in other countries, there are doubts about the lack of a defined scope and concerns about planned or already launched projects. For Poland, Silk Road is a chance to strengthen trade and attract investment, including in infrastructure. With China yet to propose beneficial projects and considering the potential risks involved with access to critical infrastructure, the Chinese declarations should be treated carefully and expectations lowered.

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Possible Consequences of the Presidential Election in the Republic of Moldova

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Moldova; elections; presidential elections

The first direct presidential elections in Moldova in 20 years will take place on 30 October. The withdrawal of Marian Lupu, the ruling Democrats’ designated candidate, four days before the election and the transfer of his votes to the pro-EU Maia Sandu will, in fact, strengthen the position of pro-Russian Socialist Igor Dodon, who is leading in the polls. Should Dodon win, he may pull back from the prevailing idea in the country of closer ties with the European Union and instead propose strengthening relations with Russia. This would pose a challenge to the EU’s Eastern Policy, the effectiveness of which was to be confirmed by pro-Union changes in Moldova.

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Turkey after the Failed 15 July Coup: A Challenge for the EU and the U.S.

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; elections; presidential elections

Turkey’s domestic and foreign policy after the failed coup raises concerns for the European Union and the United States. Current developments in Turkey increase the political costs of Western leaders’ closer cooperation with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. At the same time, Turkey accuses its allies of hypocrisy and a lack of understanding. Thus, relations between Turkey and its Western allies remain at an impasse, which could force Turkish decision-makers to look for alternative solutions in the political and security spheres. This constitutes a challenge for the EU and the United States, especially in the face of a deterioration of relations with Russia and the migrant crisis.

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Potential Consequences if the EU Rejects CETA

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Canada; Free Trade Agreement; economy; Europe; European Union; trade

Belgium’s Wallonia region has refused to accept CETA, the EU-Canada free trade agreement negotiated for the last seven years. Although Wallonia retains the option to endorse it in the future, it is unclear when and how that may happen. The rejection of the deal will decrease both the economic and political influence of the EU in the world.

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The International Dimension of the Fight for Aleppo in Syria

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Keywords: conflict; Syria; armed forces; Middle East; Russia; Security; USA

The offensive by Bashar al-Assad’s military, supported by Russian troops, on Aleppo—Syria’s largest city—might be successful. This large-scale operation was facilitated by the improved relations between Russia and Turkey and because the United States has only limited military options at its disposal. If Aleppo falls, Assad will have control over territory inhabited by more than 60% of Syrians. The brutality of the Russian attacks in Aleppo may, however, carry a political price in the form of new EU sanctions. The clearly harsher rhetoric of Germany, France and the U.S. toward Russia also shows that these countries will not compromise on Ukraine in return for Russian concessions in Syria.

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Russia’s Military Exercises and the Prohibition on the Threat of Force

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: international law; Russia; armed forces; NATO; Security

Staging military exercises which include certain offensive elements or deployment of ballistic missiles in direct proximity of a border of another state do not constitute a violation of the prohibition of the threat of force stipulated in Article 2, Para. 4 of the Charter of the United Nations. However, their legality could be questioned if they were accompanied by a demand of a certain conduct by other entities. It would be difficult to prove that Russian exercises held close to the borders of the members of NATO constitute a violation of said prohibition or any other treaty norms. Still, NATO member states should jointly assess Russian actions as to their compliance with the legal prohibition of threats of force as an instrument of the foreign policy.

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The Future of the Free Movement of People after the Brexit Referendum

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Migrations; United Kingdom; Europe; European Union; society

The freedom of movement of people will be a key element of the negotiations on the future relations between the UK and the EU. Achieving compromise on the issue of the relationship may take years. One reason for that is that the British side does not want the quick trigger of Article 50 (TEU). The most likely scenario is to guarantee Britain “special” status in its relationship with the Union. As a result, EU citizens would have limited access to the British labour market. It’s worth considering, however, to avoid future restrictions on the right of free movement within the EU.

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Hungary’s Referendum on EU Immigrant Quotas

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Hungary; refugees; Central Europe; European Union; Migrations; society

On 2 October, a referendum will be held in Hungary about whether its citizens agree to accept the EU immigrant quota system. According to opinion polls, most Hungarians will vote against the quotas. Although there is controversy about the legal consequences of the referendum, the anticipated result will strengthen politically Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government vis-à-vis the European Commission and may influence the EU’s policy with regard to the migration crisis.

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The Stability of Uzbekistan and Central Asia after the Death of Islam Karimov

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

Keywords: Uzbekistan; Central Asia; jihadism; Security; terrorism

The first-ever change of leader of Uzbekistan is a test for its authoritarian political system built by Islam Karimov. His death in September could lead to destabilisation of the country and in the region against a background of conflict between regional clans, ethnic tension and Uzbek jihadists. Although in these circumstances Russia will find it easier to rebuild its influence in Uzbekistan, the EU and NATO should engage in dialogue with the new Uzbek leader on issues ranging from combating terrorism to deeper economic reforms and liberalisation of the country’s political system.

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Negotiating Perspectives on the EU-U.S. Trade Agreement

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: TTIP; economy; Europe; European Union; trade; USA

Trade ministers convened on 23 September for a Council of the European Union meeting to assess the state of play of the TTIP negotiations. The European Commission needs to gain political consent to enter the final stage of negotiations, should the U.S. make sufficient concessions. Because of diverse interests of EU Member States and plummeting public support, the chance of finalising talks early is slim. Forthcoming elections in the United States, France and Germany are decreasing willingness for compromise. On the other hand, halting negotiations at this stage may thwart all prospects of a free trade area between the U.S. and the EU.

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“Kavkaz 2016:” The Next Test of Russia’s Armed Forces

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: armed forces; Russia; Security

The military exercise “Kavkaz 2016” was the most important test this year of the combat readiness of the Russian Armed Forces. The scenarios carried out in recent months by Russia and Collective Security Treaty Organisation members included a clear political message addressed to neighbouring countries (namely Ukraine) and NATO members, evidenced by the location and scale of the manoeuvres. In “Kavkaz 2016,” the Russians demonstrated their ability to defend their hold on Crimea, occupied since 2014.

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EU-27 in Bratislava: The Launch of Informal Consultations on the Future of the Union

Author(s): Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka,Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; Europe; Migrations; refugees; Security; United Kingdom

The informal meeting of 27 EU heads of state and government in Bratislava was a sign of the political willingness in the EU to remove it from the impasse created by the Brexit referendum. At the meeting, the leaders presented a “roadmap” of measures to adapt the EU to the new political situation. Although proposals to set up “permanent structured cooperation” in security and defence matters still carry the risk of differentiated integration, after the meeting in Bratislava, such an outcome seems less likely than previously predicted.

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NATO Adaptation to Russia’s Nuclear Challenge

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; nuclear weapons; Russia; Security

In response to Russia’s nuclear threats, NATO has strengthened its nuclear deterrence. The Warsaw Summit aimed to send a message of resolve and readiness to face nuclear risks. The Alliance’s credibility depends, however, on its continued efforts in strategic communication, planning and exercises, and investment in maintaining effective capabilities.

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The Importance of the G20 in Shaping Global Economic Governance

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: G20; economy

The G20 summit of the leaders of the biggest economies in the world was held in Hangzhou on 4–5 September. Despite ambitious plans, it did not deliver many tangible results. This could be a sign of the low effectiveness of the G20 in achieving long-term economic goals. Nevertheless, the group has succeeded in fighting international economic crises that have touched all of its members. Given the increase in global issues and the ambitions of emerging economies, G20 summits enable discussion of current economic as well as political topics.

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France’s Position on the UK’s Post-Brexit Relationship with the EU

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; United Kingdom; Europe; European Union

France will try to use the situation following the result of the British referendum on exiting the EU to deepen integration in the sphere of EU Common Security and Defence Policy. The French government is also trying to attract international companies to move from London to Paris. In the process of shaping new relations between the EU and the UK as the latter drops its membership, France will be in favour of limiting the UK’s impact within the internal market, namely in the sphere of financial services.

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The Implications of the European Commission’s Decision in the Apple Tax Case

Author(s): Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ireland; economy; European Commission; Finances

The decision of the European Commission on the aid granted to Apple by Ireland is likely to influence the way EU Member States conduct their fiscal policies. It also sets the direction for the evolution of the common market towards tightening the enforcement of competition rules by the European Commission. On a global scale, it is a serious attempt to limit the influence of transnational corporations and reduce tax evasion. Meanwhile, it sends a warning to EU Member States helping large companies to minimise their tax burdens and undermining the principle of equality in the functioning of the single market.

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European Commission after Jonathan Hill’s Resignation

Author(s): Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Commission; eurozone; Euro; Europe; European Union

After the Brexit referendum, Lord Jonathan Hill resigned as EU commissioner of financial stability, financial services and capital markets union. The British government has proposed to replace him with Sir Julian King. Jean-Claude Juncker offered him, however, EU security issues. The financial services portfolio was granted to Valdis Dombrovskis, vice-president of the European Commission, who supervises the functioning of the euro area. Non-eurozone influence over the European Commission in the context of financial markets is in the Polish interest.

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“Polish Energy Policy by 2050” in light of the EU’s Long-term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy

Author(s): Julia Michalak / Language(s): English

Keywords: energy and climate; energetics; Europe; Poland

The new global climate agreement struck in Paris at the end of 2015 recommends its signatories to formulate long-term greenhouse gas emission development strategies by 2020. In March 2016 the European Commission outlined a plan to start preparations of the EU’s low-carbon development strategy. The Commission’s recommendation was welcomed by the European Council. Furthermore, several EU Member States are currently developing their own long-term climate and energy scenarios. In this context Poland also should start to develop its own long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategy. Ongoing work on the long-term energy scenario Polish Energy Policy by 2050, which should take into account both the EU’s and EU Member States’ climate policies, offers a good opportunity to do so.

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The Religious and Political Nature of the Pan-Orthodox Council

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Piotr Kościński / Language(s): English

Keywords: religion; Bulgaria; Georgia; Russia

The decision of the patriarchates of Antioch, Georgia, Bulgaria and Russia not to participate in the council held in Crete from 19 to 26 June means that the meeting cannot be considered “Pan-Orthodox” as intended. The four declined to attend for reasons of jurisdiction and ambition. Unofficially, the council discussed issues of the divided Ukrainian Orthodox Church and the status of the Russian Orthodox Church outside Russia. In future, Orthodoxy will be increasingly influenced by the rivalry between the Patriarchate of Constantinople, which holds the honorary presidency, and the largest Patriarchate of Moscow and All Russia.

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Series:PISM Bulletin

Competition under Control: A Perspective on the Application of EU Law to Nord Stream 2

Three Years of the Silk Road: Successes and Challenges

Possible Consequences of the Presidential Election in the Republic of Moldova

Turkey after the Failed 15 July Coup: A Challenge for the EU and the U.S.

Potential Consequences if the EU Rejects CETA

The International Dimension of the Fight for Aleppo in Syria

Russia’s Military Exercises and the Prohibition on the Threat of Force

The Future of the Free Movement of People after the Brexit Referendum

Hungary’s Referendum on EU Immigrant Quotas

The Stability of Uzbekistan and Central Asia after the Death of Islam Karimov

Negotiating Perspectives on the EU-U.S. Trade Agreement

“Kavkaz 2016:” The Next Test of Russia’s Armed Forces

EU-27 in Bratislava: The Launch of Informal Consultations on the Future of the Union

NATO Adaptation to Russia’s Nuclear Challenge

The Importance of the G20 in Shaping Global Economic Governance

France’s Position on the UK’s Post-Brexit Relationship with the EU

The Implications of the European Commission’s Decision in the Apple Tax Case

European Commission after Jonathan Hill’s Resignation

“Polish Energy Policy by 2050” in light of the EU’s Long-term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy

The Religious and Political Nature of the Pan-Orthodox Council