Series:PISM Bulletin

Åland Islands’ Significance to Security in the Baltic Sea Region

Åland Islands’ Significance to Security in the Baltic Sea Region

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: Åland Islands; Finland; Baltic Sea Region; international law; Russia; Security

Regardless of recent reports of the possible re-militarisation of the Åland Islands, Finland will strengthen its ability to defend them, upholding the international agreements defining their special status. The key to the security of the archipelago will be military cooperation between Finland and Sweden. However, to enhance the credibility of deterrence of Russia in the region, including nuclear, more frequent exercises involving NATO countries, especially the U.S. and UK, will be required.

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The Arrest of Alleged Ukrainian Saboteurs in Crimea

The Arrest of Alleged Ukrainian Saboteurs in Crimea

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Crimea; Eastern Europe; Russia; Security; Ukraine

Russia has announced that it has intercepted a group of Ukrainian saboteurs in Crimea. The FSB has accused them of planning terrorist attacks on the peninsula during Russian parliamentary elections in September 2016. The event may serve as a pretext for Russia to increase pressure on Ukraine in order to make it unilaterally implement the provisions of the Minsk Agreement. Vladimir Putin’s declaration that he will not attend a planned Normandy Four meeting may also be interpreted to mean that Russia’s aim is to test a new variant of political communication with the West.

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NATO Warsaw Summit Decisions Regarding Libya

NATO Warsaw Summit Decisions Regarding Libya

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Keywords: Libya; NATO; Africa; Arab states; Muslim countries; Muslims; North Africa

One outcome of NATO’s Warsaw Summit was a decision to strengthen the Alliance’s Southern Flank, by, among other things, declaring a readiness to act for the internal stabilisation of Libya and intensifying the anti-smuggling operation off the Libyan coast. Two positive decisions reverberated in the summit communiqué: unequivocal support for the new Libyan government and the need to coordinate NATO’s actions with the EU. The Alliance’s declarations, however, require a formal request from the Libyan authorities and specifications for Operation Sea Guardian. The Libyan government is most likely to ask individual countries for help with more urgent military tasks, such as the recent U.S. airstrikes carried out in Sirte after an official Libyan request.

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NATO-Ukraine Cooperation after the Warsaw Summit

NATO-Ukraine Cooperation after the Warsaw Summit

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; Ukraine; Eastern Europe; Security

At the Warsaw Summit, NATO decided to maintain its open-door policy towards Ukraine and to provide it with additional assistance. However, Ukraine cannot count on a membership perspective in the near future. Instead, cooperation will focus on adopting NATO standards and strengthening the military capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Alliance should help Ukraine’s government secure the country’s border with Russia, which would also allow for more security on NATO’s Eastern Flank.

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Conventional Deterrence on NATO’s Eastern Flank after the Warsaw Summit

Conventional Deterrence on NATO’s Eastern Flank after the Warsaw Summit

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; Central Europe; Security

The groundbreaking decision at the NATO Summit in Warsaw on the forward deployment of combat forces on the Eastern Flank significantly strengthens the credibility of the Alliance’s deterrence against Russian aggression. However, further adaptation to the threat posed by Russia is necessary, especially through enhancement of NATO’s ability to rapidly mobilise and deploy larger reinforcements to Central and Eastern Europe. The continuation of the Alliance’s adaptation efforts will be dependent on Allied assessments of further Russian actions, the internal dynamics in key NATO countries, and sustainment of the wider increase in defence spending that only took hold in Europe in 2015 after years of cuts.

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Slovak Presidency of the EU Council: Implications for the Visegrad Group

Slovak Presidency of the EU Council: Implications for the Visegrad Group

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Slovakia; Central Europe; EU Council presidency; Visegrad Group

Slovakia’s presidency of the Council of the European Union will be dominated by the debate on EU reform in light of Brexit. The government in Bratislava will try to link current community policy to its national interests and improvement of Slovakia’s image in Europe. Therefore, the Slovak position on possible institutional reform or energy policy may differ from the Polish stance. If the Visegrad Group has the ambition to use the Slovak presidency to strengthen its role in Europe, it will be necessary to develop a uniform approach to the key issues of the EU.

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Hillary Clinton’s Foreign Policy Stances in the Election Campaign

Hillary Clinton’s Foreign Policy Stances in the Election Campaign

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Hillary Clinton; USA; elections; North America; presidential elections

At the Democrats’ national convention, Hillary Clinton formally became the party’s nominee in the upcoming presidential election. Her potential victory would mean less radical change in U.S. foreign policy compared to those presented by Republican nominee Donald Trump. Clinton has stated the U.S. will be highly active in working to rebuild its strong leadership in the world. She also advocates the reinforcement of alliances in which NATO has a key role. As part of this political strategy is an increase in U.S. efforts towards ending the conflict in Syria, fighting ISIS and international terrorism, as well as the containment of Russia against attempts to change the international order by force and neo-imperial policies.

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China-EU Relations: Post-Summit Perspectives

China-EU Relations: Post-Summit Perspectives

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; economy; European Union

The latest EU-China summit confirmed the increasing discrepancies between the two sides. China, in protecting its own market, treats European investors unevenly. Simultaneously, the PRC is seeking unlimited access to the EU market to export products resulting from its overcapacity. The EU is concerned about subsidised Chinese exports, which may increase unemployment in Europe. There are rifts in the normative domain as well: China has not accepted an arbitration tribunal’s decision about the South China Sea. The EU, in supporting peaceful means of resolving international disputes, has acknowledged the ruling. Now more than ever, the member states should take into account the European context of relations with the PRC and coordinate their policies towards China with the EU institutions.

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The Consequences of the Failed Military Coup in Turkey

The Consequences of the Failed Military Coup in Turkey

Author(s): Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

Keywords: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan; Turkey; armed forces

The failed coup in Turkey will have serious consequences for its domestic and foreign policy. It will lead to further consolidation of power in the hands of President Recep Tayyip Erdoǧan, who will use the current situation to eliminate groups he finds to be disloyal among the prosecutor’s office, the army and elsewhere under the pretext of the fight against the Hizmet movement and its leader Fethullah Gülen, whom Erdoǧan blames for the coup attempt. In the foreign policy aspect, possible tensions in Turkey’s relations with the U.S. and the EU, which will criticise the Turkish authorities’ methods in their fight with their political opponents, may be expected. The weakening of the Euro-Atlantic ties may see Turkey move closer to other partners, including Russia.

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South China Sea Arbitration: Roots and Consequences

South China Sea Arbitration: Roots and Consequences

Author(s): Rafał Tarnogórski / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; international law

An arbitration tribunal has unanimously rejected Chinese “historical rights” to the maritime areas of the South China Sea. The award is final and although it is not binding except on the parties and with respect to this particular dispute, the European Union has acknowledged it, adding to its legal force. However, China’s uncompromising attitude on this issue may increase tensions in the region. The possibility of incidents involving the Chinese and Philippine navies is growing, but the participation of American ships is less likely. The ruling may prompt China to denounce the Convention on the Law of the Sea and decreases the likelihood it will be ratified by the United States.

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Baltic States’ Intelligence Services Report Increased Threat from Russia

Baltic States’ Intelligence Services Report Increased Threat from Russia

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

Keywords: Estonia; Latvia; Lithuania; Russia; Security

An increasing and more aggressive level of Russian espionage was noted in the latest annual assessments by the counter-intelligence services of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Particular attention should be devoted to the activity of Russia’s internal security service (FSB) in its reconnaissance of border areas and in coordination with Belorussian intelligence services. Given the military potential of Russia and Belarus, these reports require preparation for a much broader spectrum of hybrid warfare scenarios in the region. In response, the Baltic States, in addition to a NATO forward presence and all members reaching the level of 2% of their GDP spent on the military, need to invest far more resources in their intelligence services, border protection, cybersecurity and countering Russian propaganda.

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President of the Republic of Poland Andrzej Duda’s Address to the Warsaw Summit Experts’ Forum: NATO in Defence of Peace

President of the Republic of Poland Andrzej Duda’s Address to the Warsaw Summit Experts’ Forum: NATO in Defence of Peace

Author(s): Andrzej Duda / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; Duda; Poland

President of the Republic of Poland Andrzej Duda Address to the Warsaw Summit Experts’ Forum

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A “Non-euro” Zone after a Possible Brexit

A “Non-euro” Zone after a Possible Brexit

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: eurozone; economy; Euro; Europe; European Union; United Kingdom

The UK’s exit from the European Union will change the relationship between eurozone countries and those without a common currency—primarily to the detriment of the latter. They will be faced with a choice between fast-track adoption of the euro or political and economic marginalisation. The obvious political and economic risks associated with both options can be limited by stabilising the relationship between the eurozone and EU Member States without the common currency. In this context, it is worth considering strengthening the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.

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Waiting for Brexit: The Legal and Political Implications of the British EU Referendum

Waiting for Brexit: The Legal and Political Implications of the British EU Referendum

Author(s): Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka / Language(s): English

Keywords: United Kingdom; Europe; European Union

The result of the EU referendum in the UK introduces considerable uncertainty to the process of European integration as well as to British politics and the UK’s relationship with the European Union. Although the referendum is non-binding, its political consequences almost rule out the possibility of the UK not triggering the withdrawal procedure from the EU (Article 50). The difficulty in the decision to proceed is that doing so immediately commences the two-year timeframe for negotiations between the EU-27 and the departing state, which significantly reduces the UK’s chances of leaving with good conditions. The British government will therefore first seek to initiate informal talks about possible options for an agreement before invoking Article 50, although some EU states have already ruled out this approach.

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Transport and Mobility: A New Agenda for the Eastern Partnership

Transport and Mobility: A New Agenda for the Eastern Partnership

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: Eastern Partnership; Eastern Europe; European Union; Georgia; Moldova; Ukraine

The Eastern Partnership has exploited its potential, so a new offer for upgrades in transport and mobility is required for Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine. In their relations with the EU, those policy areas are characterized by a lack of uniform standards and slow advancement of cooperation on projects. To improve this situation, the EU might consider bilateral agreements with Association Agreement countries aimed at full integration with its transport market, funding more infrastructure projects, increasing opportunities for legal work in the Union for temporary migrants and ensuring better absorption in education, research and culture programmes.

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Poland in China’s Foreign Policy—Not Only Economic

Poland in China’s Foreign Policy—Not Only Economic

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; bilateral relations; economy; Poland

PRC Chairman Xi Jinping’s visit to Poland that starts on Sunday, with a plan to strengthen the countries’ “strategic partnership” as well as possible investment projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, vindicates the fact that China’s interest in Central Europe, including Poland, is increasing. Thus far, the PRC has been focusing on economic cooperation, but recently China’s political rationales behind its engagement in the region are noticeable. On the one hand, this new approach implies an opportunity for Poland, such as a chance to expand export to China, but on the other, it entails challenges that create a need for coordination of Polish foreign policy with the policies of other European partners and the United States.

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Donald Trump’s Foreign Policy Stances in the Election Campaign: Unpredictability and Neo-isolationism

Donald Trump’s Foreign Policy Stances in the Election Campaign: Unpredictability and Neo-isolationism

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Donald Trump; USA; domestic policy; elections; North America; presidential elections

Donald Trump has won Republican primaries and is likely to be named the party’s official candidate for president of the United States at its convention in July. Polls indicate that he will have formidable chances to beat the Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton. In his statements Trump suggests that he would like to limit the role of the U.S. in Europe as well as American commitment to maintaining peace in the world. Attempts to find an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin could also be expected, as well as increased tensions in relations with China and the end of the United States’ pro-​​free trade agenda.

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In the Shadow of Brexit: The City of London’s Concerns about Its Position in Global Finance

In the Shadow of Brexit: The City of London’s Concerns about Its Position in Global Finance

Author(s): Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: United Kingdom; economy; Europe; European Union; Finances

Despite the City of London’s support for the UK remaining in the EU, financiers there are arguing about the impact of Brexit on the global role of the British financial centre. Regardless of whether the United Kingdom exits the EU or not, any further increase in the City’s importance will depend primarily on its competitiveness against emerging markets and the economic situation in the UK.

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Russia Beefs Up Military Potential in the Country’s Western Areas

Russia Beefs Up Military Potential in the Country’s Western Areas

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: armed forces; Russia; armament; Security

Russia has intensively strengthened its military in the Western and Southern districts. These activities are not simply a response to the decisions of NATO, which is strengthening its Eastern Flank, but are strategic in nature. They also pose a challenge for Ukraine and Belarus as Russia has increased the number and capabilities of its combat units operating near their borders. The Russians are more frequently using the notion of military superiority to achieve political goals in Eastern Europe and this is a serious challenge for NATO.

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The Threat of Further ISIS Terrorism in Europe

The Threat of Further ISIS Terrorism in Europe

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Islamic State; terrorism; Belgium; Europe; France; Security; terrorist organisations

ISIS is threatening new terrorist attacks in Europe. These could be carried out by terrorists still on the run and previously involved in the preparation of the last Paris and Brussels attacks. Belgium and France are the most threatened, however, ISIS is also calling on its European followers to stage individual attacks. It mostly counts on the 1,500 or more of its fighters who have returned to Europe from Syria. Any individual actions would not likely match the ferocity of the attacks staged directly by ISIS in Europe between 2015 and 2016; nonetheless, the lone and spontaneous character of such acts could pose a bigger challenge to security services than well-planned attacks.

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