Series:PISM Bulletin

Granting Market Economy Status to China: Implications for the EU and Poland

Granting Market Economy Status to China: Implications for the EU and Poland

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: China

By December 2016, the European Union should decide whether to grant market economy status (MES) to China. If it does, MES would result in lower anti-dumping duties for Chinese goods and negatively affect the EU’s labour market. In turn, refusal to grant MES would worsen political and economic relations with China. Poland should support MES for China but also strive to strengthen other instruments to protect the EU market in line with the European Commission’s proposal from July this year.

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Banning the Majlis: Another Manifestation of Russian Repression of the Crimean Tatars

Banning the Majlis: Another Manifestation of Russian Repression of the Crimean Tatars

Author(s): Piotr Kościński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Crimea; Crimean Tatars; Russia; society; Ukraine

On 26 April, the Supreme Court of Crimea banned the Majlis, the representation of Crimean Tatars, recognising it as an extremist organisation. Thus, Russia has eliminated opposition activity by the Crimean Tatars, replacing the Majlis with Russian-created structures that present the façade of representing the Tatar community. The growing Russian repression means that an entire ethnic group, which was persecuted in the days of the Soviet Union, is threatened. This implies the need for support from the international community by, among other things, monitoring the actions of the Russian authorities and condemning repression.

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The Role of Iraq’s Former Regime Elements in Islamic State

The Role of Iraq’s Former Regime Elements in Islamic State

Author(s): Tomasz Berg,Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Keywords: Iraq; Islamic State; Middle East; Security; terrorism; terrorist organisations

Former Baathists—members of the Baath Party that ruled Iraq under Saddam Hussein—including army and security officers, are today the most influential figures in the Islamic State (IS). The opportunism and ideological ambiguity of the former regime elements (FRE) make them ruthless tacticians who use torture and intimidation, but they should also be seen as a potential Achilles heel of the IS. The EU, together with the United States, needs to cooperate on political intelligence in order to examine the possibilities and conditions for weakening IS by bargaining with some of its key members.

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More Market and More State: China’s Economic Development in the New Five-Year Guideline

More Market and More State: China’s Economic Development in the New Five-Year Guideline

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; East Asia; economy

A new Chinese five-year plan assumes a recalibration of the country’s economic model and the introduction of market-oriented structural reforms, which means more market and less state intervention. The aim of this approach is to reassure Chinese society that the economy is stable after the slowdown in 2015 and to help it avoid the “middle-income trap”. Under the new plan, the economy should rely on innovation and domestic consumption. Despite these declarations, China’s authorities will not end their control over the economy and investments in the production sector. This implies greater engagement of the country abroad and more efforts and pressure on the EU to grant the PRC market economy status.

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The Escalation of the Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh: Causes and Probable Course

The Escalation of the Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh: Causes and Probable Course

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

Keywords: Armenia; Azerbaijan; Nagorno-Karabakh; Caucasus; conflict; Russia

The escalation of fighting between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh was caused by Azerbaijan. The authorities there want to use the conflict to distract its population from impending economic collapse and worsening living conditions as a result of the falling price of oil. The resumption of fighting has resulted in an increase in nationalist sentiments on both sides. Russia may indeed be effective in reducing the tension on both sides of the conflict, but for internal reasons it also may be interested in further escalation.

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The Swedish Counter-Intelligence Report on Hostile Russian Activities in the Region in a Comparative Context

The Swedish Counter-Intelligence Report on Hostile Russian Activities in the Region in a Comparative Context

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: cybersecurity; Russia; Sweden; mass media; North Europe; Security

The Swedish counter-intelligence service’s latest annual assessments highlight the growing interest of Russian intelligence in Sweden’s national security issues. Soon after the publication of the unclassified version of the report, a series of cyberattacks on Swedish media took place. The increase in hostile Russian intelligence activities has been seen as connected to a public debate about the prospects for closer relations between Sweden and NATO. The U.S. perception of the Russian threats presented by Sweden’s counter-intelligence services does not deviate from public assessments by other Scandinavian countries’ assessments. This might suggest that the increased Russian activities are part of some broader strategy concerning Northern Europe.

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The Impact of Brexit on Economic Migrants in the UK: Implications for Poland and Its Citizens

The Impact of Brexit on Economic Migrants in the UK: Implications for Poland and Its Citizens

Author(s): Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Migrations; United Kingdom; employment; Europe; European Union; society

Brexit can have negative consequences for EU citizens living in the United Kingdom as well as for Britons living in other EU Member States. The scale and nature of its impact will depend on the model of future relations between the UK and the EU as well as on how quickly the latter agrees to it. Paradoxically, if Brexit reduces economic migration to the UK, it will mostly hurt the British economy and its labour market. For Poland, given its own demographic trends, the prospect of a return to the country of a number of workers is very positive.

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Russia’s Military Operation in Syria: A New Stage

Russia’s Military Operation in Syria: A New Stage

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Syria; armed forces; conflict; Middle East; Security

Russian President Vladimir Putin on 14 March announced his decision to remove part of the country’s military contingent from Syria. However, this step does not mean the end of Russia’s military presence in that country, especially since the aims of its operation in Syria have been only partially reached. Although Russia managed to strengthen Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and increase its own role in the peace process in Syria, the weakening of the so-called Islamic State failed and the intervention increased the terrorist threat to Russia itself. In return for its commitment to Syria, Russia did not obtain any concessions from the West on Ukraine, such as the lifting of economic sanctions by the U.S. and the EU.

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From “Less Europe” to a “Little Europe:” Why AfD’s Success Could Change German Policy

From “Less Europe” to a “Little Europe:” Why AfD’s Success Could Change German Policy

Author(s): Joanna Gniadek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; domestic policy; political parties; refugees

A political beneficiary of the recent European crisis is opposition party Alternative for Germany. Its sharp criticism of Chancellor Angela Merkel and its open Euroscepticism has brought it increasing popularity amongst voters, reaching now 12% or so. If AFD continues to strengthen, the German parties of the ruling coalition may revise their European policy to push forward a project of integration at different speeds. This scenario would seriously weaken the position of Poland in the EU.

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The Crisis in Libya and the Rise of Jihadism and Migration

The Crisis in Libya and the Rise of Jihadism and Migration

Author(s): Alicja Minda,Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Keywords: Libya; Migrations; terrorism; Al Qaeda; Islamic State; jihadism; Middle East and North Africa; North Africa; refugees; terrorist organisations

Five years after the downfall of Muammar Qaddafi in 2011, Libya is the second most-destabilised Arab state after Syria, with multiple local centres of power, some 2,000 militias in intertwined conflict, a growing people-smuggling market and expanding terrorist organisations, namely Al-Qaeda and the so-called Islamic State. Located just 450 km from Europe’s shores, Libya may this year become the new centre of operations for jihadist movements, elevating the terrorist threat to Europe, as well as a major migration route should the process of forming a national unity government under the auspices of the UN fail and the Eastern Mediterranean route via Turkey and Greece be shut down.

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The Scale and Importance of the Financial Assistance to Ukraine

The Scale and Importance of the Financial Assistance to Ukraine

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; aid; Eastern Europe; economy; International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Ukraine’s new government will face a challenge of continuing the process of macroeconomic stabilisation of the country. Implementing the IMF agreement to receive the next tranche of financial assistance should be a priority. International creditor support is essential in order to continue down the path of economic growth. However, the progress of reform has begun to interfere with the oligarchs’ business interest and their resistance will hinder the efforts. This conflict of interests may prevent Ukraine from accessing financial markets and make external debt service more difficult.

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Yatsenyuk’s Resignation and the Formation of Ukraine’s Next Government

Yatsenyuk’s Resignation and the Formation of Ukraine’s Next Government

Author(s): Piotr Kościński,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Arseniy Yatsenyuk; domestic policy; Eastern Europe; government

With Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s resignation, President Petro Poroshenko has entrusted the mission of creating a new cabinet to his close associate, Volodymyr Hroysman, believed to be a reformer. However, the next prime minister will be held hostage by the president’s strategy of half-hearted reform and temporary compromise with oligarchs and members of the old political system, which hinders the fight against corruption and slows economic growth. Poroshenko’s political tactics are dictated by the false diagnosis that radical reform and fighting corruption would prevent him from being re-elected in 2020. Rather, it is the slow pace and the fiasco of implementing the reform that will strengthen the antipathy of Ukrainians to the political elite, including the president, that has ruled the country since the 2014 revolution.

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The Netherlands Referendum on the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement: What Is the Effect of the “No” Vote?

The Netherlands Referendum on the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement: What Is the Effect of the “No” Vote?

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Association Agreement; Netherlands; Ukraine; European integration; European Union

In a referendum in the Kingdom of the Netherlands on 6 April, 61% of voters were against ratification of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. Their decision may delay Ukraine’s integration with the EU and will strengthen those political forces in Ukraine that oppose the country’s modernisation and cooperation with international financial institutions. Russia will use the results of the referendum to discredit the Eastern European countries’ rapprochement to the EU.

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Challenges in Putin’s Re-election Campaign

Challenges in Putin’s Re-election Campaign

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; presidential elections; Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin announced on 6 December that he would take part in the presidential election scheduled for March 2018. According to the Russian constitution, this should be the incumbent president’s last term in office. To prepare for a successor, he must increase control over the political elite and improve communication with the public. For this, he needs high voter turnout and a skilful defeat of rival interest groups seeking to access power.

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The Role of Sovereign Wealth Funds in the Global Economy: Conclusions for Poland

The Role of Sovereign Wealth Funds in the Global Economy: Conclusions for Poland

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: economy

Sovereign wealth funds (SWF) have become important investors in the global economy. However, they are not only a source of capital but also instruments of foreign policy. From Poland’s point of view, cooperation with such funds can be beneficial in, for example, the realisation of an investment, such as infrastructure, as well as in the development of a capital market. Nevertheless, some challenges related to these funds must be considered, such as the frequent lack of transparency. There is also debate in Poland about the creation of the country’s own wealth fund. It can be used for investing abroad and attracting other funds for projects in Poland.

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Renewal of Negotiations on Resolving the Transnistria Conflict

Renewal of Negotiations on Resolving the Transnistria Conflict

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Transnistria; Eastern Europe; Moldova; Russia

On 27–28 November, after a year and a half break, international talks on a resolution to the Transnistria conflict took place in Vienna. They were preceded by the signing of technical agreements facilitating everyday life for the inhabitants of the region which includes the Republic of Moldova and separatist Transnistria. Although the agreements do not guarantee a political settlement is forthcoming, their implementation may build trust between the parties. At the same time, Russia can use them to demonstrate it is an effective guarantor of peace in the post-Soviet area.

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The Importance to Poland of Latin American Regional Cooperation Initiatives

The Importance to Poland of Latin American Regional Cooperation Initiatives

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Latin America; Mercosur; economy; South America; trade

Regional cooperation initiatives are one of Latin American countries’ main policy tools. They have served to foster the development of member states, build common trust, and strengthen their international position. For Poland, the significance of some of the groupings mainly results from their status as EU partners. The main blocs are Mercosur and the Pacific Alliance—both include Poland’s main trading partners in the region—as well as the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), which represents the whole region in strategic partnership with the EU.

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The U.S. National Security Strategy: The Trump Administration’s Approach

The U.S. National Security Strategy: The Trump Administration’s Approach

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Bartosz Wiśniewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Donald Trump; Security

The U.S. is departing from the assumption that American security and prosperity can be achieved through cooperation and engagement with other international actors. It is an adjustment to its rivalry with Russia and China, in which it finds at stake not so much the protection of the current international order but rather this order’s adaptation to American needs and interests. The Trump administration intends to achieve this goal by strengthening the military domination of the United States and by focusing on challenges from state actors, although the catalogue of threats still includes international terrorism and weapons of mass destruction.

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FIFA World Cup in Russia: Internal and International Aspects

FIFA World Cup in Russia: Internal and International Aspects

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; FIFA

With the International Olympic Committee excluding the Russian national team from the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea, the importance for Russia’s authorities of the FIFA World Cup is increasing. World Cup competition will be held from 14 June to 15 July 2018. The tournament will be used in Russia’s internal politics, especially in the presidential campaign, and in relations with other countries to strengthen bilateral contacts and portray Russia as a country with a strong international position.

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Military Dimension of the New U.S. and NATO Afghanistan Strategy

Military Dimension of the New U.S. and NATO Afghanistan Strategy

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Afghanistan; NATO; Security; USA

According to the new U.S. strategy for Afghanistan, winter will not stop intensified operations against the Taliban. With the increased U.S. and NATO troop level, Afghan forces will switch from defensive to offensive activities. Only stronger military pressure and other forms of influence taken together might impel the Taliban to negotiate with the government in Kabul. The political effects of the new strategy should be expected only in a longer-term perspective.

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