Series:PISM Bulletin

The DCFTA’s Impact on the Modernisation of Ukraine’s Economy

The DCFTA’s Impact on the Modernisation of Ukraine’s Economy

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Eastern Europe; economy; European Union; Free Trade Agreement; trade

To make full use of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area with the EU, it will not be enough for Ukraine to implement EU norms and technical standards. The Ukrainian government should create transparent and stable regulations and simplify the business environment. In this respect, legislative approximation in sectors covered by the DCFTA will be necessary. At the same time, it will be essential that the EU financial support provided to Ukraine is spent effectively to minimise, at least partially, the high cost of modernisation.

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EU Expert Missions to the Eastern Partnership Region: Time for Change

EU Expert Missions to the Eastern Partnership Region: Time for Change

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: Eastern Partnership; Armenia; Eastern Europe; European Union; Georgia; Moldova; neighbourhood policy; Ukraine

The EU pursues a number of advisory programmes in neighbouring countries with the aim to help their government administrations implement mutually agreed reforms. The experience of the Eastern Partnership countries shows these programmes face many limits. Although it is difficult for the EU to modernise public administration in this region, its advisory services might be improved by introducing more flexible procedures, multiannual training, and more logistical support.

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Political Consequences of the Parliamentary Elections in Slovakia

Political Consequences of the Parliamentary Elections in Slovakia

Author(s): Dariusz Kałan / Language(s): English

Keywords: Slovakia; Central Europe; domestic policy; elections; parliamentary elections; political parties

The poor result of the ruling party SMER–SD, the presence in the new parliament of a party referring to fascist symbols, and the overall fragmentation of parliament make the creation of a stable coalition government in Slovakia unlikely. The elections revealed Slovaks’ fatigue with traditional parties, which in the last decade have not been able to meet economic expectations, improve the quality of public services or outline positive plans for future development. Less important, as it turned out, was Prime Minister Robert Fico's anti-immigrant campaign, which contributed more to the success of radicals than of SMER–SD. Regardless of which party forms the government, the existing foreign policy priorities of Slovakia will probably not change, including its good neighbourly relations with Poland.

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Export Promotion Agency: The Experience of Selected European Countries

Export Promotion Agency: The Experience of Selected European Countries

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: trade; Czech Republic; economy; Hungary; Poland; United Kingdom

To enhance the presence of Polish companies in international markets, a coherent and efficient system of government support is needed. Much of it can be through the Export Promotion Agency, which the Polish government plans to create. In this context, it is worth surveying the experience of other countries, including the UK, Hungary and Czech Republic, where this kind of institution already exists and adjust the solutions to be effective with Polish realities.

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Poroshenko’s Risky Play with Ukraine’s Government

Poroshenko’s Risky Play with Ukraine’s Government

Author(s): Piotr Kościński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Arseniy Yatsenyuk; domestic policy; Eastern Europe; government; Petro Poroshenko; political parties; Yulia Tymoshenko

The Ukrainian parliament on 16 February did not back a vote of no confidence in the government. Voting was conducted at the request of the two parties of the ruling coalition after sharp criticism by President Petro Poroshenko of Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. Paradoxically, however, the government was able to remain in place mainly because, despite the criticism, a group of deputies in the president’s camp and some opposition members did not vote. After the vote, two parties left the coalition—Batkivshchyna and Samopomich, leaving the future of the cabinet in question. A larger power struggle not only could stop reforms in the country but carry the risk of large public protests, which would be dangerous for Ukraine.

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The Oligarchs Are Becoming Stronger in Ukraine

The Oligarchs Are Becoming Stronger in Ukraine

Author(s): Piotr Kościński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; domestic policy; Eastern Europe; government; Petro Poroshenko; society

Despite repeated attempts to undertake reforms aimed at increasing the transparency of the state, Ukraine remains a country in which oligarchs play a key and the negative role. They control a significant part of industry and the most important media. The most recent local elections showed that they are building their own political centres and creating new groups, and the vote of no confidence against Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s government reveals they also control part of parliament as well. The dispute between President Petro Poroshenko and leading oligarch Igor Kolomoisky, a businessman supporting him, is becoming increasingly evident. This can result in the destabilisation of the political scene, and in the long run lead to the oligarchic system becoming embedded. The EU should make support for Ukraine a priority, pushing above all for action over rhetoric in the fight against corruption (reform of the judiciary, the police and the public procurement system), and should monitor the actions of the authorities in Kyiv.

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The Meeting between Pope Francis and Patriarch Kirill, and Its Political Significance for Ukraine and Russia

The Meeting between Pope Francis and Patriarch Kirill, and Its Political Significance for Ukraine and Russia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: religion; Eastern Europe; Europe; Russia; society

The meeting between the Pope and the Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia, which took place on 12 February in Havana, has a special religious and political meaning. Pope Francis and Patriarch Kirill signed a joint statement in which they referred, among other things, to current events in the world, mainly to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as the migration crisis and the persecution of Christians. The points concerning the political situation in Ukraine and hopes for the unification of the factions of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church were considered controversial, and were interpreted as support of the Catholic Church for Russian policy in Ukraine. However, the declaration should be used by the Holy See to facilitate the functioning of the Catholic Church, in Russia as well as in Crimea and Donbas.

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The South Caucasus in the Shadow of the Russian-Turkish Crisis

The South Caucasus in the Shadow of the Russian-Turkish Crisis

Author(s): Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

Keywords: Caucasus, Armenia; Azerbaijan; conflict; Georgia; Russia; Security; Syria; Turkey

The conflict between Turkey and Russia due to their contradictory interests in the Middle East deepens the division of the South Caucasus into two blocks. As a result, Turkey strengthens its political and economic cooperation with Georgia and Azerbaijan while Russia increases military cooperation with Armenia. This situation, although it poses security challenges, could paradoxically be beneficial for the Georgian and Azerbaijani economies, including through the development of trade with Turkey. The EU and Turkey should coordinate their policies towards the Caucasus, including issues such as frozen conflicts, regional economic integration and the development of energy projects.

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The Domino Effect: Impact of the Global Climate Agreement on Post-2020 EU Emissions Trading Scheme Reform

The Domino Effect: Impact of the Global Climate Agreement on Post-2020 EU Emissions Trading Scheme Reform

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Julia Michalak / Language(s): English

Keywords: energy and climate; climate; Europe; Poland

At the end of 2015 a landmark climate accord was adopted at the COP21 climate summit in Paris. The Paris Agreement may significantly impact the ongoing debate about the post-2020 reform of the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme, proposed by the European Commission in mid-2015. To reflect the Paris Agreement in the EU’s domestic policies, some Member States may advocate strengthening the Commission’s proposal. In such a scenario the Polish government should call for an increase of the Modernisation Fund and auction allowance redistribution rules, supporting energy transition in lower-income Member States.

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Counterterrorism Fever in the V4 and Guidance for Poland

Counterterrorism Fever in the V4 and Guidance for Poland

Author(s): Dariusz Kałan / Language(s): English

Keywords: Central Europe; terrorism; Hungary; Poland; Security; Slovakia; Visegrad Group

Central Europe is less threatened by jihadist terrorism than Western Europe. Nonetheless, Slovakia and Hungary are currently rushing new counterterrorism legislative proposals. Their far-reaching character, presenting the respective security services and governments with new counterterrorism powers, should not only be regarded as a preventive measure developed in an age of an increased threat of terrorism in the EU but also as an expression of the authorities’ desire to gain political capital from the fear of immigrants. Poland is preparing its own counterterrorism bill but should not copy the solutions adopted by its southern partners. At the same time, it should increase its efforts to reform the existing counterterrorism system so that it adequately responds to the threat level in the region.

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The Potential for Polish-Lithuanian Cooperation in Security

The Potential for Polish-Lithuanian Cooperation in Security

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

Keywords: armed forces; Lithuania; Poland; Baltic Sea Region; Central Europe; international security; NATO; Russia; Security

Poland and Lithuania, regardless of tensions related to the situation of the Polish minority, are intensifying security sector cooperation. The main reason is the Ukraine-Russia conflict, which changed the geopolitical conditions in the region. A notable example of such cooperation is the creation of the Poland-Lithuania-Ukraine brigade, which will reach full operational capability in 2017. Poland and Lithuania also have common interests concerning the upcoming NATO summit in Warsaw, especially with regard to strengthening the Alliance's presence on the eastern flank. However, this will require the involvement of both countries in other dimensions of NATO activity.

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Poland’s Campaign for a Non-Permanent Seat on the UN Security Council

Poland’s Campaign for a Non-Permanent Seat on the UN Security Council

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: United Nations Security Council; Bulgaria; Central Europe; elections; international organisations; Poland; United Nations

Poland is bidding against Bulgaria for a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council in the 2018 to 2019 term. This position would allow Poland to influence the discussion on global security and potential risks as well as being an opportunity to promote Poland on the global scene. To win the non-permanent seat, Poland should intensify the campaign, build a cohesive image for international partners and prepare for more than one round of voting.

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EU Winter Gas Package: The Next Phase of the Struggle to Strengthen Energy Resilience

EU Winter Gas Package: The Next Phase of the Struggle to Strengthen Energy Resilience

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Witold Gruszczyński,Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Keywords: gas; energetics; energy security; Europe; European Union; natural gas - LNG

In February 2016, the European Commission will present the Winter Gas Package, which is a real opportunity to strengthen the security of European gas consumers. The coming months will bring intense negotiations on essential details of documents that will determine the EU’s resilience to disruptions of gas supplies and influence the EU’s bargaining power in relation to third countries. The EC’s proposal contains several points included in Poland’s 2014 energy union concept, and hence, the Polish administration should be actively involved in shaping the contents of the package.

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Polish Local Government Attitudes towards the Refugee Crisis

Polish Local Government Attitudes towards the Refugee Crisis

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: local government; refugees; Migrations; Poland; society

Despite the many unknowns, including the date of arrival, funding for and characteristics of the refugees who will come to Poland in 2016 and 2017, it is certain that primary responsibility for their integration into Polish society will lie with local authorities. Key issues associated with this will be in the legal and funding areas, and regardless of when the refugees arrive, broad and swift inclusion of social partners and local government in preparations will maximise the chance that the integration process will run smoothly and in the interests of local communities and Poland as a whole.

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Russia’s Ambitions in Europe’s Nuclear Energy Sector: A Test of Credibility

Russia’s Ambitions in Europe’s Nuclear Energy Sector: A Test of Credibility

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Keywords: nuclear energy; Russia; energetics

For Rosatom, the Russian state nuclear company, exemplary cooperation with EU countries is crucial. Because the EU’s nuclear sector is well-structured, the use of Rosatom to influence the bloc geopolitically is limited, and thus its presence on the prestigious EU market primarily serves to construct a positive image of the company. EU Member States should ensure that the nuclear relationship with Russia is also characterised by reciprocity.

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Growing Risk of a “Fixit:” The Finnish Eurozone Dilemma

Growing Risk of a “Fixit:” The Finnish Eurozone Dilemma

Author(s): Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: eurozone; Finland; economy; Euro; Europe; European Union

Greece is no longer the only country at risk of leaving the eurozone. A referendum on abandoning the common currency is likely to appear in the coming years in Finland, whose economy is mired in crisis. The euro is not the reason for the recession, however, the currency union’s framework lacks monetary policy tools. Even so, there is no guarantee that re-adopting its own currency would help Finland.

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Afghanistan: New Opportunities for Talks with the Taliban

Afghanistan: New Opportunities for Talks with the Taliban

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Afghanistan; international security; ISAF - International Security Assistance Force; NATO; Security

Since the end of the ISAF mission and new territorial gains by the Afghan Taliban, there has been a visible intensification of diplomatic efforts to convince rebels to enter into peace talks with the government in Kabul. Although the Taliban’s official conditions are still unrealistic, a number of new factors suggest negotiations are possible.

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Taiwan Elections: Implications for Its Ties with the Mainland and Internationally

Taiwan Elections: Implications for Its Ties with the Mainland and Internationally

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; Taiwan; East Asia; elections; parliamentary elections; presidential elections

In presidential and parliamentary elections in Taiwan on 16 January, the chairwoman of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Tsai Ing-wen, stands a great chance to be elected president and the DPP may take over the parliament, the Legislative Yuan. Tsai’s victory might weaken cross-strait ties. There is also the possibility for less stability in the Taiwan Strait. The uncertainty about cross-strait relations may narrow the room for launching talks about an EU-Taiwan investment agreement.

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The Dutch EU Presidency: Between Seeking Unity and Policy Effectiveness

The Dutch EU Presidency: Between Seeking Unity and Policy Effectiveness

Author(s): Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Netherlands; EU Council presidency; Europe; European Union

The Netherlands, which has just taken over the European Union’s rotating presidency, will have to urgently seek unity among the Member States on several interconnected fronts to deliver effective solutions to existential EU crises. Although the Netherlands is in a good position to take on this challenging task, it might find itself torn between acting as an honest broker and the desire to solve problems in a smaller group. This choice might define the evolution of the EU in the direction of more flexible integration.

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The Bothersome Success of the Minimum Wage: The German Labour Market Faces the Refugee Crisis

The Bothersome Success of the Minimum Wage: The German Labour Market Faces the Refugee Crisis

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; economy; Migrations; refugees; society

The pressure caused by the refugee crisis in Germany has not skipped past the minimum wage. Abolition of the government’s flagship social project, however, is unlikely; rather to be expected are exceptions for asylum seekers and additional vocational activation programs. German ideas in this area have a chance to become benchmarks for EU members struggling with similar issues, as well as starting points for “enhanced cooperation” on policies of integration of refugees.

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