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Perilous Changes in Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Policy

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Keywords: Saudi Arabia; Middle East

Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman is solidifying his position and changes to the foreign policy of Saudi Arabia. His main objective is the forceful consolidation of the Arab camp against Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood. Key decisions of Saudi foreign policy—the military intervention in Yemen, imposition of a blockade on Qatar, and pressure on the Lebanese government—have proven counterproductive. The continuation of this ill-advised policy is neither conducive towards the stability of the Middle East, nor to the Saudi posture and ability to form alliances.

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Three Months of Russian Intervention in Syria: The Military and Political Implications

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: armed forces; Russia; conflict; Middle East; Security; Syria

As Russia’s military operation in Syria passes the three-month mark, the milestone demonstrates not only the growing capacity of the country’s expeditionary forces (aviation in particular) but also highlights their weaknesses, primarily logistical problems and the lack of equipment. On one hand, such long-term actions will be a growing challenge to Russia’s finances, but for its military they are an opportunity to test equipment and new types of weapons. Russia’s engagement in Syria has not reduced its involvement in Ukraine. At the same time, the success of its military operations in Syria are important because they are intended to strengthen Russia’s position during any peace talks on Syria, which may have a secondary effect of increasing its importance, not only in the Middle East but also in the international arena.

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Poland on the UN Security Council

Author(s): Rafał Tarnogórski,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: United Nations Security Council; Poland

The main issues facing the UN Security Council (UNSC) are North Korea’s nuclear programme, the status of Jerusalem, and Russian aggression in Ukraine. Analysis of UNSC member positions indicates several potential sources of conflict but also possible fields of cooperation. Poland must prepare to act in these areas to achieve its goals effectively.

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Between Bonn and Katowice: The Challenges in Global Climate Negotiations

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: climate

The global climate summit in Bonn (COP23) in November 2017 was supposed to bring compromise close on areas such as rules for monitoring national climate actions. The universality of these actions, that is, covering both developed and developing countries, was one of the main ideas of the Paris Agreement. In Bonn, however, the divisions between the parties were again made stark, making it difficult to reach compromise. For Poland, as host of the next climate summit (COP24) in December 2018 in Katowice, finalising these negotiations will be a top priority.

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China-South Korea Relations: An Attempt to Break the Deadlock

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: South Korea; China; North Korea; Security

The South Korean president’s visit to China (13–16 December) sprung from a mutual willingness to improve bilateral relations. China opposes the deployment of the U.S. THAAD missile-defence system, an issue that remains a sticking point in Sino-South Korea ties. Their respective North Korea policy also has contributed to the deteriorating bilateral relations. The inability to resolve that issue may lead to diplomatic engagement of countries outside the region, including Poland, to try to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

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Cross-Border Cooperation: An Opportunity to Strengthen the Eastern Partnership

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Eastern Partnership; Belarus; local government; Poland; Ukraine

One of the main conclusions of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) summit, which took place on 24 November in Brussels, is the need for greater concentration on interpersonal relations. One cooperation platform mentioned during the summit to strengthen ties between EU and EaP societies and supporting the development of local democracy is cross-border cooperation. Previous experience from the Poland-Belarus-Ukraine-EU programme can be used to support contacts between EaP regions.

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Final Stretch to France’s 2017 Presidential Elections: The Entangled Risks of Hollande’s “Republican Front”

Author(s): Nathan Dufour / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; elections; Europe; François Hollande; presidential elections

One month after the November Paris’ attacks, President François Hollande’s security turn and national unity call–with the so-called Republican Front–seems to have succeeded in preventing Marine Le Pen’s far-right party (Front National, or FN) from winning the regional elections. However, this strategy only papered over the reasons for the continuous rise in popularity of FN and increases the uncertainty on the way to the 2017 presidential elections. Moreover, the implementation of Hollande’s strategy risks pushing him into an increasingly confrontational stance with Brussels if no quick compromises can be found on security and economic issues.

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Return of the Spectre of a Grexit: The Effects of the Weakening Mandate for Tsipras’ Reform Programme

Author(s): Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Energy Union; Aleksis Tsipras; economic policy; Europe; Greece

Although the Greek parliament has so far rapidly voted on laws related to a third financial aid package, the risk of slowing the process, or in the worst case, even stopping it is increasing. This in turn may lead to a renewed discussion in the eurozone about revising the assistance package for Greece or about the growing threat of a Grexit.

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The European Border and Coast Guard: Potentials and Risks

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: borders; Europe; European Union; Migrations; Schengen Area

The establishment of an EU border service is a step towards community control of border management in the Schengen zone. Whilst such an arrangement seems beneficial in terms of increasing the efficiency of border control, it is controversial because it interferes with the rights of the Member States.

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The Historic Paris Climate Agreement and Its Significance for Poland and the EU

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: climate; economy

On 12 December 2015 in Paris, and for the first time in almost 20 years, the world’s countries, some 195 in total, reached a brokered deal with the objective to prevent irreversible climate change. Two key provisions of the agreement are its global scope, requiring all 195 countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and the marked absence of an endpoint within the treaty. These provisions help create a system of coordination of global efforts against climate change, ending the EU’s isolation on the issue. This in turn will reduce the negative consequences of its climate change policy on the competitiveness of the overall European and Polish economies.

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New Phase in Russia’s Relations with Iran: Not Only Syria, Not Only Opportunism

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Iran; Russia; conflict; international security; Middle East; Security; Syria

The final nuclear deal between the P5+1 and Iran has not resulted in worsening relations or a renewal of the historical rivalry between Moscow and Tehran. Russia and Iran have common interests in and outside Syria, namely strengthening the areas of bilateral diplomatic, military and economic cooperation. The visit by Russia’s president to Iran and his participation in the Gas Exporting Countries Forum in Tehran on 23 November 2015, suggest a new phase in Russia’s relations with Iran, which, though, might have a negative impact on the interests of the West, Turkey and Arab countries.

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The Case of Rustavi-2 TV: Escalation of the Conflict between Government and Opposition in Georgia

Author(s): Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

Keywords: Georgia; Caucasus; domestic policy; elections; mass media; parliamentary elections

A series of court judgments relating to the ownership of private television station Rustavi-2 has led to an escalation of the conflict between the government and opposition in Georgia. For the opposition United National Movement (UNM), the rulings may mean restrictions on its freedom to present its views in media before parliamentary elections scheduled for the second half of 2016. On the other hand, by influencing the courts and media, the governing Georgian Dream is making the same mistakes that led to UNM’s loss of power. Without interfering in the dispute between the government and opposition, the EU should exert pressure on the authorities in Tbilisi to accelerate the reform of judiciary.

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Indonesia’s Potential as a Stronger Partner of Poland in Asia

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Indonesia; Asia and Pacific; economy; education

This year, Poland celebrates the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations with Indonesia, one of the rising powers in Asia, a stable democracy, and characterised by its high pace of economic growth. Although trade has grown in recent years, the potential of economic as well as political cooperation remains untapped. To improve this situation, enhanced cooperation on the provincial level can be effective, as Indonesia is highly decentralised. Moreover, a visit by high-level Polish officials in Indonesia would support Polish businesses seeking to enter this prospective, but difficult market.

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Revision of European Neighbourhood Policy: Half-Hearted Reform

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: neighbourhood policy; Association Agreement; Europe, European Union; European Union foreign policy; Free Trade Agreement

Proposals to improve EU neighbourhood policy are insufficiently ambitious as they do not involve many improvements on the old approach. Implementation of these enhancements would require alignment of financial assistance with strategy goals and reform of the budget support mechanism. The EU should also help associated countries implement Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area agreements.

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Ukraine: A DCFTA after All

Author(s): Piotr Kościński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Eastern Europe; economy; Free Trade Agreement; trade

The EU agreement with Ukraine on a free trade zone, or DCFTA, will come into force on 1 January 2016. The result, though, will not produce immediate economic benefits for Ukraine and will also carry the previously announced sanctions on Ukraine by Russia, including an embargo on food imports. In the long term, however, the DCFTA will allow Ukraine to accept the majority of the acquis communautaire and further its rapprochement with the EU, as well as to improve standards and the competitiveness of the economy. Ukrainian authorities need political and financial support from the EU during the first phase of the DCFTA’s implementation, especially in countering the Russian sanctions.

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Russian Foreign Fighters: Time for Syria?

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Syria

Foreign fighters have been successfully utilised by Russia during the conflict in Ukraine, where they formed a key element of the separatist forces. Due to Russia’s escalating involvement in Syria, and its Ukraine-based foreign fighters’ often and vocally professed desire to fight against the Islamic State, one could assume that Moscow, while officially denying rumours of being involved in ground operations in Syria, may not shy away from deploying such fighters there. However, this will carry risks far greater than those in Ukraine, and could yield negative consequences for Russia.

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Negotiating Challenges during the Paris Climate Conference

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Paris Climate Conference; climate policy

On 30 November, world leaders will gather in Paris for the 21st Conference of the Parties to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, in the hope of reaching a new global deal. There is positive political momentum for an agreement on how to tackle climate change, but the pressure on negotiators is growing and the thorniest issues, such as financing, compliance, and long-term mitigation and adaptation targets are still to be addressed. For the EU, only an ambitious agreement at COP 21 would be beneficial, whereas for Poland, any world-wide agreement can bring short-term political and economic benefits.

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Viktor Orbán’s Fourth Government at the Halfway Point

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Viktor Orbán; government; elections; European Policy; European Union;

The opposition’s good results in the 2019 local elections did not weaken the government of Viktor Orbán. On the European stage, the extended suspension of the ruling party Fidesz’s membership in the European People’s Party (EPP) allowed it to avoid an escalation of its dispute with the EPP. Due to the foreseen economic slowdown, the government will focus in the remaining two years until the election on the permanent mobilisation of its electorate. In its European policy, it is preparing for both a split with the EPP and remaining in the EU mainstream. Similar views of Hungary and France on the EU’s future relations with Russia and the U.S. facilitate the fulfilment of the second scenario.

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Viktor Orbán’s Fourth Government at the Halfway Point

Czwarty rząd Viktora Orbána na półmetku

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Viktor Orbán; government; elections; European Policy; European Union;

Dobry wynik opozycji w wyborach samorządowych w 2019 r. nie osłabił rządu Viktora Orbána. Na scenie europejskiej przedłużenie zawieszenia w prawach członka w Europejskiej Partii Ludowej (EPL) pozwoliło Fideszowi uniknąć eskalacji sporu z tą partią. W związku z prognozą spowolnienia gospodarczego w dwóch latach pozostałych do wyborów rząd skupi się na ciągłej mobilizacji swojego elektoratu. W polityce europejskiej przygotowuje się zarówno na zerwanie z EPL, jak i na pozostanie w mainstreamie UE. Zbieżności w spojrzeniu Węgier i Francji m.in. na przyszłość stosunków UE z Rosją czy USA ułatwiają realizację drugiego scenariusza.

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Coronavirus Pandemic: Consequences for NATO

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Coronavirus pandemic; NATO; crisis-management mechanisms; reducing public supports for the Alliance; collective defence mission;

For several decades, NATO has been developing crisis-management mechanisms to cope with natural disasters, humanitarian crises, and pandemics. However, during the first weeks of the coronavirus pandemic, the Alliance decided to focus on maintaining its capacity to defend territory and deter adversaries. Although this is NATO’s primary task, the lack of a visible response to the crisis may reduce public support for the Alliance, diminish its significance, and ultimately weaken its ability to conduct its collective defence mission.

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Series:PISM Bulletin

Perilous Changes in Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Policy

Three Months of Russian Intervention in Syria: The Military and Political Implications

Poland on the UN Security Council

Between Bonn and Katowice: The Challenges in Global Climate Negotiations

China-South Korea Relations: An Attempt to Break the Deadlock

Cross-Border Cooperation: An Opportunity to Strengthen the Eastern Partnership

Final Stretch to France’s 2017 Presidential Elections: The Entangled Risks of Hollande’s “Republican Front”

Return of the Spectre of a Grexit: The Effects of the Weakening Mandate for Tsipras’ Reform Programme

The European Border and Coast Guard: Potentials and Risks

The Historic Paris Climate Agreement and Its Significance for Poland and the EU

New Phase in Russia’s Relations with Iran: Not Only Syria, Not Only Opportunism

The Case of Rustavi-2 TV: Escalation of the Conflict between Government and Opposition in Georgia

Indonesia’s Potential as a Stronger Partner of Poland in Asia

Revision of European Neighbourhood Policy: Half-Hearted Reform

Ukraine: A DCFTA after All

Russian Foreign Fighters: Time for Syria?

Negotiating Challenges during the Paris Climate Conference

Viktor Orbán’s Fourth Government at the Halfway Point

Czwarty rząd Viktora Orbána na półmetku

Coronavirus Pandemic: Consequences for NATO