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After the National People’s Congress: China’s Economic Challenges and Cooperation with Russia

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; economy; policy; challenges; Russia; cooperation;

During the annual session of the National People’s Congress (NPC), which ended on 11 March, the Chinese authorities confirmed a downgrade of 2022 economic growth forecasts, as well as plans to develop social programmes for the middle class. In terms of foreign policy, cooperation with Russia is of key importance for China. China’s position means that the EU and the U.S. cannot count on it to support their position in the context of the war in Ukraine, or regarding an end to economic controversies or resolving human rights issues.

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Elections in Hungary Overshadowed by Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; aggression; Hungary; elections;

Growing support for Fidesz at the end of the campaign proves the ruling party has effectively mobilised undecided voters before the elections on 3 April. It has better presented its interpretation of the Russian aggression against Ukraine and its significance for Hungary than the united opposition, as the war has become the main topic of the campaign on both sides. Regardless of the outcome, the new government will face serious challenges in its economy and others related to Hungary’s dependence on Russia.

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European Commission Recommends Including Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia in EU Enlargement Policy

Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Moldova; Georgia; EC; European Commission; EU; enlargement policy;

On 17 June, the European Commission (EC) recommended granting Ukraine and Moldova candidate status for EU membership and an accession perspective for Georgia. A positive decision of the European Council at the summit on 23-24 June is likely after the visit to Ukraine of the leaders of France and Germany, among others. They joined the Central European countries in expressing their support for candidate status for Ukraine. Poland, which supports EU enlargement in the Balkans as well as bringing its eastern neighbours closer to the EU, has the competence to actively engage in this policy in its new, eastern dimension.

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French Politics after the Second Round of Parliamentary Elections

Author(s): Amanda Dziubińska / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; politics; parliamentary elections; second round;

President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition fell well short of an absolute majority in the National Assembly (289 required of the chamber’s 577 seats). For both radical right-wing and left-wing voters, the limitation of the president’s power was of more importance than ideological differences. As a result, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally saw an unprecedented result, becoming the main opposition party. In the most likely scenario of a coalition with Republicans or moderate left and right politicians, the presidential camp, as the greatest political force in the Assembly, will seek to continue the current foreign policy and retain its representatives in key ministries.

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Sahel States Opt for Negotiations with Jihadists

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: Sahel States; Jihadists; negotiations;

The inability of local and international forces to defeat the jihadists in the Sahel region has led to grassroots initiatives to reach an understanding with them. In Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, preparations are also underway for similar talks by governments, with the hope of including some extremists in the political mainstream. This may help with stabilising the volatile situation, but it carries the risk of strengthening the influence of the radicals.

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Challenges for the Fifth Government of Viktor Orbán

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Hungary; government; Viktor Orban; challenges;

The goal of the new Hungarian government is to reduce the negative effects of overlapping crises that could lead to social discontent. To this end, it intends to lower the budget deficit by introducing new taxes, maintain low energy prices using Russian oil and gas, and regulate food prices. Although access to money from the EU’s reconstruction fund would improve the condition of public finances, the authorities are not willing to meet the European Commission’s conditions. This will result in Hungary’s growing indebtedness and isolation within the EU.

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Germany in the Shadow of War and Inflation: Six Months of the Scholz Government

Author(s): Łukasz Jasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; war; Russia; Ukraine; governance;

The coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), The Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) came to power with the intention of undertaking significant economic and social reforms. Their ambitious plans were symbolised by the title of the coalition agreement, “Daring to Make More Progress”. The war in Ukraine, though, has forced the government to take revolutionary steps in the areas of defence and energy security. The Chancellor’s vagueness about the supply of weapons to Ukraine has been causing his SPD’s ratings to fall and The Greens’ popularity to rise. To reverse this trend, the chancellor will pursue further social reforms.

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Opportunities and Challenges of South Korea’s Foreign Policy under Yoon Suk-yeol

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: South Korea; Yoon Suk-yeol; USA; foreign policy;

The new president of South Korea, Yoon Suk-yeol, intends to lean his foreign policy on close relations with the U.S. He wants to replicate the tough attitude of earlier conservative governments towards North Korea, focusing primarily on deterrence. Yoon’s presidency offers an opportunity to improve relations with Japan. The credibility test of the new government, which declares stronger cooperation with the West, will be more determined policy towards China and Russia, increased support for Ukraine, and deepened cooperation with NATO and its members, including Poland.

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Biogases: An Element of EU Energy Security

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak,Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; energy security; biogases; policy;

The development of European biogas is one way to make the EU independent of Russian gas supplies. It also would make a significant contribution to the implementation of the ideas underpinning the European Green Deal, including the energy transition and circular economy. The current limitations on the growth of this sector, such as financing issues, have become less important in the face of the consequences of the war in Ukraine. From Poland’s perspective, it is important to maximise the benefits for Polish businesses when developing the EU’s biogas potential.

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New EU Initiatives for Space Security

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; initiatives; space security; foreign policy;

The EU plans to build a secure satellite-based connectivity system and to develop rules for space traffic management. This is a response to the increasing dependence of EU Member State societies, economies, and services on space technologies. The EU initiatives are expected to increase the stability of in-orbit infrastructure operation as well as improve connectivity on Earth. Their effective implementation will depend on the use of modern technological solutions, as well as the promotion of European standards on a global scale.

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Russia on NATO Enlargement to Sweden and Finland

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; Russia; Sweden; Finland; enlargement;

On 18 May, Sweden and Finland applied to join NATO. Russia’s first reaction was tempered, but the Russian authorities later announced what they described would be an adequate response, as they see NATO enlargement as a threat to national security. To counter this development, Russia will focus on using diplomatic instruments, disinformation activities, and hybrid attacks, mainly because it has limited capabilities to carry out military provocations against either country with its forces committed to the war in Ukraine.

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“Europe as a Task”: the Czech Presidency of the EU Council

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; EU Council; Europe; Czech Republic; presidency;

The Czech presidency of the EU Council, which began on 1 July, is to be dominated by actions aimed at helping Ukraine, gaining trade and energy independence from Russia, strengthening the security and economic resilience of the Union, and protecting democratic values. These goals are in line with the policy priorities of Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s government, which will likely work earnestly towards their implementation. This is a favourable circumstance for Poland, as these assumptions generally coincide with its objectives, in particular with regard to Ukraine, security, and energy.

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Belarus Declares It Will Upgrade Its Armed Forces

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus; Armed Forces; military policy; upgrade; foreign policy;

On 26 May, Alexander Lukashenka announced the creation of a third operational command – South - of the Belarusian Armed Forces. He also announced plans to speed up rearming of the army, arguing that the threat posed by Ukraine and NATO countries is growing. However, given the country’s budgetary constraints, the proposed reform will not mean a significant increase in the potential of the Belarusian army in the near future. The change most likely stems from the needs of the Russian Armed Forces related to the war in Ukraine and other reasons. It also shows that the Belarusian authorities have become completely dependent on Russia in their security and defence policy.

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Prospects of Conflict in the Taiwan Strait

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Taiwan; Ukraine; Russia; war; conflict; prospects;

The Russian aggression against Ukraine has intensified Taiwan’s preparations for a possible military attack by China, for which the annexation of the island remains a strategic goal. In the short term, aggression by China is unlikely, but according to the Taiwanese authorities, an invasion scenario is realistic within a few years. At the same time, the public’s faith in U.S. support in the event of a conflict is diminishing. In this situation, the EU should strengthen cooperation with the island, as well as prepare plans to respond to a possible attack on it by China.

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NATO Madrid Summit: a Response to Russia’s Revisionism

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war; NATO; Madrid Summit; security;

NATO’s new strategy identifies Russia as the main military threat to the Alliance, which declares the strengthening of defence and deterrence. It is in Poland’s interest to implement the plans to establish NATO brigade structures on the Eastern Flank as soon as possible and to develop a new model of reinforcement forces. Poland should also continue its efforts to secure the permanent combat presence of U.S. troops on its territory. It will play a crucial role in the further adaptation of the Alliance to the long-term threats from Russia and China.

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Ukrainian Society in the Face of War

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia; war; society;

Social mobilisation in Ukraine in the face of the Russian aggression remains high. The majority of the population actively supports the actions of the Ukrainian armed forces and the authorities, and there are relatively few cases of collaboration with enemy forces in the occupied territories. However, the lack of prospects for a quick end to the war may weaking the determination to resist. That is why it is important to provide support directly to Ukrainian society, including humanitarian aid.

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The EU’s Difficulties with Increasing Gas Imports from Arab States

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Arab States; Gas; import; trade; energy;

In mid-June, the EU signed an agreement with Egypt and Israel as part of an effort to increase gas imports from the Middle East and North Africa. However, among the obstacles to replacing Russian supplies with gas from this region are the limited infrastructure and the high demands of exporting countries. To increase the chances of success in this area, the EU may propose to combine gas purchase contracts with investments in the development of local renewable energy sources and new technologies.

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What Next for Georgia's Foreign Policy

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Keywords: Georgia; foreign policy; EU; NATO; security;

During the European Council summit on 23 June, Georgia was not granted EU candidate status, unlike Ukraine and Moldova, and received only the prospect of EU accession. Georgia is the most pro-European state in the South Caucasus. The effectiveness of its Euro-Atlantic foreign policy course is hampered by internal political polarisation and Russia’s policies towards the region. Georgia’s continued cooperation with the EU and NATO will depend primarily on its willingness to implement reforms and the development of an internal consensus between the government and opposition.

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New NATO Strategy Reshapes the Future of Crisis Response

Author(s): Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; crisis; response; strategy; security;

According to the strategy adopted by NATO in Madrid, preventing and responding to security crises in the Alliance neighbourhood remains one of its tasks. However, the experience of nearly three decades of missions outside the treaty area, especially Afghanistan, has contributed to a change in NATO’s approach to one that intends to engage more in prevention rather than direct intervention. Capacity-building and enhancing the resilience of NATO partners, including civilian crisis management, will become increasingly important.

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Turkish Opposition Focuses on Foreign Policy Corrections

Author(s): Aleksandra Maria Spancerska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; opposition; foreign policy; Ukraine; war;

According to polls, the Turkish opposition candidate has a chance to defeat Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in next year’s presidential elections. Although the opposition parties’ vision of foreign policy is not consistent, as evidenced by public divergences in, for example, the approach to the EU or the war in Ukraine, they remain consistent with the need to improve Türkiye’s relations with the West.

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Series:PISM Bulletin

After the National People’s Congress: China’s Economic Challenges and Cooperation with Russia

Elections in Hungary Overshadowed by Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine

European Commission Recommends Including Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia in EU Enlargement Policy

French Politics after the Second Round of Parliamentary Elections

Sahel States Opt for Negotiations with Jihadists

Challenges for the Fifth Government of Viktor Orbán

Germany in the Shadow of War and Inflation: Six Months of the Scholz Government

Opportunities and Challenges of South Korea’s Foreign Policy under Yoon Suk-yeol

Biogases: An Element of EU Energy Security

New EU Initiatives for Space Security

Russia on NATO Enlargement to Sweden and Finland

“Europe as a Task”: the Czech Presidency of the EU Council

Belarus Declares It Will Upgrade Its Armed Forces

Prospects of Conflict in the Taiwan Strait

NATO Madrid Summit: a Response to Russia’s Revisionism

Ukrainian Society in the Face of War

The EU’s Difficulties with Increasing Gas Imports from Arab States

What Next for Georgia's Foreign Policy

New NATO Strategy Reshapes the Future of Crisis Response

Turkish Opposition Focuses on Foreign Policy Corrections