Series:PISM Bulletin

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Opinions Divided on EU Unitary Patent

Opinions Divided on EU Unitary Patent

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; inventors; inventions; patents; protection;

From 1 June, there is a new way of protecting inventions in the EU. The unitary patent is intended to support inventors and improve protection of their inventions. For now, the unitary patent is in force on the basis of enhanced cooperation between 17 EU states, but it is already causing controversy among them, as well as with business. Reservations about the cost-effectiveness of the solution means that applicants for protection still often choose national patents.

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Africa Seeks Global Agency with Mission to Ukraine and Russia

Africa Seeks Global Agency with Mission to Ukraine and Russia

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia; Africa; food crisis; war;

On 16-17 June, the governments of Ukraine and Russia hosted high-ranking representatives of seven African countries in Kyiv and Saint Petersburg, respectively, including the presidents of South Africa, Zambia, Senegal, and the Comoros. The declared objective of the mission was to facilitate the circulation of food and fertilisers in order to mitigate the effects of the food crisis in Africa. The participants of the delegation also presented a 10-point peace plan, mostly favourable to Ukraine. However, the initiative had no chance of success. With the Ukrainian side now engaged in a counter-offensive, it rejected calls for “de-escalation” and for the Russian side to return to internationally recognised borders.

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The New Government in Finland will Grant Stable Support to Ukraine

The New Government in Finland will Grant Stable Support to Ukraine

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia; war; Finland; government; support; NATO;

In the new right-wing coalition government formed on 20 June, the centre-right, economically liberal National Coalition Party (Kokoomus) of Prime Minister Petteri Orpo plays a leading role. He succeeded Sanna Marin of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), who headed the centre-left cabinet. The entry of the nationalist Finns Party (PS) into the government will not reduce Finland’s commitment to help Ukraine. Furthermore, the new government will increase its activity in NATO. This aligns with Poland’s security policy goals, also in the Baltic Sea region.

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EU Advances Engagement with Latin America and the Caribbean

EU Advances Engagement with Latin America and the Caribbean

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Latin America; Caribbean; strategy; foreign policy; social development; economic development;

In its strategy towards Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), announced on 7 June, the European Union mainly proposes cooperation in defending the rules-based international order, enhancing economic ties, and promoting sustainable social development. Itis part of the EU’s drive to renew its strategic partnership with LAC to compete more effectively with China’s growing regional presence, among other reasons. The Union is therefore intensifying contacts at the highest level and engagement through the Global Gateway infrastructure investment programme.

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Russia Sharpens Nuclear Signalling Towards NATO

Russia Sharpens Nuclear Signalling Towards NATO

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war; NATO; nuclear weapons;

Russia has stepped up attempts to intimidate NATO with nuclear weapons, mainly by preparing for their deployment in Belarus. Russia wants to coerce the Alliance’s members into limiting their support for Ukraine. NATO countries should demonstrate more strongly that they will not be intimidated, also to reduce the risk that Russia, if faced with a collapse of its forces, will opt for a nuclear strike against Ukraine. In addition to renewing their warnings to Russia, the Alliance’s members should start discussing how to expand NATO’s nuclear capabilities in Europe.

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Slovakia in Emergency Mode - Assessing the Performance of the First Technical Government

Slovakia in Emergency Mode - Assessing the Performance of the First Technical Government

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Slovakia; elections; government; technical government; performance;

Despite failing to win a vote of confidence in mid-June, Ludovit Ódor’s technical government will run the state until early general elections in September. Its main task is to stabilise the political situation after the previous dismissal of Eduard Heger’s government, whose policy it is continuing. Despite friendly gestures and interests converging with Poland, including in the field of Eastern and energy policy, cooperation will be limited due to the legal restrictions of the government, which has a transitional character.

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The Kingdom’s Dilemmas: Saudi Arabia Seeks Relationships with Both Israel and Palestine

The Kingdom’s Dilemmas: Saudi Arabia Seeks Relationships with Both Israel and Palestine

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Saudi Arabia; Israel; Palestine; foreign policy;

Saudi Arabia is trying to find a new formula for its relations with Israel and the Palestinians. Although Saudi-Israeli relations are close on an unofficial level, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, especially the position of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, is holding back official normalisation. While the Saudis will seek to deepen relations with both Israel and the Palestinian side, this will be a process conditioned by, among other things, developments in Saudi relations with the U.S. and Iran.

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EU to Weigh Up Georgia’s European Perspective

EU to Weigh Up Georgia’s European Perspective

Author(s): Wojciech Wojtasiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Georgia; European perspective; candidate status;

Later this year, in December, the European Council (Council) will decide whether to grant Georgia candidate status for membership in the European Union. Unlike Ukraine and Moldova, Georgia did not receive it in June for stalling reforms, democratic regression, and an ambiguous attitude towards Russian aggression against Ukraine. A positive decision even in the context of Georgia’s failure to meet EU recommended reforms could influence a renewal of the country’s pro-Western foreign policy direction. At the same time, it could bolster the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party ahead of the 2024 elections, making it easier for the party to defeat its opposition.

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Developing Countries on the Brink of a Debt Crisis

Developing Countries on the Brink of a Debt Crisis

Author(s): Piotr Dzierżanowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: debt crisis; developing countries; monetary policy; global economy;

The end of expansionary monetary policies in developed countries, the decline in financing from China, and the economic turbulence resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine increase the risk of a major international debt crisis for developing countries. Such crises tend to spill over and the number of defaulting countries increases. While the threat of the destabilisation of the economies of developed countries remains low, the states may be affected by the consequences of the crisis, such as increased migration pressures.

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Coalition of Distrust: Breaking the Political Clinch in Bulgaria

Coalition of Distrust: Breaking the Political Clinch in Bulgaria

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bulgaria; politics; political clinch; coalition;

On 6 June, the Bulgarian parliament approved the government and thus dismissed the prospect of another early election (which would have been the fifth in two years). The cabinet is formed by the centre-right Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) party and a reluctant partner, the alliance of the centre-left We Continue the Change (PP) and the liberal Democratic Bulgaria (DB). The coalition is expected to govern for at least a year and a half, with a rotation of the prime minister after nine months. Its sustainability is favoured by the converging Euro-Atlantic orientation of its partners. It also offers opportunities for Bulgaria’s entry into the Schengen and euro areas, and for intensifying support to Ukraine.

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China Tempting EU Members and the Effect on Transatlantic Relations

China Tempting EU Members and the Effect on Transatlantic Relations

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; China; Transatlantic relations; influence; foreign policy;

China seeks to maintain differences within the EU, particularly regarding transatlantic cooperation towards China. Some EU countries and institutions do not perceive China as a threat and look cautiously at the reduction of economic ties with it. Others regard transatlantic cooperation, including vis-à-vis China, as an important element in strengthening European security. These differing approaches limit the ability of the EU and the U.S. to interact in areas related both to Sino-Russian cooperation and China’s escalation in the Indo-Pacific.

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The EU’s Prospects for Decoupling from Russian Gas

The EU’s Prospects for Decoupling from Russian Gas

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Russia; gas; energy; policy;

The Russian aggression against Ukraine and cut-off of gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria have strengthened the arguments of supporters of EU independence from Russian gas. However, the prospect of a total embargo is still distant because of opposition from some countries, including Austria, Germany, and Hungary. As a result, the EU will focus on a gradual reduction in purchases of Russian gas, which will have a negative impact on the effectiveness of the sanctions against Russia. It is in Poland’s interest to strive for increasing the pace of diversification of gas supplies to the EU and reducing use.

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The Impact of Finland’s and Sweden’s Accession to NATO on the Security of the Alliance

The Impact of Finland’s and Sweden’s Accession to NATO on the Security of the Alliance

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Finland; Sweden; NATO; membership; security;

The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO will increase the Alliance’s ability to conduct collective defence missions in the Baltic Sea region and to deter Russia. Therefore, the gains from the enlargement of the Alliance will far exceed the costs, which may include the need to create a new command responsible for missions on the Northern Flank of NATO. However, Türkiye’s opposition may prolong the accession process and increase the risk associated with the intensification of Russia’s provocative actions against the candidates.

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U.S. Increases Military Presence in Europe

U.S. Increases Military Presence in Europe

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Europe; military; presence; security; NATO;

In the face of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. has substantially increased its military presence in Europe, including on NATO’s Eastern Flank, although most of the additional deployments have been so far of a temporary nature. Itis not clear whether the U.S. will opt to significantly strengthen its forces in Europe in the long term over the state in late 2021, given that Russia is being weakened by the war and NATO members announcing increased defence investments. Without substantial U.S. involvement, however, it will not be possible to adequately enhance NATO’s deterrence and defence against Russia, which will be determined to rebuild its armed forces.

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On the Brink: A Year of the “Coalition of Change” in Israel

On the Brink: A Year of the “Coalition of Change” in Israel

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; government; elections;

The cabinet of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, established in June 2021, is in crisis after the loss of its parliamentary majority in April. The divergent interests of the coalition members have generated further conflicts over internal and security affairs, thus destabilising the government. While the government remains more effective in foreign policy than domestic matters, it is mainly thanks to regional cooperation. The weakness of the coalition has increased the probability of early parliamentary elections.

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The EU’s Proposed Data Act: Unease about the Flow

The EU’s Proposed Data Act: Unease about the Flow

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz,Marta Makowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Data Act; law;

The Data Act (DA) proposed by the European Commission aims to prevent the growing asymmetry between companies - mostly SMEs - in access to data. The new regulations, apart from targeting device manufacturers, also affects users and other companies that handle data generated when using certain devices, especially those generated by “smart” objects (i.e., connected to a network and communicating with each other, such as cars and household appliances) or stored in the cloud. However, the proposed solutions raise doubts in the context of personal data protection, trade secrets, and competition on the EU market.

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Problems Increasing in EU-China Relations

Problems Increasing in EU-China Relations

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; China; relations; foreign policy; problems;

The EU considers the Chinese political support for the Russian aggression against Ukraine as the main obstacle to the development of cooperation with China. At the EU-China summit on 1 April, the EU warned of sanctions on China if it helped Russia wage war. However, the EU is focused more on implementing mechanisms to protect the common market against economic threats from China. The Chinese authorities are trying to normalise relations with the EU to limit its cooperation with the U.S. in the rivalry with China. To this end, the Chinese also aim to take advantage of the differences between EU members’ stances with regard to relations with China and the U.S.

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The Relevance of BRICS after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

The Relevance of BRICS after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: BRICS; Russia; Ukraine; invasion;

The upcoming 14th BRICS Summit, held during the Chinese presidency of the group, will be an opportunity for China to promote its vision of the international order and for Russia to show that it is not internationally isolated. The BRICS will not, however, become a counterweight to the West, mainly due to the disparity of potentials between China and the rest of the group and especially the tensions between it and India. Among other things, the EU and the U.S. should counteract BRICS members’ disinformation about the war in Ukraine and attempts to blame the global food crisis on the countries imposing sanctions on Russia.

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Problems and Capability Gaps in Military Aid for Ukraine

Problems and Capability Gaps in Military Aid for Ukraine

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; war; military aid; problems;

International support for Ukraine has played an important role in preserving its independence, but is still not enough to stop the Russian offensive in Donbas. With the current high-intensity conflict, military supplies to Ukraine are not at the necessary level and not arriving on time. Many political, administrative, and technical issues are slowing down necessary military aid. Western partners might turn to much better, already available options to replace Ukraine’s damaged and lost heavy weapons, while also supporting the countries of Central Europe.

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Romania’s Support for Ukraine Clear but Restrained

Romania’s Support for Ukraine Clear but Restrained

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Romania; Ukraine; NATO; support; Russia; aggression;

Although Romania is among the countries of NATO’s Eastern Flank most fearful of Russian aggression, it pursues a policy of wait and see on the war in Ukraine. It supports the latter politically but has given only symbolic military aid. It is in Poland’s interest to persuade Romania to increase its support for Ukraine to help it fight off the Russian aggression, which could also contribute to a lasting increase in trust between Poland and Romania that in turn could foster post-war cooperation in the region.

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