Series:PISM Bulletin

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Prospects for the Diversification of Natural Gas and Oil Supply Sources to Hungary

Prospects for the Diversification of Natural Gas and Oil Supply Sources to Hungary

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak,Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Hungary; gas; energy; natural gas; oil supply; diversification;

The Hungarian government opposes the imposition of EU sanctions on the import of energy resources - especially gas - from Russia. The authorities explain this decision with Hungary’s high level of dependence on these resources and lack of alternative sources that are not more expensive. In fact, this stance is a consequence of Hungary’s long-standing policy towards Russia of closer political relations and energy cooperation since 2010, and the related lack of investment in the diversification of energy sources. Even if there is political will, which the authorities have not shown so far, it will be difficult for Hungary to free itself from Russian gas in the short term. The possibilities of giving up Russian oil are higher, but Hungary is unlikely to support an embargo on it this year.

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Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Debate on the Future of Agriculture in the EU

Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Debate on the Future of Agriculture in the EU

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; economic policy; agriculture; Ukraine; war; impact;

The war in Ukraine has sharpened the debate about the future of agriculture in the EU. Big agricultural producers are advocating a revision of targets and the timetable of the green transition. Environmentalist organisations urge a speed up, as they emphasise the downsides of agriculture’s dependence on imported fertilisers, fuel, and feed. In the face of political and economic instability, the majority of Member States are reducing their ambitions for environment-friendly reforms of the agricultural sector.

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The UK’s First Comprehensive Space Strategy

The UK’s First Comprehensive Space Strategy

Author(s): Aleksandra Kozioł / Language(s): English

Keywords: UK; space; strategy; policy;

The development of a comprehensive space strategy that encompasses civil and military aspects is in line with the British global strategy adopted last year. Its main goal is to strengthen the domestic space sector in the face of increasing competition on world markets and to make the United Kingdom one of the leaders in this field. The implementation of the strategy will be supported by increased funding, but without setting investment priorities and establishing closer cooperation with allies, including European countries, it will be difficult to achieve the objectives.

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EU Agrees the Digital Services Act

EU Agrees the Digital Services Act

Author(s): Marta Makowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: law; EU: legislation; digital services;

The Digital Services Act agreed in April between the Parliament, the Commission, and the Council of the EU is the first regulation in the world to set the rules for removing illegal online content, increasing the transparency of the functioning of websites, and improving the safety of network users. The implementation of the act in the European Union will be a challenge due to its wide scope, requiring increased involvement of the EU administration in the ongoing control of platforms. At the same time, the EU hopes that the act will become a model for similar laws in other parts of the world.

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Determinants of China’s Policy Towards the War in Ukraine

Determinants of China’s Policy Towards the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; Ukraine; war; policy; economy;

China’s position on the war in Ukraine depends mainly on the stabilisation of China’s internal situation before the 20th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress planned for autumn this year. By holding NATO responsible for the conflict, the CCP reinforces its rhetoric about the legitimacy of the rivalry with the U.S. China’s signals on supporting peace negotiations and not helping Russia to circumvent sanctions are intended to protect China from possible Western secondary sanctions. The prospect of further Sino-Russian cooperation should induce the EU to reduce its economic interdependence with China.

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Estonia’s Response to the Russian Aggression Against Ukraine

Estonia’s Response to the Russian Aggression Against Ukraine

Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Estonia; Russia; Ukraine; aggression; response;

Estonia shows an uncompromising attitude towards Russia after its aggression against Ukraine. Its rearming of the Ukrainian military is significant and is seen as a necessary element of NATO support. Estonia also supports the sanctions policy on Russia, including isolation of the country and withdrawal from imports of energy resources from it. Estonia underlines that the Alliance should strengthen its deterrence and defence capabilities towards Russia, and in particular increase the presence of allied troops on the Eastern Flank.

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Moldova’s and Separatist Transnistria’s Caution in the Face of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Moldova’s and Separatist Transnistria’s Caution in the Face of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Moldova; Russia; Ukraine; Invasion; Odesa Oblast;

Moldova supports Ukraine and unofficially respects the Western sanctions against Russia. Provocations in April and May 2022 in the separatist Transnistria, declared in 1990 in eastern Moldova as a de facto Russian protectorate, have increased fears of an attack from that territory on the Odesa Oblast of Ukraine or Moldovan areas controlled by the constitutional authorities in Chişinău. This scenario remains unlikely before a Russian siege of Odesa. Poland and its allies from the EU may discourage Russia from intervening in Moldova by supporting the latter’s self-defence capabilities.

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Turkey’s Defence Industry as a Foreign Policy Tool

Turkey’s Defence Industry as a Foreign Policy Tool

Author(s): Aleksandra Maria Spancerska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; defence industry; security; policy; foreign policy;

The development of Turkey’s defence industry makes it more convenient for the country to conduct independent military operations against PKK fighters in northern Iraq and Syria, and to achieve independence from foreign arms supplies. Turkey’s arms exports are a platform for strengthening political and economic relations. Moreover, it is a tool used by the ruling party to mobilise the conservative nationalist electorate. An improvement in Turkey’s relations with Italy and France could contribute to restoring talks on a partnership in the SAMP-T air defence missile system.

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Prospects for Russia’s Exclusion from International Structures

Prospects for Russia’s Exclusion from International Structures

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war; sanctions; international organizations; exclusion;

In response to the attack on Ukraine, most international organisations have condemned Russia’s actions. Suspension of the aggressor’s rights or expulsion has been less frequent because of how the organisations make decisions or the arrangement of political forces, among other reasons. Deprivation of membership also poses a risk of being interpreted by Russia as exemption from some international obligations. An alternative to the suspension of membership rights is to use other forms of limiting cooperation with an aggressor, which may be a solution that may be promoted by Poland.

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The Course of Cooperation between Russia and its Latin American Partners

The Course of Cooperation between Russia and its Latin American Partners

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Latin America; partners; foreign policy;

For the past several years, Russia has been strengthening ties with the authoritarian regimes of Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, and has developed cooperation with other Latin American countries as an investor in the energy sector, a supplier of weapons and Sputnik-V COVID-19 vaccine, and in other areas. Most Latin American governments have condemned the Russian aggression against Ukraine, but they have not imposed sanctions on Russia. It is in the EU’s interest to persuade its Latin American partners of the validity of the restrictions and to work together to mitigate the negative economic effects of the war.

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German-Russian Relations and the Invasion of Ukraine: Debates and Decisions

German-Russian Relations and the Invasion of Ukraine: Debates and Decisions

Author(s): Łukasz Jasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; Russia; Ukraine; invasion; foreign policy; relations;

The Russian aggression against Ukraine has provoked a debate in Germany about the mistakes of the previous government’s eastern policy. Russia is perceived now by German public opinion as more of a threat than before. The government’s stance towards Russia is evolving, and the fastest shifts are being made in energy policy. Business circles are hitting the “brakes” on sanctions, while Germany’s limited scope of military aid for Ukraine stems from fears in the public that the war will spread to NATO countries and is justified by German pacifism.

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Conference on the Future of Europe: Conclusions and Prospects for Implementation

Conference on the Future of Europe: Conclusions and Prospects for Implementation

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Europe; future; conference;

Pleas made through the Conference on the Future of Europe (CoFoE) are in line with the European Commission’s (EC) vision of European Union development focused on the green transition and strengthening the Community’s economic potential and self-sufficiency. The conference proposals support closer integration, but the Member States and EU institutions differ in their views on the optimal ways for implementing citizens’ wishes. The European Parliament (EP) urges treaty change, while a dozen states from Northern, Central, and Eastern Europe do not consider it necessary.

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No Exit: France on Its Discord with Mali and the Situation in the Sahel

No Exit: France on Its Discord with Mali and the Situation in the Sahel

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; Mali; Sahel; foreign policy; terrorism;

Since the coup d'étatin May 2021, Mali’smilitary authorities have been making unfriendly gestures towards France and pushing for its troops to leave the country as soon as possible. The situation has been exacerbated by Russia, which is supporting the Malian junta through private military companies and inspiring actions that are harmful to France. The rise of anti-French and anti-Western sentiment in the region is hampering France’s efforts to involve its European partners in the operation. Instead of focusing on the fight against terror, France is falling into conflicts with countries in the region and yielding to Russian influence.

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Influence of UK Local and National Elections on EU-British Relations

Influence of UK Local and National Elections on EU-British Relations

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

Keywords: UK; EU; relations; elections; foreign policy; influence;

On 5 May, local elections were held in Scotland, Wales, and parts of England, as well as assembly elections in Northern Ireland. While the results in England, Scotland, and Wales confirmed the stability of the power systemin Britain, the first victory of the republican party and the lack of unionist support for the post-Brexit border solutions perpetuate the crisis in Northern Ireland. As a result, the risk of the UK unilaterally suspending the Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland has increased in the absence of a breakthrough in the months-long talks between Boris Johnson’s government and the European Commission (EC).

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EU Aid For Ukraine Reconstruction - Assumptions and Challenges

EU Aid For Ukraine Reconstruction - Assumptions and Challenges

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; aid; Ukraine; EC; challenges;

On 18 May, the European Commission (EC) proposed a new financial instrument for the reconstruction of Ukraine and a mechanism for planning and coordinating international aid. The challenges will be to obtain sufficient funds and ensure an effective system for their use. Topping up the fund by confiscating Russia’s reserves frozen in the EU remains an open issue. Poland may encourage the EC to increase the role of local governments and organisations in aid implementation and promote the country’s experience in this field.

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The Significance of Russia’s Gold Mining in Africa is Growing

The Significance of Russia’s Gold Mining in Africa is Growing

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Africa; Gold Mining; Significance;

In the wake of the invasion of Ukraine and international sanctions, Russia is increasing the extraction and export of gold from friendly African countries. This will help it offset the cost of the sanctions. Despite the rising toll of the war, Russia does not intend to give up its activity in African countries or withdraw the Wagner Group’s mercenaries.

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Deficiency and Elusion: Relations between Israel and Ukraine

Deficiency and Elusion: Relations between Israel and Ukraine

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; Ukraine; relations; foreign policy; Russia; sanctions; aid;

The outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2014 broadened the political dimension of Israeli-Ukrainian relations. However, Israel’s cautious attitude towards Russia remains a burden for mutual relations with Ukraine. Since the renewed Russian aggression in February, Ukraine has diplomatically engaged Israel, but the limited nature of the latter’s support has led to criticism from Ukraine. The scale of the current assistance and pledged aid for the reconstruction of Ukraine, as well as Israel’s policy towards further tightening of sanctions against Russia, will be key to future relations.

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Parliamentary Elections in France: Between the Idea of the Fifth and Sixth Republics

Parliamentary Elections in France: Between the Idea of the Fifth and Sixth Republics

Author(s): Amanda Dziubińska / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; elections; parliament; electoral law;

President Emmanuel Macron’s party’s majority in the National Assembly (NA) is at stake in France’s upcoming parliamentary elections. In the background, however, is a growing conviction that the current electoral law does not reflect the real support for the political parties and that parliament does not have sufficient powers to control the government. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the left-wing coalition NUPES, proposes institutional reform and aspires to take the office of prime minister. The survival of the traditional parties on the political scene - the Republicans and the Socialist Party - is also at stake, especially in the context of the election alliances, particularly on the left.

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Lebanon after the Elections

Lebanon after the Elections

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Lebanon; Elections; Politics; Corruption;

Although the parliamentary elections on 15 May did not bring a breakthrough in the Lebanese political scene, the weakening of the dominant parties may facilitate reforms necessary to obtain foreign financial aid. The positive results for candidates related to the 2019 anti-government protests will mean a greater emphasis on the fight against corruption among the political elite. To avoid further instability in Lebanon, the EU could step up its support for that state’s institutions, including the Lebanese army, popular amongst the public.

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States Seek Treaty on Plastic Pollution

States Seek Treaty on Plastic Pollution

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: UN; pollution; plastic; UNEP;

With negotiations likely to start later this year, a treaty supported by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is expected to make it possible to tackle the problem of plastic waste pollution, a transnational problem requiring international cooperation. The challenge will not be its adoption as much as its implementation, as it requires legislative action and investment by countries and business. However, it will benefit especially the environment, biodiversity, and human health. It is in Poland’s interest to negotiate flexible solutions and identify directions for national action.

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