Series:PISM Bulletin

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Russia’s Wartime Censorship and Propaganda

Russia’s Wartime Censorship and Propaganda

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; war; wartime; media; propaganda; Ukraine; aggression;

In connection with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Russian authorities have introduced wartime censorship, forbidding the publication of content that does not conform to the official message of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation. This massive and unprecedented propaganda is leading to an increase in support for Vladimir Putin, and Russians protesting against the war are being brutally repressed and persecuted. The consequence is the strengthening of the totalitarian character of the Russian state and the emigration of Russians who do not support the war. The most significant element of the Russian war propaganda is that of “denazification”, a claim aimed also at Poland.

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Ukraine’s Wartime Information Strategy

Ukraine’s Wartime Information Strategy

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia; war; information strategy; communication;

Since the beginning of the latest hostilities with Russia, the Ukrainian authorities have been carrying out a coherent strategic communication aimed at their own citizens, Russian society, and the international community. Coherent communication builds social morale and has an impact on the policy of the countries supporting Ukraine. It is also an instrument in the fight against Russian disinformation. The importance of having effective tools of strategic communication is also growing in frontline states, such as Poland, which are exposed to disinformation and hybrid threats from Russia.

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The EU’s Search for a Response to External Economic Pressure

The EU’s Search for a Response to External Economic Pressure

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; economy; policy; EC; European Commission; policy instruments;

The European Commission’s (EC) proposed anti-coercion instrument aims to make better use of the EU’s economic strength to resist economic pressure on the Union or its members. It could increase the political weight of the bloc and have a positive impact on the cohesion of the single market. However, the challenge is to ensure that its application is effective, swift and politically controlled, and to strike a balance between the need to protect Member States from economic coercion and to discourage them from engaging in politically controversial initiatives in expectation of EU support.

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EU Sanctions against Russian Oligarchs and Entrepreneurs: Implementation and Challenges

EU Sanctions against Russian Oligarchs and Entrepreneurs: Implementation and Challenges

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Russia; Oligarchs; sanctions; implementation; challenges;

EU sanctions against Russia's business elite resulted in the freezing of some assets, and the European Commission (EC) has strengthened the coordination of their implementation. The challenge is to further detect the ownership of property of sanctioned persons, and the potential confiscation and use of funds to help Ukrainian citizens. Poland may demand an extension of sanctions on other oligarchs, their family members and proxies, and require the EC to report regularly on the results of the restrictions.

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The Persian Gulf Monarchies and the War in Ukraine

The Persian Gulf Monarchies and the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia; war; Persian Gulf; monarchies; foreign policy; Saudi Arabia;

In March, Muhammad bin Zaid (MBZ) and Muhammad bin Salman (MBS), de facto rulers of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, refused to answer Joe Biden’s call about the monarchies’ ability to increase oil production. Despite their declared neutrality, the positions of the Emirati and Saudi authorities regarding the war in Ukraine are becoming increasingly pro-Russian. The possible failure of further pressure from Western states on these monarchies would mean the beginning of a crisis in their relations with the EU and the United States.

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Potential of EU Support for Ukraine’s Fight with Russia

Potential of EU Support for Ukraine’s Fight with Russia

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Ukraine; Russia; war; support; potential;

The EU actively uses international support mechanisms for Ukraine, in the economic, military and crisis management dimensions. In order for this aid to be effective, it should meet the needs of Ukraine and be coordinated at the EU and Member States level. Ukraine’s further defence potential and the situation of the civilian population depend on the prompt provision of aid, including direct deliveries of weapons, military and rescue equipment.

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Franco - Russian Economic Relations in the Face of the War in Ukraine

Franco - Russian Economic Relations in the Face of the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Amanda Dziubińska / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; Russia; economic policy; relations; war; Ukraine;

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine will affect the French economy in micro and macroeconomic terms. At the present stage of the conflict, most French companies, supported in their decisions by the government, do not plan to withdraw from Russia altogether, and a few have decided to suspend their activities or to make no further investments. Due to the long-term investment of capital in Russia, considered to be a promising emerging market despite international sanctions imposed since 2014, France will continue its bilateral economic cooperation while looking for new investment directions and strengthening its position on the global market.

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Challenges for China`s Economic Development in 2022

Challenges for China`s Economic Development in 2022

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak,Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; economy; development; challenges; 2022;

Last year and the beginning of this year were successful for the Chinese economy due to a rebound after the slowdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, changes in the economic model designed to increase self-sufficiency in production and raise consumption face obstacles, including the persistence of the pandemic and problems in the real estate sector. The effects of the war between Russia and Ukraine, including rising commodity prices, may also result in a slower than expected growth rate this year. China's economic plans and cooperation with Russia should encourage the EU to reduce its bilateral economic interdependence with the PRC.

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The EU's Options to Limit Russia's Arms Exports

The EU's Options to Limit Russia's Arms Exports

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Russia; trade; economy; arms; export; limit;

In response to Russia's aggression in Ukraine, the European Union may consider imposing an embargo on Russian arms exports to its partners in the form of secondary sanctions. The aim would be to discourage third countries from purchasing weapons from Russia and to reduce the profits of the Russian defence industry. This could translate into lower revenues for the Russian budget and limiting its influence in the world. The EU should coordinate actions with the U.S. and its allies, including adopting a programme of support in the replacement of Russian weapons by states that are its traditional recipients.

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The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Food Security of Developing Countries

The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Food Security of Developing Countries

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; war; food; trade; security; developing countries; impact;

The Russian aggression against Ukraine is yet another economic challenge for developing countries after the COVID-19 pandemic and threatens their food security. The expected lower production and limits on export of grains from Ukraine and Russia, as well asrising costs of energy resources and fertilisers have led to an increase in global food prices. To counter this crisis, the EU and the U.S. may seek to increase the worldwide supply of cereals, including by activating strategic reserves, refraining from export restrictions, strengthening financing for organisations preventing hunger, and facilitating trade in fertilisers.

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The OSCE and the War in Ukraine

The OSCE and the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English

Keywords: OSCE; Ukraine; war; EU; NATO;

Russia’s attack on Ukraine, supported by Belarus, and Russia’s blocking of the extension of the mandate of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) in Ukraine calls into question the purpose of the organisation. Yet, despite the depreciating attitude of Russia and Belarus toward the organisation and its principles, the continuation of its work is necessary as a forum for contact and selective cooperation of the two countries with EU and NATO members, among other things. Poland’s chairmanship of the OSCE in 2022 demonstrates that it actively participates in shaping the functioning of the organisation.

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Turkey’s Role in the Russian - Ukrainian Negotiations

Turkey’s Role in the Russian - Ukrainian Negotiations

Author(s): Aleksandra Maria Spancerska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war; negotiations; Turkey; role;

The Russian-Ukrainian negotiations held on 29 March in Istanbul demonstrates that Turkey is assuming the role of an intermediary. Its policy of balancing between Russia and Ukraine is backed by the majority of the Turkish public, which gives President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan more freedom to manoeuvre. Acting as an intermediary in the conflict may allow Turkey an opportunity to start improving the strained relations with the European Union and the United States.

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Involvement of EU Agencies in Helping Countries That Are Receiving Refugees from Ukraine

Involvement of EU Agencies in Helping Countries That Are Receiving Refugees from Ukraine

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; agencies; Ukraine; refugees; help;

EU support for Member States most affected by the war in Ukraine includes funding for reception measures and ensuring refugees have access to protection throughout the Community, as well as coordination and operational assistance from EU agencies. The offer of agency resources extends to humanitarian aid, border management, and capacity-building of the Member States. Exploring the full potential of the EU agencies will require overcoming their internal problems and the will of the Member States to involve them in such cooperation,

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The Situation in Belarus in the Context of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

The Situation in Belarus in the Context of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; invasion; Belarus; situation;

Belarus’s participation in the Russian invasion of Ukraine will have significant consequences, including further international isolation and exacerbated economic problems. Although the Belarusian government will not change policy in the short term, these factors may significantly affect it over a longer period. EU countries, including Poland, should continue their policy of maintaining sanctions on Belarus while supporting civil society.

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An Atlanticist Against His Will: Macron’s Foreign Policy if Re-elected

An Atlanticist Against His Will: Macron’s Foreign Policy if Re-elected

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Keywords: foreign policy; USA; EU; China; Russia; NATO; France;

The growing antagonism between the United States, the EU, its partners on the one side and Russia and China on the other limits the space for independent foreign policy, which for President Emmanuel Macron was to be a way of increasing the role of France in the world. In the event of his re-election, Macron will continue to call for the construction of the EU as a “superpower” so that the Community can contribute to the shaping of a new model of multilateralism and avoid a return to the Cold War logic of a clash between two blocs. The limit of Macron’s ambitions will, however, be to maintain the unity of the EU, France’s membership of NATO, and its alliance with the United States.

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Russia’s War with Ukraine will Force the Acceleration of Food Production Reforms in Africa

Russia’s War with Ukraine will Force the Acceleration of Food Production Reforms in Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; war; Ukraine; Africa; food production; reforms;

Russia’s war against Ukraine limited the availability of wheat and other food products and fertilisers from both countries in Africa. In the short term, the crisis pushed several countries to ban food exports and seek alternative sources of supply. In the long run, it will make increasing production for domestic needs the highest priority on the African continent. The Nigerian solutions can be a good example in this regard.

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Flexible Neutrality: Austria on the Russian Aggression Against Ukraine

Flexible Neutrality: Austria on the Russian Aggression Against Ukraine

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; aggression; Austria; neutrality;

In visits to Ukraine and Russia, Chancellor Karl Nehammer emphasised the neutral status of Austria, which is engaged in dialogue with the warring sides. The Austrian government’s status explains its lack of arms supplies to Ukraine, while Austria’s high level of dependence on energy resources from Russia explains its reluctance to impose the EU embargo on them. This position may change if the embargo is backed by other EU countries that are also reluctant to impose it.

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Le Pen’s Vision of Foreign Policy

Le Pen’s Vision of Foreign Policy

Author(s): Amanda Dziubińska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Le Pen; foreign policy; France; USA: NATO;

A Marine Le Pen victory in this month’s presidential election would bring a definite shift in French foreign policy. The vision of the National Rally (RN) candidate assumes revising European integration and the development of the European Union (EU) towards the idea of a Europe of nations and revision of EU treaties. Le Pen aims to reconstruct relations with the U.S. and NATO, limit cooperation with Germany, and seek closer ties with the UK and Russia. A Le Pen presidency could threaten European unity, undermine France’s allied credibility, and lead to its gradual isolation in the international arena.

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Romania's Energy Policy: Implementation of the Transformation Assumptions

Romania's Energy Policy: Implementation of the Transformation Assumptions

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Romania; energy; policy; economy; nuclear energy;

Romania supported the European Union's independence from Russian energy resources. The cut-off from Russian supplies would not be particularly severe for the Romanian economy, which is highly self-sufficient thanks to gas extraction and nuclear energy. Therefore, by supporting the EU's climate policy, Romania was simultaneously part of a coalition of states that persuaded the EU to include nuclear energy in its energy taxonomy. Maintaining Romania's independence will depend on resolving problems with the development of the Cernavodă Nuclear Power Plant and the extraction of gasfrom the Black Sea fields.

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Ukrainians Resist in the Occupied South

Ukrainians Resist in the Occupied South

Author(s): Maria Piechowska,Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukrainians; Occupied South; Russia; aggression; resistance;

Since mid-April this year, acts of sabotage and subversion against the occupation forces, attacks on local collaborators, and information and psychological operations have been taking place in the southern areas of Ukraine. Their aim is to weaken the morale of the Russian troops, discourage the local population from collaborating, and maintain their determination to oppose the occupation authorities. At present, the scale and scope of these activities are insufficient to contribute to changing the operational situation on the southeastern front; however, strengthening the resistance movement to intensify its activities could play an important role in a potential Ukrainian counter-offensive.

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