Series:PISM Bulletin

0.00 €

Earthquake Rattles the Political Scene in Türkiye

Earthquake Rattles the Political Scene in Türkiye

Author(s): Aleksandra Maria Spancerska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; politics; earthquake; Syria;

On 6 February, there was a large earthquake in southeastern Türkiye and northern Syria. The delayed response of the Turkish authorities and emergency services has sparked criticism in particular from the opposition. The aftermath of the natural disaster will magnify the country's economic crisis and may prompt Erdoğan to use the crisis as an opportunity to unite Turks in the face of the quake-related human and property losses and keep the date of the parliamentary and presidential elections, announced for 14 May.

More...

0.00 €

China-Russia: Strategic Partners Strengthening Cooperation

China-Russia: Strategic Partners Strengthening Cooperation

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka,Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; Russia; Strategy; Cooperation; Economy;

The cooperation between China and Russia has strengthened in the face of the Russian aggression against Ukraine and the common goal of weakening the West. This was confirmed by Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow, which ended on 22 March. Chinese economic and diplomatic support, but also dual-use technologies, makes it easier for Russia to wage war. This increases the need to intensify U.S. and EU efforts in providing assistance to Ukraine and supporting the implementation of the interests of the Global South, which are receptive to the anti-Western message of Russia and China.

More...

0.00 €

CSTO Ambiguous on War in Ukraine and Faces Regional Challenges

CSTO Ambiguous on War in Ukraine and Faces Regional Challenges

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: CSTO; Security; Russia; Ukraine; War; Regional Challenges;

The prolonged war in Ukraine, as well as the political and military costs for Russia connected with it, will weaken the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). In turn, the Armenian-Azerbaijani war and Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan disputes revealed a lack of political coherence within the organisation. The CSTO’s decreasing role may prompt the states of Central Asia and the South Caucasus to look for other military partners, such as China and Türkiye. However, it also creates opportunities for closer cooperation with EU countries and the U.S.

More...

0.00 €

Brazil Engages Unconvincingly in Mediating End of Russia’s War Against Ukraine

Brazil Engages Unconvincingly in Mediating End of Russia’s War Against Ukraine

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Brazil; Russia; Ukraine; War; Foreign Policy;

Since the end of January, President Lula’s government has been promoting an initiative of a multilateral dialogue for peace in Ukraine. Its main objectives are a ceasefire and mitigating the adverse socioeconomic effects of the war on developing countries, but also strengthening Brazil’s international position. Lula’s government openly condemns Russia’s aggression but criticizes the sanctions against that country and the military support for Ukraine. It maintains it is neutral in the war but also relativises the Russian responsibility for starting it, which undermines Brazil’s credibility as an impartial mediator.

More...

0.00 €

Chinese Parliament Meets: Xi Gets Third Term, Structural Changes Confirmed

Chinese Parliament Meets: Xi Gets Third Term, Structural Changes Confirmed

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; Parliament; NPC; Xi Jinping; Li Qiang; government; changes;

During the session of China’s National People’s Congress (NPC), which ended on March 13, Xi Jinping was elected for a third term as chairman. The delegates approved the new composition and structure of the government, and Li Qiang, the former head of the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) in Shanghai, became prime minister. The Chinese authorities are planning to increase the rate of economic growth to about 5% this year and counteract the increase in unemployment among young people. The speeches by Chinese leaders during the session indicate a deepening of the rivalry with the U.S. as well as the strategic dimension of cooperation with Russia.

More...

0.00 €

Businesses, EU Strengthening International Supply Chains

Businesses, EU Strengthening International Supply Chains

Author(s): Piotr Dzierżanowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; economy; business; international relations; supply chains;

Over the past three years, global supply chains have experienced problems on an unprecedented scale. Given the rising political tensions and changes in the perception of the role of the economy in international rivalries, a return to international economic relations based on globalisation and trade liberalisation is highly unlikely. Instead, we will witness a necessary strengthening of supply chains, both at the individual business and national levels. For Western economies, the main challenge will be the reduction of related costs.

More...

0.00 €

Commission and Parliament Propose Changes to Electoral Law in the EU

Commission and Parliament Propose Changes to Electoral Law in the EU

Author(s): Tomasz Zając / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; electoral law; commission; parliament; proposal;

Two EU institutions have put forward proposals for changes to electoral law that aim to improve the electoral process at both the national and European levels. The European Parliament’s proposal envisages, among other things, the election of some candidates to the body from a supranational list common to all Member States. However, the introduction of such changes would require changes to the treaties, which many countries, including Poland, do not agree with. The Commission’s proposals aim, among other things, to introduce greater transparency of political advertising in the Member States.

More...

0.00 €

EU Responds to Transatlantic Competition in Green Technologies

EU Responds to Transatlantic Competition in Green Technologies

Author(s): Marianna Skoczek-Wojciechowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; green technology; USA; competition; economy;

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act challenges the competitiveness of the European green technology sector. The European Commission (EC), through its Green Deal industrial plan, proposes to increase the production capacity of European industry by simplifying regulatory rules, accelerating access to finance, and other initiatives. The EU also aims to reduce its dependence on Chinese raw materials. An obstacle, though, is in the need to reconcile the differences between the Member States as to the direction of further EC actions, for example, in terms of financing the plan.

More...

0.00 €

Building a Coalition - the U.S. Faces Down Competition with China in the Chip Sector

Building a Coalition - the U.S. Faces Down Competition with China in the Chip Sector

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; China; Technology; Economy; Chip Sector; Semiconductors; Taiwan;

In recent months, the U.S. has intensified its international efforts to limit China’s ability to produce the most advanced chips. The result includes the introduction by Japan and the Netherlands of restrictions on the export of modern machines for chip production. In response, China is trying to attract foreign investment and develop its own potential in this sector. The U.S. actions may significantly slow the pace of China’s technological development and economic growth and limit its potential to further strengthen its military capabilities. This may make it difficult for China to support Russia with dual-use products and render possible offensive actions against Taiwan harder.

More...

0.00 €

Ending the War in Sudan will be Difficult

Ending the War in Sudan will be Difficult

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: Sudan; war; end; RSF;

Fighting in Sudan between the regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has been ongoing since 15 April. The clashes are mainly taking place in the capital, Khartoum, and in the Darfur region, causing the destruction of infrastructure, a humanitarian disaster, and the displacement of the population. Although neither side has achieved military superiority or the support of the population, they are determined to continue fighting until the opponent is eliminated, which makes efforts to achieve a permanent ceasefire difficult. In the longer-term, international support for a political solution to the crisis should aim to restore civilian control of the state.

More...

0.00 €

China Becoming Globally More Active in the Security Sphere

China Becoming Globally More Active in the Security Sphere

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; global influence; relations; security; NATO; USA; EU;

China is expanding its potential to project power abroad. It includes legal changes, expansion of military infrastructure in other countries, and cooperation with partners in the Pacific. An example of their activity in the field of security is the operations of Chinese security companies, mainly in the Middle East and Africa. This should encourage NATO to further deepen cooperation with its members and partners, including with Pacific countries, as well as to strengthen the coordination of EU and U.S. policy towards developing countries.

More...

0.00 €

Belarusian Foreign Policy Priorities Presents Challenges for Poland

Belarusian Foreign Policy Priorities Presents Challenges for Poland

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus; foreign policy; Poland; nuclear weapons; Russia;

The signing of an agreement on the deployment of non-strategic Russian nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory is the realisation of one of the foreign policy priorities set out by Alexander Lukashenka in deepening the alliance with Russia. Belarus is also developing cooperation with other countries in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. At the same time, it will continue to pursue a policy that is hostile towards Western countries, especially Poland, and towards Ukraine. Together with increasing military and special services cooperation between Belarus and Russia, this will raise additional challenges for NATO members, especially the Eastern Flank states, in deterrence and defence and building resilience to hybrid threats.

More...

0.00 €

China Trying to Gain Greater Influence in Central Asia

China Trying to Gain Greater Influence in Central Asia

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; Central Asia; influence; foreign policy; economy; security;

The China-Central Asia Summit held in Xi’an in May confirmed China’s desire to strengthen its presence in the region at Russia’s expense. Among the reasons is Central Asian states’ scepticism of Russian aggression in Ukraine. At the same time, China’s stronger political and security-sector involvement is expected to confirm its image as bringing stability to the international situation. To balance Russian-Chinese influence in Central Asia, the EU would be advised to accelerate the implementation of investment projects in the region and to intensify, together with the U.S., the dialogue with states there, especially on tightening sanctions against Russia.

More...

0.00 €

Business and Consumer Protection Must Evolve after Europe’s Energy Crisis

Business and Consumer Protection Must Evolve after Europe’s Energy Crisis

Author(s): Piotr Dzierżanowski,Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Europe; energy; economy; business; consumer protection; crisis;

The energy crisis has hit businesses and consumers in the EU hard. Member States took remedial action and the European Commission implemented solutions at the Community level. The EU managed to avoid economic collapse and maintain the stability needed to support Ukraine and to face Russia. Further countermeasures will need to be taken this summer to avoid another energy crisis in the winter of 2023- 2024.

More...

0.00 €

EU Gauges Pathways to Accession to the Istanbul Convention

EU Gauges Pathways to Accession to the Istanbul Convention

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Istanbul Convention; International Law; Human Rights; UN; Violence;

On 10 May, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of the EU’s accession to the 2011 Council of Europe Convention on preventing and combating violence against women and domestic violence (Istanbul Convention). In addition to strengthening prevention and improving the situation of victims, the ratification of the Convention may contribute to reinvigorating discussions on the Union’s accession to other international agreements on the protection of human rights adopted by the Council of Europe and the UN.

More...

0.00 €

EP’s Two Largest Parties Again Seek Suitable Partner for After 2024 Elections

EP’s Two Largest Parties Again Seek Suitable Partner for After 2024 Elections

Author(s): Tomasz Zając / Language(s): English

Keywords: Europe; European Parliament; People's Party; Politics;

Europe’s two largest political parties—the European People’s Party and the Socialists and Democrats - have weakened over the course of the ninth term of the European Parliament, which ends in 2024. If the trends in their support are maintained, the parties will have to do what they did after the 2019 elections and find a partner to form a majority supporting the European Commission. That partner will most likely be the Liberals of Renew Europe (their support in opinion polls has also dropped). However, the declining ratings of the European centre-right have caused the Christian Democrat president to seek allies among the European Conservatives and Reformists as well. However, a coalition of the Christian Democrats, Liberals and Conservatives in the future parliament is unlikely due to internal resistance within the ranks of the first two groups to cooperation with the Conservatives.

More...

0.00 €

Erdoğan’s Re-election as President Raises Concerns among Allies

Erdoğan’s Re-election as President Raises Concerns among Allies

Author(s): Aleksandra Maria Spancerska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; Recep Tayyip Erdoğan; elections; foreign policy;

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s win in the presidential election and ministerial appointments promises to further weaken democracy, move Türkiye further away from EU standards, and continue so-called personal diplomacy and transactionalism in foreign policy. This could prolong the Turkish parliament’s ratification of Sweden’s accession to NATO.

More...

0.00 €

EU and NATO Countries Strengthen the Protection of Critical Infrastructure

EU and NATO Countries Strengthen the Protection of Critical Infrastructure

Author(s): Filip Bryjka,Tomasz Zając / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; NATO; critical infrastructure; protection; hybrid threats; China; Russia;

New EU regulations on critical infrastructure could strengthen the resilience of the Member States to hybrid threats from Russia and China. The main challenge, however, will be to develop and implement precise standards for the protection of such infrastructure jointly with NATO. It will be necessary to exchange experience in this regard among states and on the state-private sector line. This may provoke resistance among some Member States reluctant to share sensitive information.

More...

0.00 €

EU Development Cooperation Policy Shifts from Charity to Self-interest

EU Development Cooperation Policy Shifts from Charity to Self-interest

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; development; cooperation policy; poverty; aid;

In recent years, the EU’s development cooperation policy has evolved, moving away from an approach based on poverty eradication and the needs of partner countries to focusing more on its own interests. This change is supported by the majority of EU members. This gives the EU the opportunity to exert strategic influence in the world but risks the loss of its unique identity as an altruistic donor and attractive partner in development cooperation. The change in the Union’s approach is consistent with the position of Poland, which can use it to reform and strengthen its development aid system.

More...

0.00 €

China Facing Challenges Ahead of 20th CCP Congress

China Facing Challenges Ahead of 20th CCP Congress

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: CCP congress; China; economy; policy; problems; EU; radicalisation; foreign policy;

The 20th Congress of the CCP, which begins on 16 October, will take place in the context of growing economic problems and an unfavourable international position for China. In addition to the poor outlook for economic growth and rising unemployment, the PRC is still struggling with a real estate crisis and rising energy costs. Combined with the growing rivalry with the U.S., this is resulting in China’s closer cooperation with Russia. The likely continuation of Xi Jinping’s rule after the congress will intensify these trends. It also implies a radicalisation of China’s attitude towards the EU.

More...