Series:PISM Bulletin

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South Korea Adopts Indo-Pacific Strategy

South Korea Adopts Indo-Pacific Strategy

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: South Korea; Indo-Pacific Strategy; Economic Policy; EU;

Late last year, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s administration published its “Strategy for a Free, Peaceful, and Prosperous Indo-Pacific”. The document confirms a greater alignment of South Korea’s approach to the region with U.S. policy. However, it does not mean that South Korea is adopting a confrontational stance towards China. This is because the pursuit of economic interests remains the most important in South Korean foreign policy. The inclusive nature of the strategy provides an opportunity to deepen the country’s cooperation with EU countries in the spheres of maritime, cyber, and economic security.

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Assessing the Perspectives on the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Assessing the Perspectives on the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Keywords: Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict; assessment; EU; USA: Russia; foreign policy; dialogue; conflict;

Another armed escalation between Armenian and Azeri forces, initiated by Azerbaijan, took place in Nagorno-Karabakh in early August this year. The country’s goal is to exert maximum political pressure on Armenia during two-track peace talks under the auspices of the EU and Russia. At the moment, there is no chance of resolving the conflict, as it would not benefit Azerbaijan, which is the stronger side of the conflict, nor Russia, which is using the situation in the NK to emphasise its role as a mediator and to get the U.S. and EU countries to resume political dialogue with it.

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Russia Recruiting Volunteers to Fight in Ukraine

Russia Recruiting Volunteers to Fight in Ukraine

Author(s): Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia; fight; volunteers;

Since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has refrained from declaring a general mobilisation. It is trying to make up for the high losses of soldiers by, among other things, organising regional recruitment campaigns for volunteers. By the end of August this year, the authorities of the federation’s various entities are expected to have prepared around 34,000 new recruits for the fighting in Ukraine. In all likelihood, Russia will not be able to fully achieve this goal, and the formed battalions will not have significant combat value due to their poor level of training. Thus, they will probably suffer heavy losses, but the increasing number of casualties will not translate into a change in Russian tactics in Ukraine.

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WTO Negotiations Progress After the 12th Ministerial Conference Despite Challenges

WTO Negotiations Progress After the 12th Ministerial Conference Despite Challenges

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: WTO; trade; EU; negotiations; COVID-19;

Participants in the WTO’s first ministerial conference in nearly five years, which was held in Geneva on 12-17 June, took several important decisions, including on a waiver of intellectual property rights on COVID-19 vaccines and the reduction of subsidies for fisheries. The effects of the meeting testify to a breaking of the negotiation deadlock visible in recent years. However, the key issue of WTO reform remains unresolved. The EU should actively support talks on changes in the organisation, while striving to conclude trade agreements with a smaller group of its members.

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Extended Nuclear Deterrence Capabilities Under Debate in the U.S.

Extended Nuclear Deterrence Capabilities Under Debate in the U.S.

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; nuclear weapons; deterrence; capabilities; debate; NATO;

The U.S. Congress will likely reverse President Joe Biden’s decision to discontinue the development of a sea-launched nuclear cruise missile. While the U.S. is already planning to substantially enhance other capabilities to deter a nuclear attack on the allies, this missile could provide an additional hedge in an uncertain security environment in which the threat from Russia may grow further still. While the capability might strengthen deterrence of Russia, it would not replace NATO’s current nuclear capabilities in Europe as a means to demonstrate the resilience of the whole Alliance to nuclear threats.

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France Prioritises Planning to Face the Challenges of the Ecological Transformation

France Prioritises Planning to Face the Challenges of the Ecological Transformation

Author(s): Amanda Dziubińska / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; ecology; environment; policy; transformation; priorities;

The importance of the French authorities including planning for the green transformation in their priority areas increased in the last presidential campaign. Delays in the ecological transformation in France are most visible in the areas related to agriculture and renewable energy. The change in the institutional management of climate and energy policy initiated by the new government, including the direct subordination of ecological planning to Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne, is to accelerate the transformation, improve coordination of administrative activities, as well as increase the involvement of citizens and social groups distrustful of the actions of the new government.

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China Tightens Policy towards Taiwan

China Tightens Policy towards Taiwan

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; Taiwan; foreign policy; military confrontation; security;

China treated the visit of Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan at the beginning of August as an expression of U.S. efforts to change the status quo in the region. The reaction of the Chinese authorities was calculated as a controlled escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait, but without the risk of direct military confrontation. Harsh rhetoric, military exercises around the island, and the limitation of dialogue with the U.S. confirmed the intention of China to take over Taiwan in the coming years. For the EU, this means the need to intensify support for Taiwan, including the development of political and economic contacts.

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Space Technologies Key to the EU’s Fight Against Climate Change

Space Technologies Key to the EU’s Fight Against Climate Change

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; climate; space technologies; policy; sustainable development;

Launched in March 2022, the Destination Earth initiative to create a digital model of the Earth confirms the importance of space technologies in the EU’s green and digital transformations. The consequences of climate change, such as droughts, fires, and floods, reduce the security of citizens and cause economic losses. The dissemination of applications using satellite data will increase the effectiveness of climate action and sustainable development in the EU.

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Egypt Faces Severe Economic Problems

Egypt Faces Severe Economic Problems

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Egypt; economy; policy; problems;

In August, a year before the end of his term of office, Tarek Amer, head of the Egyptian Central Bank, resigned. This was a consequence of the deepening economic crisis caused by a decline in the country’s currency reserves and the impact of global problems on Egypt, which is dependent on food imports. Capital-intensive investments, mainly in the energy and real estate sectors, will exacerbate Egypt’s situation. Given the size of its population, economic collapse would have a significant destabilising impact on the EU’s southern neighbourhood.

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Russia Blocks Consensus Outcome of the NPT Review Conference

Russia Blocks Consensus Outcome of the NPT Review Conference

Author(s): Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; NPT; consensus outcome; Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty;

On 26 August, Russia blocked the adoption of the final document of the Tenth Review Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). It opposed the proposed provisions regarding the threats to the security and safety of Ukrainian nuclear installations, in particular the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Russia's decision has weakened the international non-proliferation regime. The course of the conference also showed increased divisions between nuclear states and their allies, and supporters of swift and complete nuclear disarmament.

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The EU and RES: From Fighting Climate Change to Fighting Russia

The EU and RES: From Fighting Climate Change to Fighting Russia

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Keywords: RES; EU; Russia; climate policy; security policy; foreign policy

Renewable energy sources (RES) are a key tool in EU climate policy. They can also be an important remedy to the problems of the shortage of energy resources and political abuses of control over them by producers and suppliers. However, at the current level of development of RES technologies, their use is associated with risks for energy security. For the EU, which wants to accelerate the development of its renewable energy potential in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a simultaneous goal should be to reduce the vulnerability of the European energy market to renewable energy challenges, such as cyberattacks or lack of access to critical raw materials.

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EU Weighs Lessons of the Temporary Protection Directive for the Future of Asylum Policy

EU Weighs Lessons of the Temporary Protection Directive for the Future of Asylum Policy

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Russia; Ukraine; war; asylum; policy;

In response to the mass of refugees following the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU activated a 2001 directive to grant refugees from the latter country temporary protection on the territory of the Member States. The use of this instrument has provided an impetus for the bottom-up relocation of refugees within the EU and accelerated the delivery of assistance, avoiding overloading national asylum systems. Although the positive experiences with the application of the directive will be important for further work on the reform of the EU asylum system, it will not become the basis of a new solidarity mechanism in a crisis.

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Canada Confronts Challenges in Defence Policy

Canada Confronts Challenges in Defence Policy

Author(s): Paweł Markiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; invasion; defence policy; Canada;

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine further increased Canada’s support for Ukraine, which was already strong before the war. Despite previous resistance, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau decided to increase the defence budget and make new investments in military capabilities. However, the scale of challenges concerning technical modernisation of the Canadian Armed Forces means that strengthening the military presence in Europe will not be a priority for Canada. The country’s role in further strengthening the Eastern Flank, in accordance with decisions reached at the NATO Summit in Madrid, will likely be limited.

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Surviving by Minimalism: Slovakia’s V4 Presidency

Surviving by Minimalism: Slovakia’s V4 Presidency

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Slovakia; V4; presidency; Hungary; foreign policy;

The Hungarian government’s reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has undermined the trust of Poland, Czechia, and Slovakia. This limits political cooperation within the Visegrad Group (V4) and has a negative impact on its activities, including in the field of defence. Therefore, Slovakia, which on 1 July took over the year-long presidency of the V4, plans to focus on non-controversial topics such as transport, culture, and tourism. At the same time, it wants to be more actively involved in other platforms of regional cooperation, mainly the Slavkov Triangle.

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Countering Russian Disinformation about Ukraine in the EU

Countering Russian Disinformation about Ukraine in the EU

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Russia; Ukraine; disinformation;

Russia is actively conducting disinformation campaigns in the EU regarding its war in Ukraine, which may weaken the support for the latter country in some Member States in the long run. Although the EU is trying to counteract the messages, the challenges included the circumvention of sanctions by Russian media and the limited possibilities of controlling the activities of internet platforms. For Poland, it is important to further strengthen the EU’s ability to counter disinformation by, for example, expanding the East Strat-Com monitoring cell.

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Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act Seen as Key in U.S. Midterm Elections

Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act Seen as Key in U.S. Midterm Elections

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Biden; Inflation Reduction; Act; USA;

On 16 August, U.S. President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act to complete the Build Back Better economic and political plan that was at the heart of his electoral agenda. The act is intended to contain the soaring costs of living for Americans caused by inflation and to reduce the budget deficit. At the same time, it includes the largest package of measures for climate protection to date, facilitating the implementation of U.S. climate policy goals. The effects of the act will be felt only in a few months, and therefore its significance for the outcome of the November midterm elections to Congress will depend on building an effective campaign message.

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Surviving the Winter: France’s Preparations for a New Energy Crisis

Surviving the Winter: France’s Preparations for a New Energy Crisis

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; Energy Crisis; policy;

Faced with the threat of a cut-off of gas supplies from Russia and the temporary shutdown of a large number of reactors, the French government has begun to encourage citizens and businesses to reduce their gas and electricity consumption. The most effective savings incentive would be a partial price release, but the resulting social discontent and recession could destabilise the political situation in the country, including undermining French support for Ukraine. The authorities are therefore promising to further limit price increases, while seeking alternative sources of electricity and gas supply.

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In the Shadow of the War in Ukraine, Russia Holds Vostok 2022 Manoeuvres

In the Shadow of the War in Ukraine, Russia Holds Vostok 2022 Manoeuvres

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; military drill; Vostok 2022; Ukraine; War;

On 1-7 September, in Russia’s Far East (in the Eastern Military District), the largest military drills this year involving the Russian Armed Forces, Vostok 2022, took place. Because of Russia’s involvement in the armed conflict in Ukraine, the importance of the drills was to be much greater than in the previous edition in 2018. Russia’s goal was to show that its involvement in Ukraine has not adversely affected its operational capabilities and that it has an established network of military partners, including China and India. However, the course of the exercises showed that the losses in Ukraine have reduced the potential of the Russian Armed Forces, especially the Land Forces.

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Türkiye Struggling with Economic Problems and Foreign Policy

Türkiye Struggling with Economic Problems and Foreign Policy

Author(s): Aleksandra Maria Spancerska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; foreign policy; economic problems; EU; Russia; Arab States; Israel;

The ongoing crisis in the Turkish economy poses a risk of destabilisation in the EU’s southern neighbourhood. The intensification of the pauperisation of the society and brain drain may have an impact on the results of next year’s elections. The long-lasting economic difficulties are also prompting Türkiye to normalise relations with Arab states and Israel.

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China as a Challenge for NATO: Weighing Its Influence on the Collective Defence of the Alliance

China as a Challenge for NATO: Weighing Its Influence on the Collective Defence of the Alliance

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; China; defence; policy; relations;

NATO has recognised China’s policies as a challenge to Euro-Atlantic security, an area which, according to the North Atlantic Treaty, is the Alliance’s primary responsibility. This designation allows for the strengthening of strategic relations between the U.S. and its European allies, on which the credibility of NATO’s collective defence depends. However, it will be necessary to clarify the division of responsibilities between the U.S. and other allies related to both the defence of the treaty area and wider international security in the face of threats from Russia and China.

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