Series:PISM Bulletin

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China’s “Zero COVID” Policy Fails

China’s “Zero COVID” Policy Fails

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; COVID-19; pandemic; policy; economy situation;

In the face of the deteriorating economic situation and protests, the Chinese authorities modified the rules of fighting the pandemic. In December, they lifted most of the restrictions, which resulted in a rapid increase in infections and other effects. While maintaining the rhetoric about the positive effects of the “zero COVID” policy, they present the changes as the next stage in the fight against the coronavirus. In the next few months, the authorities’ decisions may bring about an improvement in the economic situation at the expense of, among others, the deaths of millions of Chinese.

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Between Competitiveness and Protectionism: Economic Priorities of the French Presidency

Between Competitiveness and Protectionism: Economic Priorities of the French Presidency

Author(s): Amanda Dziubińska / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; presidency; competitiveness; protectionism; economy; priorities;

The French presidency of the Council of the European Union will seek to increase the resilience of European industrial ecosystems, support the green and digital transformations, and develop new production capacities. The solutions promoted by President Emmanuel Macron, such as a carbon border tax or minimum wage, are to simultaneously increase the role and competitiveness of French industry and European strategic autonomy. The French presidential elections scheduled for April may make it difficult to achieve these goals.

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Prospects for the Launch of the Digital Yuan

Prospects for the Launch of the Digital Yuan

Author(s): Oskar Szydłowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; currency; digital Yuan; prospects;

Among the digital currency projects developed by major economies, the Chinese digital yuan (e-CNY) is the most advanced. After pilot projects in selected Chinese regions, the biggest test was to be at the Winter Olympics in Beijing. The spread of the digital yuan will enable the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)to expand its digital authoritarianism through increased surveillance of citizens’ finances. It may also increase the Chinese currency’s share of international transactions in the region. The success of the e-CNY should accelerate the ECB’s work on a privacy-preserving digital euro.

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Summary of and Perspectives on Russia’s Policy Towards the U.S. after Biden’s First Year

Summary of and Perspectives on Russia’s Policy Towards the U.S. after Biden’s First Year

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Russia; foreign policy; Biden;

Russia is not satisfied with U.S. policy in Joe Biden’s first year of his presidency. Russian diplomacy was counting on what it considered more pragmatism. With the Russian military threats against Ukraine, the U.S. declared readiness for talks, which encouraged Russia to make more demands. However, Russia has failed to obtain legal security guarantees from the U.S., including on the non-expansion of NATO to Ukraine. Therefore, Russia will continue to escalate tensions in Europe, testing U.S. alliance commitments.

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Prospects for Breaking the Deadlock in Bulgarian-Macedonian Relations

Prospects for Breaking the Deadlock in Bulgarian-Macedonian Relations

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski,Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bulgaria; Macedonia; relations; foreign policy; deadlock; EU; identity;

Due to identity disputes, Bulgaria blocked North Macedonia’s accession negotiations with the EU. The new prime ministers of these countries, Kiril Petkov and Dimitar Kovačevski, want to facilitate breaking the deadlock by tightening sectoral cooperation. They met on 18 January in Skopje, and a week later a joint government meeting was held in Sofia,. Withdrawing the Bulgarian veto may continue to be difficult without the greater involvement of EU partners. Meanwhile, the blockade of Macedonian - and thus also Albanian—talks with the EU is deepening the crisis of the enlargement policy, which is supported by Poland.

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Evolution of EU Travel Rules During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Evolution of EU Travel Rules During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; travel; COVID-19; pandemic; rules;

The new variants of SARS-CoV-2 and the development of the vaccination process in the EU are changing the rules of travel within the territory of the Community. New guidelines on this matter adopted by the Council of the EU in January focus not so much on the country of departure of the traveller as on his/her personal health situation. This more individualised approach is to make it possible to dispense with additional ad hoc travel restrictions imposed by Member States. At the same time, it promotes vaccination, recognising it as essential in fighting the pandemic.

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Support for Ukraine in the American Political Debate

Support for Ukraine in the American Political Debate

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; war; USA; political debate; support;

The growing threat of new Russian aggression has raised the importance of the support for Ukraine in the American political debate. The Biden administration has decided to increase military support for Ukraine, a decision which is supported by most Democrats and Republicans. However, pressure is growing in Congress to further strengthen Ukraine and implement tools to immediately impose sanctions on Russia in the event of a new attack. At the same time, there are voices in both parties warning against American involvement in this crisis. If those views grow more popular, that may hinder the political debate about the U.S. involvement in European security.

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Hungary and the Russian Threat of Further Aggression Against Ukraine

Hungary and the Russian Threat of Further Aggression Against Ukraine

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia; Hungary; foreign policy; threat; aggression;

Hungary considers the dispute between the West and Russia over renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine is of no concern to it. The government defines its stance from a neutral third party position. It neither condemns Russia’s actions nor supports Ukraine. Past actions indicate Hungary will not veto EU and allied actions against Russia if it would be the only country to break from common positions, however, it will continue to act to the benefit of Russia by trying to weaken Euro-Atlantic structures and impede cooperation with Ukraine.

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New Military Doctrine of the Union State of Belarus and Russia

New Military Doctrine of the Union State of Belarus and Russia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Belarus; Russia; military doctrine;

In February, a new joint military doctrine for Belarus and Russia was published. Its content reflects the changes that have taken place in recent years both in the perception of threats by Belarus and Russia and in the security policy of the Union State. Both countries will deepen their military, political, and economic integration to counter the alleged dangers posed by NATO. This will require the Alliance to further adjust its deterrence and defence capabilities on its Eastern Flank.

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Prospects for the Negotiations of the EU Digital Markets Act

Prospects for the Negotiations of the EU Digital Markets Act

Author(s): Marta Makowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; digital market; legislation; negotiations; prospects;

Negotiations of the Digital Markets Act (DMA), one of two flagship EU legislative proposals to regulate online platforms, are entering the decisive phase. France, presiding over the EU Council, wants to bring about an agreement between the states, the European Commission (EC), and the European Parliament(EP) by mid-2022. Adoption of certain EP amendments increasing the obligations of American platforms only may temporarily weaken the cooperation between the EU and United States in the area of digitalisation. Ultimately, however, it will gain momentum in the face of competition from China.

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Rapprochement with Russia, Alienated from the EU: AfD Congress Confirms the Party’s Radicalisation

Rapprochement with Russia, Alienated from the EU: AfD Congress Confirms the Party’s Radicalisation

Author(s): Łukasz Jasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: AfD; Germany; policy; Russia; EU; foreign policy; radicalisation;

The June congress of Alternative for Germany (AfD) confirmed the growth of the party’s radical wing and its anti-system, populist character. The AfD’s proclamations of anti-EU views are accompanied by demands for close cooperation with Russia. In the coming months, the AfD leadership will seek to make political gains from growing fears of inflation and the energy crisis through social appeals.

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South Korea-NATO Cooperation Intensifies

South Korea-NATO Cooperation Intensifies

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: South Korea; NATO; security; foreign policy;

The participation of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol at the June NATO summit was an element of the Alliance’s deepening cooperation with its Asia-Pacific partners. Strengthening ties with NATO and its member states in areas such as cybersecurity and the defence industry serves to raise South Korea’s position as an actor contributing to international security. The country’s increasingly clear stand on the side of the U.S. in the rivalry with China and Russia, which are actively undermining the current international order, may coarsen its relationship with China and result in increasing tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

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Negotiations Conclude on the EU-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement

Negotiations Conclude on the EU-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; New Zealand; foreign policy; trade; free trade;

At the end of June, the European Union and New Zealand concluded negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA). Although both sides will see benefits, its value for the EU is mostly symbolic, given the asymmetry of their economies. The agreement fulfils the need to diversify the Union’s partnerships with third countries in view of the war in Ukraine and implements the EU’s new approach to trade and sustainable development (TSD). It also confirms both partners willingness to engage in multidimensional cooperation and may contribute to their post-pandemic economic recovery.

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EU Seeks to Import More Gas from the Caspian Basin

EU Seeks to Import More Gas from the Caspian Basin

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; gas; energy; import; trade; Caspian Basin;

As part of the diversification of its gas supply sources, the EU reached agreement with Azerbaijan on 18 June to increase imports from the country. The existing capacity of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) is to be doubled within five years so that Azerbaijani gas becomes one of the main alternatives to Russian gas. However, the limited gas reserves on the Azeri side, the complicated legal status of the Caspian Sea, and the actions of Russia and Iran to sabotage gas export projects that bypass them on the way to the EU may prove to be severe obstacles. Increasing the SGC’s transmission capacity would be beneficial to Poland as it would limit the role of Russian raw materials on the European market.

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IPCEI Gaining Momentum in the Development of European Industry

IPCEI Gaining Momentum in the Development of European Industry

Author(s): Marta Makowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: IPCEI; energy; technology; production; EU;

To sustain the dynamic development of new technologies and the accelerating transformation of the EU economy, the mechanism of important projects of common European interest, IPCEI, is gaining importance. Created as a special form of public aid to strengthen European industry, IPCEI can contribute to the implementation of breakthrough solutions, including in the production and storage of hydrogen as energy or the development of battery technology, and to strengthen the global competitiveness of the Union. Its potential for disturbing competition in the internal market, though, remains a challenge.

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Taliban Tightening Grip on Afghanistan One Year after Taking Power

Taliban Tightening Grip on Afghanistan One Year after Taking Power

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Talibans; Kabul; terrorism; Afghanistan; USA; EU; aid;

Since the seizure of Kabul on 15 August 2021, the Taliban have been consolidating power by recreating the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan of the 1990s. The Taliban government’s limiting of human rights, especially of women, and constant ties to terrorist organisations reduce the chances of international recognition. Afghanistan has not yet become a centre of global terrorism or a source of mass migration, but the suspension of economic support has deepened the humanitarian crisis. Western partners, including the EU and the U.S., should pursue humanitarian aid and consider unfreezing Afghan currency reserves.

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What are the Prospects the U.S. Authorities will Designate Russia a State Sponsor of Terrorism?

What are the Prospects the U.S. Authorities will Designate Russia a State Sponsor of Terrorism?

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Russia; terrorism; foreign policy; sponsor of terrorism;

In July, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi called on the U.S. Secretary of State to designate the Russian Federation as a state sponsor of terrorism. In response, Secretary Antony Blinken expressed scepticism as to whether such a step was needed, revealing differences between the administration and Congress on the issue. Including Russia on the list would have a number of legal and financial consequences, such as increased restrictions and opening a discussion on possible secondary sanctions against Russia.

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Ethiopia and Tigrayans Pursue a Complicated Peace

Ethiopia and Tigrayans Pursue a Complicated Peace

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ethiopia; Tigray; peace; diplomacy;

The recognition by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed that the use of force in Tigray province has been ineffective is, with international diplomatic efforts, conducive to ending the Ethiopian civil war. Preparations are underway to start direct talks between the central government and the Tigrayan leadership. EU and U.S. envoys primarily seek to unlock basic services from the Ethiopian government for the inhabitants of Tigray.

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EU Supports the Ukrainian Justice System in the Face of War

EU Supports the Ukrainian Justice System in the Face of War

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Ukraine; war; support; justice system;

The EU has joined forces with Ukraine, third countries and the International Criminal Court (ICC) to document crimes committed in Ukraine. It also has reformed Eurojust, the EU Agency for Criminal Justice Cooperation, which was engaged on an unprecedented scale in the coordination of judicial activities of the Member States and organisational, training, and financial assistance to the Ukrainian prosecutor’s office and the ICC. Thanks to this, the agency has a chance to increase its importance at the EU level and become a permanent partner of international courts.

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Japan Counters China and Russia in Africa

Japan Counters China and Russia in Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; Russia; Japan; Africa; development programmes;

At the eighth Japanese development conference on Africa (TICAD-8), held on 27-28 August in the Tunisian capital, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida promised to spend $30 billion over the next three years on development programmes in Africa. Japan uses this initiative to counter the activity of Russia and China on the African continent, promoting a development model linked to an order based on law and multilateralism.

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