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Tensions in U.S.-France Economic Transatlantic Cooperation are Returning

Author(s): Amanda Dziubińska,Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; France; Economy; Transatlantic Cooperation; EU;

Despite the close and multi-sector cooperation and ideological proximity of presidents Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron, the U.S. and France have been unable to reconcile their differences in approach to key economic issues in transatlantic relations. The dispute over protectionism and their different positions in selected economic areas will burden bilateral relations in the coming years, threatening the stability of relations between the U.S. and the EU. Although the adoption of similar subsidies as the U.S. by the EU in the single market may be beneficial for Poland, the desire of individual countries to subsidise their own economies will cause internal tensions within the EU.

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Triggering the Rule-of-Law Conditionality Mechanism against Hungary

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Rule-of-Law Conditionality; Hungary; EU funds;

The mechanism that makes the payment of funds from the EU budget conditional on compliance with the principles of the rule of law isthe newest instrument for protecting the Union’s financial and political interests. The tool allows the European Commission and the EU Council (Council) to exert influence on Member States that violate the fundamental principles of the Community. Triggering it against Hungary might result in a reduction of EU funds to the country as a consequence of rule-of-law violations for the first time in EU history. It is doubtful, however, that this will lead to systemic changes in Hungary.

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Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports Require Further Refining

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel,Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Oil; Export; Sanctions; Ukraine; Aggression;

Western and other states’ restriction of imports of Russian oil and sanctions on its oil trade had little impact on Russia’s budget revenues in 2022. This was because Russia found new customers for its crude, mainly in Asia. The effects of the restrictions only started to become apparent from the beginning of this year, but without a further, significant reduction in this source of income, Russia’s ability to fund its aggression against Ukraine will not be weakened. The best way to increase the effectiveness of the sanctions would be to further reduce the price ceiling on Russian oil and take steps to increase the oil supply on the global market from alternative sources.

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Reviewing the Russian Economy a Year After the Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Piotr Dzierżanowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war; invasion; economy; sanctions; Russian economy;

The sanctions imposed on Russia after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine were unlikely to cause an immediate collapse of the economy. However, they have affected Russian supply chains and harmed its industry, including the defence sector. The sanctions also have curbed revenues from the export of energy resources that facilitate financing of the war. In the medium term, sanctions may bring the expected results and, therefore, it is advisable not only to maintain them and ensure their correct application but also to tighten them.

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Türkiye’s Political Scene Prepares for May Elections

Author(s): Aleksandra Maria Spancerska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; May elections; CHP; president; Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu; foreign policy;

On 6 March, the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, became a presidential candidate, backed by the main opposition parties gathered as the Table of Six. The presidential and parliamentary election campaign will centre on the themes of the recent earthquake, high inflation, and refugees. The results of the 14 May vote will have a decisive impact on the future shape of the Turkish political system. It also will decide the continuation or correction of certain aspects of Türkiye’s foreign policy.

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The Marathon of Strikes in France Hit President Macron’s Pension Reform

Author(s): Amanda Dziubińska / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; Macron; economy; pensions; public finances; reform;

After two months of parliamentary work, the French government adopted a draft reform - without a vote in the National Assembly - raising the retirement age from 62 to 64. The law met with strong public opposition and a firm reaction from trade unions. Although the reform is necessary to improve the condition of public finances, the actions of the government and the lack of dialogue with the protesters have sparked an internal crisis and weakened the political position and confidence of the French in President Emmanuel Macron.

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EU Smoothly Developing Military Mobility in Europe

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; military policy; mobility; Europe; Ukraine; Russia; invasion; war;

Democratic states can send military equipment to Ukraine faster thanks to EU military mobility, an initiative aimed at improving the transport of military personnel and assets across the continent. Unified military requirements as well as simplified transport procedures contribute to this. In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the EU updated its directions for the development of military mobility. Implementation of the plans will, however, require increased financial outlays, especially for protecting transport infrastructure and supporting partners such as Ukraine and Moldova.

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Saudi Arabia’s Agreement with Iran Signals Policy Shift

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Saudi Arabia; Iran; foreign policy; China; USA;

The main motivation for the Saudi authorities to reach an agreement with Iran was the desire to reduce tensions in the Persian Gulf to facilitate the diversification and strengthening of the Saudi economy. China’s involvement in the talks is a further sign of the deteriorating relations between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. The monarchy will use its relations with China to strengthen its position in international relations and to discourage the West from criticising its policies.

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South Korea and Japan Attempt to Mend Relations

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Japan; South Korea; foreign policy; relations;

On 16-17 March, President Yoon Suk-yeol visited Tokyo where he met with Prime Minister Kishida Fumio. The first visit of a South Korean president to Japan in more than 11 years was to resolve historical, political, and economic disputes. The lifting of trade restrictions and the tightening of security cooperation between both U.S. allies strengthens the United States in its competition with China. However, a lasting improvement in relations between South Korea and Japan will be hindered by the scale of the still unresolved problems and lack of South Koreans’ support for Yoon’s conciliatory policy.

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Iran Continues Course as Half a Year of Protests Subside

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Iran; China; Russia; foreign policy; security policy;

The recent wave of protests in Iran is subsiding, decisively pacified by the security forces and lacking the emergence of opposition leaders. Because there is little chance that the authorities will implement any significant reforms, the conditions for another anti-system rebellion will remain in Iran. The need to strengthen and stabilise the Iranian regime will encourage it to further broaden partnerships with China and Russia.

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South Africa-Russia Maintain Special Relations

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: South Africa; Russia; foreign policy; relations; international law;

Although South Africa declares it is neutral regarding the war in Ukraine and offers mediation, it remains a de facto ally of Russia. This is due to the strong sentiment among the ruling elites for the period of cooperation with the USSR, its successor Russia and its activity and influence in this country, and the perception that BRICS will help elevate South Africa’s international importance. If Vladimir Putin visits Johannesburg as scheduled in August, the authorities of the state, which is party to the Rome Statute, will not be willing to fulfil their obligation to arrest him or may even leave the International Criminal Court.

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Security Issues Still Key in U.S.-German Cooperation

Author(s): Łukasz Jasiński,Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Germany; cooperation; military policy; security; foreign policy; NATO; Ukraine; Russia; war;

Germany’s hesitation regarding military aid for Ukraine and its different perception of cooperation with China make it difficult to rebuild the strategic partnership with the U.S., weakened by the Trump presidency. Differences of interest will not degrade Germany’s position as the key military and political partner for the U.S. in Europe in the near future. For other regional American allies, including Poland, it is important that in the short term U.S.-German differences of opinion do not disrupt aid to Ukraine and, in the long term, do not result in a reduction in the presence of U.S. troops in Europe.

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Russia Turns Towards Eurasia in New Foreign Policy Concept

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war; Vladimir Putin; foreign policy; Eurasia;

Vladimir Putin approved a new Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation at the end of March this year. Like in the previous version of the document from 2016, Russia takes a negative view of Western policy and emphasises the rise of use of force in international relations. Russia accuses the West of hegemony and declares a permanent turn towards Eurasia. New in the document is the possibility for Russia to use its military to defend its citizens outside its borders.

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States Successfully Conclude Negotiations of the High Seas Treaty

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz,Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Keywords: High Seas Treaty; UN states; biodiversity; pollution; ocean;

After two decades of discussions, UN states have completed work on a treaty on the conservation of ocean biodiversity, allowing the creation and management of protected areas in international waters. The agreement can help counter climate change, biodiversity loss, and ocean pollution. However, its real impact on the environment will depend on swift ratification and subsequent effective implementation.

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Using Frozen Russian Assets to Rebuild Ukraine: Possibilities for the EU

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Ukraine; war; Russia; frozen assets; rebuilding;

The EU wants to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine, using for this purpose frozen Russian assets, among others. The European Commission proposes to improve the system of confiscation of private assets of sanctioned persons in case of criminal activity and to obtain income from the active management of immobilised Russian public assets. These solutions may yield limited results. To be more effective, the EU would have to reach an international agreement to confiscate the reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

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Spain Strives to Boost the EU’s Relations with Latin America and the Caribbean

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Spain; relations; Latin America; Caribbean;

The Spanish government cites the deepening of the European Union’s partnership with Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) among the main objectives of its presidency of the Council of the EU, which begins on 1 July this year. The first summit of heads of state and government of both regions since 2015, scheduled for 17-18 July in Brussels, is the main point on that agenda. The deficit of mutual interest between EU and LAC states and differences over trade liberalisation and Russian aggression against Ukraine are just some of the challenges in strengthening the bi-regional partnership. The recent decision of the Spanish authorities to call snap parliamentary elections on 23 July will complicate the presidency’s plans.

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Rivalry Flares between the Russian Army and the Wagner Group

Author(s): Filip Bryjka,Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war; Wagner Group; Russian Army; rivalry;

The failures of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine have intensified disputes between Russian army leaders and the Yevgeny Prigozhin-led Wagner Group. Wagner has so far been useful in the fighting on difficult sections of the frontline in Ukraine, but it also has served the authorities by securing income and influence in Africa and the Middle East. Now, Vladimir Putin is diminishing Prigozhin’s achievements in Ukraine to prevent him from building an independent political position.

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Russia Threatens Ukraine with Nuclear Weapons

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia; war; nuclear weapons; threat;

Russian threats increase the risk of nuclear weapons being used against Ukraine, but it still appears to be remote. Such an attack most likely would be preceded by more direct signals than Putin’s ambiguous warnings. Although such a strike would not guarantee a Russian victory, Putin might still order it in an act of desperation. To counter this risk, Russia must be convinced that a nuclear attack on Ukraine will trigger a strong international response, including conventional military intervention by the U.S. and its allies.

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Russia Attempts Blackmail with Occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Zaporizhzhia; Ukraine; power plant; occupation;

Russia is trying to use the fear of a nuclear disaster at the Enerhodar power plant to reduce the scale of Western support for Ukraine and force it to accept unfavourable conditions for a possible ceasefire. The international community should adopt a two-track approach to counter this attempt. On the one hand, efforts should be made to increase the safety of the power plant by establishing a “safety and security protection zone” around it and, on the other hand, coordinate information activities to clearly indicate that Russia is solely responsible for the risk of nuclear catastrophe.

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Türkiye Aims to Join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

Author(s): Aleksandra Maria Spancerska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; China; Shanghai; cooperation;

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan once again declared his intent to join Turkey to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Erdoğan's earlier announcements in 2012 and 2016 did not lead to membership in the organisation. The declaration aims to mobilise conservative-nationalist voters and serves as a diplomatic tool towards Russia and Western countries.

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Series:PISM Bulletin

Tensions in U.S.-France Economic Transatlantic Cooperation are Returning

Triggering the Rule-of-Law Conditionality Mechanism against Hungary

Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports Require Further Refining

Reviewing the Russian Economy a Year After the Invasion of Ukraine

Türkiye’s Political Scene Prepares for May Elections

The Marathon of Strikes in France Hit President Macron’s Pension Reform

EU Smoothly Developing Military Mobility in Europe

Saudi Arabia’s Agreement with Iran Signals Policy Shift

South Korea and Japan Attempt to Mend Relations

Iran Continues Course as Half a Year of Protests Subside

South Africa-Russia Maintain Special Relations

Security Issues Still Key in U.S.-German Cooperation

Russia Turns Towards Eurasia in New Foreign Policy Concept

States Successfully Conclude Negotiations of the High Seas Treaty

Using Frozen Russian Assets to Rebuild Ukraine: Possibilities for the EU

Spain Strives to Boost the EU’s Relations with Latin America and the Caribbean

Rivalry Flares between the Russian Army and the Wagner Group

Russia Threatens Ukraine with Nuclear Weapons

Russia Attempts Blackmail with Occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

Türkiye Aims to Join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation