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Wagner Group Transforms in the Wake of the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war; Wagner Group; terrorism;

Composed of mercenaries, the Wagner Group is being used by the Russian government to carry out operations in Ukraine and strengthen Russia’s influence in Africa and the Middle East. Its overt participation in the war in Ukraine has forced a change in the nature of the group from an elite unit carrying out special operations tasks to an organisation utilising mass conscription of convicts sent to the frontline. Russia bears the legal responsibility for the Wagner Group’s war crimes. To limit the group’s freedom of action, the EU and the U.S. should recognise it as a terrorist organisation and extend sanctions to its affiliates.

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U.S. Re-Focuses Arctic Policy - The Consequences for Its Allies

Author(s): Paweł Markiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Arctic Policy; Biden Administration; Climate Change;

The Biden administration is increasing the U.S. capabilities in countering the effects of climate change in the Arctic, an aim overlapping the rivalry with Russia and China in this region. The U.S. announced increasing investments in infrastructure projects and defence, for example, modernising the Coast Guard’s Arctic fleet. The planned measures provide an opportunity for closer American cooperation with their allies and may mark the beginning of a regional division of labour in the area of shared defence.

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Ukraine Successful in Holding Russia to Account at the European Court of Human Rights

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia; Human Rights; War; ECHR; Accountability;

The decision of the European Court of Human Rights(ECtHR) issued on 25 January opens the way to hold Russia accountable for human rights violations in eastern Ukraine and order it to pay compensation. It also challenges numerous theses of Russian propaganda regarding Ukraine and the positions of countries sharing Russia’s point of view. At the same time, the decision reaffirms the importance of documenting the violations committed and the need to develop international mechanisms to pay compensation awarded in case Russia refuses to do so.

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Ukraine’s Reconstruction Already on the Agenda

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; War; Reconstruction; Agenda;

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine still ongoing, the international community is already preparing for the country’s reconstruction from the destruction of war. Earlier this year, the G7 countries established a platform to coordinate the future recovery of Ukraine. Still missing, nonetheless, is a decision regarding funding. Key to any successful reconstruction will be to provide post-war Ukraine with viable security guarantees, upon which the involvement of private investors will ultimately depend.

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West and China Compete for Tech Influence in Arab Persian Gulf States

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Arab Persian Gulf States; West; China; Technology; Influence;

New technologies are an increasingly important element of the Sino-American rivalry in the Persian Gulf. China has become the preferred partner in this area due to, for example, the dominant role of government (vs. private) investment in the technology sector in both China and the Gulf states. The intensification of cooperation between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and China in the field of new technologies may increase the influence of authoritarian states in setting technological standards.

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Regulation of Autonomous Weapons Faces Challenges

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: Autonomous Weapons; Regulation; International Law; Humanitarian Law;

The prospects for banning the development and use of autonomous weapons are currently dim, and international negotiations on regulating these processes have been at a standstill for several years. However, there is nothing to prevent existing international humanitarian law and norms on international responsibility from being applied to the use of these weapons. It would be advisable, though, for this possibility to be confirmed by as many states as possible, providing a common interpretation of the existing rules in a new context.

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Sanctions Against Russia: EU Seeks Coordination to Limit Circumvention

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Russia; sanctions;

The Russian authorities are constantly trying to circumvent EU economic restrictions. They use various methods of concealing trade in sanctioned goods, especially crude oil, including through companies from non-EU countries. The challenge for the EU is how to minimise these practices, which are facilitated by the differences between the Member States in detecting and pursuing such infringements. The Union should adopt common standards in this area as soon as possible. In coordination with the G-7, the EU could also add foreign companies participating in the circumvention schemes to sanctions lists.

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National Security Strategy: U.S. Focuses on Relations with Asia and Europe

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Europe; Asia; national security; strategy;

The latest U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) points to the crucial importance of the Asia-Pacific region for U.S. interests and the stability of the international order. At the same time, one of the messages of this key document is reassurance of European allies regarding the American commitment to NATO and Euro-Atlantic security. The strategy traditionally puts an emphasis on the need for Europeans to strengthen the Alliance’s conventional capabilities.

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What are the Prospects for Restricting the Entry of Russians to the EU?

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Russians; entry restriction; prospects;

A large number of Russian citizens have tried to enter EU territory since a mobilisation order was announced in their country. Member States, however, could not agree on the criteria for issuing visas. The Baltic states, Poland, and Finland settled on the strictest entry restrictions. Reaching consensus in the EU would be an important political signal to the Russian authorities. A coherent announcement on this issue could also shift the dissatisfaction of Russian society towards the elites responsible for the attack on Ukraine.

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GCC Countries, Seeking Food Security, Eye Agricultural Investments

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Keywords: GCC; food; security; economy; agriculture;

The growing consumption of food in the Gulf states is leading to the acquisition of foreign farmlands. This practice increases the Gulf states’ influence in African countries and the European neighbourhood. The competitiveness of their agricultural sector is also growing in relation to the less innovative European agriculture thanks to the development of technologies responding to difficult climatic conditions.

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Russians Against the War: Under the White-Blue-White Flag

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russians; Ukraine; war; policy;

Russians opposing the war in Ukraine use the white-blue-white flag (WBW) to identify themselves. It is used by a variety of circles, from democratic to radical, including groups admitting to guerrilla warfare in Russia and Russians fighting in Ukraine against Russian troops. Protesters against the invasion of Ukraine are a minority in Russian society. They can openly voice their views only outside the Russian Federation, so their actions do not translate into a change in Russian policy.

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Sub-Saharan Africa May Be a New Source of Gas for the EU

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; energy; gas;

In order to become independent from supplies of energy resources from Russia, EU countries are intensively looking for alternative gas import opportunities, including from Sub-Saharan Africa. This direction may become an important element of European diversification, but its development requires external investments and improvement and expansion of the existing infrastructure. European companies and the EU itself can play a key role in this regard.

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The Economy and Polarisation: U.S. Prepares for Midterm Elections

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; economy; policy; polarisation; elections;

In the upcoming November elections to the U.S. Congress, the Democrats are struggling to maintain control of both chambers, which would make it easier for President Joe Biden to continue his political agenda. The Republicans’ goal is to take control of at least one chamber. Gaining a majority in the House of Representatives would clear the way for them to fight for the presidency and full control of Congress in 2024. The issues playing the greatest role in the political debate before the elections are the state of the U.S. economy, the fight against crime and gun access, the right to abortion, and the scope of social and health care.

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Israel Prepares for the Next Knesset Elections

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; Knesset Elections; politics; polls; foreign policy; economy;

Pre-election polls indicate that neither the ruling parties supporting the current Prime Minister Yair Lapid, nor the parties supporting former PM Benjamin Netanyahu may gain a clear advantage in parliament. However, Netanyahu has a better chance of returning to power due to the coherence of his political bloc. The election campaign, more than in previous years, is focused on economic and foreign issues.

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Underestimated, Yet Irreplaceable: The OSCE Maintains Focus on the Human Dimension

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English

Keywords: OSCE; Ukraine; war; human rights;

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the escalation of conflicts in the South Caucasus and Central Asia undermine the effectiveness of OSCE, usually assessed through the prism of its politico-military dimension. However, the organisation’s activities within the human dimension confirm its purpose. While OSCE members generally agree that lasting security cannot be achieved without respect for human rights and democratic institutions, their practice raises many concerns. In this context, the OSCE remains in many cases the only support for human rights defenders in non-democratic countries.

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U.S. National Defense Strategy Prioritises Deterrence of China, Then Russia

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; defense; security; strategy; China; Russia; deterrence;

The new U.S. defence strategy prioritises the competition with China more clearly than previously and puts deterrence of Russia second. The U.S. is to still contribute to NATO with advanced capabilities but also is seeking a substantial increase in the conventional defence potential of the rest of the Allies. This is to strengthen deterrence by ensuring that NATO is able to defend against Russian aggression even if a majority of U.S. forces are engaged in a conflict in the Indo-Pacific.

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Iran Assists Russia with Weapons - the Military and Political Consequences

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Iran; Russia; war; weapons; assistance; military policy;

Iran is strengthening its informal alliance with Russia despite its initially cautious position on the war against Ukraine. The use of Iranian drones by Russia has been confirmed multiple times, and there are increased signals about the delivery to Russia of ballistic missiles. These systems will marginally affect the unfavourable military situation for Russia, but they likely will increase damage to Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and the risk of another refugee wave. In this context, there is an urgent need for assistance for Ukraine with counter-drone and missile defences, as well as a change of EU policy towards Iran on the issues of non-proliferation, its nuclear programme, and the internal situation.

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Microchips and Semiconductors: The U.S. Seeks Autonomy

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; economy; semiconductors; microchips; autonomy; policy;

The United States has turned to support of the domestic microchip industry in response to the increased risk of Chinese aggression against Taiwan, one of the leading producers, as well as to address disruptions in supply chains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. A law on this passed with bipartisan consent and is intended to help finance a more resilient American sector towards global changes in manufacturing these components. Thanks to the CHIPS Act, the U.S. can reduce its dependence on microchip imports and undermine China’s ability to dominate the market.

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Countries Seek Reforms of the International Public Health Governance System

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: Public health; governance; healthcare; policy; COVID-19;

To date, the results of efforts to improve the international community’s ability to prevent and respond to future pandemics show that countries do recognise the need to increase funding for these capabilities. However, they are much less unanimous about the scale and direction of changes to existing regulations in this sphere despite the fact that insufficiently precise responsibilities and lack of sanctions for not meeting them were the main reasons for the failure of efforts to contain the spread of COVID-19. Efforts to reform these regulations could be served by closer cooperation between the EU and the U.S.

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Finland Foreign Policy: Adjusting to (Not So) New Priorities

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: foreign policy; Finland; priorities; Russia; aggression; NATO; EU;

The war in Ukraine has led to a significant change in Finland’s long-standing Russia policy and triggered the landmark decision to apply for membership in NATO. At the same time, in response to the Russian aggression, Finland continues to build on existing processes of strengthening relations with the U.S. and Nordic partners and aiming to increase the EU’s effectiveness as an international actor. Convergence with Poland on the perception of threats, policy towards Russia and Ukraine, as well as common interests related to security, make Finland a natural and desired partner, not only in NATO but also in the EU.

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Series:PISM Bulletin

Wagner Group Transforms in the Wake of the War in Ukraine

U.S. Re-Focuses Arctic Policy - The Consequences for Its Allies

Ukraine Successful in Holding Russia to Account at the European Court of Human Rights

Ukraine’s Reconstruction Already on the Agenda

West and China Compete for Tech Influence in Arab Persian Gulf States

Regulation of Autonomous Weapons Faces Challenges

Sanctions Against Russia: EU Seeks Coordination to Limit Circumvention

National Security Strategy: U.S. Focuses on Relations with Asia and Europe

What are the Prospects for Restricting the Entry of Russians to the EU?

GCC Countries, Seeking Food Security, Eye Agricultural Investments

Russians Against the War: Under the White-Blue-White Flag

Sub-Saharan Africa May Be a New Source of Gas for the EU

The Economy and Polarisation: U.S. Prepares for Midterm Elections

Israel Prepares for the Next Knesset Elections

Underestimated, Yet Irreplaceable: The OSCE Maintains Focus on the Human Dimension

U.S. National Defense Strategy Prioritises Deterrence of China, Then Russia

Iran Assists Russia with Weapons - the Military and Political Consequences

Microchips and Semiconductors: The U.S. Seeks Autonomy

Countries Seek Reforms of the International Public Health Governance System

Finland Foreign Policy: Adjusting to (Not So) New Priorities