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If it was not for the coronavirus pandemic, 2019 and the beginning of 2020 wouldnot have been regarded in the international politics as overly exciting. One exceptionwas the American-Iranian crisis at the turn of 2019/20. America under Donald Trumpcontinued to waste its leadership capital at both global and transatlantic level. The Weststarted to show signs of its triple division into the US – Western Europe – and Central/Southern Europe, with the latter widening the distance from “old Europe” and shiftingpolitically towards a second class democracy at best. Under Viktor Orbán, Hungarybecame in a way the fi rst private state in contemporary Europe. Transition of power atthe top of EU institutions paralyzed the Union’s foreign activity. Russia, despite its ratherpoor domestic performance, was doing well internationally mainly due to the weakEU and the hectic American policy. China continued its stable course, although itseconomy was slowly losing its previous impetus. Thomas Hobbes’s visions of politicsseemed to settle down in the wider Middle East, where there were many mid- and microlevelconfl icts, clashes and tensions, and no hope for a clear weather. The coronaviruspandemic, which started during the fi rst months of 2020 and will last for a few monthsmore, will bring deep consequences for the global and national economies all overthe world as well as for international politics. However, COVID-19 driven changes needmore time for a credible assessment.
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The article discusses the evolution and functioning of the Common Securityand Defence Policy of the EU in 2019. The authors begin with an analysis of the maindeterminants of cooperation within CSDP, focusing on the impact of the perspectiveon Brexit as well as internal political changes and tensions in main European countries(France, Germany), and US-Europe relations. They discuss the evolution of the politicaldimension of European cooperation on security and defence, including the debates onEuropean strategic autonomy and changes in European institutions. They also presentthe development of PESCO, including the course of the debates on the participationof third states in this initiative, as well as it’s functioning in 2019. Additionally, theyanalyze current changes in operational activities (i.e. CSDP missions and operations),including modifi cations of key instruments for executing such actions, like the socalled Civilian Compact. In conclusion, they off er an overall assessment of the resultsand achievements of CSDP in 2019, together with a concise prognosis of its futuredevelopment.
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The article assesses the activity of the Security Council in 2019. It explains the reasonsbehind Russia’s and China’s vetoes concerning the situation in the Middle Eastand Venezuela, and the discussion blockade on the situation in Ukraine and Myanmar.It describes the main trends in decisions on country and regional situations, as wellas in the adoption of thematic resolutions. In addition, it summarizes the progressof peacekeeping operations and the impact of Polish membership in the SecurityCouncil. The article argues that some problems which cause political tension arecurrently “juridicized”; that Russia and China oppose inclusion of Human Rights issuesin the Security Council works; and that Poland concludes its membership with rathermeagre results.
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In 2019, the nuclear arms control architecture collapsed. The article presents the mostimportant examples of this process; fi rstly, the continuing destruction of the nuclearagreement with Iran – JCPOA – and no progress on full denuclearization of the KoreanPeninsula; secondly, compliance with the obligations arising from the New STARTwith no decisions regarding its future; and thirdly, US withdrawal from INF and itsultimate collapse.
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At the beginning of 2019, the EU faced substantial but defi ned challenges: Brexit, newleadership after the elections to the new Parliament, confronting the growing rift betweenthe two sides of the Atlantic. There was tension associated with predictions of a majorvictory for Eurosceptic parties, which would enable them to paralyze the EuropeanParliament. As the year progressed, distrust became gradually the central and majorfactor defi ning political decisions. This article provides insight into various dimensionsof this unfavourable situation that makes the EU not a good place to live: growingimpatience with the United Kingdom, mistrust undermining the Atlantic community,a widening Franco-German split. The last part sums up the fi fteen years of Polishmembership in the EU, emphasizing also the lack of basic trust as the dominating factorin the relations since 2015.
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2019 was dominated by political tensions and the impeachment process against PresidentDonald Trump – only a third such case in the history of the United States (US).The domestic struggle between Democrats and Republicans did not leave muchspace for the administration to conduct and implement its political goals in other areas.Despite growing rivalry between major world powers (US, China, Russia), includingincreasing tensions and confl icts on a global scale, US foreign policy remained onthe sidelines. However, the US economy continued to fl ourish, increasing the incumbentPresident’s chances for re-election in 2020. The goal of this paper is to analyze the USdomestic aff airs and its foreign policy through the events of 2019. The main hypothesisis that the initiation of the impeachment process was a manifestation of a politicalcrisis in the US but, due to good economic conditions, the charges against the USPresident carried negative consequences neither for the country’s domestic situationnor for the President himself. Rather, the impeachment trial resulted in a deepeningof the leadership crisis in the US and overall weakening of the country’s position onthe global scene.
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The still relatively weak public support for the government and the outbreak of localprotests were a source of concern for the Kremlin in 2019. Responding to those,the authorities tightened control over the Internet and launched a historical campaignto create an image of an external enemy. Above all, however, at the beginningof 2020, the Kremlin changed the government, initiated constitutional amendmentsand announced new social transfers. This was not only meant to meet the socialdemand for change, but also to prepare a process of power succession, which aimedin fact at guaranteeing the continuation of Putin’s rule. This process was acceleratedbecause the economy was stagnant, with no prospects of much improvement while newchallenges appeared on the horizon. In foreign aff airs, Russia continued its currentpolicy, abandoning hope for a breakthrough in relations with the US. However, it hopedthat growing transatlantic tensions and the fear of strengthening Russian-Chinesecooperation would lead European countries to revise their policy in a direction morefavourable for Moscow, which was reinforced by France’s initiatives to normalizerelations with Russia.
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This article aims to analyze the current situation in Eastern Europe and South Caucasusfrom the perspective of Russia’s foreign policy. The Russian Federation seeks torebuild its dominance in the post-Soviet area, in particular in Ukraine and Belarus,as well as in the countries belonging to the Eurasian Economic Union. While it doesnot have a hegemonic position in the region, its infl uence has a relatively limited butlasting character, all the more so due to European Union’s passivity and its lack of anyattractive and credible off er beyond association agreements, as well as the adventurismof the US policy under Donald Trump. In the coming years, Russia’s growing concernwill be the competition with China in the region.
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Thirty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the German reunifi cation a year later,the Federal Republic of Germany is facing new challenges in internal and foreignpolicy. The main goal of this article is to describe the trends and key events shapingboth these spheres. Firstly, the author describes the evolution of the German partysystem as well as the emergence of the climate policy as a key issue infl uencing voters’preferences. The second part of the article focuses on the way Germany is graduallyadapting to new global realities in which globalization is accompanied by growingrivalry of global and regional powers. Following a two-way strategy, Angela Merkel’sgovernment tries, on the one hand, to protect the multilateral order and, on the other, toreconcile contradictory interests in relations with China and Russia while maintainingstrategic alliance with France and the USA. In the meantime, Germany is awaitinga new political era after chancellor Merkel leaves offi ce, which may prevent the FederalRepublic from taking bolder steps in foreign policy until a new political constellationemerges. However, Brexit and the decision on Huawei and ZTE participation in buildinga German 5G network might speed up the process of defi ning the role of post-MerkelGermany in world politics.
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The article discusses the basic rationale for China’s policy towards the major internationalactors: the United States, Russia, and the European Union. This fi rst part is followed by anin-depth analysis of China’s behaviour within the format of peripheral diplomacy withJapan and the Korean Peninsula as well as with Vietnam and the Philippines in South--East Asia. The major argument in the article is based on the assumption that, throughregional initiatives like the Code of Conduct, Beijing is looking for more infl uencein the region to limit and balance Washington’s position in the East Asia region.
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2019 brought massive and fi erce protests to Hong Kong. Contentious politics in thisSpecial Administrative Region of China should be seen through the deep changesin Hong Kong’s society and politics after the Handover. Mainlandization of the regionis met with public resistance. This article underlines the economic, social and politicalreasons of this resistance and the growth of radical politics in Hong Kong, and it discussesthe changes in tactics of the protesters.
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The collapse of existing political and social structures in the Middle East creates spacefor seeking new systemic solutions. For many countries, this is an opportunity tochange their position and international roles in the region. Especially Iran and Turkeyhave become very active, seeking to strengthen their regional position. Being twoof the largest countries in the Middle East, their actions entail consequences that gobeyond the region, thus becoming the subject of non-regional powers.
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The article discusses Poland’s foreign policy in 2019/2020. The government continued itsEurosceptical policy, getting involved in numerous confl icts with European institutionsand showing scepticism towards further deepening of European integration. Mucheff ort was put into the relations with the United States, especially in the area of security.The eff ectiveness of regional forums proved to be limited. The policy towards easternneighbours was determined mainly by historical problems.
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The evolution of Polish defence policy and strategy after 1989 has had three mainphases. In the 1990s, the most important problem was the independence of Polishthinking and strategic practice after four decades of incapacitation in the conditionsof membership in the Warsaw Pact. The fi rst fi fteen years of the 21st century werea time of allied integration in NATO and the EU. Since 2014, there has been a periodof strategic adaptation to new security conditions, including hybrid threats, imposedby Russia’s confrontational policy towards the West. During this period there hasalso been a radical internal change in Polish politics related to the rise to powerof the Law and Justice party. The most important challenges in the fi eld of defencepolicy and strategy today are: ensuring a state rather than party approach to nationalsecurity, restoring international credibility, especially among NATO and EU allies,and repairing civilian and democratic control over the armed forces.
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The fi rst three decades after the fall of communism proved to be a good time forPoland’s security, which greatly benefi ted from the relaxation of international politics,and rebuilt its sovereign foreign and security policy. The country effi ciently reorganizedits relations with its neighbouring states, consolidated its own borders and rejectedold military and economic alliances. The net cost of this process was the lastingand progressive deterioration of relations with the heir of the Soviet Union and the largestneighbour – the Russian Federation. Rationalization and reduction of the armed forceswas possible due to progressive demilitarization of security in Europe, and it helpedrelease funds for other state needs. The processes were made possible thanks to a broaddomestic political consensus. The Polish transformation, although socially costly, hasmade it a democratic, free-market, and pluralistic state, strongly anchored in NATOand the EU as well as in regional cooperation, and selectively engaged in the globalagenda. Overtime, Poland has become a respected member of the Western communityof states, occasionally punching above its weight in transatlantic relations.
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The article presents the fundamental political confl icts that have structured Poles’electoral preferences in the last thirty years. The author indicates deep-seatedeconomic, social and political reasons of the confl icts. Based on Lipset and Rokkan’sclassical theory of socio-political cleavages, he states that the dynamics of Poles’electoral preferences in 1989–2020 has been shaped by three basic distinctions.In the years 1989–2001, the postcommunist cleavage had the most fundamentalimpact; in 2005–2011, the division between liberal Poland and solidary Poland cameto the fore, and in 2015–2020, voters’ political choices were determined by the enmitybetween two camps: the supporters and the opponents of the Law and Justice party(PiS). The essence of the latter cleavage is, on the one hand, a very strong identifi cationof many millions of Poles with the ruling Law and Justice, and on the other hand, anequally strong hostility towards the party evident in a similar portion of the population.
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After 1989, Poland’s regime, its political system, governing mechanisms, and itsadministrative system have undergone a peaceful change of a revolutionary nature.The rejection of the solutions typical of a socialist state and their replacement withmechanisms of a democratic state, governed by the rule of law, has progressed in threestages: systemic changes, European transformation, and qualitative modernization.The economic system as well as the organization, principles, and standards of operationof public institutions have been radically reshaped. Three constitutional regimes havesucceeded one after another. On the political scene, after a period of fragmentation,there emerged two blocs, both internally non-uniform and strongly opposed to oneanother. Bitter rivalry surfaced between the supporters of the liberal and pro-Europeandirection and the proponents of the conservative project that emphasized particularismsand focused on threats to national interests. Poland’s parliamentary cabinet system,with its separation of powers, dual executive and a strong local government, gave riseto a polycentric, multilayered and multilane model of government that was fi rmlygrounded in a constitutional model but still not immune to threats in practice. After2015, political power has been given to the leader of the biggest party in the Parliament,who is free of any constitutional responsibility; attempts to do away with the separationof powers have also got more aggressive. The will of the people has been interpreted assynonymous with immediate interests of the dominating party. Attempts to eliminateminority voices from the discussion of public matters have been many and evident.The overall positive outcome of the Polish transformation does not excuse the researcherfrom evaluating in an exhaustive manner and continuously identifying the criticalpoints and strategic challenges that Poland faces in the domain of governing.
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Foreign policy of independent Poland after 1989, at a time when the previous bipolarsystem was disintegrating and America had its unipolar moment: priorities, buildingof the foreign service before joining NATO and the EU; shaping of the new internationalorder in the beginning of the 21st century, growing uncertainty and unpredictabilityin international relations, Law and Justice’s and its political satellites’ foreign policy;threats to Polish national interests.
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This text off ers an analysis of the outcomes of transformation in Poland in the fi eldsof education and science, namely: general education, professional education, highereducation, and science. The author discusses Poland’s major strengths in these fi eldsand its most striking weaknesses.
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