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W kontekście długookresowym członkostwo Polski w Unii Europejskiej wpłynęło pozytywnie na prawie wszystkie sfery polskiej gospodarki. Poprawie uległa również sytuacja polskich przedsiębiorstw. Warto jednak pamiętać, że na pełne podsumowanie skutków członkostwa jest zbyt wcześnie. Ponadto poszczególne efekty niekiedy trudno wyraźnie przypisać samemu przystąpieniu do UE, ponieważ gospodarka państwa zależy od bardzo wielu czynników – koniunktury na rynkach zagranicznych, stanu uregulowań prawnych w kraju, sytuacji na rynku pracy, struktury sektora przedsiębiorstw, czynników instytucjonalnych – w tym politycznych czy nawet geograficznych. Nie można również zapominać o dużym wpływie kryzysu na zmniejszenie oddziaływania niektórych czynników (spadek inwestycji, wzrost bezrobocia). Artykuł przedstawia m.in. kanały wpływu akcesji na sektor przedsiębiorstw, wpływ członkostwa Polski w UE na jakość otoczenia makroekonomicznego, wzrost wymiany handlowej, napływ bezpośrednich inwestycji zagranicznych, innowacyjność polskich przedsiębiorstw, oraz jest próbą bilansu tytułowego zagadnienia.
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Celem artykułu jest oszacowanie poziomu bezrobocia równowagi w Polsce w latach 1996–2012. W artykule została podjęta również próba zbadania wpływu odsetka bezrobotnych długookresowo oraz poziomu aktywności zawodowej na poziom bezrobocia równowagi. Szacunki bezrobocia równowagi zostały przeprowadzone zgodnie z modelem VAR. W analizach empirycznych zostały wykorzystane kwartalne dane publikowane przez GUS. Struktura opracowania jest następująca. W punkcie 1 przedstawiono rozważania teoretyczne dotyczące determinatów bezrobocia równowagi. Punkt 2 jest poświęcony analizie tendencji zmian stóp bezrobocia w Polsce. W punkcie 3 zostały przedstawione wyniki oszacowań bezrobocia równowagi w Polsce i w wybranych krajach UE. W punkcie tym podjęto również próbę zbadania wpływu poziomu aktywności zawodowej i odsetka bezrobotnych długookresowo na poziom bezrobocia równowagi. W zakończeniu zawarto wnioski z przeprowadzonych analiz.
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W niniejszym artykule zostanie przyjęta definicja oraz komponenty flexicurity zaproponowane przez Komisję Europejską. Wybór ten uzasadnia przede wszystkim fakt, iż przyczynkiem do powstania tego artykułu jest dekada członkostwa Polski, Litwy, Łotwy i Estonii w Unii Europejskiej i zasadne wydaje się przyjęcie perspektywy aprobowanej przez tę instytucję. Punktem odniesienia do dokonania oceny poziomu elastyczności polskiego, łotewskiego i estońskiego rynku pracy będą duńskie wskaźniki ochrony stosunku pracy.
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The phenomenon of irregular immigration in the EU constitutes a domain where the results emerging from social science research and the priorities driving current policy-making processes rarely coincide. The vulnerability of third-country nationals (TCNs) lacking a regular status of entry or stay (or both) (i.e. undocumented migrants) and the negative impact of certain irregular immigration policies on the access of undocumented TCNs to basic socio-economic (fundamental) rights have been repeatedly pointed out by academics and civil society organisations across Europe during the last few years. The Justice and Home Affairs Section ofthe Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) published a report entitled Undocumented Immigrants and Rights in the EU: Addressing the Gap between Social Science Research and Policy-making in the Stockholm Programme in December 2009, underlining ‘the policy gap’ between EU policies on irregular immigration and social science research funded by different directorates-general of the European Commission.
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Following the Second World War, work forces in more developed countries needed labour to reconstruct and further drive their economies, and to satisfy this demand, labour was increasingly imported from less developed countries, and the phenomenon of “labour migration” was thus born. For the receiving countries, this was a simple way to meet a transitional demand for labour, and for the sending countries – one of which was Turkey – it was a way of easing off population and unemployment pressures as well as an opportunity for generating hard foreign currency for the economy. The migrant workers were expected to provide financial support to their families left behind and to invest in their home countries (see Akgunduz, 2013:195).
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Turkey signed its first immigration and labour force exchange agreement with Germany in 1961, followed by similar agreements signed with the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Austria, France and Sweden. Belgium has been one of the destinations for Turkish immigrants. According to the Turkish Embassy in Brussels a total of approximately 180,000 Turkish people live in Belgium (Turkish Embassy in Brussels, 2014). Similar to Germany, the Netherlands and France where a large volume of Turkish immigration was allowed, distinctive characteristics of Turkish immigration evident in Belgium. Turks arrived and settled in certain parts of Belgium due to family ties and networks. Half of Turkish people in Belgium live in the Dutchspeaking Flemish Region, 25 % in Brussels and 25% in the French-speaking Valloon Region (Kanmaz, 2003; Aydın and Manço, 2002).
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In Germany, the second-generation migrants’ share of the overall population is growing fast and, among them, those of Turkish origin represent the largest group. They are also the group with the lowest labour market outcomes, and this holds especially true for secondgeneration Turkish women. Of all the ethnic groups, their employment rate and hourly income are the lowest (Algan et al., 2010; Seibert, 2011), while their chances of attaining non-manual employment positions do not differ from those of native-born German women (Seibert, 2011). In addition, they have a higher risk of unemployment and being a housewife (Fincke 2009; Haug 2002), and they have the highest out of labour force rate (Luthra 2013). In comparison, other second-generation women in Germany of Iberian, Greek, or Yugoslavian origin, have less pronounced disadvantages (Heath et al. 2008). While the disadvantages of second-generation Turkish women have also been found for the Netherlands, Belgium, and Austria (Heath et al. 2008), nothing is known about the development of these disadvantages over the course of their employment careers.
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During the last three decades, the phenomenon of flexibility has attracted a great deal of attention in sociology, not only in relation to work flexibility but also flexibility of migration. In this respect, the structural changes in both employment relationships and migratory conditions have brought about new lifestyles. The theoretical debates in the field of migration studies and human capital have often concentrated on the (changing) roles of nation-states, transnational corporations, and recruitment agencies at the macro level. Sassen (1988; 1998) observed two critical social classes and their spatial polarization in transnational migration. People from low income groups are employed in low-skilled service jobs. In contrast, there are newly emerging high income segments employed in professions. This latter group are also the “young urban professionals” (yuppies) who tend to be portrayed as enjoying affluent lifestyles (Robinson, 2009).
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Immigrants, especially refugees are the first and easist disadvantage groups who are targeted the focus of prejudice and mostly discriminations. Besides the many others, the economy became the leading matter. The natives tend to think that they lost their jobs because of new comers who are also the reason of rising inflation, decreasing wages etc.
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Migration is the main of events that communities have mostly had from past to today. Many economic, social, cultural and politic reasons such as wars, natural disasters, climate conditions, earthquakes, unemployment, education are accelerant factors in national and international, massive or individual migration acts.
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There is more than one definition for ‘migration’. Depending on how one handles the definition of the approach also changes. Reaching a consensus on a perfect definition of migration is almost impossible, since it has too many aspects to consider. In a very broad sense, migration can be defined as the process of the movement and the adaptation of people who move from one place to another for a set of reasons, including but not limited to fulfilling their needs, over a specific period of time (Brown & Moore, 1970). Whichever the definition of migration is taken into account, it is an event that changes almost everything both in the lives of migrating people and the people on the route. In a way, understanding the diachronic changes in history is achieved by looking at the migrations; people arriving at a place tend to change and cause some changes in the culture of the people that dwell in that place which creates a “Demographic Whirlwind” which can be both an opportunity or a threat (Morland, 2014, p. 8).
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