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Azerbaijan: Just Boxticking

Author(s): Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

This section presents how budget support has been used in Azerbaijan. The EU has planned relatively modest financial resources for Azerbaijan in the scope of budget support. This is not only due to the fact that it is the wealthiest country in the EaP region and can finance its own ongoing reforms but also because of its limited absorption capacity and the execution of the “more for more” rule. Azerbaijan has oil and gas reserves that provide significant revenue to the budget and it has a relatively stable economy. This, unlike other EaP countries, implies no great interest on the government’s behalf for financial assistance from the EU. Moreover, contractual relations with the EU are not as dense as, for instance, with Georgia or Moldova. Azerbaijan does not aim to integrate economically with the EU, therefore the scope of potential legal approximation is limited. In the years 2007–2013, four operations took place of the overall planned amount of €60 million (which is almost half of all EU assistance planned in Azerbaijan in this period), while only one operation in energy was finalised.

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Ancheta

Author(s): Hugó Ágoston,Adâm Anavi,Imre József Balázs,Béla Bíró,Mircea Cărtărescu,Péter Demény,Paul Drumaru,Läng Zsolt,Martin Mircea,Carmen Mușat,Anamaria Pop,Ion Pop,Mircea Popa,Júlia Szilágyi,Szabolcs Szonda,Geo Șerban,Júlia Vallasek,Daniel Vighi,András Visky / Language(s): Romanian Publication Year: 0

Investigations by: Âgoston Hugo, Anavi Âdâm, Balâzs Imre-Jôzsef, Biro Béla, Mircea Cărtărescu, Demény Péter, Paul Drumaru, Läng Zsolt, Mircea Martin, Carmen Mușat, Anamaria Pop, Ion Pop, Mircea Popa, Szilâgyi Julia, Szonda Szabolcs, Geo Șerban, Vallasek Jûlia, Daniel Vighi, Visky Andrâs.

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Georgia's Convergence with the European Union: Export Challenges

Author(s): Nino Papachashvili,Tamta Mikaberidze,Marine Tavartkiladze / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The paper aims to identify Georgia's export challenges in the context of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) and to present the theoretical findings for the assessment the results of the Georgia’s convergence to the EU under the free trade conditions. In order to assess its impact on export, the paper provides a comparative analysis of the results of the sociological survey of Georgian exporters conducted in 2016 and 2022 and also, an experimental study on the impact of institutional distance on export. Among the important findings are: exporters with more than 5 years of experience (mostly considering sanitary and phytosanitary standards) were positively affected by institutional proximity and export flows are in positive correlation with the state effectiveness (according to the WGI) in partner countries.

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What Happened to Bulgaria and the Eurozone

Author(s): Yanko Hristozov / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The topic of the adoption of the euro in Bulgaria is as well-worn as it is relevant with each subsequent year because the country is on the threshold of the euro zone, but something is still missing. Expectations for admission at the beginning of 2024 turned out to be impossible because Bulgaria did not meet the requirements for inflation levels, although it was exemplary in this indicator in recent years. It turned out that all efforts were in vain, but there is still hope that within one to two years the economic indicators will stabilize and the country will become a full member of the Eurozone. The purpose of this report is to examine the state of convergence indicators in Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania for the period 2020-2022 and to try to trace the reasons for our not being admitted to this monetary union, which is so important to us.

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Transition to Payments for Russian Gas in Rubles: One Step Beyond

Author(s): Vasily Tkachev / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Russia has long dominated in the supply of gas to many European countries, at the same time being heavily dependent on the foreign currency revenues from gas exports to cover its foreign currency demand. Therefore the Russia-Europe gas trade was considered mutually beneficial. Geopolitical tensions of spring 2022 changed this status quo. Russia required gas to be paid in rubles. The paper lays out an analytical framework for understanding the reasons and consequences of this drastic move based on the combination of macro- and micro-level challenges. We argue that the new mechanism of the Russian gas payments introduced in 2022 should be considered transitional to a potential future radical overhaul of the payments for Russian exports.

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Convergence of the GDP Structures of CEE Countries to the Euro Area

Author(s): Nikolay Velichkov,Dimitar Damyanov D. / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

This paper attempts to find out to what extent CEE countries are converging towards the euro area in terms of their GDP structures. To achieve our objectives, we use a beta-convergence econometric approach that relies on fixed effects panel data estimation. We estimate a simple equation for all GDP structures and compare the results between two groups of countries. The results obtained from the empirical analysis indicate that there is a process of beta convergence in the GDP structures of the CEE countries towards the euro area. The intensity of this process shows certain specifics both in relation to the countries in and outside the euro area, and in relation to individual structural components. The increasing structural similarity does not exclude the manifestation of certain negative influences on macroeconomic dynamics, which could reduce the intensity of the real convergence process.

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THE COMMON EUROPEAN SECURITY UNDER THE CORONA VIRUS PANDEMIC MASK

Author(s): Bogdan-Cezar CHIOSEAUA / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

A safer Europe in a better world” were the words that one could hear in December 2003 at the General Council of the European Union, when the “European Security Strategy" was adopted. It represented a historic moment in which clear targets were set for ensuring security, common threats were identified and principles were promoted in order to give the European Union the status of regional and global “anchor of stability”.Five years later, at the presentation of the first report regarding the strategy implementation, the heads of state and government reached a common conclusion, that the world is in a continuous, accelerated and varied change, and ensuring security in such environment becomes a challenge, a desideratum for which all member countries must contribute. Today, the world is neither better nor safer. An unexpected blow, the Coronavirus pandemic has been applied to the political, economic and military interests that are shaking the foundations of the “European Union Pantheon”, and its effects are felt in all countries, regardless of their level of development or contribution to the European Union budget.

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VIEWS ON THE MANAGEMENT OF THE CURRENT PANDEMIC CRISIS

Author(s): TĂNASE Tiberiu,Ovidiu Boureanu / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

In this paper we have focused on the major challenge of the 21st century, namely the COVID-19 viral pandemic. We aimed to analyze the vast problem from several angles using resources from media, international and local organizations, global reflection centers, think tanks and others. Our aim was to search on the subject and evidence the role played by the international organizations in the fight against the pandemic COVID-19. We also evaluate the situation and challenges in the field of public health that influences national security, affecting the citizens state of health, nations and national states. After a period of 100 years of free pandemic, our world is in uncharted teritories as the new virus COVID 19 become an omnipresent element of grave concern.

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POTENTIAL NEW SOURCES OF POWER IN INTERNATIONAL POLITICS. CASE STUDY: COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND HEALTH RESOURCES

Author(s): Alexandra SARCINSCHI / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

This paper argues that there is a potential new source of power, especially of hard power, that is specific to contemporary security environment characterized by the threat of COVID-19 pandemic. The starting premise is that the health system resources are a potential new source of hard power for a state actor to promote its foreign policy based on inducements or rewards. In terms of J. S. Nye Jr., health system resources might be used as a bribe or promise not for military or economic assistance (as specific to hard power), but for medical/humanitarian assistance. Therefore, the paper starts with a brief theoretical overview of the power concept and sources of power and continues with an analysis of the way in which a pandemic affects the international politics, especially the COVID-19 one.

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COVID-19: PROPAGANDA AND THE FEAR-FACTOR IN THE INTERNATIONAL AGENDA – A PERSONAL EXPERIENCE

Author(s): Urushadze Maia / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

At the start of 2019, when humanity was not yet sharply facing the threat of COVID, the security paradigm showed a tendency to change. In particular, in recent years, as far back as the beginning of last year, the attention of security experts has been focused on qualitatively new challenges. It is natural that COVID-19 pandemic has already changed the safety requirements of the world. Societies have changed in each country, in particular human relations, culture, and rules. The domestic and foreign policies of the states, border regulations, and the specifics of transportation have also changed. Besides, the most important social factor can be considered that a new struggle of interpretations has been activated in the media agenda. The worldwide international media agenda observation reveals that there are a lot of conspiracy theories have been developed around the pandemic virus, which strengthens mainstream ideological narratives through the fear factor. They have appealed to the fears in two conflicting directions and developed relevant interpretations in societies globally, within states. In this power struggle of interpretations, it is seen that the pandemic has imposed new responsibilities on the ruling elites, but also gives visible advantages to all local authorities. In particular, it is in their hands that the powerful, fear-backed levers of management are accumulated, with the help of which it is possible to strengthen the power. In the article is given the case of author’s personal experience.

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REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE BLACK SEA – SOLUTIONS FOR THE FUTURE: THE SECURITY, STRATEGIES AND FORCES BALANCE

Author(s): Mihai PANAIT,Ion ROCEANU / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The post-pandemic period of COVID-19, in addition to profoundly changing international relations (especially globalization), brought a new perspective on the relationship among the concepts of regionalization, regionalization of security, new strategies and doctrines (to support them in the conditions of changing the level of operation imposed by COVID-19) as well as the type of new military equipment that will be found in the multi-annual procurement plans. The nature of the threats acquires a new nuance with the appearance of this pandemic and soon puts in front of the politico-military decision-makers, new reference points that will bring to the level of these days the fundamental documents (strategies, planning directives, procurement programs) that will support budgetary planning for the coming decades, research and innovation (to develop new platforms, sensors, and weapons with a small number of combatants), and new aspects of diminishing international and regional cooperation in favor of unilateral action. From now on, the new dimensions of the defense budget will have to contain other elements adapted to the COVID-19 fight.

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EURASIA – THE GEOPOLITICAL AND GEOSTRATEGIC BET OF THE 21st CENTURY

Author(s): Silviu Neguț / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Eurasia, the super continental mass that holds the largest share in the world`s size, population and economic power, has become the main region of interest on the planet. Within it, several geopolitical - geostrategic areas/regions have been mainly configured with great relevance (each with its actors/players - including some from outside this area - and with its problems/interests), such as North-East Asia, Central Asia, South-East Asia, Middle East, the Indian Ocean, Western Pacific, South China Sea, East China Sea, the Black Sea, the Arctic Ocean, etc. The first two decades of the 21st century, in addition to the spectacular economic assertion of some particular Asian countries, have increased the dynamism and complexity of the security environment around the world, largely due to some events that previously occurred in Eurasia: The Georgia war (2008), Russia`s takeover of Crimea (2014), US President Donald Trump`s unsuccessful attempts to ease relations with North Korea, China and Russia, tensions in the Middle East, the contradictory effects of the “greatest geo-economics project of the 21st century” - the New Silk Road), etc. Here, too, the game takes place between the two great present and future powers, the United States and China, and this game depends, or at least is influenced by other Eurasian actors.

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NATIONAL LEVEL IMPLEMENTATION OF DIGITAL DIPLOMACY MECHANISMS AND FUNCTIONS BASED ON EU EXPERIENCE

Author(s): Victor Adrian VEVERA / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

As information and communication technology has developed, its impact has been felt in many areas, including international relations. In the diplomatic field, changes have not been long in coming, while many European countries pioneering the use of the online environment to promote national interests and achieve foreign policy objectives. In this paper, we aim to highlight the main benefits of developing the field of digital diplomacy, the biases that the process has generated and to argue the urgent need to implement these technologies in Romania, based on existing experience in various EU countries.

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INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS THEORY AND ITS LIMITS IN FORECASTING CHINESE BEHAVIOR TOWARDS THE US. THE CASE OF BALANCE OF POWER THEORY AND POWER TRANSITION THEORY

Author(s): Maria Mădălina Bulancia / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The literature on international relations pays special attention to China's rise since the "opening of China" in 1978, trying to identify and make predictions about China's behavioral patterns in its relationship with the United States and the current international system. Not surprisingly, international relations theories have been considered – from Morgenthau to present –, useful tools for predicting the evolution of major events in the international relations system. Using different theoretical lenses we can infer different outcomes regarding the complicated US-China relationship especially now, when the Chinese economic and social transformation seems to be accompanied by a revival of its own traditional concepts aimed at formulating a „Chinese school”, of international relations, characterized by the rejection of the realist assumptions that point almost every time to an imminent confrontation and placing both countries on even more profoundly contrasting positions. Therefore, starting from the balance of power theory and the power transition theory, this article aims to identify the extent to which the two theories prove explanatory and predictive value and can be useful tools for inferring China's behavior in the context of the current aggressive discourse that characterizes the relationship between the two countries. Also, this paper is aiming to analyze the limits we can identify in the existing literature on both theories.

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PANDEMIC INFLUENZA, A THREAT TO INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Author(s): Mihaiela BUȘE / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The Covid-19 pandemic has hit the international community, causing a terrible shock among people everywhere. An invisible enemy that has spread all over the globe and left behind death and suffering, lockdown, unemployment, weakened national economies, a whole new depressing and frightening reality. Were there any other pandemics? Could this pandemic have been better managed? Has this threat been identified in national security strategies? Did the states act separately or unitarily? After almost two years, were there lessons learned? I reviewed the US national security strategies from 1987 to 2021 in order to see if the pandemics were mentioned as threats to the security of the American people. Then I did the same with Romania's last two security strategies. I looked for documents that showed the interest of states for the consequences of a pandemic similar with the one in 1918, which would show that pandemics were perceived as security threats before theCovid-19 pandemic broke out. I also looked for concrete actions of the states for the management of a pandemic, pandemic preparedness plans. I also highlighted the challenges states were facing following the outbreak of theCovid-19 pandemic in the medical field and in the economy. Although the management of the pandemic was initially a race against the clock, each country trying to cope with the large number of people hospitalized and lacking medical equipment, it later became clear that cooperation between states and organizations and mutual aid is the solution to get out faster from this health crisis.

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TURKISH INTERVENTION IN SYRIA AND GEOSTRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS ON THE EUROPEAN UNION

Author(s): Andrei-Cristian Moraru / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Operation "Peace Spring" is an event of major importance in understanding the relationship between Turkey and Syria, the future relations between the two states and the European and international community. Turkey's design of a security zone has created stability for the state in question and destabilized the entire region at the societal level. Thus, the instability generated is a vulnerability for European and international security and can be exploited by countries that oppose the democratization process or countries that have political and financial interests in that area. In today's society, disinformation is a real risk, being a measure implemented by many state and non-state actors in order to achieve security objectives. The phenomenon is also present in the current case study, playing an important role in the evolution of regional instability. The implications for the European Union security stem from soft-power influences in the collective minds of imperialist states that threaten the continent, the continued disinformation of policymakers, and the influence of decision-making in democratic states. The Operation set a precedent for the current military conflicts in the vicinity of Romania, being visible the intention of the Russian Federation to create a "safety zone", following the recent expansion of democratic and societal values.

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US-ROMANIAN RELATIONS – STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP

Author(s): Gabriel GABOR / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

In this paper, we aim to analyze the evolution of the Strategic Partnership between Romania and the United States of America. Launched on 11 July 1997, the partnership was a political and diplomatic platform for cooperation between the two countries. The novelty of this article is the SWOT analysis of the Strategic Partnership but also it's deepening. We propose that the Strategic Partnership be institutionalized and instrumentalized in the form of a new format for cooperation and collaboration. One of the three pillars of our country's foreign policy is the privileged relationship with the United States of America, which must be deepened and developed. The Strategic Partnership concluded between Romania and the United States of America is the only certitude for our country to survive as a state, and to preserve its entire territory. This year we celebrate 25 years since this partnership emerged on the stage of History. Now, as we experience uncertain times marked by fierce geopolitical competition, it is high time we developed and formalized our Strategic Partnership. Not that we want to minimize NATO’s role, but the Alliance without the United States does not have the strength to oppose multiple challenges at international level. The Strategic Partnership strengthens our country’s profile while being the certitude of our country’s preserving its territorial integrity, and full sovereignty. The bilateral relationship has become a model of diplomatic cooperation and has manifested itself in various domains, political, military, economic, informational, environmental, social, and cultural.

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THE EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR WAR AND THE IMPACT ON THE SOCIAL ORGANISATION OF THE MODERN NATION-STATE

Author(s): Mario MARINOV / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The prospect of a nuclear conflict can be viewed as a concept of terrifying significance to civilisation. It is a contingency that is the antithesis to human existence in organised societies. The following paper is an examination of the effects, which can be brought upon mankind through the large-scale deployment of nuclear weapons and the impact upon the structure of modern civilisation, viewed through the lens of organisation theory. The paper presents some of the principal short-term and long-term consequences from the utilisation of nuclear weapons, based upon research covering the past five decades. The paper examines the impact of nuclear weapons on society by presenting the modern nation-state as a complex social organisation, whose social structure and complexity would be severely degraded. The paper concludes that the deployment of nuclear weapons in the modern era would have consequences of utmost severity in transforming national societies and the nation-state, severely altering, or outright eliminating their ability to function effectively and necessitating societal readjustment and even devolution to ensure survival.

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BOOSTING REGIONAL LABOUR MARKET VIA FOREIGN INVESTMENT: EVIDENCE FROM THE LIBEREC REGION

Author(s): Sylvie Kotikova,RENATA ČUHLOVÁ / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The paper evaluates the impact of primary jobs created in foreign direct investments localized in the Liberec region of the Czech Republic. The research sample includes 25 foreign direct investments that received investment incentive in the analyzed period 2002- 2014.With a choice of such a sample conclusions about the benefits from investment incentives can be drew. Based on comparative analysis of information from the annual reports of companies and Czech Statistical Office data and Czech Invest, the direct effect of jobs´ creation in foreign direct investment on unemployment in the region is quantified. The contribution of these investments to solution of the unemployment problem is illustrated in a hypothetical rate of unemployment. It displays the situation of the regional labour market in case of an absence of these investments. The comparative analysis of foreign direct investment´s data from the time period 2002-2014 shows reduction of the regional unemployment rate by about 3% annually on average. This quantified impact is caused by creation of 4.500 job positions on average.

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Foreign Capital Inflows and Domestic Savings in Turkey

Author(s): Özcan Karahan / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Since a high level of financial funding is needed to stimulate investment and thus enhance economic growth, most of the developing countries have sought to attract foreign capital to their financial system. Accordingly, after the implementation of different policies aiming the country to be attractive for foreign funds, Turkey have attracted huge financial capital to the own economy over the last decades. This study aims to determine the impact of capital inflows on total saving in Turkey by using ARDL Bound Testing Approach for quarterly data between 2002 and 2018. Empirical findings indicated that capital inflows to Turkey could not create the positive effect on total saving as much as expected from them. This is because foreign funds provided by capital inflows to Turkey had a substitution effect rather than completing domestic savings in the Turkish Economy. This result also shows that external dependence and thus fragility of financial markets in Turkey have significantly increased. Therefore, it is necessary to give priority to policies related to the management of capital inflows in order to ensure financial stability and achieve sustainable growth in Turkey.

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