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Italy Reworks Energy Policy after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine forced the Italian authorities to quickly seek alternative gas supplies and sparked a debate about the risks of dependence on foreign commodities. Despite favourable natural conditions, both the development of renewable energy sources (RES) and domestic gas production are hampered by bureaucratic obstacles and opposition in local communities. Continued dependence on energy imports will eventually push Italy to normalise relations with Russia.

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Congress Key to U.S. Support for Ukraine One Year After the Russian Invasion

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The Republicans’ majority in the House of Representatives may slow down or reduce American support for Ukraine. The problem is not only the opposition of some Republicans to the assistance itself but above all, the attempts to reduce budget expenditures and reduce the deficit. This may prompt the Biden administration to use the approved funds sparingly and provide only the most necessary elements of support for fear that Congress will not allocate additional funds before the next fiscal year.

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EU Still Receiving Russian LNG

Author(s): Marianna Skoczek-Wojciechowska / Language(s): English

Even without an EU ban on the imports of Russian gas in 2022, pipeline deliveries fell by over 80%. However, this did not eliminate the EU’s dependence on gas from Russia because at the same time, the Union recorded a record increase in LNG imports from this country. This trend goes against the EU’s efforts to diversify supply directions. It is important for the European Commission (EC) to encourage the Member States more strongly to abandon Russian LNG and strengthen European solidarity through joint gas purchases using the EU Energy Platform, as well as through the development of an LNG benchmark.

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Russia Suspends the New START Treaty

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Russia’s groundless suspension of the Russia-U.S. Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) is yet another attempt to intimidate the West with nuclear weapons. By threatening an arms race, Russia seeks to force concessions regarding Ukraine. It is unable, however, to gain meaningful strategic advantage over the U.S. in such a race. It would entail costs for both sides, but they would be more severe for Russia, which is much weaker economically and further weakened by war and sanctions.

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Political and Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Romania

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

On 16 June, a Romania’s “state of alarm” was prolonged for a month by the Ludovic Orban minority government. The pandemic has prevented his National Liberal Party (PNL) from holding early parliamentary elections, which, given the popularity of the formation, would be expected to allow it majority rule. The largest opposition force, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), could build a coalition in the current parliament but refuses to take power during the crisis. The government has provided temporary support for Romanian companies and announced an economic reconstruction programme that may incorporate aspects of the European Commission’s Next Generation EU initiative. The consequences of the pandemic will hamper Romania’s adoption of the euro.

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U.S. Enacts Sanctions to Stop ICC Proceedings

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

An executive order issued by U.S. President Donald Trump on 11 June imposes sanctions on those engaged in the activities of the International Criminal Court (ICC) directed against members of U.S. or allied personnel. It is a blow to international criminal justice that will impede or may even prevent the ICC from investigating crimes in Afghanistan and Palestine. The sanctions can also potentially affect Polish citizens or entities, creating tension in Polish-American relations.

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Clean Gas: Prospects of Hydrogen Energy Development in the EU

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

Hydrogen is a non-polluting gas, which, by replacing natural gas, would contribute to decarbonising the EU’s industry. The development of the hydrogen sector is related not only with climate policy but also with the industrial strategy and it will require, for example, forging regulations and making investments both in hydrogen production capacities and a transmission network. The above issues will be a challenge for Poland’s industrial and foreign policy.

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Chorwacja na drodze do przyjęcia euro

Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

W lipcu br. Chorwacja przystąpiła do mechanizmu kursów walutowych (ERM II) poprzedzającego członkostwo w strefie euro. Rząd, tak jak opozycja i większość opinii publicznej, widzi we wspólnej walucie więcej korzyści niż zagrożeń i wskazuje na możliwość jej wprowadzenia w 2023 r. Jednak, mimo braku przeszkód politycznych, prawdopodobnie nastąpi to później ze względu na problemy gospodarcze Chorwacji, przede wszystkim nadmierny dług publiczny, które pogłębiają się wskutek recesji spowodowanej pandemią COVID-19.

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Ukraine’s Response to the Political Crisis in Belarus

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Alexander Lukashenka has so far been seen in Ukraine as a guarantor of Belarus’ independence from Russia. Therefore, the Ukrainian authorities initially avoided condemning the electoral fraud to avoid weakening the Belarusian president. That have since tightened their positions in response to Lukashenka’s accusation that Ukraine helped initiate the protests. However, Ukraine will not become actively involved in resolving the crisis in Belarus and will limit itself to reacting to Belarusian provocations and supporting EU policy towards that country.

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On the Training Areas of the Union State of Belarus and Russia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

In August and September, Russia and Belarus conducted intensive military exercises. In the case of Belarus, the organisation of some of them was dictated by the post-election crisis and the desire to demonstrate that its military is ready to respond to external threats. In the case of Russia, these were planned exercises, which functioned as another signal to neighbouring countries and NATO about the high capabilities of its armed forces. Most of the manoeuvres were based on scenarios aimed at Alliance countries.

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Parliamentary Elections in Myanmar: A Challenge for EU Policy

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The parliamentary elections in Myanmar on 8 November are likely to be won by the currently ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi. However, the party will probably receive fewer votes than it did in 2015. A weaker electoral mandate and further isolation from Western countries will strengthen the military’s role, weaken democratisation, and will be conducive to increasing China’s influence. To prevent this, the EU may consider resuming cooperation with the civilian authorities despite accusations that it is persecuting the Rohingya minority. Greater engagement by the EU in Myanmar and closer cooperation with partners in Asia may give the Union more influence over the situation in that country than continued isolation of Aung San Suu Kyi.

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The Main Challenges for China’s Internal Situation after the First Phase of the Pandemic

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China faces rising debt and unemployment problems worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic and U.S. restrictions. The economic difficulties spur dissatisfaction in society and the party apparatus. The solution to the problems includes increasing the share of the internal market in GDP growth. At the same time, the Chinese authorities are strengthening their rhetoric of rivalry with the West, which they blame for the difficulties. The central authorities also have tightened control over party officials. The anti-Western attitude along with the continual centralisation of power will make it impossible to compromise with the EU, for example, on increasing access to the Chinese market.

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The Role of the Economy in the U.S. Presidential Campaign

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the U.S. economy hard, including causing high unemployment. This weakens the incumbent president, Donald Trump, and increases challenger Joe Biden's chances of victory. For the EU, a Biden presidency may mean, for example, an easing of trade disputes with the U.S. and cooperation on climate protection. However, whichever wins, Biden or Donald Trump, the U.S. will pose a challenge to the EU and European companies, which may find it difficult to compete with the high level of support of U.S. companies.

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Intra-Afghan Negotiations: Peace at the Cost of Democracy?

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The peace talks between the Afghan authorities and the Taliban, launched on 12 September, are now the best chance to end the 20-year civil war in Afghanistan. It is possible, however, that the price of peace will be that the Taliban assumes a decisive role in the country, and that the present democratic system of government is dismantled. The Taliban’s position in the negotiations is strengthened by plans to end the foreign military presence in Afghanistan, internal conflicts in the democratic camp in Kabul, and the Taliban’s own growing military leverage. The support of states and organisations for the future government of Afghanistan will be crucial to preserving at least some of the achievements of the last 20 years.

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Devolution in the UK and the Combined Challenges of Pandemic and Brexit

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

Brexit and the pandemic pose the two most important challenges for UK domestic politics today. While Brexit policy has been controlled by central-government institutions, the response to the pandemic has been formulated by a number of mutually independent central, national, and regional institutions. Consequently, the national and regional elections in May 2021 have been increasingly concentrating on devolved health and education policies as well as on partly decentralised economic and fiscal ones. In the pandemic context, these policies have become the most important catalysts for separatism in Britain in the last 30 years. In Scotland, the election may open the way to its independence and the destabilisation of Britain as an important ally of Poland.

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French Authorities Playing a Risky Game with Security

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

The sense of insecurity among the French public amid the pandemic and terrorist threat improves the electoral chances of the right-wing opposition. As President Emmanuel Macron is seeking re-election in 2022, he has responded with laws aiming at defending the secularism of the state and boosting the role of law enforcement. Some of the proposed solutions, such as an interdiction on disseminating images of police officers, have provoked controversy. The government’s narrative may also have a negative impact on France’s foreign policy

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Estimating the Potential of China's Military Assistance to Russia

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

China’s military assistance to Russia would fill the majority of the latter’s needs and help it to regain the initiative in the war with Ukraine. Chinese support so far is based mainly on dual-use materials and items, but bilateral and multi-dimensional military cooperation between Russia and China will likely deepen. Ukraine’s partners might still influence and limit these areas of cooperation, which directly contribute to the continuation of war by Russia.

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№94: Much Ado About Very Little? Migration-Linked Development Assistance - the Cases of Poland and Norway

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel,Viljar Haavik,Morten Bøås / Language(s): English

In response to the migration management crisis that peaked in Europe in 2015-2016, the EU institutions and some European states promised to address the “root causes of migration”, with development assistance seen as an important tool in that respect. By comparing the development cooperation policies of Poland and Norway, this paper shows how the development-migration nexus has been implemented in practice by new and traditional donors alike. Despite important differences at the rhetorical level, neither state has substantially changed their development cooperation to link it directly to migration interests. This demonstrates the limited usefulness of the “root causes of migration” approach.

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№124: The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Political Stability of Russia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Agnieszka Legucka,Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Although the Russian army has suffered a series of defeats in Ukraine, the Putin regime does not feel defeated and its stability is not threatened. The ability to control the internal situation allows the Russian authorities to wage war with Ukraine for years to come in order to achieve the assumed strategic goals of subordinating Ukraine and enforcing a buffer zone on the territory of some NATO countries. This requires Western countries to take a long-term approach to deterring the Russian threat and supporting Ukraine’s ability to regain control over lost territory.

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№126: Tandem Faces an Uncertain Future: Franco-German Relations in a Time of War and Inflation

Author(s): Łukasz Jasiński,Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

The COVID-19 pandemic and the crises caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine represent the most serious test for the Franco-German tandem since the creation of the EU. Leaders in both countries share a conviction of the necessity of mutual cooperation, further increased by the compromise worked out around the EU’s post-pandemic recovery plan. However, the catalogue of divergences between France and Germany is long and includes crucial issues such as the shape of the common market, energy policy, and defence. A possible permanent loosening of the tandem may benefit Poland, but only on the condition that the country maintains constructive relations with France and Germany, cooperates well with EU institutions, and correctly diagnoses Polish interests in the areas of the Franco-German dispute.

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