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Znaczenie wygranej Donalda Trumpa dla kampanii prezydenckiej Marine Le Pen

Author(s): Łukasz Jurczyszyn / Language(s): Polish

Zwycięstwo Donalda Trumpa zwiększa szanse Marine Le Pen na sukces w wyborach prezydenckich we Francji, uwiarygadnia bowiem jej tezę o nadchodzącej wielkiej globalnej zmianie politycznej, za którą od lat się opowiadała. Wzmacnia także jej argumentację o znaczeniu roli tożsamości narodowej oraz konieczności odzyskania narodowej kontroli nad gospodarką i życiem społecznym. W trakcie kampanii wyborczej sztab wyborczy Frontu Narodowego nie będzie jednak eksponował podobieństw ideowych między Le Pen a Trumpem, ponieważ mogłoby to zmobilizować jej przeciwników oraz skierować przeciw niej antyamerykańskie resentymenty, wciąż silne w społeczeństwie.

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Surveillance in China during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Surveillance of society is one of the main tools of power in China. The COVID-19 pandemic gave the government an excuse to intensify oversight, including through the solutions previously used mainly against Uighurs in Xinjiang. The effectiveness of surveillance is important to the Chinese authorities because of possible unrest arising from economic problems connected with COVID-19. The importance of surveillance in managing the virus in China has also led to demand in democratic countries to introduce similar practices.

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Inwigilacja w ChRL w trakcie epidemii COVID-19

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): Polish

Inwigilacja społeczeństwa to jedno z głównych narzędzi władzy w ChRL. Epidemia COVID-19 dała rządzącym pretekst do nasilenia nadzoru, m.in. przez wykorzystanie na terytorium kraju rozwiązań używanych głównie wobec Ujgurów w Sinciangu. Efektywność inwigilacji jest dla chińskich władz istotna ze względu na możliwe niepokoje wywołane problemami gospodarczymi po epidemii. Znaczenie inwigilacji w walce z wirusem w ChRL spowodowało, że także w demokracjach pojawiają się postulaty wprowadzenia podobnych praktyk.

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Surveillance and Control: Russia during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author(s): Jakub Benedyczak / Language(s): English

COVID-19 has become an opportunity for the Russian authorities to increase repressive measures and test Chinese solutions for digital control of society. Most of the solutions will probably be maintained after the pandemic eases, especially given the deepening economic crisis and potential of protests.

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Przymus i kontrola - Rosja w trakcie epidemii COVID-19

Author(s): Jakub Benedyczak / Language(s): Polish

COVID-19 stał się dla władz Rosji okazją do zwiększania represyjności państwa i testowania chińskich rozwiązań cyfrowej kontroli społeczeństwa. Prawdopodobnie wiele z zastosowanych środków zostanie utrzymanych po zwalczeniu epidemii, zwłaszcza w obliczu nadchodzącego kryzysu gospodarczego możliwych wybuchów niezadowolenia społecznego.

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Zaštićena vrsta

Author(s): Ljubomir Živkov / Language(s): Serbian

Svi koji su dobili pismo od predsednika Republike, u kojem im je zahvalio što su mu, premda nevoljno, pomogli da izbavi Srbiju, proglašeni su sinoć zaštićenom vrstom i nepoželjni su bilo gde izvan svoje stambene jedinice, ili avlije, ako je imaju. Predsednica Vlade koja nema ni onaj brojač kakav imaju stjuardese ustanovila je ličnim očevidom da su naši najstariji građani prvog vanrednog dana preplavili prestonicu i prepunili gradske autobuse, nismo znali koliko sme da nas bude na ulici, ne zna niko ni koliko nas je bilo, ali smo očito daleko premašili gustinu koju je premijerka digitalno zamislila u svojoj glavi; naša drskost, zašto ne reći bezobrazluk i izazivanje, razgnevili su predsednicu Vlade koja ceo dan preti da će, ako nastavimo onako kako smo počeli, licima starijim od 65 godina biti zabranjeno da se ukažu na ulici.

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Vanredna predsedničko-premijerska ljubav prema nama

Author(s): Vesna Rakić Vodinelić / Language(s): Serbian

Znamo svi, proglašeno je vanredno stanje u Srbiji. Ne znamo još svi, saznaćemo vremenom, kakva je razlika između vanrednog stanja i vanredne situacije u Srbiji, koje obe normativno postoje, dakle negde u papirima. Uostalom, o tome su u Peščaniku već pisali Rodoljub Šabić i Sofija Mandić.

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Vrhovni jaše na čelu korone

Author(s): Ljubodrag Stojadinović / Language(s): Serbian

Posle mnogo godina neko je javno rekao da me voli. Nije mi rod ni pomoz’ bog, dobijam ospice kad ga vidim, mnoge sam godine proćerdao gledajući njegove besplodne i štetne ispade. Ali, sinoć mi je rekao da me mnogo voli. Odmah mi je odredio zabrane, kao rezultat svoje opsesivne ljubavi. Odmah posle državnog udara. Zabranio mi je da se krećem i srećem sebi slične kako bi me sačuvao.

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Solidarnost u doba korone

Author(s): Staša Babić / Language(s): Serbian

Nedelja je, rano popodne. Iščekujem da predsednik republike čija sam građanka obavi konsultacije sa, ovim redom: predsednikom Mađarske Viktorom Orbanom, patrijarhom Srpske pravoslavne crkve, pa onda i „sa lekarima i stručnjacima koji su u Štabu za suzbijanje korona virusa, a posle toga saopštiće svoju odluku“ da li da uvede vanredno stanje. Pretpostavljam da nisam jedina koju onespokojava ovaj redosled sagovornika koje je predsednik izabrao kako bi odlučio da li ima potrebe da izvodi vojsku na ulice. Umesto sa Orbanom, možda je bilo potrebnije da se, recimo, konsultuje sa domaćim pravnicima u vezi sa razlikom između vanrednog stanja i vanredne situacije.

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Vanredno stanje – uputstvo za upotrebu

Author(s): Sofija Mandić / Language(s): Serbian

Građanima Srbije je sinoć rečeno da je proglašeno vanredno stanje. To je učinio predsednik na konferenciji za novinare, rekavši da je odluku doneo zajedno sa predsednicom Skupštine i predsednicom Vlade. Obe su stajale pored njega, ali samo u svojstvu ubledelih statistkinja.

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The undeclared war. A new phase of the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki,Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English

More than two years after the end of the Second Karabakh War in November 2020, the situation in the conflict area remains highly unstable. Despite declarations of a de facto solution to the problem, intensive peace talks and Armenia signalling significant concessions on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, the region is once again becoming a flashpoint, as manifested by Azerbaijan’s blockade of it since December. In the process, the conflict has escalated to an open dispute between the two states. Azerbaijan has been provoking Armenia with military attacks along the line of the non-delimited state border (along which there was fierce fighting last September), and suggesting it might forcibly take over transportation routes (the so-called Zangezur corridor) on its neighbour’s territory.

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Germany’s first national security strategy: the minimal consensus

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska,Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

On 14 June 2023, the German government adopted the country’s first ever national security strategy entitled ‘Integrated Security for Germany’. The strategy is guided by an ambitious comprehensive approach which emphasises the need to boost Germany’s defence preparedness, resilience and to ensure the sustainable use of natural resources. This is also the first time when Russia has been clearly identified as a threat to Germany and its allies. The document highlights also the role of NATO and Germany’s commitment to collective defence. The ruling coalition has been aware of the need to define more precisely its course in the security policy.At the same time, the strategy reflects the minimal consensus between the coalition parties in many areas. However, this strategy can only serve as a starting point for further discussions due to the lack of priorities and defined tools, inadequate funding and unresolved problems with policy coordination.

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Prigozhin’s mutiny as a stress test for the Putin system: events, conclusions, outlook

Author(s): Team OSW / Language(s): English

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny came as a shock to the Russian elite. Moreover, the ease with which the Wagner troops seized Rostov-on-Don and started to head towards Moscow without encountering any major resistance provoked panic. Some representatives of the political and business elite, most likely including Vladimir Putin, left the capital in a hurry. The law enforcement bodies behaved passively, which likely resulted from a lack of clear orders and perhaps also from a reluctance to obey them, as well as from the lack of enough forces and equipment to suppress the mutiny effectively. Prigozhin received no signs of support from the federal and regional elites or the law enforcement bodies, all of which maintained their official, albeit passive, loyalty to the Kremlin. The public also remained passive. Although the events took state propaganda by surprise, state media outlets quickly started to report on the revolt, which proves that the Kremlin realised how sensitive this issue was. The propaganda message was that the law enforcement bodies, the elite and the public were opposed to Prigozhin’s initiative and actively supported the president. External actors monitored the developments in Russia with concern, fearing that the Russian state might have become ungovernable. None of Moscow’s formal allies offered it active support; they limited themselves to expressing verbal support, which was often belated. However, the rapid end of the crisis may also have influenced their stance.

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Education serves the regime. The ideologisation and militarisation of the Belarusian education system

Author(s): Piotr Żochowski,Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

As the Belarusian regime has intensified its policy of repression against society since August 2020,its other domestic policy priorities have come to include an overhaul of the education system and stricter supervision over Belarusian schools. Particularly strong pressure has been put on private institutions which the authorities view as hotspots of anti-state ferment. On the basis of laws enacted in 2022, a requirement was introduced for operators of educational facilities to obtain a special licence to run their schools, which resulted in a significant reduction in the number of private schools. A major overhaul of curricula has also been launched, particularly concerning topics such as history and literature. This is intended to eliminate or marginalize topics which emphasise Belarus’s European identity from school curricula. As a consequence, the content taught to students now resembles the content prevailing in the Russian narrative. Belarus’s politics of memory has been subject to similar attempts to align it with Russian standards.

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The Czech nuclear showdown enters the final straight

Author(s): Krzysztof Dębiec / Language(s): English

The repeatedly delayed expansion of the Czech Republic’s nuclear power plants has recently started to take concrete shape. The next two years should see the signature of a binding contract for the construction of the fifth unit at the Dukovany nuclear power plant (NPP), which is expected to cover around 10% of the country’s electricity demand. There are long-term plans to build another unit at this plant, as well as two additional units at the other Czech nuclear power plant at Temelín. The US-Canadian company Westinghouse, France’s Framatome (EDF Group) and South Korea’s KHNP are bidding for the Dukovany contract. This line-up of potential contractors results from a decision by the previous government to exclude Russian and Chinese bidders from the tender. The Czech Republic has also taken other steps to wean itself off its dependence on Russia in the nuclear power sector: it has decided to replace the Russian supplier of nuclear fuel for the NPP Temelín and regained control of the key Czech nuclear company Škoda JS from a Kremlin-linked company.

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An anti-colonial alliance with the Global South. The new ‘Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation’

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

On 31 March, President Vladimir Putin signed the new ‘Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation’. This is the fifth version of the document adopted by the Russian Federation, and the fourth under his rule (the previous ones were adopted in 1993, 2000, 2008, 2013 and 2016). The current edition is primarily of significance as propaganda. Its main purpose is to present Moscow’s conflict with the West as a defence against Western policies, which allegedly pose an existential threat to Russia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The document depicts Russia as the defender of the non-Western world against Western hegemony and neo-colonialism. The document also reflects a reorientation of Russia’s foreign policy towards its non-Western partners (primarily China, India, the ‘Islamic world’ and the Asia-Pacific region) at the expense of frozen or hostile relations with the transatlantic community, especially the United States.

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Netanyahu for the sixth time: the new Israeli government

Author(s): Marek Matusiak / Language(s): English

A new Israeli government was sworn in on 29 December 2022, as Benjamin Netanyahu took the helm as prime minister for the sixth time in his career, after a year and a half in opposition. Negotiations on forming a government coalition had been ongoing since early November, when parliamentary elections were held for the fifth time in four years. The new coalition holds 64 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, and consists of six parties: two are ultra-religious, three combine religious and national radicalism, while the largest of them, Likud, is a secular nationalist party. The make-up of the coalition, the views of individual members of the government and its first moves indicate that the new cabinet is Israel’s most religiously conservative and nationalist in its history. We should expect its policies to institute significant changes in many areas of public life. This applies primarily to domestic affairs, but also to some extent to Israel’s relations with the US and Russia, as well as the war in Ukraine.

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Erosion of the post-Soviet system in Central Asia

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota,Miłosz Szymański / Language(s): English

In 2022, post-Soviet Central Asia experienced a number of fundamental challenges that undermine and redefine the systemic foundations of order and stability that have been in place in the region over the past decades. Some of these challenges are typical for the region and have been particularly evident in the protests held in Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, but also in other cases. They are manifestations of a violent (in Kazakhstan) or evolutionary (in Uzbekistan) transition of these states’ political systems and, to no lesser degree, of a social transformation and increased popular aspirations, especially in the region’s two largest countries.

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Israel’s Mediterranean gas: the potential for gas export to Europe and the dynamic of regional cooperation

Author(s): Karolina Zielińska / Language(s): English

Once gas extraction from the Karish gas field starts, which is scheduled for September 2022,Israel will have a gas surplus enabling it to export around 10 bcm of this fuel to the European Union states every year. To this end, it intends to use the infrastructure connecting its gas fields with LNG terminals in Egypt, in line with the provisions of a Memorandum of Understanding which Egypt, Israel and the EU signed in June 2022. For the time being, no contracts with gas recipients in Europe have been signed, and no details regarding the price of gas sold to the EU have been provided. The continued development of Israel’s gas fields and the expansion of its infrastructure (pipelines and floating LNG platforms) will further increase the country’s export potential. The Israeli government intends to keep prioritising the country’s domestic demand. Despite its increasing commercial significance, the importance of the sale of gas to foreign partners is mainly of a political nature, as it helps to foster the development of relations in the region. Aside from Egypt, Israel’s major partners in the energy sphere include Cyprus, Greece and Jordan. The role of the United Arab Emirates in this context is also increasing. Hezbollah may pose a threat to gas export plans, as it has been pursuing Iran’s interests, which in the context of gas issues are convergent with those of Russia, and ties between these two countries are growing ever closer.

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Germany and the trade conflict between Lithuania & China

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

The Chinese government’s trade boycott of Lithuania risks causing economic losses for Germany and weakening the cohesion of the EU’s common market. However, Berlin is unlikely to take any decisive actions – such as pushing through retaliation – due to its huge dependence on the Chinese market, as well as differences of opinion within the government on what direction its Beijing policy should tale. Thus Germany will limit itself to diplomatic efforts, counting that the actions taken at the EU level by the European Commission and the French presidency of the EU Council will be effective.

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