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№266. Macroeconomic Imbalances in the Euro Area: Symptom or cause of the crisis?

Author(s): Daniel Gros / Language(s): English

Lax financial conditions can foster credit booms. The global credit boom of the last decade led to larg ecapital flows across the world, including large movements of resources from the Northern countries of the euro area towards the Southern part. Since the start of the crisis and more markedly after 2009, these flows have suddenly stopped, creating severe adjustment pressures. At this point, the common monetary policy can only try to mitigate the unavoidable adjustment by maintaining overall financial stability. The challenge is to strike a delicate balance between providing liquidity for solvent institutions while keeping the overall pressure on for a rapid correction of the imbalances.

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№279. Can Italy and Spain survive rates of 6-7%?

Author(s): Daniel Gros / Language(s): English

The sentiment that the euro is now in real danger is based in large part on the wide spread conviction that interest rates of 6-7% are simply unsustainable for both Italy and Spain. However, a closer look at the fundamentals suggests that both countries should be able to live with this level of interest rate for quite some time,but only if they mobilize domestic savings, which remain strong in both countries. For Spain, in addition, some debt/equity swaps are needed.

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HEADS OF STATE IN PARLIAMENTARY DEMOCRACIES: THE TEMPTATION TO ACCRUE PERSONAL POWER

Author(s): Vít Hloušek / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Throughout the last two decades many countries in Central and Eastern Europe have witnessed the ongoing development of democratic governance, with the ultimate result that these countries have now obtained the status of stable democracies. They no longer encounter the problems associated with post-communist transition, although they have new and unique challenges that they have to deal with arising from the present political situation.

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The early parliamentary elections of July 11, 2021: the Republic of Moldova between past and future

Author(s): Ion Tăbârţă / Language(s): English

The early parliamentary elections of July 11, 2021, will end a cycle in the evolution of the Moldovan political system (the period of the oligarchic regime) and will establish the beginning of a new stage – of democratization and modernization of the Republic of Moldova according to the European model. The categorical, first of its kind, victory of a pro-European right-wing party, opens new perspectives for the political evolution of the Republic of Moldova. The future evolution or involution of the Moldovan political system will be directly dependent on whether or not the new ruling party will have the capacity, intelligence, and ability to properly manage the chance and the vote of confidence given to it by the Moldovan citizens on July 11, 2021.

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Nuklearni paritet

Author(s): Alexander Golts / Language(s): Serbian

Najzad se dogodilo! Rusija je prvi put u svojoj postsovjetskoj istoriji dostigla nuklearni paritet sa Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama. SAD imaju 1.641 bojevu nuklearnu glavu, a mi imamo celih 1.642. Za samo šest meseci, otadžbinski nuklearni arsenal je uvećan za 131 bojevu glavu. Pri tome, resko je uvećan i broj naših balističkih raketa – sa 498 na 528. Čudno je da je vest koja bi izazvala oduševljenje među vlasnicima majica s natpisom „Topolj se ne boji sankcija“, do nas prispela s druge strane okeana. Kako to i zahteva uzajamni Dogovor o smanjenju strateškog naoružanja, podmulki Stejt department je (što inače redovno čini) obnarodovao ovu informaciju kojom raspolaže zahvaljujući regularnoj razmeni podataka o stanju nukleranih arsenala dveju zemalja.

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Putinove partije

Author(s): Végel László / Language(s): Serbian

Zaprepašćenost ne jenjava. Čak su i najveći licemeri, najveći pretvornici skandalizovani. Deo inteligencije iskreno negoduje zbog prodora ekstremne desnice u evropski parlament. Drugi deo se pakosno krevelji, i daje izjave o sumraku evropskog jedinstva. Partije se, pak, međusobno optužuju. Budemo li nastavili tim putem, Evropa će postati žrtva partijskih čarki i partijskih vojnika. Gotovo je s liberalnom demokratijom, budućnost pripada Kini, Indiji, Rusiji – čujem nove parole. Mada liberalna demokratija zaista krvari iz hiljadu rana, a slobodno tržište samo zagađuje te rane, sve to još nije razlog da stavimo na kocku ideju slobode. Posle onog što se desilo u Ukrajini, i trafikant na ćošku zna o čemu se radi. To je stvar gospode, kaže s gorčinom. Uprkos tome, evropska ekstremna desnica državnika budućnosti nepromenjeno vidi u Putinu. Mene, međutim, zabrinjava rečenica koju je izgovorio trafikant. Prosečnog, običnog, trezvenog građanina koji se bori s nedaćama svakodnevnog života, ne zanima naročito prodor ekstremne desnice. Prevladala je ravnodušnost, ideja demokratije gubi na snazi, evropska misao je sve više zamućena.

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Fatalne greške

Author(s): Uwe Klußmann / Language(s): Serbian

Kako srušiti protivnika? O tome je Vladimir Putin pisao još 2002. u svojoj knjizi Učiti džudo sa Vladimirom Putinom: „Čovek pada kada izgubi ravnotežu i ne uspe da je povrati.“ Tada sigurno nije imao na umu sadašnju ukrajinsku vladu. Međutim, sasvim je jasno da je ona izgubila ravnotežu. Čitavi regioni na istoku i jugu zemlje su otkazali poslušnost vladi u Kijevu, dok je veliki deo stanovništva na Krimu dočekao ruske vojnike kao zaštitnike.

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Vučićev pad bit će spektakularan

Author(s): Dragan Markovina / Language(s): Croatian

U to da će Vučićev pad biti spektakularan nije bilo nikakve sumnje još od prvih dana od kad je preuzeo vlast, ali kako se događaji ubrzavaju i poprimaju sve bizarnije i nasilnije oblike postaje jasno da će kraj njegove vladavine biti jedan od prijelomnih događaja u novijoj povijesti zemlje. Bez obzira na to što je u toj kategoriji konkurencija strašna. Njegovo razdoblje je najsličnije Miloševićevom, bez obzira na njihove nominalne ideološke razlike, koje su ionako bagatelizirane u tadašnjoj koaliciji socijalista i radikala, u kojoj je i sam Vučić bio faktor. Iza te nominalne razlike u sadržajnom smislu stajala je i stoji ista nacionalistička politika, koju u operativnom smislu odlikuju dvije karakteristike. Apsolutna sebičnost i izostanak bilo kakve osjetljivosti za druge s jedne strane te potpuna instrumentalizacija države s druge.

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Sukob desnih populista i eksperata

Author(s): Jan-Werner Müller / Language(s): Serbian

Opšte je poznato da su populisti protivnici „elita“ uopšte – a posebno eksperata. Desni populisti nisu u ratu sa svim elitama – oni napadaju pre svega stručnjake koji pravo na autoritet polažu na osnovu specijalističkih znanja. Njihova perverzna verzija desnog anti-autoritarizma implicira da nema ničega po sebi lošeg u tome što su neki ljudi veoma bogati; štaviše, takvi ljudi mogu biti najveći izvor mudrosti. Trumpova odluka da prednost da savetima „poslovnih lidera“ umesto savetima infektologa verovatno će proizvesti smrtonosne posledice. Ali ne smemo zaboraviti da osude i napade na stručnjake nisu izmislili populisti – pre njih isto su radili Reagan, Thatcher i drugi proponenti neoliberalizma.

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How are 1bis pension pillar funds performing? A cross-country analysis

Author(s): Michal Mešťan,Ján Šebo,Ivan Králik / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Private DC pension schemes implemented in CEE countries possess common features in the way how contributions are made, investment vehicles and investment management. As the investment risk and subsequent adequacy risk is effectively shifted onto savers, pension funds’ performance net of fees and inflation is of utmost importance for the sustainability of the pension schemes and ability to deliver expected results from the view of replacement ratios. Understanding the investment returns and the impact of fees under the comparative analysis is therefore our main objective. Object of our research are the particular investment vehicles (pension funds) in three countries: Slovakia, Estonia and Latvia. Subject of our research is the risk adjusted returns of analyzed pension funds provided under the 1bis pillar pension scheme in these countries. We use conventional Sharpe and Sortino ratio to assess the performance and confirm that even if there are no major differences in investment policies, the risk adjusted performance is vastly different even when comparing similar pension funds based on their portfolio structure. We also suggest that these differences in risk adjusted performance may result in vastly different pension pots and thus replacement ratios.

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Efficiency of humanitarian nonprofit organizations – a case of the Red Cross in the Europe and Central Asia

Author(s): Jindřich Špička,Klára KOBLÍŽKOVÁ / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The efficiency of nonprofit organizations has been a key issue since the donors are interested in efficient and effective utilization of donations. The aim of the article is to compare the efficiency of the Red Cross and Red Crescent national societies (RCNSs) as the world’s largest nonprofit humanitarian network. Moreover, the relationship between financial efficiency and super-efficiency score based was investigated. Super-efficiency score is defined as the number of clients to the number of paid staff and volunteers. The Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) in its super-efficiency modification was used as an indicator of efficiency of the RCNSs from 49 European and Central Asian countries in the average of 2013 - 2015. Nonparametric DEA method has been more frequently used than parametric methods in the nonprofit sector so far. Super-efficiency modification emerged as a good method for efficiency evaluation of humanitarian nonprofit organizations. The results show significant variance in the efficiency scores between countries. Our findings suggest distinct clusters of Red Cross national societies as they were identified by combination of financial efficiency and super-efficiency scores. Authors revealed negative relationship between financial efficiency and technical super-efficiency in all clusters.

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Healthcare benefits: luxury or necessity goods? EU countries case revisited

Author(s): Paulina Ucieklak-Jeż,Agnieszka Bem,Paweł Prędkiewicz,Rafal Siedlecki / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The aim of presented research is to analyse, whether healthcare services are luxury or necessity goods, taking into account several differences (income, healthcare’s financing system) between European countries. We have posed the following hypotheses: (H1): the character of healthcare services is affected by the level of national income; (H2): the character of healthcare services is affected by the model of healthcare financing. We have employed data coming from 28 European countries, covering the years 2004-2014. Data were obtained from Eurostat Database and OECD Health Data. Using the LS and WLS methods, we can conclude that: (1) in richer Europeans countries healthcare services are luxury goods; (2) in poorer European countries healthcare services are necessity goods; (3) in countries, where healthcare services are finance based on Beveridge system, healthcare benefits are necessity goods, while (4) in countries, where Bismarck system is employed – healthcare services are luxury goods. We have also found, that both in “poor countries” and “Beveridge countries” subgroup, the reduction of income inequalities, as well as the lowering of the ratio of people at risk of poverty, decrease the level of healthcare spending, while in the subgroup of “rich countries”, as well as in “Bismarck countries” this influence is entirely opposite.

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KOOPERACE KRAJNĚ PRAVICOVÝCH A POPULISTICKÝCH STRAN V REGIONÁLNÍCH VOLBÁCH

Author(s): Michal Pink,Josef Smolík / Language(s): Czech Publication Year: 0

The text analyses the extent and character of electoral support of extreme right-wing and populist parties in regional elections in the Czech Republic, as well as their collaboration in regional elections. The theoretical part of the text introduces parties labelled as extreme right and populist in the Czech Republic. The so-called extreme right-wing political party group will be discussed, followed by an overview of electoral results of these parties in each of the fourteen regions, with emphasis on the efficacy of gaining mandates. The basic statistical tools, correlation and variation analysis, are used to determine the relationship between electoral support of extreme right and populist parties. The text also explores regional differences in the absolute number of votes necessary to achieve the electoral threshold and party funding, which is closely connected to their electoral success since public funding of electoral parties in the Czech Republic depends both on the relative number of votes and on how many mandates their gain. The goal is to evaluate the ability of the parties to gain mandates with emphasis on the electoral potential of the whole group of extreme right and populist families.

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Prediction of Electricity Prices, Comparison of Germany and the Czech Republic

Author(s): Pavel Sedláček,Elena Láncošová / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The aim of this paper is to analyze time series that might have an impact on prices of energy commodities. Analysis and econometric modelling reveal which time series are corelated and how and the difference of Czech and German commodity exchange markets. This is input for further modelling of forecasting tool for electricity future prices prediction in near future. Selected time series are electricity and gas prices, contracted quantity per day, oil prices, coal prices, prices of emission allowances, weather (temperature and sunlight defining the consumption of energies), prices of electricity on day ahead market, currency exchange rate (EUR/CZK and EUR/USD) and correlation of particular week day. For the predicted value was chosen price of electricity on EEX for Germany and Czech Republic. The product is future “Cal+1” (product delivery is in next year) and time series were selected for period 1/2015-12/2018.

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EFFECTS OF PUBLIC PROCUREMENT CONTRACT ON FIRM PRODUCT AND SERVICE INNOVATION – CASE STUDY OF CZECHIA, SLOVAKIA AND NORWAY

Author(s): Solomon GYAMFI,Henry Junior Anderson,Viktor Prokop / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The public sector economy accounts for a large size of the National market demand for goods and services. Many scholars have tipped public procurement as an attractive measure to help boost innovation in firms for the state to achieve its innovation goals. But there has been a worrying case mainly by actors within the public sector and scholars to explore this policy instrument to support innovation. In light of the above, the research seeks to analyze the effect of public procurement contracts on the firm’s product and service innovation. Using logistic Regression model for the CIS 2014 data we analyze this effect in the case of the Czech Republic, Norway and Slovakia. Our empirical results showed that, the use of this policy instrument is dependent mostly on the type of innovation. We found that firms received contracts to execute projects from the public sector for service provision in all cases but in the case of product innovation, only Czech Republic firms did receive a public contract. Nevertheless, innovation was required when firms are contracted to provide services for the public sector only in the Czech Republic and Slovakia regarding product innovation.

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İki Lider İki Devlet: Haydar Aliyev ve Atatürk Karşılaştırması

Author(s): Farahila Fazil Babayeva-Şukurova / Language(s): Turkish Publication Year: 0

Tarihte, milletinin kaderini değiştirebilecek vizyoner liderlere nadir rastlanır. Azerbaycan Cumhuriyeti’nin kurucusu Ulu Öndər Haydar Aliyevde tarihte rastlanan bu liderlerdendir.Siyaseti derinden bilen vizyoner lider Haydar Aliyev kendi felsefesini her uygulama aşamasında parça-parça açıklamış oldu. Azerbaycan’ın Atatürk’ü olarak kurduğu bağımsız Azerbaycan devletinin ve ortaya koyduğu felsefenin tek teoricisi ve kuramcısı olmuştur. Atatürkçülüğün de, Aliyevçiliğin de en kısa anlamı “Çağdaşlaşma”, yani çağcıl olmak demektir. Yani, çağa yetişmeye çalışarak çağın üzerine çıkma mücadelesi vermek, uygarlığın üzerine çıkmaktır.

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Türkiye’de ve Dünyada Kripto Paraların Vergilendirilmesi ve Denetimi

Author(s): Ece Demiray Erol / Language(s): Turkish Publication Year: 0

Dijitalleşme sürecinde küresel ekonomide önemli gelişmeler, ekonomik alanda da ciddi değişmelere yol açmıştır. Dijital ekonomi sonucu reel sektörde yaşanan değişim, finansal sektörde kripto para olgusunu gündeme getirmiştir. Finansal dijitalleşme kapsamında merkeziyetsiz finansın işlerlik kazanması, kripto paranın kullanımının artması ile zamanla mevzuat karşısındaki yeri tartışılmaya başlanmıştır. Kripto parayla birlikte ekonomide oluşan bu yeni durum karşısında zaman zaman geleneksel yöntemler yetersiz kalmıştır. Buna bağlı olarak her geçen gün finansal piyasalar içindeki yeri ve önemi artmaktadır.

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LE SOCIALISME, QU’EST-CE QUE C'EST ?

Author(s): Vaclav Muller / Language(s): French Publication Year: 0

On a déjà beaucoup écrit sur les funestes conséquences du système d’administration et de direction qui était l'aboutissement logique d’un monopole politique tout-puissant. En bref, notre pays se trouvait au bord d'une profonde crise économique, politique et morale.

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THERMAL REHABILITATION OF BUILDINGS - AN ESSENTIAL COMPONENT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES. A PUBLIC POLICY VIEW IN THE UNITED STATES, THE EU, CHINA AND AUSTRALIA

Author(s): Cristina Oneţ,Ciprian Florea / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Starting from the premise already stated in the title according to which the energetic rehabilitation of buildings is an essential component of the policies regarding the fight against the climate change, this paper briefly presents several international variants of thermal rehabilitation policies and energy of buildings, with the lens of the most important countries, both from the point of view of the number of buildings that must be subjected to this process, as well as the diversity and efficiency of the policies adopted and the programs used in order to achieve this objective. This presentation of policies from some of the most important countries in the world is not intended to be exhaustive, but it provides a general and useful perspective on the most effective and used specific programs. The second part of the work includes a presentation of the most important legislative measures and national programs adopted by Romania in the effort to improve the energy performance of the built real estate fund, as well as a series of useful conclusions for both Romania and any other state in a similar situation. Any of the presented models, even if only briefly, we consider that they could represent sources of inspiration for identifying the most suitable and effective solutions for a country like Romania, which is at the beginning of the road on the path of adopting and implementing policies to combat a climate changes, in general and those regarding the thermal rehabilitation of buildings, in particular.

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LOCAL BUDGET AS A TOOL FOR RESILIENT CITIES – COMPARATIVE APPROACHES AND BEST PRACTICES ACROSS EU MEMBER STATES

Author(s): Florin Oprea,Lenuta Cojocariu / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The core problem of resilient cities is ensuring the capacity to preserve their main functions and keep provide public services throughout different shock or stress, while protecting and enhancing community members’ lives. Along the many factors related to cities’ resilience (e.g. territoriality, urbanization, infrastructure, social capital, educational attainment, the skills of the region’s workforce, place attachment, leadership, community cohesion and efficacy, community networks, and knowledge and learning etc.), fiscal variables should be considered as crucial ones, since both providing public services and fueling the (good) triggers of resilience, for medium and long term, need to be supported by public financing. Moreover, recent economic and pandemic crises demonstrated that local finance are in many cases very fragile, local public incomes being largely affected by their effects, and thus producing a negative impact on local expenditures and municipalities development. In this context, cities’ fiscal resilience gained an important position on governments’ public agenda, claiming better-oriented public policies, which could be supported by empirical evidence that scientific research could bring. On this direction, our paper intends to identify the main roots of the local budgets resilience and the specific connections with cities resilience, based on a sample of 23 EU Member States, synthetizing the best practices that could be adapted to other systems.

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