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EU Security Sector Reform Requires Revision to Achieve and Maintain Its Goals

Author(s): Beata Górka-Winter / Language(s): English

In recent years, the European Union has been increasingly active in promoting the idea of security sector reform. To date, the EU has launched a number of operations within the CSDP framework that have been devoted entirely to the implementation of it, mostly in African countries. Among the tasks of these missions has been to implement good governance rules, reconstruct the country’s security institutions (army, police, intelligence services and the like) and create mechanisms to prevent violence towards the most vulnerable groups. Despite the EU’s institutional and financial efforts, the achievements of these missions are rather modest and have little or no influence on the capabilities of these countries to protect their citizens from violence.

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Jak zreformować unijne misje sektora bezpieczeństwa w Afryce

Author(s): Beata Górka-Winter / Language(s): Polish

W ostatniej dekadzie Unia Europejska coraz aktywniej propagowała ideę reform sektora bezpieczeństwa. Do tej pory w ramach wspólnej polityki bezpieczeństwa i obrony prowadzono liczne operacje o tym mandacie, głównie w państwach afrykańskich, nastawione na: wdrażanie reguł dobrego rządzenia (good governance), odbudowę państwowych instytucji sektora bezpieczeństwa (wojska, policji, służb wywiadowczych itp.) oraz stworzenie mechanizmów ochrony grup społecznych najbardziej narażonych na przemoc. Pomimo instytucjonalnego i finansowego zaangażowania UE, efekty tych operacji są niezadowalające. Rzadko przyczyniają się one do lepszej ochrony obywateli objętych nimi państw.

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From Popasna to Bakhmut. The Wagner Group in the Russia-Ukraine War

Author(s): Jakub Ber / Language(s): English

The Russian mercenary organization known as the Wagner Group was not engaged in the fighting in Ukraine until April 2022, when it turned out that the regular army was unable to breakthrough their opponents’ defences in the Donbas. In May and June, the mercenaries became the ‘assault engine’ of the offensive: they played a key role in capturing Popasna and entering the outskirts of Bakhmut. In the summer, Vladimir Putin decided to turn the Wagner Group into a separate unit operating as part of the Russian troops in Ukraine. Yevgeny Prigozhin, a businessman and criminal who manages this structure on behalf of the Kremlin, was given a large dose of independence and permission to recruit prisoners en masse. Despite recruiting tens of thousands of criminals into the ranks and receiving comprehensive logistical and material support from the resources of the regular army, the Wagner Group has still failed to capture Bakhmut. However, they have managed to tie down significant enemy forces in this part of the Donbas, and thus prevented their engagement in the offensives near Kherson and in Kharkiv and Luhansk oblasts. The Wagner Group’s autumn offensives largely contributed to stabilizing the front in what was a critical period for the invaders. It seems that this formation’s combat value and importance as part of the troops engaged in Ukraine will gradually decrease, due to the huge losses suffered by Prigozhin’s mercenaries in the battles of Bakhmut and the exhaustion of the current recruitment model.

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Ending the War in Sudan will be Difficult

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Fighting in Sudan between the regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has been ongoing since 15 April. The clashes are mainly taking place in the capital, Khartoum, and in the Darfur region, causing the destruction of infrastructure, a humanitarian disaster, and the displacement of the population. Although neither side has achieved military superiority or the support of the population, they are determined to continue fighting until the opponent is eliminated, which makes efforts to achieve a permanent ceasefire difficult. In the longer-term, international support for a political solution to the crisis should aim to restore civilian control of the state.

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Rivalry Flares between the Russian Army and the Wagner Group

Author(s): Filip Bryjka,Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

The failures of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine have intensified disputes between Russian army leaders and the Yevgeny Prigozhin-led Wagner Group. Wagner has so far been useful in the fighting on difficult sections of the frontline in Ukraine, but it also has served the authorities by securing income and influence in Africa and the Middle East. Now, Vladimir Putin is diminishing Prigozhin’s achievements in Ukraine to prevent him from building an independent political position.

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EU Gauges Pathways to Accession to the Istanbul Convention

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English

On 10 May, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of the EU’s accession to the 2011 Council of Europe Convention on preventing and combating violence against women and domestic violence (Istanbul Convention). In addition to strengthening prevention and improving the situation of victims, the ratification of the Convention may contribute to reinvigorating discussions on the Union’s accession to other international agreements on the protection of human rights adopted by the Council of Europe and the UN.

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Political Freedoms and Human Rights at Risk in Transnistria

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

In July, Oleg Khorzhan was assassinated. He was a leader of the Transnistrian Communist Party, the only real opposition to the mafia-like structures centred on the Sheriff holding company that has completely captured the rebellious region. To preserve profits in an economy and regime it controls, Sheriff persecutes political opponents and residents who criticise the authoritarian system. Using economic tools, the EU can urge the regime in Tiraspol to respect fundamental freedoms and democratise the region, which would promote stability in this part of Europe.

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Sahel States Opt for Negotiations with Jihadists

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

The inability of local and international forces to defeat the jihadists in the Sahel region has led to grassroots initiatives to reach an understanding with them. In Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, preparations are also underway for similar talks by governments, with the hope of including some extremists in the political mainstream. This may help with stabilising the volatile situation, but it carries the risk of strengthening the influence of the radicals.

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ISIS Increasingly Eyes Sub-Saharan Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Sub-Saharan Africa is becoming a priority for ISIS, which seeks to strengthen its potential and propaganda in the region where the terrorist organisation has staged the most attacks in recent months. The increasing ties between Sub-Saharan militant groups and ISIS Central, in conjunction with the weakening military involvement of France in the region, will make it difficult to combat terrorism. It will also increase the threat to European entities in the region, but not Europe itself.

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What are the Prospects the U.S. Authorities will Designate Russia a State Sponsor of Terrorism?

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

In July, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi called on the U.S. Secretary of State to designate the Russian Federation as a state sponsor of terrorism. In response, Secretary Antony Blinken expressed scepticism as to whether such a step was needed, revealing differences between the administration and Congress on the issue. Including Russia on the list would have a number of legal and financial consequences, such as increased restrictions and opening a discussion on possible secondary sanctions against Russia.

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A creeping annexation. Russia’s plans to partition Ukraine

Author(s): Krzysztof Nieczypor,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English

Russia was forced to modify its plan after its military operation in Ukraine failed. The original intention was the rapid political subjugation of Ukraine. The new plan involves Russia consolidating its position in the territories that it has managed to seize thus far. As a result of major resistance on the part of Ukrainian society, the Kremlin has abandoned its planned implementation of a technique known from 2014 involving the creation of so-called people’s republics in the occupied Kherson Oblast and portions of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Since May 2022, Russian government officials have increasingly frequently spoken of annexing the occupied territories, making reference to the history of the Russian Empire and to the Taurida and Kherson governorates created in 1802. As concerns the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR), the plan to incorporate them into the Russian Federation should be viewed as a correction of the strategy pursued following the signing of the so-called Minsk agreements in 2015, which specified that the Donbas would be granted special status within the Ukrainian state. The self-proclaimed republics and the territories that have been seized since the beginning of the war, covering more than 80,000 square kilometres, are to become an integral part of Russia. This will enable Moscow to maintain a corridor leading to occupied Crimea, to present the “special military operation” as a Russian victory and to launch another stage of the process of “uniting Russian lands”.

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Belarus: Half a Year of Protests

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Since the rigged presidential elections in August 2020, the public protests against Alexander Lukashenka have continued. The Belarusian authorities have responded with repression, detaining protesters and independent journalists. Despite Lukashenka’s calls to reform the constitution, he also tries to postpone this process. The European Union should increase its support to civil society and keep demanding the Belarusian authorities respect human rights.

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The Impact of the Repression in Xinjiang on China’s Relations with Other Countries

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

The policy of repression of Uyghurs in Xinjiang has become a significant element of criticism of China in the world. In March this year, the EU, U.S., Canada, and the United Kingdom imposed sanctions on China over the matter. Moreover, the Netherlands, the U.S. and Canada described China’s actions as genocide. For China, however, its actions involving Uyghurs are a key element of domestic politics, which is why it presents accusations as disinformation. It has imposed counter sanctions, including on the EU, and their wide scope indicates that for China, Xinjiang is more important than, for example, the ratification of the Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI) with the EU.

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France-Rwanda Reconciliation Follows Genocide Report

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

In March, a commission of historians commissioned by President Emmanuel Macron to study France’s role before and during the Rwandan genocide in 1994 published the results of their research. Its conclusions were critical of France and well-received in Rwanda. That paved the way for the first visit to Rwanda in a decade by the French leader. The end of more than 25 years of mutual hostility will bring political benefits to both sides. The historians’ report contributes to the discussion about the future of humanitarian interventions.

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The Potential Threat of the Ties between the Taliban and Al-Qaida

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The collapse of Afghanistan’s government and security forces might increase the terrorist threat to the U.S. and Europe. During the period before 11 September 2001, the leaders of Al-Qaida and the Afghan fundamentalists cooperated closely. According to UN estimates, there are currently between a few hundred to a thousand members of Al-Qaida in Afghanistan. Despite weakening since the death of Osama bin Laden, Al-Qaida in future might use Afghanistan to regroup and as a safe haven.

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A New Jihadist Front in Mozambique

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

In August, ISIS-linked Muslim rebels in Mozambique seized the strategic port of Mocímboa da Praia, located near gas installations in the Cabo Delgado province. The extremist offensive may spoil development opportunities in a country that is one of Poland’s main trading partners in Africa.

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Military Coup in Sudan

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

The military takeover of Sudan led by Gen. Abdel Fatah al-Burhan on 25 October will lead to blocking the process of reforms and the democratic transformation, deepening the economic crisis, and a period of social unrest. If civilian power is not restored, Sudan is threatened with a deterioration in relations with Western partners, which will benefit the Gulf states and Russia.

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The Assassination of the Head of the Military Part of Iran’s Nuclear Programme

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

On 27 November, in an attack on the road to Tehran, Dr. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi was killed. He was identified by Western intelligence agencies as the head of a scientific team working on a nuclear warhead and weaponisation and engaged in some other secret projects of Iran’s Ministry of Defence and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The government of Iran accused Israel, specifically its Mossad intelligence agency, and threatened revenge. The killing of the nuclear scientist will complicate the U.S.-Iran negotiations on the renewal of the provisions of the 2015 nuclear agreement, which was likely the main goal of the attack presumably by Israel.

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Consequences of the Poisoning of Opposition Leader Alexei Navalny

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

German Chancellor Angela Merkel confirmed on 2 September that the Russian opposition activist Alexei Navalny had been poisoned with the nerve agent Novichok. EU and NATO politicians have announced the introduction of sanctions. The Navalny poisoning will have a negative impact on Western countries’ relations with Russia, although it will not result in, for example, blocking the construction of Nord Stream 2.

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Jihadi foreign fighters and the threat to Czechia

Author(s): Asya Metodieva,Emil Aslan / Language(s): English

The threat of jihadi terrorism in Europe remains a security concern at the end of 2020. Following the 2020 Vienna attack, governments across Central Europe responded with both political statements and security checks. Although Czechia has never been a primary target of a major jihadi attack, there is a need to understand the nature of the threat that is about cross-border radicalization and challenges related to European citizens who returned to the region after joining jihadi groups in Syria and Iraq. This policy paper assesses the external and internal threat of jihadi terrorism to Czechia. The analysis makes two recommendations to policy makers: first, invest in capacity building to track online activities related to preparation of terrorist violence, including propaganda dissemination, recruitment into radical groups, coordinated actions intended to cause casualties; second, enhance intelligence sharing with countries in the region concerning individuals who have returned from Syria and Iraq, were released after terrorism-related offences; were prevented from becoming foreign fighters but belonged to radical networks; have gone through rehabilitation programmes.

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