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A System Correction in a Time of Crises: German Federalism vs. the Pandemic

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

The diversity of regional strategies to counter the COVID-19 pandemic prompted the German federal government to take control of the fight against the coronavirus and the Bundestag temporarily increased the powers of the central authorities in the area of healthcare. The initial difficulties of the regional governments in the fight against the pandemic can be a catalyst for constitutional changes and increasing the role of the federal government in areas such as healthcare and internal security.

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The Impact of COVID-19 on India’s Economy and International Standing

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Despite the government’s restrictive preventive measures, India has emerged as one of the countries most affected by COVID-19, and it has yet to reach the peak of infections. The pandemic has ignited the most serious economic crisis in the country’s history, worsened India’s investment attractiveness, and constrained resources that would otherwise help it pursue a greater international role. The economic crisis also undermines the country’s international image, boosted by the quick and decisive response to the pandemic in its initial phase. At the same time, the economic problems and the continued fight against the pandemic will encourage the authorities to deepen cooperation with the EU in public health, the economy, and security.

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Ukrainian Labour Migration to the EU During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

According to estimates by the International Organization for Migration, more than 5 million of the 42 million citizens of Ukraine remain abroad, the vast majority of them for economic purposes. The most significant direction of Ukrainian labour migration is the European Union. The COVID-19 pandemic has not resulted in massive returns of migrants to Ukraine - only about 10% of those already abroad in February decided to take this step. However, the pandemic made it more difficult for Ukrainians to leave the country in the spring-summer period when the demand for work in EU countries is usually the highest.

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Bavarian PM Söder’s Prospects for the Christian Democrat’s Nomination as Chancellor

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Bavaria’s strategy to counter the COVID-19 pandemic has contributed to a rise in popularity of its prime minister and the head of the Christian Social Union (CSU), Marcus Söder. This strengthens his chances of winning the nomination for chancellor on behalf of the Christian Democrats in the upcoming Bundestag elections. Söder’s nomination would mean an increase in the influence of the CSU and could complicate relations with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the long run.

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The Russian Economy and COVID-19

Author(s): Jakub Benedyczak,Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Russia’s economy will be strongly affected by the COVID-19 crisis. The Russian authorities have not allocated sufficient funds for anti-crisis measures, especially given the context of a global recession, the collapse of oil prices, and a decrease in demand for natural resources. Although the decline in GDP will probably be greater than during the crisis of 1998, Russia’s high foreign-exchange reserves and low foreign debt means its economy will not need external financial support to stabilise the situation.

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USMCA: Less Free Trade, More Regulations

Author(s): Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): English

The Free Trade Agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada (USMCA) entered into force on 1 July and replaced the previous agreement. The new rules are intended to encourage multinationals to locate production in North America and, above all, in the United States. The COVID-19 pandemic will make implementation of the agreement more difficult in the short term, but will strengthen the benefits of relocating manufacturing plants to the region in the long term. The USMCA also raises issues of employee and environmental protection. This might be beneficial for the EU, which strives to raise these standards in free trade agreements.

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Consequences of COVID-19 in ASEAN States

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

The COVID-19 pandemic in the 10 member states of ASEAN has resulted in severe losses of life and economic problems, including higher unemployment. It also has revealed weakness in the bloc’s integration, including a lack of coordination. However, the crisis is an opportunity to tighten cooperation, for example, in the supply of medical equipment. It may also contribute to the intensification of relations with external partners, such as trade agreements with the EU, which can support ASEAN economies’ recovery from recession.

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Anything but Lockdown: Germany in the Face of the Second Wave of the Pandemic

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

A rapid increase in the number of infections has prompted federal and provincial authorities in Germany to introduce new restrictions. They are designed to prevent local rates from exceeding 50 infections per 100,000 residents. The effectiveness of these actions will be of key importance for the condition of the economy. It will also affect the final balance sheet of the grand coalition rule and the course of next year’s election campaign to the Bundestag.

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Final Days before the U.S. Presidential Election

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The U.S. presidential election is 3 November, but millions of Americans have already voted. The fear of COVID-19 and strong support of their chosen candidate from the early stage of the campaign prompted voters to participate in early voting. While Democratic challenger Joe Biden is indicated as the likely winner, it is possible that the polls do not reflect Donald Trump’s actual chances of re-election. At the same time, the president has signalled that he might not concede defeat because of what he has described as a fraudulent process of votes by post. The probability is high of political instability until the next president is sworn in January 2021.

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Second Wave of COVID-19 in Israel

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Israel was among the states that managed to mitigate the first wave of COVID-19. However, inconsistent actions in lifting the restrictions and a decline in social discipline have led to a sharp increase in morbidity. That forced Israel to be first country in the world to introduce a second lockdown, which is now being lifted. The political consequences of the second wave are a drop in support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and increased tensions within the coalition, both of which enhance the chances of another cabinet crisis, including an early elections scenario.

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France: New Lockdown Worsens Old Crises

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

A robust increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections forced the French authorities to introduce a new lockdown from 30 October. This attempt to limit the spread of the pandemic coincides with rising apprehension after recent terrorist attacks and a worsening economy. The government of Jean Castex is only a few months old but has to cope not only with the introduction of a recovery plan but also the need to reinforce the sense of security among the people of France.

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Donbas: Mired in Crises

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

The Russian aggression against Ukraine has caused mass migration of people from areas in the war zone. The people remaining in the territories of eastern Ukraine occupied by Russia - the so-called People’s Republics - require humanitarian aid. The COVID-19 pandemic has deepened the isolation of the occupied territories from the rest of Ukraine. Given the Russians and separatist authorities’ various stances, the situation in Donbas will deteriorate further.

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Civic Attitudes Towards European Integration in the COVID-19 Era

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

EU citizens are divided in their assessment of community institutions’ record in reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, no significant dip in trust in the Union has occurred. What is more, European cooperation is perceived as an important instrument in the fight against the pandemic and protection against similar crises in the future. Public support for establishing a new common policy in the realm of health could be used as an argument for reform of the treaties at the forthcoming Conference on the Future of Europe.

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China’s Preparations for the Second Wave of COVID-19

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

A very low increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections has been recorded for many months in China. However, local outbreaks occur regularly and the Chinese authorities expect the number to rise towards the end of the year. The authorities have begun limiting the entry of foreigners to China and are speeding up the completion of work on a vaccine. China is taking advantage of the relatively stable situation to increase its influence in Central Europe, Asia, and Latin America at the expense of the U.S. and the EU. As a result, the scope for Union cooperation with China to combat the pandemic remains limited.

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Joint Crisis-Response: Towards a European Health Union

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

The European Commission (EC) presented a package of legislative proposals initiating the creation of a European Health Union. The proposals seek to strengthen crisis management in the face of cross-border health threats, including institutional reforms in the area of health. They do not prejudice the competences of the Member States as defined in the Treaties but are an incentive for closer cooperation in the field of health at the EU level. In the long run, this may pave the way for a revision of the competences of the EU and states in health policy.

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№92: More Autonomous and Greener: A Strategy for EU Industry in the COVID-19 Era

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Faced with the pandemic-provoked economic crisis and spurred on by initiatives from several EU Member States and the European Parliament, the European Commission wants to strengthen and modernise European industry while making it more sustainable and greener. However, individual states remain divided about the optimal balance between self-sufficiency and economic openness, as well as the pace of the green transition. Moreover, the quest for industrial autonomy and the promotion of more sustainable and fairer world trade are likely to complicate the already tense relations with the Union’s major economic partners.

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№182: “The Decline of the U.S.”: The Chinese Discourse on Post-pandemic Relations with the United States

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

The official Chinese discourse on relations with the United States focuses on presenting the pandemic as a critical failure of the Americans in power efficiency and global leadership. China showcases its own achievements in dealing with COVID-19 to strengthen the impression that Chinese solutions for dealing with international challenges are better than the American. At the same time, to avoid a sudden deterioration in relations with the U.S., which would endanger the development of its potential, China repeats its dedication to reach a compromise with the United States. The damaging effect current American policy has on transatlantic relations and multilateral initiatives makes China count more on Trump’s re-election than a Biden victory.

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№198: Implementation and Challenges for the EU’s Vaccine Diplomacy

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup,Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

The EU has strongly supported the UN-led efforts to ensure equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines. However, problems in achieving this goal have already hurt the Union’s image. Activities by China and Russia, which convinced a large group of countries to buy or produce their vaccines, constitute another challenge for the EU. The Union should continue its efforts to increase its vaccine production capacity, encourage cooperation between its major allies, and relieve tensions surrounding the vaccine supply.

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№204: Prospects for the Development of the EU-ASEAN Strategic Partnership

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

On 1 December 2020, the foreign ministers of the Member States of the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) decided to upgrade the relations of both organisations to the level of a strategic partnership. Both sides indicate that they share, among others, a commitment to multilateralism, peaceful settlement of disputes based on international rules, climate protection, and free and fair trade. The partnership may contribute to the strengthening of multilateral cooperation weakened by the U.S.-China rivalry, a stronger position of both organisations in relation to China, and their economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic. One challenge for closer cooperation will be the respect of human rights in ASEAN states and economic integration of its members with the countries of Asia and the Pacific region.

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Hungary Takes Over the V4 Presidency

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

On 1 July, Hungary took over the annual presidency of the Visegrad Group (the V4 - Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia). It will focus on the economic recovery after the pandemic. At the same time, its management of the group’s activities will serve to promote the country’s views in the discussion on the future of Europe.

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