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The Need to Foresee Risk and Uncertainty within Organisations based on Change

Author(s): Ion Gheorghe / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2009

In real economy any activity is growing up under uncertain and unsafe circumstances, providing a serious reason for the managers to develop the necessary means, in order to find the adequate solutions for each case and to diminish the negative impact upon the organisation. The risk and uncertainty are approached within reference documentation both from theoretical and practical point of view. The theoretical approach has exceeded the practical one by a long shot, whereas the ways to use all the theoretical knowledge haven’t been found yet, because they are unpredictable and have unexpected effects in any domain.

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Eesti võõrliikide tähendusväli: kujunemine ja linnaruumi kontekst

Author(s): Tiit Remm,Riin Magnus / Language(s): Estonian Issue: 15/2018

Alien species are characteristic to the era of anthropocene, reflecting the ubiquity of human influence. The formation of the “alien species” concept and its meanings in different contexts have always been tied to the cultural imagination about relations between nature and culture, but also with the (unexpected) activities of other species in a novel environment. In the current study, we analyse the formation of the meaning of alien species in Estonia and the relevance of the ecological alien species paradigm in the context of modern urban greenery. The development of the discourse of alien species was analysed on the basis of the articles about alien species in the journal Eesti Loodus (from 1958 to 2017). To analyse the relevance of the alien species topic in modern greenery, we made expert interviews with people, who have been practically or theoretically involved with the topic of urban greenery. Although the first critical articles about alien species were published in the 1960s in Eesti Loodus, a more comprehensive discussion of problems related to alien species takes place in the second half of 2000s. In urban greenery, the polarity “local species–alien species” is not of major significance today and may become relevant on some specific occasions only (e.g., the trees for honorary citizens) or in some concrete parts of the city. The interviews also revealed a discrepancy between the official and the cognitive idea of alien species – several species, which are perceived as one’s own, have been introduced here a couple of centuries ago and are hence alien species by definition. The interviews also pointed out other distinctions between self and other, which were considered to be more important in the context of urban greenery than the opposition between local species and non-native species. When applying the ecological alien species paradigm, the historical background of the meaning of species in a particular culture should hence be considered, as well as various distinctions between self and other that are specific to particular environments (e.g., cities).

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New Methods for Demand Estimation and Correlation with Sales Plan

Author(s): Adrian D. Tanţău,Dan Istodor / Language(s): English Issue: S1/2009

One of the most important and often difficult tasks for a manager is estimating demand for its product. Many firms, both small and large, encounter problems in methodically estimating market demand for their products and services. The issue is crucial because realistic sales demand estimation is fundamental for the sales plan. The market variables that will affect demand for the enterprise’s product are grouped into those market variables the manager is likely to know with a high degree of certainty and those the manager is likely to know with less certainty, like consumer demand. In the paper we present the frame model for determining the empirical distribution for the probability of the uncertainty of the demand estimation.

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Deliberation vs. Market Interaction: Two Complementary Perspectives on Collective Decision-Making

Author(s): Florin Popa / Language(s): English Issue: S1/2009

This paper analyses critically some opinions put forward by Cass Sunstein in a 2007 article on how information is aggregated and collectively used in deliberating groups, as opposed to prediction markets. The author puts forward several arguments in support of prediction markets, with a view to extracting useful lessons in reforming or adjusting deliberative processes. Rather than providing arguments in support of one side or another, we attempt to indicate the intrinsically related nature of deliberation and „impersonal” market aggregation of information in group decision-making.

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Analysis of Forecasting Methods from the Point of View of Early Warning Concept in Project Management

Author(s): Florin Popescu / Language(s): English Issue: 15/2017

Early warning system (EWS) based on a reliable forecasting process has become a critical component of the management of large complex industrial projects in the globalized transnational environment. The purpose of this research is to critically analyze the forecasting methods from the point of view of early warning, choosing those useful for the construction of EWS. This research addresses complementary techniques, using Bayesian Networks, which addresses both uncertainties and causality in project planning and execution, with the goal of generating early warning signals for project managers. Even though Bayesian networks have been widely used in a range of decision-support applications, their application as early warning systems for project management is still new.

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Profitability Ratio as a Tool for Bankruptcy Prediction

Author(s): Daniel Brîndecsu-Olariu / Language(s): English Issue: 11/2016

The current study evaluates the potential of the profitability ratio in predicting corporate bankruptcy. The research is focused on Romanian companies, with the targeted event being represented by the manifestation of bankruptcy 2 years after the date of the financial statements of reference. All tests were conducted over 2 paired samples of 1176 Romanian companies. The methodology employed in evaluating the potential of the profitability ratio was based on the Area Under the ROC Curve (0.663) and the general accuracy ensured by the ratio (62.6% out-of-sample accuracy). The results confirm the practical utility of the profitability ratio in the prediction of bankruptcy and thus validate the need for further research focused on developing a methodology of analysis.

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The Dynamics of Good Governance in Promoting Energy Security: The Case of Bangladesh

Author(s): Sakib B. Amin,Irteza Ali Tauhid,Umme Marzana / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2017

In the modern era, energy and its sustainability have emerged as one of the most important economic issues worldwide. It is widely believed that no country has managed to embrace development without ensuring a sustainable energy supply that could be accessed by a large portion of the population. Thus, this concept of energy sufficiency is of greater importance for the underdeveloped countries those, historically, had not been able to match their local energy demand. Apart from the inefficiencies and resource constraints associated with the energy sector, lack of good governance within an economy is believed to be a critical issue in aggravating energy crisis in those countries. However, following strategic impotence, political unwillingness and inefficient governance of the energy sector, the underdeveloped countries have failed to mitigate the energy deficits which in turn have hampered the development prospects in those countries. This paper highlights the potential roles good governance can play to promote energy security considering the case of Bangladesh, a developing country that is leaving no stones unturned in becoming a middle-income country by 2021. Besides, the role of good governance in complementing fuel diversification as a tool for ensuring energy security has also been put forward. Thus, the government of Bangladesh should reinstate good governance within the economy creating a favourable environment for investment in the energy sector which would enhance competition and mitigate inefficiencies in energy generation, transmission, and distribution.

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Forecasting the level of financial security of the country (on the example of Ukraine)

Author(s): Józef Antoni Haber,Alina Bukhtiarova,Svitlana Chorna,Olesia Iastremska,Tetiana Bolgar / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2018

In the conditions of functioning of economic relations, which arise between subjects of the financial system of Ukraine, the question of creating safe conditions for their activity is increasingly being raised. Attention is paid to the investigation of the state of financial security of the country as a component of economic security, in terms of its key elements, which allows attention to the most important indicators and to develop measures to prevent existing threats. The purpose of the paper is to forecast the level of financial security of the country based on regression analysis of impacts factors. The object of the study is the financial system as a mechanism, which is aimed at the activities of financial security subjects of the country to ensure its proper level. As a result of the regression analysis, it was found that changing in the country’s banking security by 1% will decrease the overall financial security index by 0.04 points, while the non-banking market will grow by 0.07 and the monetary component will decrease by 0.51. Based on the calculation of the arithmetic mean of absolute deviations of independent variables, the estimated value of Ukraine’s financial security level is calculated, which is 40.09% in 2018. Proposals for improving the “Methodological Recommendations for Calculating the Level of Economic Security of Ukraine” will help to solve the problem of mathematical substantiation of the choice of indicators for assessing financial security, minimize risks, eliminate subjectivity and improve the efficiency and the quality of the country’s financial security assessment methodology. The article deals with the issues of the financial component of economic security as the main element of ensuring sustainable financial development of the country.

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Classical and Modern Methods Used in Electrical Energy Management System

Author(s): Petruta Mihai,Alexandra Ioanid,Paula Voicu / Language(s): English Issue: 05/2014

The forecast can be defined like approximately of the unknown events from the future; this thing is necessary because of the existence of some unknown events, but this events play an important role in taking some decisions. It is obvious that the uncertainty's elimination is not possible, so the forecast is a tool who tries to minimalize this uncertainties. The forecast's importance in the electrical energy management is very important. The forecast of the energy's request presumes the estimation of this request's characteristics: size, time evolution, the request's structure, and so on. The forecast of the electrical charge is a tool of a modern EMS.

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New Trends in Budgeting – A Literature Review

Author(s): Ildikó Réka Cardoş / Language(s): English Issue: 04/2014

Budgeting is universally used all over the world. Budgets are the most powerful tool for management control, they are the key drivers and evaluators of managerial performance. However, in recent years criticism towards traditional budgeting has been notably increased. Researchers consider that traditional budgeting is a relic of the past; it cannot keep up with the changes and requirements of today’s business world. As an answer, alternative budgeting concepts were developed, such as beyond budgeting, forecasting or activity-based budgeting. Our paper is a literature analysis. First, the background and evolution of budgeting is presented, emphasizing both the advantages and disadvantages of traditional budgeting. Second, we continue the discussion about alternative budgeting methods highlighting their pros and cons. Third, conducted surveys and studies are analyzed in order to establish whether traditional or alternative budgeting methods are better and have a positive impact on businesses; or which has more practical usefulness. The final part provides conclusions and discussions for future research.

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Концепцията за мобилността като услуга в контекста на политиката за устойчиво развитие на транспорта

Author(s): Christina Nikolova / Language(s): Bulgarian Issue: 5/2018

The main topic for research in the field of deployment of Mobility as a service (MaaS) concept is related to the sustainable transport development opportunities. With regards to this, a large number of projects have been launched on the European level and their impact on transport sustainability has been evaluated. MaaS is an instrument for coordination and concentration of all scientific research on the deployment of information and communication technologies in transport, consolidating the efforts of wide variety of experts working on the implementation of innovative transport services. The article clarifies the essence and the role of MaaS concept for the development of different modes of transport as well as for enhancing transport services effectiveness. It studies the main aspects and elements of this concept in order to achieve transport sustainability. The article presents a review of MaaS concept’s development up to now and it outlines the perspectives for the future. The main benefits and risks related to the deployment of MaaS are generalized in the conclusion.

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Оценка на социалноотговорните политики в минната индустрия през призмата на вътрешните заинтересовани страни

Author(s): Vesela Petrova / Language(s): Bulgarian Issue: 5/2018

The paper presents social and responsible practices and policies in two outstanding mining companies – "Asarel Medet" JSC and "Dundee Precious Metals Chelopech" JSC. It is focused on the internal stakeholders and their attitude to management, environmental protection, labor safety and staff training. The results of the empirical study show that the employees of the surveyed companies have an active attitude and understanding of the implemented company policies in the field of the indicated components of CSR, as well as revealing problems that the management of the respective company should solve in the future.

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Динамика на основни показатели за висшето образование в България и страните от Европейския съюз за периода 2003-2016 г.

Author(s): Ekaterina Tosheva / Language(s): Bulgarian Issue: 5/2018

The aim of this paper is to study the yearly dynamics of the main indicators for higher education in the EU and in the EU member states in the 2003-2016 period. In particular, this piece of research is focused on the differences in the level and dynamics of the following indicatrs: the share of students in tertiary education, the share of the population with higher education and share of government spending on higher education. A comparative analysis has been carried out along these indicators in terms of gender and knowledge area. By using cluster analysis, the EU member states are classified into uniform groups along the four selected indicators at the start and at the end of the studied period. The differences in the groups are analyzed. Even though Bulgaria has reached the EU average in terms of the share of students and other indicators, the country ranks among the worst performers in the EU with regard to government spending on higher education. The results of the cluster analysis confirm that, compared to the EU average, Bulgaria and Romania are still lagging behind in public expenditures on higher education as a share of GDP and as per capita GDP.

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Ретроспективе српске етнологије

Author(s): Mirjana Pavlović / Language(s): Serbian Issue: 1/2018

Тема прве свеске Гласника Етнографског института САНУ за 2018. годину нуди поглед уназад на личности, установе и теоријско-методолошке правце у српској етнологији (и антропологији). „Историјске ретроспективе етнологије и антропологије“ представљају групу научних радова који дају нове доприносе критичким интерпретацијама дисциплинарне прошлости у нас. Разматрања етноантрополошке историје су последњих година све бројнија у Србији и суседним земљама, и овај темат употпуњује овај успешан низ студија, настојећи да додатно осветли развој етнологије у 20. веку на овдашњем простору. Већина радова у овом темату настала је као резултат излагања на међународној научној конференцији „Ретроспективе и перспективе етнологије и антропологије“ (Сирогојно, 8. до 10. септембар 2017. године) којом је обележена седамдесета годишњица оснивања Етнографског института САНУ.

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Necesitatea și relevanța documentelor strategice în domeniul securității și apărării

Author(s): Mirel Tariuc / Language(s): Romanian Issue: 3-4/2017

In order to be able to analyze such a specialized field as strategic planning, in a context where people understand different things by reading the same words, it is desirable to describe some models underlying reasoning and to define concepts while disseminating the meaning that one gives in the text. The current turmoil within the international environment forces you to build scenarios about the near future and to meticulously clarify your analytical framework, so as not to fall into the trap of multiple annoying manipulations. So what are and what should be these strategic documents? Are they really necessary? Are they useful? Could these be even more relevant?

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Considerații cu privire la conținutul și evoluția conceptului de planificare a apărării și impactul introducerii sistemului planificare-programare-bugetare-evaluare

Author(s): Mirel Țariuc / Language(s): Romanian Issue: 3-4/2008

The author believes that the Romanian legal framework of national security could be the source of confusions and misinterpretations for defence and security concepts such as defence planning. Taking into account several layers considered, the planning is a process with different connotations. It could be a political process, a tool for ordering the activities in a logical way or a resource allocation process. The implementation of Planning, Programming, Budgeting and Evaluation Process has been a leap forward in defence management due to this layout of planning on several levels as well as its irreversibility. Experts working within defence system could amend the legislation incoherence of security framework. Despite some elements of incoherence at the top of the system, the defence planning process goes forward. It should be highlighted the necessity and opportunity of keeping these stages in the defence planning process.

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AN OBSERVATION STUDY OF 2030 VISION IN PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOLS IN SAUDI ARABIA

Author(s): Safar Bakheet Almudara / Language(s): English Issue: 01/2019

"Vision 2030 implemented by Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) aims to provide education that builds children’s fundamental characteristics and establishes empowering health and social care systems. Furthermore, the engagement of the best educational institutions is one of the main principles of success. By 2020, KSA aims to engage 80% of parents in the school activities and learning processes of their children along with educational institutions. In line with this, observations were conducted in schools in three cities from three provinces in KSA. In this observational study, changes related to Vision 2030 were examined in multiple periods of 32 schools according to the type of instructions provided to students. More than 70% of all schools focused on providing knowledge to students. Alternative active learning methods, particularly those that were proven to be highly effective teaching and learning processes, were relatively ignored. Furthermore, few teachers were found to have undergone higher education and training. Nevertheless, some teachers were found to systematically attempt to address students’ issues from either a social influence or career guidance perspective. These findings suggest that if the efficiency of institutions is improved in the future, administrators would have to essentially transform teaching approaches."

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ART OF LEADERSHIP AT CORPORATIONS

Author(s): Michael Dylan Castle / Language(s): English Issue: 42/2019

As we complete the second decade of the new Millennium, leadership turned out to be a challenging assignment. Thanks to globalization, the effect of the crises situations vary from country based to worldwide extensively. The basic motivation for such a situation might be the rigorous awareness of social and mass broadcasting. This intensifies the extent of difficulty that the leaders encounter. The crises are usually unexpected and enduring, long-term, and highly expensive. It is claimed that nothing tests a leader better than a crisis. Crises create such vulnerable environments that leaders may be forced into taking sudden and effective decisions with very little knowledge. This situation brings instinct rather than mind and emotions rather than logic into the forefront.

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CREATING 'SPACES FOR DIVERSITY' FROM 'SPACES OF MODERNITY': THE CASE OF THE JANE-FINCH NEIGHBOURHOOD, TORONTO (CANADA)

Author(s): Tuna Tasan-Kok / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2015

Modernist planning and urban development created a lot of residential space without consulting the people who would live in it. It was generally assumed that the professional planner was the best judge of the needs of the community and knew exactly how to meet these needs through physical design: open green space and high-rise, cheap-to-build apartment blocks with fresh air between them. With these and other principles in mind, modernist planning, produced many neighbourhoods and new towns in an attempt to create 'ideal communities and spaces'. Before long, most of these neighbourhoods and towns had lost their charm and had descended into rundown hubs of poverty, racial and ethnic exclusion, criminality and stigmatisation. Toronto is no stranger to this problem. Jane-Finch, a neighbourhood in the north-western corner of the city is one of the products of modernist planning. Jane-Finch, as a cheap neighbourhood, houses a large immigrant population and diverse groups, but thanks to its community-planning tradition, some social transformations are taking place there and turning a stigmatised rundown area into a community hub. This paper discusses the changing social and spatial dynamics in the Jane-Finch neighbourhood and underlines the need to find new planning approaches in order to deal effectively with an increasingly diverse and complex urban society.

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Recycling Food to Promote Social Inclusion. An Empirical Evidence

Author(s): Giulia MURA,Ida CASTIGLIONI,Nunzia Borrelli,Mirella FERRARI,Davide DIAMANTINI / Language(s): English Issue: 65/2019

The purpose of this article is to frame the current debate about food waste in developed countries and to understand what kind of inclusiveness can be promoted through social action on this topic. The research developed in two steps: first quantitative data were collected (846 questionnaires) and analyzed; then critical issues were identified and 50 interviews were conducted to better understand the experience of one project initiative connecting food gatherers and selected food wasted by merchants. Results show that donation of food otherwise wasted during local markets is a common practice, but its impact and value is underestimated by merchants. The initiative is interesting and its potential for inclusion and normalization of the gathering phenomenon is rather clear. The research shows how participants to this project, both volunteers and users realize an inclusive community adopting the same practice of food saving, despite having a different motivation. Such an initiative represents a practice of social innovation as it is not only targeted at poor people, nor it is trying to solve one specific problem: it rather tries to disseminate a different kind of consciousness around food and its waste.

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