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This paper aims therefore to define some major regional opportunities, vulnerabilities and dilemmas in the post-Vilnius context, and explore the complex perspectives of the new Eastern Europe, under its current name of the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood.
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The general European context is more complex than ever before. The „New Europe” project has its frameworks and limits even less drafted than in the previous epochs, and the internal and geostrategic political intentions are at their highest level of complexity. European leaders must sketch a project for the third millennium Europe in the term begun in the summer of 2014, a project that must primarily satisfy the European Union citizens, the main beneficiaries of the whole process generically known as the „European construction.”
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The EU Strategy for the Danube Region emphasizes the various problems and challenges of long-term development of the macro-region. Besides uneven socioeconomic development, insufficient investment in infrastructure, environmental problems and so on, it also empha¬sizes the climate change that represents one of the major threats to current and future quality of life and safe development of countries, regions, cities and towns of the macro-region. Natural disasters (floods, landslides, hails, droughts) that in the last decade hit many towns and cities of the member states of the macro-region require a greater degree of cooperation in the field of adaptation to climate change, both within individual countries as well as between them. In this paper we present the status and activities in the field of adaptation to climate change in the Danube macro-region of Europe, and in Slovenia at the state level and the level of cities and towns. In doing so, we give the main emphasis to the status and trends that are characteristic of the Gorenje statistical region, which is located in the area of gravitational influence of Ljubljana metropolitan region. In the paper, which summarizes the results of the international project C3-Alps, we present the vulnerability of settlements and transport infrastructure in the Gorenje region to climate change as well as the possible scenarios of adjustments of settlements and transport infrastructure to the influence of climate change. In the final part of the paper we present a vision, concept and strategy for adaptation to climate change in the Gorenje region.
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International migration has positive effect on Hungary’s demographic, social and economic processes. Although the proportion of the Hungarian-speaking migrant population declined between the two censuses, it still plays a decisive role. This is related with the cross-border linguistic and cultural ties. If we looked at the Hungarian country territory before World War I and II, we found, that half of the international migration was domestic migrants from the peripheral regions to the centre of country. So, this phenomenon determines the migration network form the Carpathian Basin to Hungary. In general, most of the migrants come from the Hungarian speaking regions. The proportion of non-Hungarian speaking migrants coming from Trans-Carpathian Ukraine, northern Slovakia, Serbia, outside parts of Vojvodina, as well as Austria, Croatia and Slovenia has been increasing. Analysis of the source area showed a colorful picture about foreign citizens living in Hungary. In general it can be stated that the lower-skilled migrants have greater proportion in migration to a smaller distance, while those with higher education dominate in migration for longer distances. The impact zone of potential migration increases with educational qualifications and skills.
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The article deals with development of unofficial right-wing extremist scene in Slovakia since 1989. This scene is represented by non-registered and loosely organized youth groups with activist (militant) strategies and extremist ideology. The article describes and analyzes the formation and activities of main groups considered as right-wing extremist, e.g. National resistance, Autonomous nationalism, Resistance Action Group or Slovak Recruits and tries to find the organizational, strategic or ideological patterns of their identity and activities. It seems that the most effective organization model in right-wing extremist scene is the cooperation of registered political party or civic movement with unofficial grassroots groups which are able to utilize their activism to get the needed electoral support for their associates with political ambitions.
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The article contains the fundamental problems of contemporary reality, which are taking place in Poland, a member of the European Union, in the social field. The term, social exclusion ‘’ has some definition in respect of the same social phenomena. the marginalization of individuals for a variety of reasons in social life. In addition, the article heavily stressed reasons for exclusion in Poland – in a democratic State. Existing solution in a very important area for individuals and entire social groups do not always passed the exam in our reality. Without much analysis you can concluded that this issue is not seen enough by the factors responsible for the current state of this negative phenomenon. That is politics and social security strategy does not go in an effort to meet the expectations of the subject, with is an individual – man.
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Turkish economy has almost experienced a continuous growth process since the first quarter of the year 2002, except for the year 2009 in which the impact of global financial crisis was felt. As a result of this growth period, Turkey has become the 17th largest economy in the world and has set big targets as to join one of the largest 10 economies in the world. In this study, we investigate whether Turkey would be able to meet its 2023 targets or not if the trends and dynamics that have been experienced during the last decade continue. Specifically, we will examine if Turkey’s exports will reach 500 billion US dollars, Turkey’s GDP will reach 2 trillion US dollars, and Turkey’s GDP per capita will reach 25 thousand US dollars. Furthermore, the path that Turkey’s macroeconomic indicators should follow in coming years and the different applicable scenarios in order to reach these 2023 economic targets will be studied. The results of this study show that those 2023 targets will not be met. So if Turkey is serious and insistent on these targets, this study may be a warning to policymakers to take the necessary measures when there is still enough time and opportunity.
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This paper presents a method for modeling and then forecasting in situation, when in time series for daily data contain systematic gaps. Base of construction were regular hierarchical time series models describing annual fluctuations. Weekly fluctuations were described as a grouping variable, which contains similar days and this type variables for other days. In models were used also dummy variables describing holidays and days pre- and post- holidays. Theoretical considerations were illustrated by empirical example for selected variant of gaps. Based on the same estimated equations, inter- and extrapolation predictions ware built. For both types of prediction – in general and in disaggregation to weekdays and months and holidays and days pre- and post holidays.
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On the basis of the mechanism of accidental sequences canonical expansions the algorithm of the economic state of agricultural enterprise forecasting is obtained which allows to estimate the results of its work in future under the realization of a certain reorganization (change of land resources, labour resources, fixed assets).
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The steel and iron industry production is dedicated to serve other industries mainly. This makes the exercise of demand forecasting different than for consumer goods. The common sense says that demand fluctuations are influenced by general economic soundness. An attempt was made to address the question of improving forecast’s accuracy by adding a business cycle indicator as an input variable. The SARIMAX model was applied. Including a business climate indicator improved model’s performance, however no co-integration is observed between the two series.
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Macroeconomic news announcements, particularly concerning the U.S. economy, have a significant impact on stock markets. Recent studies show that stock prices react significantly as soon as macroeconomic news is announced. However, the strength of the reaction and its duration depends on the market and on the news announced. In this paper, we study the applicability of discriminant analysis in the prediction of direction of changes of the main indices of stock exchanges in Warsaw and Vienna after release of the Employment Report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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The paper presents the DEA+ method as a tool for estimating the production function and the measure of technical efficiency in data points. A multi-product case is considered. Presentation of the underlying semiparametric frontier model is followed by demonstration of the very algorithm of DEA+ and a discussion of its validity. Finally, the method is illustrated with an empirical example with selected model distributions for each random variable constituting the composed error.
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The paper is devoted to the application of selected exponential smoothing models: Brown, Holt and Holt-Winters in prediction of variables with complex seasonality in the condition of lack of full information. Output forecasts will be built on the basis of time series cleansed from seasonality. Final forecasts, taking into account seasonal fluctuations, will be a sum of output forecasts and seasonal components or multiply of forecasts and the seasonal indicators. Theoretical considerations will be illustrated by an empirical example.
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Every day analysts and news agencies publish forecasts of important macroeconomic indicators. When the announced value of an indicator differs from its forecast, investors must revise their strategies. The strength of investors’ reaction depend on the difference between expectations and the true value of the indicator. In this paper we analyze the reaction of investors on the WSE to U.S. macroeconomic news announcements. We compare the strength of the reaction when forecasts are based on information from different financial services.
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In the paper the effects of logit model and discriminant function in the hazard assessment of the companies listed were compared. The effect of different indicators of financial analysis for the predictive ability of the models was studied. The aim was to find indicators which warn about the threat of bankruptcy in the best way.
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This study aims to indicate the main direction of development of the SMU GROM in the third decade of the 21st century. The starting position is to determine the factors that currently affect the development of special forces in Poland and in the world. The paper highlights the consequences of the changes taking place in the international security environment, technological progress, and social issues They are subsequently referred to the SMU GROM, taking into account its specificity among all Polish special forces. It has been concluded that the recruitment, the keeping up with technological progress and determining SMU GROM’s place in the national security system will determine its development in the coming years. This should be discernible in its priorities, including the emphasis placed on training to perform specific types of activities, a case in point being unconventional warfare. The study has been based on a variety of references, subject literature, and several years of in-depth analysis
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The paper is devoted to the general outline of the issue of rescue robotization, which has already gained the status of a separate research and engineering discipline in Anglo-Saxon countries. The role of rescue robotics will grow, especially in areas such as firefighting, disaster relief, or search operations, as well as in the transport of medical and rescue equipment in various difficult field conditions. In the future, the importance of robots used to evacuate victims from danger zones will increase further, especially in view of the fact that they can be used both on the ground, in the air, and above and under water.
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The research subject pertains to urgent matters concerning the evolving character of work, obstacles in regulations, and financial approaches adopted by organisations. The study is substantiated by its significance in the present-day business realm, its capacity to enlighten strategic decision-making, and its contribution to the ongoing discussions concerning the prospective nature of work. The research aims to thoroughly comprehend the monetary consequences of remote and hybrid work models. These aims encompass assessing financial metrics, examining the connection between work models and employee dynamics, and scrutinising the regulatory framework influencing financial decisions in the changing work environment. This qualitative study examines the financial implications of remote and hybrid work model trends. It focuses on the viewpoint of CEOs, CFOs, HR executives, and other critical management positions across various industries due to the growing remote work trend. The research conducted in-depth interviews with 20 management position holders to explore their experiences and decision-making processes. The study investigates how businesses integrate regulatory considerations into financial decision-making, address legal compliance, and adjust financial strategies to cater to remote work requirements. Furthermore, this research analyses the impact of tax implications on financial planning, necessitating closer collaboration between finance teams and tax experts. The research shows that adhering to regulations and labour laws directly impacts how much money is allocated for legal consultations and adjustments required for remote work. Tax implications are also important in financial decision-making, and organisations often seek expert advice to understand the financial impact. In addition, knowledge about government initiatives and incentives can help organisations make informed decisions about financial strategies, especially regarding technology investments and employee support programmes. The research presents significant qualitative viewpoints regarding the complex correlation among regulatory environments, financial decision-making, and the acceptance of remote and hybrid work patterns. The results provide applicable consequences for businesses dealing with the changing conditions of work models and add to the broader discussion on the future of work.
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