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WYKORZYSTANIE DANYCH OCZYSZCZONYCH O WYSOKIEJ CZĘSTOTLIWOŚCI W PROGNOZOWANIU ZMIENNYCH ZE ZŁOŻONĄ SEZONOWOŚCIĄ

Author(s): Maria Szmuksta-Zawadzka,Jan Zawadzki / Language(s): Polish Issue: 4/2015

In the article will be presented procedure to modeling and forecasting of the high frequency variable, based on series, from which was eliminated two or three types of seasonality. Forecasts will be built on the basis of exponential smoothing models. The theoretical considerations will be illustrated with empirical example about demand for electricity in hour periods in the agglomeration A.

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TRAFNOŚĆ PROGNOZ W STOSUNKU DO OCEN W TEŚCIE KONIUNKTURY PRZEMYSŁOWEJ GUS

Author(s): Wojciech Zatoń / Language(s): Polish Issue: 4/2015

The study is the evaluation of the predictive accuracy of the CSO industrial business cycle test. Detailed research concerns the accuracy of the forecasts formulated in relation to the production, stock of orders and financial situation. The forecasts of these features formulated by the entrepreneurs are compared to their subsequent evaluations of current states. The results indicate that entrepreneurs responding to the question about forecast of production and stock of orders in the next three months focus mainly on the next two months. The forecasts are generally overestimated. Their average accuracy is moderate but shows a marked improvement in recent years.

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MODELE PROGNOZ EKONOMETRYCZNYCH

Author(s): Krzysztof Zmarzłowski,Marek Karwański / Language(s): Polish Issue: 4/2015

The main task of the analyst is to select the optimal model. For models applied to individual companies, we have a series of measures allowing to compare them from as well as the accuracy and economic point of view. The situation becomes more sophisticated when the forecasts apply to a group of companies or economic sectors. The authors attempt to build a universal graphical tools based on the REC curve. Results of this method will be used to forecast models of selected sectors Polish companies listed on the stock exchange.

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ANALIZA ZGODNOŚCI WNIOSKÓW WYNIKAJĄCYCH Z ZASTOSOWANIA WYBRANYCH FUNKCJI DYSKRYMINACYJNYCH

Author(s): Sławomir Lisek / Language(s): Polish Issue: 1/2016

Prediction of the firm’s collapse is one of the important problems in management process. Important forecasting methods are discrimination’s functions. They should lead to fix similar firms’ ranking or at least to draw similar conclusions in collapse danger subject. Perfrmed investigations informs that Altman model, Hołda model and HCP model lead to draw similar conclusions. To more different conclusions lead Koh and Killough model and Gajdka and Stos model. Most different is Beerman model. Rankings are not similar.

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ZASTOSOWANIE MODELI TRENDU DO PROJEKCJI OPŁACALNOŚCI PRODUKCJI MLEKA W PERSPEKTYWIE ŚREDNIOTERMINOWEJ

Author(s): Aldona Skarżyńska,Konrad Jabłoński / Language(s): Polish Issue: 1/2016

The aim of the study is to determine the change in the profitability of milk production in Poland until 2020 year in regional breakdown. To prepare the projections classical models of development trend have been used. Due to the volatility of milk prices over time (+/-8.7%) different variants of the projection were developed. The results show that in 2020 compared to 2015 the growth of revenues will be stronger than the growth of costs and as a result the profitability of milk production will be higher (from 11.2 to 17.2 percentage points). However, estimation also shows that profitability of milk production in 2020 will be lower than in 2014 (from 1.6 to 6.8 pp). Only in the favorable projection variant (increase of milk price by 8.7%), profitability will be higher than in 2014.

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PROGNOZOWANIE NA PODSTAWIE SZEREGÓW CZASOWYCH O WYSOKIEJ CZĘSTOTLIWOŚCI OCZYSZCZONYCH Z SEZONOWOŚCI DLA LUK NIESYSTEMATYCZNYCH

Author(s): Maria Szmuksta-Zawadzka,Jan Zawadzki / Language(s): Polish Issue: 1/2016

In the paper will be presented the results of the application of selected models of exponential smoothing in forecasting of very high frequency variable, observed hourly, with unsystematic gaps, from which two or three types of seasonality fluctuation were eliminated. In the research was used a combination, in which gaps were present in each type of the fluctuation component.

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ALANYA VE MANAVGAT'IN İKLIM SINIFLANDIRMASINDAKI YERI

Author(s): Serkan Sabanci / Language(s): Turkish Issue: 32/2016

Climate has several effects on both human and nature. The main aim of this research is to determine the position of Alanya and Manavgat in climate classification and to reveal the monthly and yearly variation in climate. For this purpose, using the formulations of Köppen, De Martonne, Thornthwaite and Erinç, climate types of these two stations were determined. According to the Köppen’s climate classification, Alanya and Manavgat are included in the mild temperate zone (C). This temperate zone, defined by Csa, correspond to climate type which is mild in winter, hot and dry in summer (Mediterrranean Climate). According to De Martonne, Alanya and Manavgat are dry in summer, humid in winter, and between semi-humid and semi-arid in spring and fall. In consideration of Thornthwaite climate classification, Alanya and Manavgat have a first-order humid, fourth-order mesothermal climate close to marine conditions with lacking water in summer at a high rate. According to the precipitation effectiveness categories by Erinç, Alanya and Manavgat are between humid climate and their vegetation is humid forest.

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WYBRANE ASPEKTY PROGNOZOWANIA Z WYKORZYSTANIEM KLASYCZNYCH MODELI TRENDU

Author(s): Jan Purczyński / Language(s): Polish Issue: 36/2/2014

In this paper selected aspects of forecasting with the application of classical trend models are examined. Furthermore the possibility of making a wrong forecast for polynomial and power trends is pointed out. In the case of the polynomial trend, the risk results from the fact that the forecast exhibiting a very small value of ex ante may be burdened with a very large value of ex post. As far as the power trend is considered, there is the risk that the theoretical distribution will not fit empirical data, which is caused by estimating the value of the index (power) (equation (6)) b < 1 instead of the correct value b > 1.

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BADANIE EFEKTYWNOŚCI PROGNOZ ZMIENNYCH OPISUJĄCYCH WYBRANE ASPEKTY FUNKCJONOWANIA PORTU SZCZECIN-ŚWINOUJŚCIE

Author(s): Mariusz Doszyń,Bartłomiej Pachis / Language(s): Polish Issue: 36/2/2014

In the article an attempt to compute forecasts of variables that characterize selected activities of Szczecin-Świnoujście Harbour in a systematic way was made. Analysed time series include data from January 2006 to December 2012. Predictive properties of three kind of models were considered: trend models with dummy variables as a seasonal variables, trend models with Fourier analysis and adaptive Holt-Winters models. At the first stage, model comparison was made on the basis of adjusted determination ratio as well as AIC, BIC and HQC information criteria. Then efficiency of forecast was investigated with using ex post forecasts errors. In most cases trend models with seasonal dummy variables and with Fourier analysis turned out to be the most effective.

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WYKORZYSTANIE KLASYCZNYCH MODELI SZEREGU CZASOWEGO Z WAHANIAMI SEZONOWYMI W PROGNOZOWANIU WYBRANYCH ZMIENNYCH CHARAKTERYZUJĄCYCH DZIAŁALNOŚĆ PORTU MORSKIEGO

Author(s): Wojciech Kuźmiński,Jarosław Siergiej / Language(s): Polish Issue: 36/2/2014

The article presents the results of forecasting for the variables characterizing the port activity (transshipments) from a seasonal perspective. The Act on Sea Ports and Marinas imposes an obligation on the entities managing sea ports of the basic significance for the marine economy to forecast, programme and plan port development. As regards the volume of transshipments in ports, the so called naive methods are used most frequently. The article attempts at using the econometric models of time series with seasonal fluctuations to forecast port phenomena. The obtained forecast results (assessed with the ex post forecast accuracy measure) must be considered satisfactory.

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WPŁYW LOKALIZACJI PUNKTÓW ROZDZIAŁU NA EFEKTYWNOŚĆ PLANOWANIA POPYTU RYNKOWEGO W ŁAŃCUCHACH DOSTAW

Author(s): Natalia Szozda,Artur Świerczek / Language(s): Polish Issue: 36/2/2014

The paper seeks to investigate the effect of the location of material and information decoupling points on the efficiency of demand planning process in supply chains. In order to achieve this goal, the relationships between the location of two types of decoupling points are identified and necessary characteristics and efficiency metrics of demand planning process are recognized. The theoretical considerations are then evidenced by cross-sector findings obtained from an exploratory study carried out in supply chains.

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ŚREDNIA RYNKOWA STOPA ZWROTU INDEKSU WIG JAKO NARZĘDZIE W MODELU CAPM DO PREDYKCJI ZMIAN CEN AKCJI NOTOWANYCH NA RYNKU REGULOWANYM W LATACH 2009–2013

Author(s): Marcin Jan Flotyński / Language(s): Polish Issue: 40/1/2015

In the article the CAPM model has been presented as well as the issue of utilizing the appropriate market rate of return. The empirical study based on the data from the Warsaw Stock Exchange has been conducted. The time scope embraces years 2009–2013 after the global financial crisis. Calculations have been carried out of 60 the biggest and most liquid public shares. Their rates of return were utilized to verify the usefulness of long-term average rate of return of market portfolio as a parameter of one-factor CAPM for forecasting rates of return of stocks.

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KWESTIE ZRÓWNOWAŻONEGO ROZWOJU W STRATEGIACH PRZEDSIĘBIORSTW

Author(s): Paweł Cegliński / Language(s): Polish Issue: 40/2/2015

The paper constitutes an attempt to describe concisely issues concerning including sustainability in a business strategy. The study is focused on motives for this aspect and indicates its effects. The research is supported by the analysis of a domestic and foreign literature. There are also some empirical examples involved.

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ANALIZA PORÓWNAWCZA WSKAŹNIKÓW ŁADU PRZESTRZENNEGO NA POZIOMIE GMINY

Author(s): Anna Zbierska,Adam Zydroń,Piotr Szczepański / Language(s): Polish Issue: 40/2/2015

The spatial order is one of the basic requirements for planners set in the Law on Spatial Planning and Development. In practice, however, there is no adequate indicatory evaluation of this issue at the local level. In an article assesses the possible applications of various indicators, including proposed by Borys (2005), EUROSTAT, Local Government Analysis System (SAS) or IGiPZ PAN. Also proposed its own list of indicators.

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Knowledge of Secondary School Students in Belgrade as an Element of Flood Preparedness

Author(s): Vladimir Cvetković,Milan Lipovac,Boban Milojković / Language(s): English Issue: 4/2016

The consequences of the floods that inundated the territory of Serbia in 2014 indicated a high level of citizen unpreparedness to respond to the situation. Starting from this fact, the basic idea of this research is to examine the level and correlation of certain factors with the students' knowledge about floods as natural disasters. The aim of the research is a scientific explanation of the correlation between students' knowledge about floods and these factors. The research consisted of a survey conducted on a sample of 3,498 respondents who make up 8.96% of the students population. The respondents were students from 19 secondary schools, out of a total of 54 at the territory of 11 affected municipalities of the city of Belgrade. The research results suggest that flood related knowledge is influenced by the students’ gender, education and employment status of parents, education acquired in school and in the family, while the knowledge of safety procedures for responding to floods is influenced by fear, gender and the educational level of parents. These results can be used in creating educational programme strategies to enhancing preparedness for response.

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WPŁYW DECYZJI PLANISTYCZNYCH NA DECYZJE UCZESTNIKÓW RYNKU NIERUCHOMOŚCI NA PRZYKŁADZIE STARGARDZKIEGO RYNKU NIERUCHOMOŚCI

Author(s): Ewa Putek-Szeląg,Iwona Foryś / Language(s): Polish Issue: 42/1/2015

The article analyses the influence of planning decisions on transforming local real estate markets. Three stages of the planning process are studied, especially referring to: the enactment of the planning studies of the directions of land use and the resolution act concerning the formation of the local spatial planning, the resolution accepting local planning, and the effects of these operations for the land value of the selected real estate market in Stargard Szczeciński in West-Pomeranian Voivodship. The object of this research is identification of the indicated relationships on a given real estate market based on respective spatial planning stages and determination of the strength and course of the analysed relationships. The research verifies hypothesis that the strength and the effects of planning decisions are direct and indirect reasons for price changes on the real estate market. This analysis uses the Price and Value Register of Poviat Council data along with statistical and public information data and the authors’ own data.

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MIEJSCOWE PLANY ZAGOSPODAROWANIA PRZESTRZENNEGO JAKO ELEMENT MONITORINGU ROZWOJU LOKALNEGO

Author(s): Karol Mrozik / Language(s): Polish Issue: 42/2/2015

Land development planning is one of the basic tools for the implementation of local development by the local governments. In turn the monitoring is essential for effective and efficient impact of local government on local development. The study analyzed the coverage of local spatial development plans in rural communes of Poznan district. A detailed qualitative analysis of binding local plans (taking into account indicators used in local plans) was carried out for the local plans for the single-family housing areas (total 26) within the geodesic precinct Skorzewo, Dopiewo commune, Poznan district.

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SUBURBANIZACJA W WYBRANYCH GMINACH WIEJSKICH BYDGOSKO-TORUŃSKIEGO OBSZARU METROPOLITALNEGO

Author(s): Karol Mrozik,Piotr Idczak / Language(s): Polish Issue: 42/2/2015

The study identified the most dynamically developing rural communes in Bydgoszcz-Toruń Metropolitan Area. The analysis covered 10 communes located in the vicinity of Bydgoszcz and Toruń cities using the following parameters: dynamics of population change in 2004-2013, net migration per 1000 people in 2004–2013, increase in the number of economic entities in 2004-2013 and new residential buildings in 2004–2013. On the basis of conducted analyses communes Białe Błota and Osielsko were recognized as the most dynamically developing commune in Poznań district. In addition, the paper attempted to assess spatial planning in the context of suburbanization. The analyses were used CSO data and source materials from the offices of municipalities and counties.

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KODY PRZESTRZENNE W KONTEKŚCIE ZRÓWNOWAŻONEGO ROZWOJU WYBRANYCH GMIN WIELKOPOLSKI

Author(s): Paweł Szumigała / Language(s): Polish Issue: 42/2/2015

This article attempts to develop and historical classification of spatial codes for selected municipalities of Greater examples that were used in the research communities in the development of historical and cultural aspects and planning and landscape. The analysis of historical and spatial covered the period from the end of the nineteenth century and the statistical analysis of the years 2000–2014. The overall assessment methods were used for comparison. The results indicate the diversity of development and the risks and cultural aspects of space and landscape associated with the dynamics of spatial planning in municipalities.

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MONITOROWANIE TRAFNOŚCI SYSTEMU PROGNOZ SPRZEDAŻY W PRZEDSIĘBIORSTWIE

Author(s): Mariusz Doszyń / Language(s): Polish Issue: 45/2/2016

The article describes the sales forecasting system in the company, which is used to determine the weekly forecasts for about twelve thousand products. The structure of the system as well as forecasting methods were presented. Also an ex-post forecast error, which can also be used in case of zero-inflated time series was proposed. The way of monitoring the accuracy of predictions based on the distribution of the proposed ex-post error also discussed.

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