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Increase in Tensions in Serbia - Kosovo Relations Quickly Averted

Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

The attempt by the government in Pristina to amend the documents and vehicle registration plates of northern Kosovo Serbs and their opposition to these intentions led on 31 July to increased tensions. They were eased the next day thanks to quick EU and U.S. action. The incident was smaller in scale than similar tensions last year. Such events may be repeated in the future until these issues are normalised, but the prospect of resolving the dispute remains uncertain.

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U.S. Speaker of the House Visits Taiwan

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

On 2-3 August, U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi paid a visit to Taiwan, the first visit of a sitting leader of Congress in 25 years. China considered the visit a violation of its sovereignty and responded by imposing economic sanctions on Taiwan and launching live-fire drills around the island. Tensions in the Taiwan Strait can be expected to continue or escalate at least until the start of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) this autumn.

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The Military Situation in Ukraine after Five Weeks of Fighting

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

On 30 March, Russia intensified its military activities in eastern Ukraine. Contrary to its announcements, Russia has not yet withdrawn significant numbers of forces from the vicinity of Kyiv and instead is regrouping in the north of Ukraine. The greater intensity of the fighting in eastern Ukraine indicates that Russia is determined to occupy the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts for the long term.

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Effectiveness of Ukraine’s Air Defence

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

So far Russia has been unable to gain full control and dominance of Ukraine’s airspace despite its quantitative edge in airplanes and air defence systems. Ukraine has not only preserved the majority of its medium-range airdefence systems but also uses very effective short-range and low-altitude defences. These systems complicate and neutralise close-air support for Russia’s land forces; however, the West must do more to strengthen Ukraine’s air defences. NATO can draw a few preliminary lessons from the Russian use of air power against Ukraine.

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The Bucha Massacre - Russian Crimes in the Kyiv Region

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

From the first days of Russia’s latest aggression against Ukraine, it has been using terror against the civilian population as a strategy of pressure on the Ukrainian society and government. The crimes revealed at the beginning of April in towns near Kyiv, including in Bucha, are confirmation of this Russian policy. Once the evidence is gathered, the aim of the international community should be to bring those responsible to justice.

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The Military Situation in Ukraine after Nine Weeks of Fighting

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Despite the formal launch of the second stage of the offensive against Ukraine on 19 April, Russia has failed so far to break through the Ukrainian defences in the east of the country. Intense fighting is taking place there but no significant change in the military situation should be expected in the near future. At the same time, it is increasingly important to supply Ukraine not only with defensive weapons but also other weapon systems such as tanks, artillery, and infantry fighting vehicles to allow it to maintain a defensive position and mount possible counterattacks. At a conference in Rammstein, Germany, on 26 April, Western countries agreed to increase and coordinate such support.

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The Military Situation in Ukraine

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Military operations in Ukraine continued in four directions - two in the south of the country, one in the east, and one in the north. In all these regions, especially in encircled cities, such as Mariupol and Kharkiv, the humanitarian situation is deteriorating. Despite suffering significant losses, Russia still has the ability to support its fighting units, although it still has difficulties, especially with logistics.

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Cluster Munitions and Thermobaric Weapons in Russia’s Military Tactics in Ukraine

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Despite the relative progress of its offensive in southern Ukraine, Russia is far from achieving the main political goal of regime change or capitulation of the government in Ukraine. Russia might now adapt its forces’ tactics and capabilities for siege and urban warfare in the main cities and capital of Ukraine. Elements of this adaptation might be a much bigger role for cluster munitions and thermobaric weapons, which are especially dangerous for both the defenders and civilians of Ukraine.

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Russia Invades Ukraine

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Agnieszka Legucka,Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

On 24 February at about 5 a.m., the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation began shelling Ukrainian units in the east of the country and carried out rocket and bomb attacks on the airports in Borispol, Ozernoye, Kulbakin, Chuguev, Kramatorsk, and Chernobayevka, as well as on other military facilities throughout Ukraine. At the same time, artillery shelling of Ukrainian territory along the border with Russia and Belarus began. Airspace was closed to civilian aircraft.

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Russian Society on Their Country’s Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

The Russian public is little aware of the scale of their country’s aggression against Ukraine. Only relatively small demonstrations and expressions of support for Ukraine by Russian citizens have taken place in the country. Russians have mostly supported the government’s recognition of the independence of the self-proclaimed “republics” in Donbas and accuse NATO of causing the conflict. The support of the business and power elite for Putin depends on the victory of Russian troops in Ukraine.

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Japan’s and South Korea’s Response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Japan and South Korea condemned the Russian attack on Ukraine and joined the sanctions against Russia, which proves the effectiveness of the U.S. efforts in mobilising its allies. Japan’s stance stems from its predicted repercussions of the invasion for security in the Asia-Pacific region. South Korea’s position initially was more cautious due to concerns of possible economic costs and the deterioration of partnership relations with Russia, but allied solidarity prevailed. The war in Ukraine and the growing tensions between the great powers - the U.S., Russia, and China - may induce Japan and South Korea to expand their defence potential.

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Taliban Victory in Afghanistan: Internal and International Consequences

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

On 15 August, the Taliban entered Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan. After President Ashraf Ghani fled the country, current and former Afghan politicians formed a Transition Council and started negations with the Taliban on the formation of a new government.

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Judgment of the European Court of Human Rights in the case Georgia v. Russia

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

In its judgment of 21 January, the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) held Russia responsible for human rights violations committed after the end of the war in Georgia in August 2008, both by Russian troops and those of separatist authorities under its effective control in the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The ruling opens the way for Georgia to obtain compensation for the victims of violations in the future. It also confirms that the Abkhazian and South Ossetian authorities are subordinate to Russia, serving as proof of the deliberate destabilisation of the situation in Georgia by that state. It also increases the likelihood of favourable rulings for Ukraine and its citizens in cases against Russia pending before the ECtHR concerning human rights violations in the annexed Crimea and occupied Donbas.

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Coup in Myanmar - Democratisation Interrupted

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The 1 February military coup in Myanmar has stopped the country’s democratic transformation, hampers the prospects for peace, and deepens its international isolation. This will be the first major test for the new U.S. administration as it sets out to strengthen democracy around the world. The event may contribute to a joint initiative between the EU and the U.S.

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Israeli-Palestinian Conflict - Escalation and Significance

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

The rapid increase in violence between Israel and Hamas stems primarily from the unstable social situation in Jerusalem and the political calculations of the involved parties. Declarations by the two sides indicate that a high-degree of escalation will continue in the coming days. De-escalation depends on the nature of further attacks, the number of casualties, and the scale of tensions in the West Bank and Israel itself.

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UAE, Bahrain Establish Diplomatic Relations with Israel

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

On 15 September in Washington, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain signed agreements on the establishment of diplomatic relations with Israel. The ceremony exposed almost a decade-long cooperation between several Gulf States and Israel against Iran, and the marginalisation of the Palestinian cause.

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Coup d’état in Mali

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

The unpopular president of Mali, Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, was arrested by rebel soldiers and then resigned. The military promised a quick handover of power to civilians. The political crisis will hinder European military engagement in this key African country.

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Escalation between Turkey and Greece in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

On 10 August, Turkey sent the Oruç Reis research vessel into Mediterranean waters claimed by Greece as lying within its continental shelf. The ship is escorted by the Turkish navy, which prompted Greece to put its army on high alert. Turkey’s actions come as a response to a maritime delimitation deal between Greece and Egypt. The agreement also resulted in the collapse of talks between Greece and Turkey, sponsored by Germany and aimed at de-escalating relations between the states.

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A Gift for Israel: The U.S. Peace Plan

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

The U.S. plan for Israel and Palestine will not lead to peace. If implemented without negotiations with the Palestinians, it will violate international law. In the short term, it will instil Israeli occupation and weaken American mediating capabilities. In the long term, it may, however, result in greater European efforts towards a just peace.

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The Taliban-U.S. Agreement - Still a Long Way to Peace

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The agreement signed in Qatar on 29 February does not end the war in Afghanistan but facilitates the withdrawal of foreign troops from the country. The deal weakens the official authorities in Kabul and strengthens the Taliban ahead of planned peace talks. It may, however, increase President Donald Trump’s re-election chances.

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