Zov rata u Siriji i bosanskohercegovački kontingent stranih boraca : istraživački projekt

Author(s): Vlado Azinović,Muhamed Jusić / Language(s): Bosnian

Povratnici s ratišta u Siriji i Iraku – iskušani u borbama, vješti u rukovanju oružjem i eksplozivom, i ideološki motivirani – općenito se smatraju izravnom prijetnjom ne samo po sigurnost Bosne i Hercegovine nego i po regionalnu i međunarodnu sigurnost jer se vjeruje da bi se nakon povratka u matičnu zemlju mogli priključiti već postojećim mrežama ideološki radikaliziranih osoba i zajednica ili uspostaviti nove. Smatra se također da bi se takve osobe mogle angažirati u procesu radikalizacije i vrbovanja novih boraca za sukobe u Siriji i Iraku ili da bi njihova znanja i iskustvo mogli biti privlačni nekoj od organiziranih kriminalnih skupina.

A people’s peace in Cyprus

Author(s): Aleksandros Lordos,Erol Kaymak,Natalie Tocci / Language(s): English

The year 2009 is decisive for the protracted Cyprus conflict. Incentives for a settlement might be higher and above all more evenly distributed among all parties than in 2004, when the Annan Plan failed due to an overwhelming Greek Cypriot rejection of the proposed blueprint despite Turkish Cypriot acceptance of the plan. Yet while strategic assessments and elite incentives bode cautiously well for a Cyprus settlement, ultimately an agreement will have to be approved by the two Cypriot communities in referendums and above all it will have to be implemented by the Cypriots on the ground. In other words, ordinary Cypriots lie at the crux of the conflict settlement as well as the drawn-out conflict resolution process, determining the ultimate success or failure of any blueprint signed by their leaders.

EU Counter-Terrorism Action. A fault line between law and politics?

Author(s): Elspeth Guild / Language(s): English

The dividing line between law and politics is often difficult to determine. While overtly political actors tend to highlight their capacity to make and change laws and thus control the underlying subject matter of the jurists and so tame legal institutions, legal actors tend to down play the role of politics in their activities. Indeed, in the legal world even the word ‘politics’ is to be avoided as suggesting that its cherished impartiality and independence is sullied by political considerations. In this contribution I will examine a clash between law and politics that is taking place rather publically regarding the EU’s legal reaction to the UN counter-terrorism measure on the freezing of funds.

Russia’s Middle Eastern policy. Regional ambitions, global objectives

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

The Russian military intervention in Syria began in autumn 2015 and was met with a wave of comments claiming that Russia had regained its global power position in the Middle East. The purpose of the present paper is to identify the nature of Russia’s position as a power in the Middle East and to trace the motives guiding the Kremlin’s Middle Eastern policy. The first part attempts to identify the place Middle Eastern policy occupies in the Kremlin’s overall foreign policy and Moscow’s priorities in the region. The second part describes the evolution of post-Soviet Russia’s Middle Eastern policy, pointing to its growing involvement in the region on the one hand, and the instrumental nature of that involvement on the other. Because the Russian military intervention in Syria has been the central element of Russia’s Middle Eastern policy since the autumn of 2015, the third part is devoted to analysing the reasons for and objectives of that intervention. Parts four and five delve into Russia’s policy towards the countries it considers its most important regional partners, i.e. Turkey and Iran. Part six attempts to analyse the instruments with which Russia has built its position in the region and to assess the outcomes of its Middle Eastern policy and the challenges ahead of that policy.

Bliskowschodnia polityka Rosji. Regionalne ambicje, globalne cele

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): Polish

Rosyjska interwencja wojskowa w Syrii, rozpoczęta jesienią 2015 roku, wywołała falę komentarzy głoszących, że Rosja odzyskała pozycję wielkiego mocarstwa na Bliskim Wschodzie. Celem niniejszego tekstu jest po pierwsze ustalenie, na czym polega rosyjska mocarstwowość na Bliskim Wschodzie, a po drugie rekonstrukcja motywów, jakimi kieruje się Kreml w swojej polityce bliskowschodniej. Pierwsza część pracy stanowi próbę określenia miejsca polityki bliskowschodniej w globalnej polityce zagranicznej Kremla oraz zidentyfikowania rosyjskich priorytetów w regionie. Część druga pokazuje ewolucję polityki bliskowschodniej postsowieckiej Rosji, zwracając uwagę z jednej strony na jej rosnące zaangażowanie w regionie, a z drugiej na instrumentalny charakter tego zaangażowania. Ze względu na to, że od jesieni 2015 roku interwencja wojskowa w Syrii stała się centralnym elementem rosyjskiej polityki na Bliskim Wschodzie, analizie jej przyczyn i celów jest poświęcona część trzecia tekstu. W części czwartej i piątej analizowana jest polityka Rosji wobec dwóch najważniejszych z jej punktu widzenia regionalnych partnerów – Turcji i Iranu. Część szósta to próba charakterystyki instrumentów, za pomocą których Rosja zbudowała swoją pozycję w regionie, a także dokonania bilansu rosyjskiej polityki bliskowschodniej i identyfikacji wyzwań, które przed nią stoją.

The best army Ukraine has ever had. Changes in Ukraine’s armed forces since the Russian aggression

Author(s): Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English

In the spring and summer of 2014, for the first time in its history, the Ukrainian army faced the necessity of military involvement to defend its state. After initially failing to engage in action with the enemy – in the form of irregular armed formations, sent from the territory of Russia, which rapidly took over Crimea – and faced with the threat of Ukraine losing the entire eastern and southern part of the country and real, direct aggression from Russia, it launched military action against the so-called separatists. Initially, the Ukrainian armed forces’ actions in the Donbas were carried out on a small scale and were irregular in nature, based on reacting to the enemy’s activity. Along with the systematic increase in the separatists’ potential (thanks to Russia), as well as the direct involvement of the Russian Federation’s armed forces at a critical period in August 2014, the Ukrainian army’s operations took on a regular character, and the entire military potential of Ukraine was involved in defending the territorial integrity of the state. The military activity in the Donbas carried out at that time, and to varying degrees of intensity in the following months, highlighted the Ukrainian army’s weaknesses, as well as its total inability to implement its constitutional duties. This forced the government in Kyiv to take real action to clean up the country’s armed forces.

Młodszy partner Chin. Polityka Rosji wobec problemu koreańskiego

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): Polish

Długofalowym celem polityki Rosji jest uniemożliwienie zjednoczenia Półwyspu Koreańskiego pod egidą Stanów Zjednoczonych oraz osłabienie pozycji USA w regionie. Celem doraźnym jest niedopuszczenie do wybuchu konfliktu zbrojnego na Półwyspie i załamania się państwa północnokoreańskiego.Poparcie Rosji dla idei zjednoczenia obu państw koreańskich jest czysto deklaratywne, w praktyce Kreml dąży do utrzymania politycznego status quo na Półwyspie. Rosji zależy na maksymalizacji wpływów poprzez rozwijanie relacji gospodarczych i podtrzymywanie kontaktów politycznych z oboma państwami koreańskimi. Denuklearyzacja Korei Północnej nie jest priorytetem dla Moskwy, która traktuje problem nuklearnego programu Pjongjangu w sposób instrumentalny, jako okoliczność, która stwarza wprawdzie pewne ryzyko, ale zarazem przynosi Rosji szereg korzyści. Dotychczasowy przebieg kryzysu pokazał, że Rosja nie ma wystarczających narzędzi, aby wpłynąć na bieg wydarzeń. W konsekwencji musiała zaakceptować rolę „młodszego partnera” Chin w kwestii koreańskiej.

The Commentaries – Volume 1, 2021

Author(s): / Language(s): English

The Commentaries is a journal that publishes analysis, evaluations and assessments of contemporary developments in Turkey, Turkey’s role in the MENA region, and Turkey-EU relations. It does so for a broad audience of scholars, policy-makers, professionals and students. The aim of the commentaries is to draw attention to current advances, discuss policies and practices, and to stimulate critical discussion and theoretical reflection. The Commentaries is an initiative of the European Union Turkey Civic Commission (EUTCC). However, views expressed in The Commentaries do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the EUTCC (EU-Turkey Civic Commission) nor its members. Submissions to The Commentaries are reviewed by the editorial board. Commentaries are published online. Print copies of The Commentaries are published on a yearly basis.

Global Maritime Geopolitics

Author(s): / Language(s): English

States must develop new approaches, maritime policies, strategies and tactics to cruise through contemporary maritime politics. Soft power, as well as economic, commercial, and logistics factors are of critical importance in establishing marine power. It is critical to promote maritime-related products such as films, serials, literature and art, maritime journalism, and maritime photography as part of governmental policies. Marine and maritime security challenges are becoming more important in today’s world. As a result of all these developments, the preparation of a multidimensional and comprehensive work on the oceans and seas at the global level has been brought to the agenda. Our book has been written to elucidate these concerns and contribute to this important scholarly and policy field. This book can also be useful for wider audiences as a comprehensive volume on maritime geopolitics covering many cases from around the world and discussions from Turkish perspectives.

Україна: шлях до консолідації суспільства: національна доповідь

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): Ukrainian

The report examines the issues of the consolidation of Ukrainian society in the situation of social and economic, internal and foreign policy crisis, the state of national solidarity is assessed, the causes and factors of confrontational phenomena in public relations are disclosed, the model of national solidarity and strategy for its achievement are developed.

Social Media Manipulation 2021/2022: Assessing the Ability of Social Media Companies to Combat Platform Manipulation

Author(s): Sebastian Bay,Rolf Fredheim,Tetiana Haiduchyk,Anton Dek / Language(s): English

The ongoing war in Ukraine has shown the importance of being able to defend and influence the information environment in order to win a modern conflict. Coordinated social media manipulation campaigns continue to be an important tool for adversaries. Therefore, assessing the abilities of social media companies to protect their platforms against manipulation continues to be important for understanding how well our societies are able to protect our information environment against antagonistic threats. To further our understanding of platform manipulation, we re-ran our groundbreaking experiment to assess the ability of social media companies to counter platform manipulation. This year, we added a sixth social media platform, VKontakte, to our experiment. To test the ability of social media companies to identify and remove manipulation, we bought inauthentic engagement on 46 posts on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, YouTube, TikTok, and VKontakte (“the platforms”), using three high-quality Russian social media manipulation service providers.

Russia's Strategy in Cyberspace

Author(s): Janne Hakala,Jazlyn Melnychuk / Language(s): English

Headlines connecting Russia to the vague notion of ‘cyber’ have become daily bread for Western publics and decision makers alike. From the damage done by NotPetya or attacks against Ukraine and Georgia, to Russia’s hacking and leaking operations in US and European elections, Russia’s offensive operations are consistent threat. An increasingly important tool in what Russia views as the ongoing “information confrontation,” Russia utilizes cyber operations alongside other military and non-military means to pursue strategic objectives. On the other hand, recent years have seen Russia’s attempts to close and secure its own digital information space. By using a combination of legal and technical means, the Kremlin tries to impose control both over digital infrastructure and content, efforts which are aimed at ensuring independence from the global Internet network and thus enhancing their information security. Russia sees activities in cyberspace as a subset to the all-encompassing framework of ‘information confrontation,’ which is derived from the Russian understanding of relations between states and, more specifically, a subset of the struggle between great powers for influence in the world. According to Russian thinkers, the information confrontation is constant and ongoing, and any means can be used to gain superiority in this confrontation.

Teoretičari klasične geopolitike - ciklus predavanja

Author(s): Filip Kovačević / Language(s): Montenegrine

Kraj hladnog rata označio je povratak geopolitike kao discipline. Od kada je taj povratak najavio francuski teoretičar Iv Lakost, u prvom broju geopolitičkog časopisa ,,Herodot“, u međuvremenu geopolitika je dobila na značaju. Na izvjestan način, geopolitika je ušla u modu, široko upotrebljavana u medijskom, političkom i akademskom svijetu. Iako se radi o klasičnoj disciplini duže istorijske tradicije, geopolitika je imala i svoj sumrak, postajući i svojevrstan tabu između kraja Drugog svjetskog rata i završetka Hladnog rata 90-ih godina prošlog vijeka. Naime, riječ geopolitika bi u navedenom periodu jako asocirala na režime totalitarnog karaktera, posebno nacizma. Jedan od najistaknutijih teoretičara geopolitike XX vijeka general Karl Haushofer, osnivač i direktor Minhenske škole i uticajnog časopisa “Zeitschrift fur Geopolitik”, smatran je za doktrinarnog inspiratora ekspanzionizma Hitlerovog Trećeg rajha. Međunarodni sistem zasnovan na dogovoru velikih sila na Jalti 1945. godine o podjeli sfera uticaja je donio hladni rat i u njemu paradoksalna ,,pravila i izvjesnosti“, uz ravnotežu snaga i straha od nuklearnog rata, kontrolisane sukobe na periferiji, propagandno takmičenje u kojem je geopolitičko promišljanje zamijenjeno oštrim ideološkim generalizacijama Istok - Zapad, komunizam - kapitalizam, sloboda - totalitarizam, zlo - dobro.

In Memoriam Centar Sarajevo (1992-1995)

Author(s): / Language(s): Bosnian

According to the research conducted by the Association for Social Research and Communication, 42 memorials were built in the area of the Municipality of Centar Sarajevo dedicated to those who died and those who suffered during the war against Bosnia and Herzegovina (1992 – 1995). There are more memorials dedicated to fallen fighters than to civilians. Thus, of the total number of memorials, 17 are dedicated to civilian victims of the war, and 25 were built as an act of honoring fallen members of military units, most often members of the Army of the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina (ARBIH), but also the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MUP), and members of foreign military units. Memorials were built in twelve local communities.

Putevima sjećanja – Fotografski prikazi memorijalizacije u BiH

Author(s): / Language(s): Bosnian

The team that worked on the selection and photographing of monuments passed the route Sarajevo – Brčko via Kladanj and back via Gračanica and Doboj. The route of about 400 kilometers covered several towns and municipalities, and as a result, the material was presented in a catalog of photographs of the monuments, which best illustrates the examples of dealing with the past in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Preliminary Results of the Research within the Free Movement of People and Goods between Kosovo and Serbia in the Context of Regional Cooperation Project

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Draft version of the project focused on freedom of movement of people and commodities between Serbia and Kosovo in the light of regional cooperation was made back in November 2010. At that time, there were no indications that there was going to be a dialog between Belgrade and Pristina in Brussels, or when this dialog was going to be held. First subject on the agenda of these negotiations was also unforeseeable ‐ freedom of movement of people and commodities, an issue that later on in summer 2011 caused dramatic events in North Kosovo. In early February, draft version of this project was presented to certain EU officials in Brussels, who then suggested the Center for Regionalism as the proponent of the project to approach the EU Delegation in Belgrade which was at that time publishing a call for proposals with fitting propositions for given project's subject. Project was approved by the EU Delegation in late June and activities began in early July, when Belgrade‐Pristina negotiations in Brussels were well on their way, where issues targeted by this project were addressed at the very beginning. In early stages of project realization, expert team was formed, with following members from Serbia: ‐ Predrag Bjelić, Ph.D., Associate Professor University of Belgrade Faculty of Economics expert in the field of movement of goods ‐ Bisera Seceragic, economist, expert in the field of grey economy ‐ Vladimir Petronijevic, project consultant, segment on the freedom of movement of people Following experts from Kosovo were engaged in this project: ‐ Doruntina Vinca, BA Anthropology and Political Science, segment on the freedom of movement of people ‐ Hajrulla Çeku, MA, lecturer of Local Government and Politics, segment on the freedom of goods They jointly worked on data collection and processing in regard of freedom of movement of people and commodities. Main goal of expert team's work was to create a report which includes recommendations for Governments in Belgrade and Pristina, and for EU as a mediator in these negotiations.

NORDIJSKI MODEL SARADNJE I MOGUĆNOST NJEGOVE PRIMENE

Author(s): / Language(s): English,Serbian

Regional cooperation in the Balkans, and particularly within the ”Dayton Four“, made a significant progress in recent years. It was particularly driven by a more decisive trying for war crimes, being a key assumption of reconciliation following the conflicts in earlier periods, a more efficient joint fighting crime and corruption – through a much better cooperation of judicial bodies and the police of the countries of this reigon, better economic linking and a more successful economic cooperation by turning the region in a free-trade zone, as well as an overall progress of all countries in European integration process which itself enables and encourages such cooperation. The prevailing context of regional cooperation significantly improved, and in particular the overall political climate, as well as the political will of the leading political figures to have good relations with neighbours. In spite of undoubted results, many of which were inconceivable only a few years ago, some old barriers to regional cooperation still exist, along with some new ones that were created meanwhile. Disagreements regarding the status of Kosovo and the constitutional solutions in Bosnia and Herzegovina are the best, i.e. the most difficult to overcome examples of old barriers, whereas the economic protectionism and again growing political nationalism, as consequences of bad responses to the current economic crisis – are the examples of the new ones. Neither earlier nor recently a satisfactory answer to old problems that cooperation in a region encounters following a promising growth, was not found. It is about an insufficient coordination of numerous initiatives and organisations, as well as about often vague priorities cooperation is to be governed by. There is a growing awareness that a regional cooperation is on a sui generis crossroad. Although the existing forms of cooperation and integration have not been fully utilised, there is a growing need for a new approach which would be a strong impetus both for the existing and possible new forms and ways of cooperation. Therefore, it is not about initial steps, which we all together, luckily, left behind us long time ago, but about a transition to an advanced, higher and a higher quality phase

OTVORENA PITANJA U IGMANSKOM KVARTETU - PARTNERI I (ILI) SUPARNICI

Author(s): Milan Simurdić / Language(s): Serbian

KOSOVO’s ETHNIC DILEMMA: The Need for a Civic Contract (ICG Balkans Report N°143)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

ICG proposes the creation of a real incentive structure to treat minorities as full and equal citizens, with clear penalties for bad behaviour and rewards for good behaviour. A committee on public services for minorities should also be established, outlining what needs to be done to improve service provision and formulating a gradual plan to dissolve parallel structures. The electoral system should be reworked so that politicians (of all ethnicities) at the central level are more accountable. A Charter of Rights outlining individual and group rights should be established, accompanied by a strong judicial instrument that ensures the enforcement of these rights. And while the decentralisation initiative should pay special attention to the needs of minority communities, UNMIK and the Council of Europe should exercise extreme caution before drawing any boundaries on an ethnic basis, even for sub-municipal units. The focus should be on improving local governance and ensuring that municipal bodies have the capacity and resources to do their job.

MACEDONIA: No Room for Complacency (ICG Balkans Report № 149)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In the absence of a more concerted effort to implement Ohrid, establish law and order, fight corruption and stimulate the economy, the relative calm could soon unravel. Macedonia still needs security assistance. The EU’s “Concordia” military mission should stay beyond its putative end date of 15 December 2003, until its “Proxima” police mission is fully established and has made up key intelligence and coordination deficiencies in the security sector, and Macedonia’s police and government are able both to conduct effective operations and manage the political fallout. There is also a need to close out the legacy of the 2001 fighting. There are no excuses for further delay in screening the handful of potential war crimes cases, rebuilding a half-dozen destroyed churches and mosques and resolving the twenty missing persons cases. Donors must insist that moribund media institutions they fund begin to function, particularly in the monitoring and control of hate speech. However, none of these steps is likely to be taken without a more sober, less self-congratulatory assessment of Macedonia’s track record to date.