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Three Months of Russian Intervention in Syria: The Military and Political Implications

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

As Russia’s military operation in Syria passes the three-month mark, the milestone demonstrates not only the growing capacity of the country’s expeditionary forces (aviation in particular) but also highlights their weaknesses, primarily logistical problems and the lack of equipment. On one hand, such long-term actions will be a growing challenge to Russia’s finances, but for its military they are an opportunity to test equipment and new types of weapons. Russia’s engagement in Syria has not reduced its involvement in Ukraine. At the same time, the success of its military operations in Syria are important because they are intended to strengthen Russia’s position during any peace talks on Syria, which may have a secondary effect of increasing its importance, not only in the Middle East but also in the international arena.

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Russian Foreign Fighters: Time for Syria?

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

Foreign fighters have been successfully utilised by Russia during the conflict in Ukraine, where they formed a key element of the separatist forces. Due to Russia’s escalating involvement in Syria, and its Ukraine-based foreign fighters’ often and vocally professed desire to fight against the Islamic State, one could assume that Moscow, while officially denying rumours of being involved in ground operations in Syria, may not shy away from deploying such fighters there. However, this will carry risks far greater than those in Ukraine, and could yield negative consequences for Russia.

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№173: Turkey’s Soft-Power Crisis in Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Since the 1990s, Turkey has been developing its soft power in Africa to support its economic and political expansion south of the Sahara. Schools and other institutions associated with the Fethullah Gülen movement (Hizmet) were instrumental in building Turkish-oriented local elites, raising interest in Turkish culture, and building Turkey’s image as synonymous with success. However, the fallout from the 2016 coup attempt in Ankara marked the definitive end of the synergy between Hizmet and the Turkish state. This created a new context in which Turkey’s pressures and direct interference in African governments’ affairs accompany a revision of its soft-power instruments. In times of increasing competition for influence on the continent, disillusionment about the neutrality of Turkey and other authoritarian newcomers to Africa—Russia, United Arab Emirates—raises the appeal of the EU as a partner.

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№50: Zakarpattia: A New Powder Keg in Ukraine?

Author(s): Dariusz Kałan / Language(s): English

Some features of Ukraine’s southwestern Zakarpattia Oblast—geographical exclusivity, poor historical links with Ukrainian statehood, independence of local politicians, and ethnic groups’ aspirations for autonomy—could suggest similarities to Crimea. However, a key factor that rules out a repeat of the Crimean scenario is the limited influence of Russia in the oblast. It does not mean that the region is not exposed to any decentralization movements. It seems that now the biggest challenge to the central government in Kyiv regarding Zakarpattia are the ambitions of local elites who have both sufficient financial independence and political tools in the form of non-regulated Hungarian and Ruthenian issues to take part, in the most pessimistic assumption, in the region’s destabilization.

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№41: Understanding EU Action during “Euromaidan:” Lessons for the Next Phase

Author(s): Roderick Parkes,Anita Sobják / Language(s): English

During Euromaidan, a lack of cohesion between Member States left the EU pursuing a basic “tipping point” approach: rather than offering Ukraine a large-scale transformation package, the EU tried to apply targeted pressure on the players involved (Moscow, Washington, Ukraine’s politicians and society), and to tip each onto a positive course. The approach was weak, and only last-minute political intervention from a trio of Member States prevented Ukraine’s wholesale descent into chaos and violent repression. Analysis of the political dynamics behind this fragmented response should, however, allow the EU to take a more coherent position, on Ukraine and in the wider region, in the future. Poland is well-placed to lead that approach.

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№11: A Broker, not a Banker: How the EU Can Help the Middle East Peace Process

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

The peace process in the Middle East is about to collapse. When at the beginning of 2009 it seemed that the major force – the United States – was coming back into play, expectations rose. However, 11 months into Barack Obama’s presidency there is little, if any, hope left that the strategy of the new American administration can wield any positive results. This diplomatic standstill is detrimental to the international community’s interests because it serves extremists and, if sustained, could soon lead to an escalation of tensions. The US, weakened by the economic crisis and intensely engaged in Afghanistan, would benefit from renewed involvement by the European Union. The way forward in the Middle East peace process is to bring additional mediators onto the field to act in concert with the US. There are no guarantees of success, but so far the EU’s potential to impact the Middle Eastern situation has never been seriously tested.

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Reorientation of Romania’s Moldova Policy

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

In January, Romania’s authorities announced they will suspend assistance for Moldova and distancing themselves from its leaders. The reason was the takeover of rule in Moldova by the pro-Russia Party of Socialists led by President Igor Dodon. That negated the fundamental assumption of Romanian policy towards Moldova—that Moldovans are part of the Romanian nation. Guided by that assumption, the Romanian authorities had for a long time within the European Union uncritically supported Moldovan governments, which, while making pro-Romania gestures, were compromising the idea of European integration. Romania’s current distancing from the Moldovan authorities may make it easier for the EU to settle the reforms included in the Association Agreement.

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Reorientacja rumuńskiej polityki wobec Mołdawii

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): Polish

W styczniu br. Rumunia ogłosiła wstrzymanie pomocy dla Mołdawii i odcięła się od jej władz. Powodem było przejęcie rządów w tym kraju przez prorosyjską Partię Socjalistów prezydenta Igora Dodona. Negują oni przynależność Mołdawian do narodu rumuńskiego – fundamentalne założenie polityki Rumunii wobec Mołdawii. Kierując się nim, władze rumuńskie przez lata bezkrytycznie wspierały na forum UE mołdawskie rządy, które wprawdzie czyniły gesty prorumuńskie, ale kompromitowały ideę europejską. Dlatego zdystansowanie się Rumunii wobec mołdawskich władz może ułatwić Unii rozliczanie ich z reform przewidzianych w umowie stowarzyszeniowej.

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Greece’s Eastern Mediterranean Policy

Author(s): Maciej Pawłowski / Language(s): English

Greece aims to strengthen its political and economic position in the Eastern Mediterranean, which was weakened after the economic crisis of 2008–2013. Among the ways to regain this stature are through access to natural resources and participation in regional alliances. The Greeks perceive Turkey as the main threat to achieving these goals. It is in the EU’s interest to foster better relations between the two countries and to find compromise in disputes between them.

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Polityka Grecji we wschodniej części Morza Śródziemnego

Author(s): Maciej Pawłowski / Language(s): Polish

Grecja dąży do umocnienia swojej pozycji politycznej i gospodarczej we wschodniej części Morza Śródziemnego, osłabionej w wyniku kryzysu ekonomicznego z lat 2008–2013. Sprzyjać ma temu uzyskanie dostępu do zasobów naturalnych oraz uczestnictwo w regionalnych sojuszach. Jako główne zagrożenie dla realizacji swoich celów Grecja postrzega Turcję. W interesie UE jest doprowadzenie do poprawy relacji między tymi państwami i wypracowania kompromisów w sporach między nimi.

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Prospects for Changes in China-Taiwan Relations

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

The second consecutive victory in presidential and parliamentary elections in Taiwan of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which opposes the PRC, is a challenge for mainland China and its relations with the island. As the prospects of reunification are fading, the PRC may be forced to offer Taiwan a new formula for dialogue. The Taiwanese authorities will increasingly emphasize the island’s separateness from the mainland, as well as its well-functioning democracy. Taiwan is counting on the support of other countries, taking advantage of their growing concerns about China.

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Perspektywy zmian w stosunkach chińsko-tajwańskich

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): Polish

Drugie z rzędu zwycięstwo w wyborach prezydenckich i parlamentarnych rządzącej Tajwanem Demokratycznej Partii Postępowej (DPP), nieprzychylnej ChRL, stanowi wyzwanie dla Chin i ich stosunków z wyspą. Ponieważ oddala się perspektywa zjednoczenia, ChRL może być zmuszona zaproponować Tajwanowi nową formułę dialogu. Tajwańskie władze będą coraz wyraźniej podkreślać odrębność wyspy, w tym dobrze funkcjonujący tam ustrój demokratyczny. Liczą na wsparcie innych państw, wykorzystując ich narastającą obawę przed działaniami Chin.

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The Political Significance of the Trump Israeli-Palestinian Peace Plan

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

The plan announced by U.S. President Donald Trump will not break the deadlock in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. For all involved parties, the plan will remain a point of reference for political and diplomatic actions in the coming months. The key factors of future developments would be Israel’s decision on the possible annexation of parts of the West Bank and, in the long-run, the outcome of this fall’s U.S. presidential elections.

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Plan pokojowy Trumpa – znaczenie polityczne

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): Polish

Plan ogłoszony przez prezydenta Donalda Trumpa nie przełamie impasu w izraelsko-palestyńskim procesie pokojowym. Dla zaangażowanych stron i społeczności międzynarodowej będzie w najbliższych miesiącach punktem odniesienia w działaniach politycznych i dyplomatycznych. Dla rozwoju sytuacji kluczowa będzie decyzja Izraela co do aneksji części Zachodniego Brzegu, a w dłuższej perspektywie – rezultat wyborów prezydenckich w USA.

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Further Lack of Progress in Settling the Situation in Donbas

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Despite the resumption of negotiations at the highest level of the Normandy Format (Ukraine, Russia, Germany, France) in Paris last December, the deadlock regarding the situation in Donbas was not broken. None of the main provisions of the Paris summit has been implemented so far. The likely lack of agreement at the next Normandy meeting, initially scheduled for the beginning of the second quarter of this year, may prompt Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to intensify bilateral talks with Russia.

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Brak postępu w sprawie uregulowania sytuacji w Donbasie

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): Polish

Mimo wznowienia w grudniu ub.r. w Paryżu negocjacji na najwyższym szczeblu w formacie normandzkim (Ukraina, Rosja, Niemcy, Francja) nie doszło do przełamania impasu w sprawie Donbasu. Żadne z głównych postanowień paryskiego szczytu nie zostało jak dotąd zrealizowane. Prawdopodobny brak porozumienia na kolejnym szczycie formatu, zaplanowanym wstępnie na początek II kwartału br., może skłonić prezydenta Ukrainy Wołodymyra Zełenskiego do intensyfikacji dwustronnych rozmów z Rosją.

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The Estonia-Russia Border Dispute

Author(s): Kinga Raś,Rafał Tarnogórski / Language(s): English

The centennial of the Treaty of Tartu between the Republic of Estonia and Soviet Russia in February 2020 did not end the border dispute. In 1944, the Soviet authorities changed the borders and since then, 5% of the territory of pre-war Estonia remains under Russia’s control. It argues the change was legally justified and that the region has not shown any willingness to adjust its borders back to those of the interwar period. Estonia, though, aims to assert its statehood, and some elites are directly raising claims. This means the continuation of the stalemate over the border, which will negatively impact bilateral relations.

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Estońsko-rosyjski spór graniczny

Author(s): Kinga Raś,Rafał Tarnogórski / Language(s): Polish

Przypadająca w lutym 2020 r. setna rocznica rosyjsko-estońskiego traktatu pokojowego z Tartu nie przyniosła zakończenia sporu granicznego. W 1944 r. władze sowieckie zmieniły granice wewnętrzne i od tamtej pory 5% terytorium przedwojennej Estonii pozostaje pod kontrolą rosyjską. Rosja uznała, że miało to uzasadnienie prawne, i nie przejawia woli korekty granic na te z okresu międzywojennego. Estonia stoi na stanowisku kontynuacji państwowości, a część elit wprost podnosi roszczenia. Oznacza to utrzymywanie się patowej sytuacji, co będzie się negatywnie przekładać na stosunki dwustronne.

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Turkey’s Involvement in Libya

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Turkey became involved in the internal conflict in Libya as the main supporter of the Government of National Accord (GNA) led by Fayez al-Sarraj because of Turkish decision-makers’ conviction of Libya’s key role in securing Turkey’s interests in the Eastern Mediterranean. The Turks want to engineer a new status quo in which the resolution of regional disputes without their participation will not be possible. They also want to use their actions in Libya to gain new instruments of pressure on the EU.

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Turcja wobec Libii

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): Polish

Turcja zaangażowała się w konflikt wewnętrzny w Libii po stronie Rządu Zgody Narodowej (RZN) Fajiza as-Sarradża. Było to skutkiem przekonania tureckich decydentów o kluczowej roli Libii dla realizacji interesów Turcji we wschodniej części Morza Śródziemnego. Dzięki swojemu zaangażowaniu Turcy chcą doprowadzić do sytuacji, w której rozwiązanie regionalnych sporów bez ich udziału będzie niemożliwe. Chcą też wykorzystać działania w Libii do zyskania nowych środków nacisku na UE.

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