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Ukraine Successful in Holding Russia to Account at the European Court of Human Rights

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

The decision of the European Court of Human Rights(ECtHR) issued on 25 January opens the way to hold Russia accountable for human rights violations in eastern Ukraine and order it to pay compensation. It also challenges numerous theses of Russian propaganda regarding Ukraine and the positions of countries sharing Russia’s point of view. At the same time, the decision reaffirms the importance of documenting the violations committed and the need to develop international mechanisms to pay compensation awarded in case Russia refuses to do so.

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China Becoming Globally More Active in the Security Sphere

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China is expanding its potential to project power abroad. It includes legal changes, expansion of military infrastructure in other countries, and cooperation with partners in the Pacific. An example of their activity in the field of security is the operations of Chinese security companies, mainly in the Middle East and Africa. This should encourage NATO to further deepen cooperation with its members and partners, including with Pacific countries, as well as to strengthen the coordination of EU and U.S. policy towards developing countries.

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NATO after Madrid: how much deterrence and defence on the eastern flank?

Author(s): Jacek Tarociński,Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

NATO’s new Strategic Concept adopted at the Madrid summit defines Russia as the most significant and direct threat to allied security and does not rule out the possibility of an attack against any of the Allies. NATO intends to strengthen its deterrence and defence posture, but there will be no revolutionary change in its military presence on the eastern flank. The compromise reached at the summit implies there will be limited reinforcements of the existing battle groups and a pre-assignment of forces stationed primarily in Western Europe. Additionally, NATO will develop a new Force Model by increasing the pool of higher readiness forces fitted into defence planning and subordinated to SACEUR. This may prove to be a much more far-reaching decision for the future of the allied deterrence and defence posture but it remains to be seen how it will be implemented in practice. Nor will changes be seen in the US military presence on the eastern flank from rotational to permanent – with the minor exception of the V Corps Headquarters Forward Command Post. Washington will, though, place a second rotational brigade in the Black Sea region. Overall, the security of the eastern flank will be strengthened in the coming years, but not to the extent expected by those NATO members bordering Russia.

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Three weeks of war: Putin’s tactical dilemmas

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Three weeks after the start of the war against Ukraine, the Kremlin’s political objectives have not been achieved. The resistance from the Ukrainian armed forces persists, the morale of Ukrainian society is high, and the very serious sanctions imposed by the international community on Russia are causing an economic crisis and the partial political isolation of the country. There are many indications that this situation has largely come as a surprise to the Kremlin, which has fallen victim to faulty analysis and forecasting. In this situation, the man responsible for the decision to invade, the Russian President Vladimir Putin, faces the challenge of which further tactics of action to choose. It is now difficult to predict further developments, as these will depend particularly on the level of Ukrainian resistance, the scale of Western support and the immediate effects of sanctions. Of the many possible scenarios, the most likely now seems to be that of either halting the Russian offensive once a political agreement to implement some of the Kremlin’s political demands has been reached; or continuing it for a longer period of time, leading to Russia’s seizure of significant areas (especially the south-east of Ukraine) and the destruction of key elements of its military and civil infrastructure, turning the country into a failed state.

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The EU’s security and defence policy: in search of a compass

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

In the EU, work is underway on the Strategic Compass, a security strategy that is intended to define the Union’s priorities in crisis management, capability development, partnerships and resilience for the next 5–10 years. It aims to define the EU’s role in an increasingly complex security environment where NATO and the US are redefining their priorities. The Strategic Compass is also intended to maintain the momentum of the EU initiatives launched in 2016, such as the Permanent Structured Cooperation or the European Defence Fund. The process of developing the document, and the EU’s security and defence policy in general, has been marred by the member states’ conflicting threat perceptions and interests. Nevertheless, under pressure from France and the European Commission, the EU has been making some progress in this area. The Strategic Compass will set the framework for Union’s future actions. However, implementing the strategy will depend on the member states’ commitment to the means and goals agreed, and thus cannot reflect the interests of one group of EU countries alone.

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Ukraine’s disputes over the 80th anniversary of the Babi Yar massacre

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English

On 29 September 2021 and 6 October 2021 two competing ceremonies were held in Kyiv to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the massacre at Babi Yar, where Kyiv Jews and representatives of other ethnic and political groups were exterminated. No comprehensive commemoration of these crimes was offered, either during the Soviet era or in the last 30 years of Ukraine’s independence. It was only in recent years that two projects to commemorate the Babi Yar massacre emerged. However, a sharp dispute between their initiators is ongoing. The first project, proposed by the Academy of Sciences and supported by ‘patriotic’ groups, presents the Holocaust against the backdrop of the martyrdom of other nations, and views Ukraine as a victim of two totalitarian systems. The other project, which is a private initiative, focuses on commemorating the genocide of the Jews on Ukrainian soil. However, this one has sparked controversy mainly due to the involvement in it of sponsors and contributors from Russia. This project has received backing from both the Ukrainian and Israeli governments due to its advanced stage of implementation, its cutting-edge design and its focus on Holocaust.

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USA – Germany – NATO’s eastern flank. Transformation of the US military presence in Europe

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

At the end of July, US Defence Secretary Mark Esper announced plans to withdraw approximately 12 000 US troops from Germany. Reactions in Berlin were varied. The main narrative is that of Germany being penalised and transatlantic ties being undermined. In anticipation of the US presidential election, the federal government is being guarded in its statements. The German federal states affected by the cuts have started lobbying to stop the plans. The political parties in Germany are divided in their views on the Trump administration’s decision, which is welcomed by almost half of German society. Regardless of the motives, the Pentagon’s plans show the trend in the restructuring of the US permanent military presence in Europe. US permanent forces in Europe could in future be cut further as the US is less and less engaged in the Middle East and Africa. The units being recalled from Germany will not be moved permanently to allies east of the Oder. For NATO’s eastern flank, the Pentagon is developing the concept of a flexible, scalable presence, allowing rapid reductions, but also rapid reinforcement of US forces. The changes to the US military presence in Europe are challenging for the European allies. A departure from the standard debate on the US’ withdrawal from Europe or on the NATO-Russia Founding Act is needed. The discussion is overdue on how to adapt to the transformation of the US presence with regard to collective defence within NATO, and how Europe, and not only France, should engage in crisis management in the European neighborhood.

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Northern Kosovo Dispute Escalates Again

Author(s): Filip Bryjka,Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

Extraordinary by-elections in the north of Kosovo scheduled originally for 18 and 25 December of this year are now not due to take place until 2023. Both the original announcement and the postponement of the elections are iterations of the ongoing Serbia-Kosovo dispute. It was exacerbated by Kosovo’s progress in European integration, including its 15 December application for EU membership, and Serbian favouritism of Russia in its war with Ukraine. Failure to effectively resolve the dispute increases the risk of destabilisation in the Balkans, including in connection with this war.

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Russian Attacks May Prompt Increased Refugee Flows from Ukraine

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

Russia is continuing its intensive attacks on critical infrastructure in Ukraine. These are deliberate actions that violate international humanitarian law and are aimed at breaking the morale of Ukrainian society. Power outages mean that many towns and villages are not only without heating but also without water. Further devastation and the difficulty of repairs could trigger a humanitarian catastrophe. Most of the population will try to survive the winter in their current residences or by resettling in smaller towns. Increased refugee movement across borders, especially to Poland, is also possible.

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Prospects For Russia’s Policy Towards Afghanistan

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Taking advantage of the withdrawal of the U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan, Russia intends to strengthen its influence in that country by increasing contacts with the Afghan government and the Taliban. The aim is to become a key mediator in the peace process, which will enable it to influence the participants, increase control over the situation in Afghanistan, and use it in relations with the countries of the region. Russia’s policy may make the stabilisation of Afghanistan more difficult and undermine the effects of the efforts made by NATO countries during the stabilisation mission.

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Cautious Triumphalism: China on Afghanistan

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and the end of the U.S. military mission is being used by China as evidence of the failure of American interventionism. Chinese propaganda emphasises the advantage of its own model of relations with other countries, marked by the declared lack of interference in their internal affairs. The Chinese authorities do not want to engage economically in Afghanistan for the time being, as they do not believe that the Taliban will provide efficient administration or security for possible investments. China instead will focus on political support and limited humanitarian aid in cooperation with regional countries, as well as with the EU.

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Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan: Consequences for NATO

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan will not change NATO’s overall threat perception, which will be shaped mainly by the military threat from Russia, challenges related to the rise of China, and instability in Europe’s neighborhood. Criticism of NATO may, however, influence discussions on a new strategy, which should facilitate adaptation of the Alliance to new threat assessment. There will be increased pressure on the development of crisis-response capabilities within the coalition of the willing and the European Union.

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The Fall of Afghanistan: The Biden Administration’s First Crisis

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan sparked the first major crisis of confidence in President Joe Biden and his administration, both in the U.S. and internationally. It has affected the administration’s relations with Democrats in Congress, whose confidence in the president has weakened. This narrows the president’s freedom to conduct foreign policy. At the same time, the way the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan will be used by its rivals to undermine American guarantees to Allies and the U.S. standing in the international arena.

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Ukraine’s Foreign Policy Strategy

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

The president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, approved in August this year the first Foreign Policy Strategy in the country’s history. According to the document, Ukraine’s main goal is membership in the EU and NATO and an end to the conflict with Russia. Like in the National Security Strategy, Ukraine included Poland in the second group of strategic partners. Cooperation with Poland is to be deepened and developed, not only bilaterally but also as part of multilateral formats in the region.

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Strategic Patience: French Interests and the Dialogue with Russia

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Concerns about Mali’s plans to invite the private military company Wagner Group for security operations, the forced migration hybrid attack by Belarus on the EU’s borders, and the aggravation of the situation in eastern Ukraine have renewed a discussion in France on relations with Russia. Despite warnings from some experts, President Emmanuel Macron believes that direct dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin is the only way to resolve the disputes. The French authorities are avoiding a more resolute policy towards Russia, fearing the reaction of the pro-Russia opposition, the weakening of France’s position towards the U.S., and the growing importance of NATO.

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The Franco-Turkish Tensions

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka,Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

The Franco-Turkish feud amid the Libyan conflict in which the two support opposite parties, moves to the EU and NATO. France argues that Turkey’s actions endanger EU security and NATO cohesion and calls for a more critical policy towards this country. Turkey demands respect for its interests, which would require France to change its perception of the dangers on the Southern Flank. Reinforcing the UN peace process in Libya or mediations by the future U.S. administration could mitigate this conflict.

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Mali after the Coup

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

In August, a group of officers overthrew the president of Mali. This further complicated the fragile situation in the country. While the military has delegated some power to a transitional civilian government, it wants to retain influence over major decisions. The EU’s priority remains the strengthening of Malian institutions so that the state ceases to be a seedbed of jihadism and criminality that threatens Europe’s neighbourhood.

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The Military Dimension of the Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Azerbaijan’s military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) ended with the signing on 9 November of a truce with Armenia. The effectiveness of the offensive resulted from the large-scale use of combat drones, which significantly supported Special Forces. The defeat of the Armenian forces came from errors in defence, the disproportionate weaponry used by Azerbaijan, the lack of adequate electronic warfare systems, and an insufficient counterintelligence shield.

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Russia’s Use of Chemical Weapons: Consequences for NATO

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

The report by the expert group on NATO reform, published in early December, emphasises the need to strengthen the defence of NATO member states and troops against chemical weapons. The use of the Novichok substance in the attempted murder of Russian oppositionist Alexei Navalny confirmed that Russia has this weapon of mass destruction prohibited by treaty.

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African Union, United Nations, and the Crisis in Ethiopia

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Ethiopia’s military offensive in Tigray achieved the central government’s primary goal of regaining control over state territory. However, the Ethiopian authorities has not proposed a viable political solution, which heralds a long-lasting guerrilla conflict. Their rejection of African Union (AU) mediation means there is a need for greater international effort - including by Europe - at stabilisation.

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