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Non-military aspects of security in V4 countries—prospects for co-operation

Author(s): / Language(s): English

The Polish Institute of International Affairs has published the third issue of the “V4 Papers” titled “Non-military aspects of security in V4 countries—prospects for co-operation”. The volume edited by Dr Kacper Rękawek of the Polish Institute of International Affairs analyses past experiences and prospects for V4 cooperation while combatting non-military threats like international terrorism and organised crime to the region.The publication is a part of a project "Creating a Sphere of Security in Wider Central Europe: Sharing V4 Know-how in Cooperation on Security with the Neighbouring Regions" supported by the International Visegrad Fund.

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Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Although the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is one of Turkey’s closest partners, Ankara disapproved of this week’s independence referendum. Yet, Turkey did not take actions that would have forced the Iraqi Kurds to postpone or cancel the vote. That suggests Turkish politicians’ stance on the referendum was dictated by domestic political considerations and will harden only if the situation with Iraqi Kurdistan constitutes a threat to Turkey’s territorial integrity.

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Prospects for Turkey-U.S. Relations in the Context of the Syrian Civil War

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Turkey hopes for an improvement in its relations with the United States during Donald Trump’s presidency. The intensive political dialogue between the two allies suggests that the U.S. also wishes for that. However, their different approaches to the Syrian civil war may be a serious obstacle to reach that aim. A lack of understanding on that issue may induce Turkey’s actions, which would complicate the fight against the Islamic State. In the longer-term perspective, it may also strengthen anti-Western sentiments in Turkey and weaken the country’s engagement in NATO.

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Strengthening Deterrence in the Black Sea Region

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Russia’s development of its offensive capabilities in the Black Sea region could pose a threat to NATO. Yet Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey each have different perceptions of the threat, making it difficult for the Alliance to strengthen deterrence policy in the regional dimension. Although NATO is gradually adjusting its forces in response to the new strategic situation, the credibility of deterrence depends on the rotational presence of U.S. troops.

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New Phase in Russia’s Relations with Iran: Not Only Syria, Not Only Opportunism

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The final nuclear deal between the P5+1 and Iran has not resulted in worsening relations or a renewal of the historical rivalry between Moscow and Tehran. Russia and Iran have common interests in and outside Syria, namely strengthening the areas of bilateral diplomatic, military and economic cooperation. The visit by Russia’s president to Iran and his participation in the Gas Exporting Countries Forum in Tehran on 23 November 2015, suggest a new phase in Russia’s relations with Iran, which, though, might have a negative impact on the interests of the West, Turkey and Arab countries.

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Troublesome guests. Turkey’s plans regarding the Syrian refugee issue

Author(s): Mateusz Chudziak,Mariusz Marszewski / Language(s): English

The presence of Syrian refugees is putting increasing strain on Turkey. Since the migration agreement was signed with the EU in March 2016, the number of refugees in Turkey has risen from more than 2.7 million to more than 3.6 million. The growing anti-Syrian sentiment among the public poses a threat to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Faced with the prospect of a new wave of refugees from the Syrian province of Idlib, Ankara is determined and prepared to take radical measures to reduce the danger the migration issue presents for the government. The most important measure taken is the preparations being made to set up a buffer zone in northern Syria. This would serve as a location for returning at least a portion of the Syrians from Turkey, as well as a destination for potential new refugees from Idlib. This will be a difficult undertaking, even in view of the White House’s announcement of withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria. This makes it even more important for Ankara to seek political and financial support in the EU for its actions. If the West does not get on board for the buffer zone project or accept requests to revisit current cooperation with regard to migration, Turkey might resort to lapses in control of illegal people’s movement, or even stimulate it, which could open a new chapter in the migration crisis in Europe.

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Kłopotliwi goście. Tureckie plany rozwiązania kwestii uchodźców syryjskich

Author(s): Mateusz Chudziak,Mariusz Marszewski / Language(s): Polish

Dla Turcji obecność uchodźców syryjskich staje się coraz większym obciążeniem. Od podpisania umowy migracyjnej z Unią Europejską w marcu 2016 r. ich liczba w Turcji wzrosła z ponad 2,7 mln do ponad 3,6 mln. Coraz silniejsze nastroje antysyryjskie w społeczeństwie zagrażają rządzącej Partii Sprawiedliwości i Rozwoju (AKP). W obliczu groźby napływu nowej fali uchodźców z syryjskiego regionu Idlibu Ankara jest zdeterminowana i gotowa do radykalnych posunięć w celu zredukowania zagrożeń dla obozu władzy generowanych przez kwestię migracyjną. Najważniejszym z podjętych działań są przygotowania do stworzenia w północnej Syrii strefy bezpieczeństwa, do której miałaby zostać odesłana przynajmniej część Syryjczyków z Turcji i do której trafialiby potencjalni nowi uchodźcy z Idlibu. Realizacja tego projektu, nawet po ogłoszeniu przez Biały Dom wycofania z północnej Syrii wojsk amerykańskich, będzie bardzo trudna. Tym bardziej Ankara zabiega więc o wsparcie polityczne i finansowe dla tych działań w UE. W przypadku braku akceptacji Zachodu tak dla projektu strefy bezpieczeństwa, jak i dla żądań rewizji dotychczasowej współpracy migracyjnej, Turcja może posunąć się do zaniechań w kontroli nad przepływami ludności lub wręcz do ich stymulacji, co grozi nową odsłoną kryzysu migracyjnego w Europie.

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The S-400 for Turkey. The crisis in Turkish-American relations escalates

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota,Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English

In late May and early June 2019, the contract for Turkey’s purchase of the Russian-made missile launchers which make up the S-400 long-range anti-aircraft missile system entered the final stage of its implementation. This has been confirmed by unequivocal statements from the Turkish leadership, the fact that the first group of servicemen (system operators) have undergone training in Russia, and the announced arrival in Turkey of the Russian technical personnel responsible for the system’s assembly. The first S-400 launchers are likely to be dispatched to Turkey as early as July (around six months sooner than the planned supply date). At the same time the US, which has blocked Turkey’s attempts to purchase anti-aircraft missile systems from Russia and China for years, is stepping up its pressure on Turkey; for example, it has announced that the unprecedented sanctions package prepared last year will be imposed if the Russian-Turkish deal is finalised. The crisis around the S-400 is a manifestation of the deep crisis in Turkish-American relations that has been mounting for several years. More broadly speaking, it is an element of the crisis in the relationship between Turkey and the West, and de facto amounts to a major aggravation of the situation. The absence of will to make concessions on both sides makes any compromise between Ankara and Washington unlikely. At stake are the cohesion of NATO, the present and future nature of the US’s leading role, and Turkey’s place in its relations with the West and Russia. To some degree, all this affects the position of Russia, which itself is interested in undermining the positions of NATO and the US.

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S-400 dla Turcji. Eskalacja kryzysu w stosunkach turecko-amerykańskich

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota,Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): Polish

Na przełomie maja i czerwca w finałowe stadium realizacji wszedł kontrakt na zakup przez Turcję rosyjskich zestawów rakietowych obrony powietrznej dalekiego zasięgu S-400. Potwierdzają to zarówno zdecydowane deklaracje władz tureckich, jak też przeszkolenie w Rosji pierwszej grupy wojskowych (operatorzy systemu) i zapowiedź przyjazdu do Turcji rosyjskiego personelu technicznego odpowiedzialnego za montaż. Pierwsze zestawy S-400 mogą trafić do Turcji już w lipcu (przyspieszenie realizacji o około pół roku). Jednocześnie USA – które od lat blokowały tureckie próby zakupu systemów obrony powietrznej w Rosji i Chinach – eskalują presję na Turcję, w tym zapowiadają uruchomienie bezprecedensowych sankcji przygotowanych w ostatnim roku na wypadek realizacji kontraktu rosyjsko-tureckiego. Spór wokół S-400 jest przejawem narastającego od lat głębokiego kryzysu w stosunkach turecko-amerykańskich, a szerzej turecko-zachodnich i de facto oznacza jego istotne pogłębienie. Obustronny brak woli do ustępstw sprawia, że osiągnięcie kompromisu między Ankarą i Waszyngtonem należy uznać za mało prawdopodobne. Stawką są spójność NATO, obecny i przyszły charakter przywództwa USA i miejsce Turcji w relacjach z Zachodem i Rosją – tym samym pozycja Rosji zainteresowanej osłabieniem NATO i USA.

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№164: The Bucharest 9: Delivering on the Promise to Become the Voice of the Eastern Flank

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski,Veronika Jóźwiak,Łukasz Ogrodnik,Jakub Pieńkowski,Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

The Bucharest 9 (B9), a group composed of NATO’s easternmost members, has quickly earned clout as the voice of states whose security is the most undermined by the increasingly provocative Russian rhetoric and force posture and of the region that has become the focus of the Alliance’s response to this threat. Indeed, the potential of the B9 to shape the NATO agenda is significant, not least because most of its countries present a rigid commitment to common defence by taking on an increased burden in NATO by increasing defence expenditures and investing in new capabilities. Yet, the B9 also faces limits to its effectiveness because of its participating states’ differing threat perceptions, uneven commitments to beefing-up national defence capabilities, and the potential volatility of their respective military modernisation and transformation plans. More cooperation within the B9 framework, both political and military, could alleviate these problems and help make it the real voice of the Eastern Flank.

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№64: Norwegian and Polish Security Sector Reform Experiences from Afghanistan

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

In the coming decade, NATO and EU security is likely to be challenged by the ongoing conflicts and potential instability in different parts of Eastern Europe, the Balkans, the Middle East and North Africa. Both organisations are capable of supporting stability through different forms of cooperation with their partners but they could improve their impact significantly by closer collaboration. One of the most promising platforms for such a unity of effort could be Security Sector Reform (SSR)—a vital measure for building sustainable peace. Both NATO and the EU could use the experience of Norway, a NATO member, and Poland, a member of both the EU and NATO and a country that contributed significant military and civilian resources to the stability and development of Afghanistan between 2001 and 2014. Although the precise results of the SSR process in Afghanistan remain contested, the lessons hard learnt by both countries should be regarded as a noteworthy asset, not least when it comes to building closer cooperation between Poland and Norway during future SSR missions.

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№63: European Energy Security in the Wake of the Russia–Ukraine Crisis

Author(s): Jakub M. Godzimirski / Language(s): English

Russia’s confrontational approach towards Ukraine and the West has made energy security bells ring in many European capitals and in Brussels. This is perfectly understandable because Russia is the most important external supplier of energy to the EU, and Ukraine is the country through which more than 50 per cent of Russian gas destined for the EU is shipped. The EU learnt earlier, in 2006 and 2009, how tensions in gas relations between Russia and Ukraine may influence the situation on the European gas market. This time, however, the EU is on course to change its energy policy and relations with Russia, in order to enhance its security and limit the possibility of energy blackmail.

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№51: Careful What You Wish For: Nuclear Reductions and Conventional Deterrence in Europe after Crimea

Author(s): Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English

As NATO contemplates changes in its deterrence posture amid Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, questions regarding the relationship between the Alliance’s nuclear and conventional dimensions have gained importance. Some experts propose that the Allies should spend their scarce funds on conventional instruments of deterrence rather than on the U.S. nuclear weapons based in Europe. Still, the suggested shift of emphasis from nuclear to conventional would not be that easy to implement. Even with U.S. nuclear weapons removed from Europe, strengthening conventional deterrence in parallel could result in Russia increasing its reliance on its own nuclear weapons and bringing them closer to Alliance territory, further destabilising European security. Therefore, NATO should avoid making radical changes in its nuclear posture and concentrate on a calibrated beef-up of its nonnuclear presence along the eastern flank.

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№46: Split Three Ways on Ukraine: Turkey in a Changing Regional Order

Author(s): Pinar Elman / Language(s): English

With its low-level involvement in response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Ankara repeated its customary formula of refraining from disrupting relations with Moscow, but also sought to maximise the benefits from its position, in order to recover its declining power. Yet this is not a voluntary strategy, so much as an effort by Turkey to make the best of a bad hand. The crisis between Russia and the West affects Turkey’s security concerns, economic interests and wider domestic and foreign policy ambitions. Although non-involvement has so far carried few direct costs, Turkey needs to leverage its low-profile position, not least to ensure NATO solidarity, and indeed might soften its position in internal NATO debates. And yet this might in turn create a new conflict of interests: Turkey needs to maintain its soft power capacities, not least in order to hook into the EU, while the EU needs to deepen Turkey’s integration in order to develop a cohesive answer to the new circumstances.

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№5: Syria-Israel Talks: High Stakes and Low Expectations

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Following more than a year of behind-the-scenes contacts, on May 21, both Syria and Israel as well as their facilitator Turkey made an identically worded announcement of the resumption of indirect talks between the conflicted parties. Syria, a key actor in major regional conflicts, and Israel, the greatest military power in the Middle East, did not suddenly decide to make peace. Having calculated all pros and cons, they came to the conclusion that indirect talks are what would best serve each of their interests, both internally and internationally. It was pragmatism and cold calculation, as usual. The same guiding principle applies to the continuation and results of the talks. Ultimately, Syria will be interested in sustaining this process as long as there are prospects for American involvement, whereas Israel will seek a more cooperative Syrian role in the region. It remains to be seen whether each party’s decision is of a strategic or a tactical character, but it nevertheless marks a conspicuous change in each country’s foreign policy. For the most part these changes are driven by the new dynamics in the Middle East: a reshuffling of alliances, a relocation of focal points and a change of tactics. The indirect talks require the EU’s participation in order to keep the momentum going until the new American administration decides on the merits of its direct engagement in brokering peace.

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The Great Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia: The Conflict on the Nile Close to Resolution

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

The dam on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia will be the largest in Africa, and one of the world’s largest hydropower installations. Egypt has been protesting against its creation since 2011, fearing that it would run out of water for its population and agriculture after the construction of the dam. Now, close to the start of operations to fill the dam, the parties to the dispute are close to concluding an agreement decreasing the risk of conflict.

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Tama Wielkiego Odrodzenia w Etiopii – konflikt o Nil bliski rozwiązania

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): Polish

Budowana w Etiopii tama na Nilu Błękitnym – głównym dopływie Nilu – będzie największą w Afryce i jedną z największych na świecie instalacji hydroenergetycznych. Przeciwko jej powstaniu od 2011 r. protestuje Egipt, obawiając się, że w wyniku budowy zabraknie mu wody pitnej i na potrzeby rolnictwa. W przeddzień uruchomienia tamy strony sporu są bliskie zawarcia porozumienia, które oddali ryzyko konfliktu.

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The Significance of Russia’s Militarisation of Crimea

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

After it annexed Crimea in 2014, Russia began intensive militarisation of the peninsula to achieve military domination of the Black Sea Basin. This poses a growing challenge to Ukraine and NATO countries in the region. However, the lack of a common position among the Black Sea members of NATO concerning the militarisation of Crimea makes it difficult to pursue a policy of deterring Russia.

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Znaczenie i konsekwencje militaryzacji Krymu przez Rosję

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): Polish

Po aneksji Krymu Federacja Rosyjska rozpoczęła jego intensywną militaryzację i osiągnęła dominację wojskową w basenie Morza Czarnego. Rosnąca obecność sił FR na półwyspie stanowi coraz większe wyzwanie dla Ukrainy i państw NATO w regionie. Brak wspólnego stanowiska czarnomorskich członków NATO w sprawie militaryzacji Krymu nie sprzyja jednak prowadzeniu polityki odstraszania Rosji.

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Kierunki zmian w polityce zagranicznej Meksyku

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): Polish

Lewicowy rząd prezydenta Andrésa Manuela Lópeza Obradora chce uczynić z Meksyku głównego promotora współpracy i dialogu oraz mediatora w konfliktach w Ameryce Łacińskiej. W tym celu ostentacyjnie sprzeciwia się interwencjonistycznej polityce zagranicznej. Rozbieżności w regionie w sprawie Wenezueli, problem migracji środkowoamerykańskich do USA oraz związana z nim konfrontacyjna polityka administracji Donalda Trumpa wobec Meksyku to najważniejsze wyzwania w realizacji tej koncepcji. Spodziewane zacieśnienie współpracy UE z Meksykiem będzie sprzyjać rozwojowi współpracy polsko-meksykańskiej.

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