Still Awake-The Beginnings of Arab Democratic Change

Author(s): / Language(s): English

We are pleased to announce the release of the joint PISM - FIIA report: Still Awake: The Beginnings of Arab Democratic Change, edited by Timo Behr (FIIA) and Patrycja Sasnal (PISM). With the deluge of focused policy analyses and daily news from the Middle East, the report attempts to look at the changes in the Arab world in a long-term and clearly structured perspective along with unorthodox conclusions. It examines five cases of political transition in the Arab world—Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Syria and Yemen—and summarizes the events so far and provides country-by-country timelines. Another distinct aspect of the report is that it has been produced by two major think tanks from European countries that do not have vital interests in the Middle East: Poland and Finland. Apart from the chapters authored by the editors it also features contributions from Hanna Ebeid (ACPSS, Egypt), Sylvia Colombo (IAI, Italy) and two Polish diplomats, Stanisław Guliński and Jakub Sławek.

PISM Report on the Common Security and Defence Policy

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Israel and the Kurdish Question

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Relations with the Kurds are an important element of Israeli foreign policy in the Middle East. It particularly applies to Israel’s relations with Iraqi Kurds, who are considered important regional allies. Israel is the only state in the region that openly endorsed the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) independence referendum and perceives the establishment of a Kurdish state as a chance to strengthen Israel’s position in the Middle East. Israeli policy towards the Kurds remains closely linked to relations between Israel and Turkey and Iran.

Turkey’s New Anti-PKK Strategy: Consequences and Feasibility

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

The Turkish government, empowered further by the state of emergency, adopted a new strategy in its fight with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The declared goal is the total liquidation of the PKK. It will contribute to deepening political polarisation at home while in the regional dimension it may lead to greater Turkish involvement in Iraq and Syria. It is also possible that the strategy will intensify the tension between Turkey and its Western allies. Both the situation in Turkey and in the region make the achievement of the Turkish politicians’ goal dubious.

China-South Korea Relations: An Attempt to Break the Deadlock

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

The South Korean president’s visit to China (13–16 December) sprung from a mutual willingness to improve bilateral relations. China opposes the deployment of the U.S. THAAD missile-defence system, an issue that remains a sticking point in Sino-South Korea ties. Their respective North Korea policy also has contributed to the deteriorating bilateral relations. The inability to resolve that issue may lead to diplomatic engagement of countries outside the region, including Poland, to try to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

№163: Putting Georgia on the 2018 NATO Summit Agenda

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Russia’s annexation of Crimea triggered a shift in NATO’s policy towards Georgia. NATO moved from mainly political support for Georgia’s NATO membership aspirations to enhanced practical military cooperation. Although it might be more difficult for Russia to coerce its small neighbour, the lack of visible progress on the path to NATO membership may weaken Georgian morale and lead to a reversal of democratic gains. Hence, it is important that during the 2018 NATO Summit in Brussels the Allies offer additional support to help Georgia increase its resilience.

№166: How Russian Violations of the 1997 Founding Act Influence NATO-Russia Relations

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Artur Kacprzyk,Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

The NATO-Russia Founding Act adopted in 1997 reflected the consensus within the Alliance that new security architecture in Europe should be based on three pillars: enlargement of transformed NATO, European integration and partnership with Russia. Self-limitation on the stationing and deployment of troops in the territories of new NATO members was conditioned upon Russia’s observance of the rule-based order. After the annexation of Crimea, the Allies decided to respect the spirit of the Founding Act to limit the risk of escalation and defend the security system Russia is interested in derailing. The Allies, however, should adopt a less dogmatic approach to NRFA, which would offer additional flexibility in strengthening NATO’s cohesion and influencing Russian calculations.

№170: High Representative Federica Mogherini: Her Role and Performance in the EU Neighbourhood

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Federica Mogherini, the EU’s top diplomat, has strengthened coordination over EU external affairs but has not managed to make a significant impact in Europe’s closest neighbourhood. She succeeded in the speedy launch of the EU naval operation in the Mediterranean and the development of partnerships with several Sub-Saharan countries concerning migration, but in the case of the conflicts in Libya and Syria, the EU remained dependent on UN-led mediation. In relations with the eastern neighbourhood, Mogherini was side-lined by the Member States, which did not perceive her as an honest broker on Russian affairs. The next High Representative should make improvements in these areas while also following Mogherini’s path of close cooperation with the European Commission and other stakeholders.

№58: China’s Evolving Stance on Afghanistan: Towards More Robust Diplomacy with “Chinese Characteristics”

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar / Language(s): English

On the eve of the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan, China is modifying its so-far lukewarm policy towards this country. The potential for a security vacuum after 2014 has raised China’s concerns about the situation in Afghanistan and its effects on the region, including possible terrorist attacks, an influx of militants, inter-ethnic fights, cross-border crime and more, all of which may have a negative impact on China’s security and domestic stability. These possible threats have forced the PRC to adopt a more proactive approach towards Afghanistan. The scope of tools is wide, and include the appointment of China’s first special envoy to Afghanistan, and a rising level of Chinese engagement in various international mechanisms focused on regional security. It creates a chance for the EU, to cooperate with Beijing on security issues.

№56: NATO Narrows Military Gap on Its Eastern Flank

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

The decisions taken during the NATO summit in Wales will partially fill the security gaps on NATO’s eastern flank. The alliance will be better prepared for a number of traditional and asymmetric threats, emanating from Russia, against its members. However, the alliance has no answer for the strategic change caused by annexation of Crimea and possible dismemberment of the rest of Ukraine. NATO will also remain vulnerable to attempts to undermine its credibility—a path Russia may embark upon in pursuit of its broader strategic goals.

№27: The Perseverance of the Crisis in Mali

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

After yet another Tuareg rebellion, followed by a virtual takeover of the northern parts of the country by various terrorist organisations and a highly destabilising coup d’état, Mali finds itself engulfed in a protracted political, security and humanitarian crisis. The worrying series of events in Mali has brought the country to the attention of international actors, including the European Union (EU), which is concerned about the lack of stability and security in the Sahel, an area adjacent to the immediate EU neighbourhood. Unfortunately, the majority of the foreign ideas on how to address Mali’s crisis lack an enduring commitment to improve the situation on the ground. Unless the international proposals are in line with the UN Secretary General’s recommendations from 29 November 2012 and veer towards long-term solutions, Mali is likely to remain destabilised for the foreseeable future.

№26: Libya and Syria: Responsibility to Protect at a Crossroads

Author(s): Rafał Tarnogórski / Language(s): English

The Arab Spring, especially the developments in Libya and Syria, revealed the persistent problem of a lack of appropriate and legally acceptable measures the international community could use to intervene in specific countries where people die because of violent acts by the authorities there. Although Responsibility to Protect (R2P) is seen as a new idea, it can be regarded as a manifestation of a trend that has already begun to affect the present but will have a major impact in the future. When the intervention in Libya started, it seemed that the importance of R2P would grow and exert increasing influence on international relations. The real significance of the UN response to the Libyan crisis was that for the first time the implementation and representation in practice of the R2P concept became real. However, it is quite clear now that the current Syrian crisis can serve as a catalyst for discussion on the necessary conditions for a military intervention, thus either strengthening the underlying trend of R2P or blocking it for years.

№14: Libya: Too Hot to Handle

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

The rapidly evolving events around the crisis in Libya will be the first test of this kind for the European countries that lead diplomatic efforts against Colonel Muammar al-Qaddafi. France’s symbolic first strike in operation “Odyssey Dawn” was quickly followed by an American lead offensive. The American administration, deeply involved in Afghanistan and still effectively responsible for Iraq’s security, wanted to avert the impression that they were leading yet another military offensive against a mostly Muslim country. However, the crisis shows deep divisions within the international community, NATO, the EU and the arrayed coalition itself. It is a high-risk but also a possible high-gain type of operation although there is not enough evidence to suggest that Qaddafi has completely lost popular support or that the opposition speaks on behalf of the majority of Libyans. As the awakening wave is sweeping the Middle East, events in Libya set a precedent for other Arab countries and citizens, torn between their quest for dignity and reluctance to accept outside intervention.

№6: NATO after the Georgian Conflict: A New Course or Business as Usual?

Author(s): Marek Madej / Language(s): English

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, unlike the European Union, could not have played a mediating role in the Russian-Georgian conflict. This was primarily dictated by the position of Russia, which was opposed to NATO involvement in the region and which saw NATO as a de facto party to the conflict. Georgia, on the other hand, has long expected an unequivocal decision by the Alliance concerning its Atlantic aspirations and membership, not to mention NATO’s immediate support for its position in the conflict. This placed NATO in an exceptionally delicate situation as a mediator, especially if one considers the Alliance’s present members’ diverging views on the question of Georgia’s NATO membership and their doubts and differing assessments of the causes of the conflict and where to lay the blame for its outbreak.

№2: ISAF Operation in Afghanistan and the Future of NATO – Time for Change

Author(s): Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English

It is often stated that the mission in Afghanistan cannot be won using only military means. It can surely be lost, however, due to a failure of military performance by NATO and due to unrealistic operation goals. The Alliance currently faces two major challenges. The first has to do with the reluctance of some of the Allies to commit troops to counter-insurgency tasks. Without a major change in the Afghan policies of Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Greece, NATO will face a series of ‘blackmail crises’, when countries engaged in the south and east of the country threaten to withdraw their forces unless they are replaced or given additional support. It seems certain that NATO is going to manage successfully its first blackmail crisis, caused by Canada’s justifiable demand for an additional 1,000 troops for Kandahar (it appears that support has been offered by the United States, France and Poland). However, the ability to placate the displeased Allies on an ad hoc basis is limited, and a more fundamental change of policy is necessary.

Foreign Military Presence in Iraq in Light of the Iran-U.S. Rivalry

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Iraq remains an area of rivalry between the U.S. and Iran. The latest example was the assassination of Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad by the U.S. in January. The Iraqi parliament then demanded the withdrawal of all foreign military troops. However, the fear of the resurgence of the so-called Islamic State (ISIS) and continued protests against Iranian influence, ongoing since October 2019, may lead the Iraqi authorities to alter their position. An alternative option to request a NATO mission to take over some of the activities of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS may be a good solution.

Prospects for a Revival of ISIS

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

The terrorist group calling itself Islamic State (ISIS), after losing most of the territory it had overrun, has reformulated its strategy, basing it now on asymmetrical terrorist and insurgent operations. ISIS’s priority in Syria and Iraq is to use the destabilisation within these countries to free fighters and sympathisers from prisons and use them to create organised cells. The U.S. limiting troops in northern Syria and the escalating rivalry with Iran over Iraq is weakening the effectiveness of the international anti-terrorist coalition and facilitates the rebuilding of ISIS cells.

Perspektywy odrodzenia tzw. Państwa Islamskiego

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): Polish

Tzw. Państwo Islamskie (PI) po utracie terytorium przeformułowało swoją strategię, której podstawą stały się działania asymetryczne – terrorystyczne i partyzanckie. Priorytetem PI w Syrii i Iraku jest wykorzystanie wewnętrznej destabilizacji tych państw, uwolnienie zwolenników organizacji i zasilenie przez nich jej komórek. Ograniczenie obecności wojsk USA w północnej Syrii oraz eskalacja rywalizacji między USA i Iranem na terenie Iraku osłabiają skuteczność działań międzynarodowej koalicji antyterrorystycznej oraz ułatwiają reorganizację struktur komórkom PI.

Security Challenges in Relations between Poland and Belarus

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

The collapse of the security system in Europe as a result of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has particularly affected Belarus. The country fears the growing tensions between Russia and NATO that have been exacerbated, among others, by the termination of the INF regime and the strengthening of both the Alliance’s Eastern Flank and Russia’s Western Military District. Although Poland and Belarus have partly different security interests that pose a challenge in bilateral relations, the countries have the potential to cooperate in this sphere.

Wyzwania bezpieczeństwa w relacjach Polski i Białorusi

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): Polish

Załamanie się dotychczas funkcjonującego systemu bezpieczeństwa w Europie, spowodowane agresją Rosji na Ukrainę, w szczególny sposób dotknęło Białoruś. Państwo to obawia się rosnących napięć w relacjach rosyjsko-natowskich wynikających m.in. z upadku reżimu INF, wzmacniania wschodniej flanki Sojuszu i Zachodniego Okręgu Wojskowego FR. Choć częściowo odmienne interesy bezpieczeństwa stanowią wyzwanie w relacjach polsko-białoruskich, oba państwa mają potencjał współpracy w tej sferze.