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Armenia and Azerbaijan have concluded a truce ending the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, under the auspices of Russia. The agreement constitutes Armenia’s capitulation and provides for the division of the disputed territory on the terms of the victorious Azerbaijani side. This is a diplomatic success for Russia, which forced both sides of the conflict to stop fighting and accept the peace plan.
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The Normandy Format (Ukraine, Russia, Germany, France) summit, held in Paris on 9 December for the first time since 2016, did not bring any breakthrough in the negotiations regarding settling the situation in Donbas. The Russian authorities still lack the political will necessary to end the conflict.
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Given the rising death toll in Eastern Ukraine, reports of a ceasefire deal in Minsk are a very welcome development. However, rather than merely halting the war, the EU, Ukraine and Russia need to create a lasting peace. Calls for the West to arm Ukraine – a misguided attempt to level the killing field – has overshadowed previous proposals from EU leaders to create a free trade area with Russia in the long-term. However, this is the approach that offers the greatest hope for a long-term solution that can transform the conflict, EU-Russia relations and even Russia itself. It would benefit all concerned – apart from the Putin regime – but it faces many obstacles, not least within the EU itself. The EU needs to assuage the concerns that some of its member states have about engaging with Russia and with the Putin regime. If this can be done, the EU can also begin to establish a foreign policy that adheres to its values and perhaps even begin to address its own internal crisis of confidence.
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A global alternative to the former INF Treaty is a feasible solution to the current crisis of the arms control regime that can significantly improve regional stability in Asia. It will not harm vital interests of its signatories provided it will not limit ground-launched delivery vehicles with a range greater than 3,000 km and existing TELs. Given the shifting security environment in Europe, the EU nations should join the German-led development and procurement of an integrated air and missile defence system. The deterrence dynamics also warrant a French-led joint European development and procurement of air-launched cruise missiles with a range greater than 2,000 km.
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One of the criticisms that has been leveled at the Iran nuclear agreement officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) reached with the world powers in 2015 is that it failed to address Iran’s ballistic missiles. The ballistic missile programme provides the means for nuclear delivery should Iran decide to acquire nuclear weapons. Iran’s missile proliferation is particularly destabilizing for the region with detrimental knock-on consequences for Europe. Europe should maintain its pressure on Iran to stop testing missiles that exceed the limits of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and transferring missiles to regional proxies. Where Iran continues with its provocations, the EU should impose sanctions on Iranian and third-party organizations involved in the missile programme, reflecting actions it has taken to counter Iran’s human rights abuses. The E3 countries (Britain, France and Germany) should exert their influence to reinforce the EU’s efforts to strengthen coordination with the United States in using diplomatic channels with countries supporting Iran, such as Russia and China, to foster a more robust international response to the missile threat. The EU should also play a leading role in formalizing constraints on the range of Iran’s missiles. In the short-term, such an agreement would seek to prevent Iran from developing missiles that could strike Europe, with the ultimate objective of broadening restrictions on Iran’s missiles as part of a wider regional arrangement.
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The normalization agreements, known as the Abraham Accords, that were signed between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan in 2020, have the potential to strengthen economic integration while also fostering wider regional security partnerships. The deepening of regional ties could pave the way for broader cooperation propelling joint efforts in addressing issues such as energy security and climate change. The normalization agreements present new opportunities for cooperation not only for the region but also beyond it, including for the European Union. Yet the Abraham Accords are facing a number of challenges which could constrain the expansion of the normalization process. There is a disparity in how the political elites and the broader Arab public view the Abraham Accords. Furthermore, the new Israeli government led by prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu includes several members that hold extreme positions on issues such as the Palestinian question and the status of holy sites in Jerusalem. The new government is liable to take actions that could heighten regional tensions and damage the normalization process. The Abraham Accords are popular in Israel. The UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan and other countries in the region have a unique opportunity to influence the new Netanyahu government and the wider Israeli public by linking progress on normalization to Israel stopping harmful policies that damage the long-term prospects of peace with the Palestinians. The EU has expressed measured support for the Abraham Accords, but it should actively encourage these states and potential new signatories to the accords to condition progress on Israel stopping counter-productive policies which could lead to a serious escalation in the region.
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The Russian war in Ukraine has revealed the fragilities of the global food system. For European countries, this is both a domestic and an international issue. At the domestic level, the shortage of grains from the Black Sea region has contributed to inflation. At the international level, it threatens the stability of several countries in the Southern neighborhood and offers an opportunity for Russia to strengthen its soft power. In a world more fragmented and impacted by the consequences of climate change, it is vital to develop a more resilient food system. In the shorter term, European countries should strengthen their ability to produce fertilizers, and pursue their efforts to allow the transit of Ukrainian grains to the Middle East and Africa. In the longer term, they should include the Global South in the transition toward a green economy.
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The resilience thinking in the Czech Republic and Norway has been significantly influenced by the membership of both countries in NATO; however, a closer inspection reveals some significant differences between them and opens a space for their mutual learning. Norway should pay attention to which aspects of national security resilience are strengthened by the membership in the EU as well as the longer debate on the resilience to disinformation in the Czech Republic. The Czech Republic could learn from the Norwegian thinking about the coordination of civil and military efforts in addressing security and military threats.
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Non-enlargement and delayed enlargement are active choices by the EU with concrete consequences. Maintaining the status quo is not an option. Enlargement processes are triggered by the application of a potential member state, and EU responses in the field encourage or discourage certain developments independently if we speak of the Western Balkans, Moldova, Georgia, or Ukraine. Progress with the enlargement agenda anchors countries into European structures and serves as a confirmation of their European choice. However, as examples from the Western Balkans show, there is a concrete risk that the EU might end up legitimising autocratic regimes in a bid for progress. The enlargement process must therefore not be decoupled from a clear meritocratic scrutiny. EU membership does not take place in a vacuum. As with previous enlargement rounds, the real security provider is NATO. The EU’s mutual defence clause is not a sufficient security guarantee. It is therefore difficult to conceive of a Ukrainian EU accession without NATO membership. After Ukraine’s accession, in particular the Ukraine army could be a substantial contribution to a European defence system. Other external developments might also contribute to the EU’s development of strategic autonomy. The nine accession countries would contribute with access to raw materials, including critical and strategic raw materials. For instance, Ukraine has a shared third in the world processing of the critical resource material scandium and has the second largest deposits of natural gas in Europe after Norway. The growing size of the EU’s market would enhance the so-called Brussels effect and increase the global relevance of the EU. The nine accession countries would increase the EU’s population from 447 to 513 million. The less developed economies of the countries, however, would be a challenge for the EU’s economic, social, and territorial cohesion. The time schedule for enlargement is crucial. Albeit it is never possible to guarantee a deadline year for enlargement, taking into account the conditionality-based process, setting a target year would be recommended to avoid overly optimistic assumptions in some candidate countries (e.g. Ukraine) as well as to clearly illuminate if EU member states are delaying the process.
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On Wednesday 9 October 2019, Turkey launched a cross-border operation in Northern Syria. Turkey justified its actions as a response to an ‘imminent terrorist threat’ from Kurdish-led forces. Its operation was directed at pushing back these groups from its border and creating a ‘safe zone’ in Syria where up to two million Syrian refugees can be resettled. This reflection aims to assess (i) whether the Turkish operation to establish the safe zone was lawful; and (ii) whether the resettlement of Syrian refugees in the safe zone is in conformity with international law.
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The official title of the New START Treaty is the Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for the further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms. The ten-year validity of the Treaty with expire on February 5, 2021, though there is the possibility of its extension for a further five years. The key question is whether both participating countries will agree with the mentioned extension. If not, more than 90% of the nuclear weapons in their possession (out of the total number of ca. 13,900 weapons) will not be subject to any arms-control limitation for the first time since 1972.
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The reflection deals with the current state of the nuclear arms control and disarmament process with a stressing on the role of the Biden administrationʼs security policy. The policy follows the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance (INSSG) of March 2021 till the summaries of the new relevant security documents, i.e. the National Defense Strategy (NDS) and the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), will be published early next year. The reflection deals also with the US-Russia strategic dialogue, the current development in the effort to reach the Korean Peninsulaʼs denuclearization and the restoration of the US participation in the so-called Iranian nuclear deal (JCPOA). The final part of the reflection pays attention to some of the main factors of the USʼs internal and international policy that could influence the implementation of the declared intentions of the above mentioned security documents.
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This reflection offers a concise analysis under national and international law of the cyber-operations carried out by Anonymous in the context of the ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine. It is highlighted that each one of the individuals acting as Anonymous is subject to the relevant national (cyber-criminal) law jurisdictions. Moreover, in the context of the war between Russia and Ukraine, they can be subject to the law of armed conflict. If their cyber-conduct amounts to “direct participation in hostilities”, they can even become targetable according to international humanitarian law. Also, when Anonymous directly participates in hostilities from a state that is not party to the armed conflict, the neutrality of non-belligerent countries can be challenged.
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Leitmotivem nedávného kolektivního výhledu Strategic Trends (2015), redigovaného Oliverem Thränertem a Martinem Zapfem z ETH Zürich, je krize normativního řádu světové politiky, tedy krize norem jednání – ne vždy dodržovaných, ale přesto sdílených. Tak či onak tato krize sehrává ústřední roli i v projekcích mezinárodního bezpečnostního prostředí předkládaných v scénáristické studii, kterou právě držíte v rukou. A byť je tato krize řádu často vnímána jako cosi vysoce abstraktního, nekonkrétního a neuchopitelného, její regionální efekty jsou jasně zřetelné: od „zelených mužíků“ zabírajících území svrchovaného státu ve východním sousedství NATO a EU až po protostátní fundamentalistické aktéry jako ISIL s ambicemi překreslit politickou mapu Blízkého východu a okolí.
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Precarious Conflict Trajectory - Russia and Ukraine are preparing for a spring offensive with higher levels of military involvement. Spill-over into the region has been avoided so far, despite several drone attacks on Russian bases in occupied Crimea and in western Russia as well as the bombing of Kerch Bridge that connects Crimea with Russia’s Taman peninsula in October 2022, one day after President Putin’s 70th birthday. It is not excluded that intensifying conflict or a costly prolonged stalemate can lead to escalation and actively involve NATO or one of the front-line states with Ukraine.
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The last period has been busy with world meetings none of which have or only peripherally involved Russia because of their malign intent on Ukraine. A distinct change from reporting about the Ukrainian conflict is the football World Cup, the 4- yearly event now being hosted by Qatar, an occasion which was previously hosted by Russia in 2018, and where Putin was frequently visible. The fact that he had annexed Crimea 4 years before had been ‘forgotten’ about and he took all the praise for a successful event. However, Russia has not qualified for the current Middle East held event. They will be sorely missed! The Qatari event is taking a significant amount of airtime, not just about football, but that is another story.
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Economic downturn; recession of plans and initiatives; systematically ignored calls for a fiscal and monetary justice for all; €-crisis; Brexit and irredentism in the UK, Spain, Belgium, France, Denmark and Italy; lasting instability in the Euro-Med theatre (debt crisis of the Europe’s south – countries scrutinized and ridiculed under the nickname PIGS, coupled with the failed states all over the MENA); terrorism; historic low with Moscow culminating in the unprecedented opened armed conflict of West with Russia on the territory of yet another Slavic useful idiot, ill-fated Ukraine, all this combined with a confrontational but in fact frightened and disoriented Washington administration; influx of predominantly Muslim refugees from Levant in numbers and configurations unprecedented since the WWII exoduses (with an institutionalized racism in the Western migration policy while giving to fleeing Ukrainians diametrically different treatment); consequential growth of far-right parties who – by peddling reductive messages and comparisons – are exploiting fears of otherness, that are now amplified with already urging health labour and social justice concerns; generational unemployment and sociocultural anxieties, in ricochet of sanctions; long-ago ‘prophesised’ than doctored health, post-C-19 and energy ‘crises’, oil anti-diplomacy, as well as the Sino-US trade wars, while rifting in dilemma to either letting Bolivarism or supporting Monroeism…
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Since its unprovoked military aggression against Ukraine, Russia has inundated the world with misinformation and disinformation in efforts to justify its military operations and to claim its strict observance of the rules of warfare. Unsurprisingly, many of these efforts have often been penetrated due to the poor and blatant construction exposed by the mainstream Western mass media that perhaps interact closely with the intelligence circles.
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The war in Ukraine, Putin’s war, is now over 100 days old and reaching a point of stalemate. One day the Russians have made small gains in the Donbas, the eastern border lands of Ukraine, and in the next day or so we hear that they have been stopped and pushed back. In the meantime, the promised more powerful armaments, with a bigger range, from Britain, the US and from some European countries, are coming on stream, albeit late and slowly, and these may, should push the Russians back. One hopes so that it is more than just talk. Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister is not at all pleased at this development of the west’s support for what maybe in a short time a member of the EU, and warns of an escalation of activities. Perhaps that is a risk Ukraine has to take in order to take back the lands lost.
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The aggression of Russia on the Ukraine is an event that will mark the future of Europe as well as the global international order. A week after the beginning of the aggression on the Ukraine by Putin’s regime, some of the aspects and characteristics of this military expedition are very obvious and noticeable, along with their international dimensions, reactions and parallels from history. The most important is the fact that a military operation, a war, is going on, what is without comparison in the modern European history after the end of the Cold War. The aggression and the consequent war present a ruthless, brutal and consciousness breach and neglect of a range of international legal, humanitarian and other rules that regulate relations between sovereign and independent states in international relations. Hence, the aggression is a military act, a precedence that has to be stopped and brought to a standstill, the international mediation and negotiation should be introduced, peace agreement has to be concluded and the responsible persons have to be brought to justice, processed for military crimes they did. European and world political, diplomatic, legal and military history have many tools at disposal for these actions. Here, also lessons learned from the recent past from the dissolution of former Yugoslavia, are highly useful for processing war criminals, as the International Court of Justice in the Hague can serve.
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