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The Black Sea’s Strategic Importance of the and NATO’s Role in Countering the Kremlin’s Military Domination

Author(s): Ioan CRĂCIUN / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The Black Sea region has become one of the key geopolitical spaces for the competition between Russia and the West on which the very future of Europe ultimately depends. The Kremlin wants to keep the Black Sea in its sphere of influence through a strategy of regional destabilisation based on a special military operation against Ukraine, the illegal annexation of new territories, historically considered to belong to Russia, and the strengthening of the military presence in these territories or the direct military threat to the states in the region in order to limit as much as possible the possibilities of their accession to the Euro-Atlantic structures. On the other hand, the West is trying to respond to Russia’s expansion with an advanced defence strategy in which the Black Sea occupies a central place. Thus, the Black Sea region, which has traditionally been treated as a less important area, acquires new strategic features becoming a much more militarised, unstable and contested region, a region that is in dire need of a new regional status quo in order to stabilise. Considering this state of facts, this article has as its main objective the geopolitical analysis of the Black Sea region, given that Russia has become the main destabilising factor in the region, as well as the identification of solutions to achieve regional stability based on the increasingly consistent involvement of the North Atlantic Alliance.

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The Battle of Kyiv – Aspects Regarding the Conduct of Military Operations at the Tactical Level

Author(s): Claudiu Valer NISTORESCU / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The military operations conducted on the territory of Ukraine during the conflict started by the Russian Federation on 24 February 2022 show that the chances for large-scale combat operations in Europe have significantly increased. Consequently, the way those operations are carried out must be carefully reconsidered. Adapting to the requirements of the modern battlefield requires rapid multi-domain integration of new technologies and modern weapons systems. Therefore, doctrinal changes are required. There is no doubt that the Battle of Kyiv is a valuable source of information for military leaders, regarding the conduct of military operations at each level. Therefore, a pertinent analysis in relation to the factors that have contributed to the battle’s outcome could be very helpful. The main objective of the analysis is to highlight lessons on the topic of planning and carrying out military operations at the tactical level. It emphasises both the determining factors for the failure of the Russian offensive and the features that gave the Ukrainian forces the upper hand, ensuring the successful defence operation. The research methodology is based on the qualitative evaluation of the available information, to enable an assessment of the battle from the combat functions perspective with the aim to identify possible gaps in Westernarmies’ way to carry out combat operations.

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Geopolitical Configurations on the Ponto-Baltic Isthmus in the Context of the Aggression in Ukraine

Author(s): Andreea-Amalia STANICA / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Starting the study from the theory of the Heartland, drawn up by Halford John Mackinder, according to which who rules Eastern Europe rules the world, we identify the geopolitical importance of the Ponto-Baltic isthmus. The region imaginarily bordered to the North by the Baltic Sea and to the South by the Black Sea has been a hotspot throughout history. Thus, the strategic importance of the Ponto-Baltic isthmus and the conflicting interests in the region are the current reasons for the confrontation between the Russian Federation and the West. The illegal aggression of the Russian state in Kyiv confirms the hypothesis that Moscow is the main threat to the security and territorial integrity of the states of the Ponto-Baltic region. In this respect, to become aware of the regional geopolitical realities, in the first part of the research both the geographical coordinates of the Ponto-Baltic isthmus and the historical coordinates stated at the national level will be outlined, in keeping with the writings of scholars such as Simion Mehedinți and Nicolae Iorga. Afterwards, the strategy of the Russian Federation in the region will be analysed, in relation to the permanent fuelling of conflicts on the territory of states that pursue their Euro-Atlanticvision. Romania’s role in the Ponto-Baltic region will also be identified, through its status of a regional pivot and a relevant actor in the process of consolidating NATO’s eastern flank. The research will be the result of the cross-use of quantitative and qualitative methodologies, for an in-depth approach to the subject under study.

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Evaluating the legal impact of EU economic sanctions on Russia from an EU business perspective

Author(s): Kieran Robert Spencer / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

In response to the 2022 escalation of Russia’s invasion into Ukraine, the European Union has implemented unprecedented sanctions targeting the Russian state, individuals supporting the war effort, and the Russian economy generally. These sanctions are unique in the history of the European Union, not only because of their political context but also because of their breadth and the novel legal instruments used. This paper will explore how these distinctive features might impact businesses working within the European Union.

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GRAND STRATEGY AND MILITARY IMPLICATIONS OF NEW RUSSIA’S MILITARY DOCTRINE IN 21ST CENTURY: GEOSTRATEGIC ASPECTS OF HYBRID WARFARE STRATEGY AGAINST GEORGIA AND UKRAINE

Author(s): Vakhtang MAISAIA / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

A paper reflects new dimensions of New Cold War geostrategic balance implications at pan-regional(European) and regional (Black Sea) levels that already has been transformed into classical hybrid warfare between the Russian Federation and NATO due to the Russia’s invasion into Ukraine. Currently adopted military doctrine of the Russian Federation envisages engagement into two military conflicts simultaneously and constructed its strategic operational framework founded on incorporation of three combat elements: military, non-military and information warfare measures and proper concepts. Hence, it means that Russia can beginwar-game scenarios at the same time against two neighboring nations as it occurs at time being against Ukraine and Georgia. At that respect, the incumbent Russian military leadership in aegis of so-called “GerasimovDoctrine” is promoting hybrid warfare as a key dominant grand strategy with relevant theater strategy and operational art elements (for instance, operational – strategic command HQ “South” and 5 Army Corp HQs). The military “muscle” could easily skew and twist European security environment that is much unprepared to the geostrategic challenge – Crimea occupation and annexation in 2014, war with Georgia in 2008, hybrid attack to Estonia in 2007 and very recently large-scale military intervention in Azov Sea and pending regional hegemony conditions in Caspian Basin. These military asymmetric challenges and risks deriving from the arms race derailed by the Russia’s incumbent authority, and security dilemma embroiled with by the elements of WMD are sufficient indications why the European security is plausible fragile against such challenges. From academic standpoint, the thesis deals in analyzing with the most dangerous threat targeting the European security architecture – asymmetric military challenge and realization of which is pursued in wagging hybrid war against Georgia and Ukraine. The new type of warfare is a probe stone perfected against these two post-Sovietnations indicates and poses real menace, mainly geostrategic origin, easily targeted NATO member-states, including Poland. The article predisposes reflection and understanding true meaning of so-called “GerasimovDoctrine” and the whole new version of Military Doctrine of Russia and how it is implemented at the stage. A shift transformation takes place in realms of contemporary century warfare doctrinal planning and the transformation has already implicated of identifying new type of warfare strategy – asymmetric war with representation of hybrid warfare that contributing in re-shaping a grand strategy that allows policymakers to steer through the uncertainties of a complex international security environment; Elaboration real content and new definition of “hybrid war” and its dual fold implications how to quell and deal with asymmetric military challenges and risks and how to cause the challenges on its matter. Moreover, it describes and review reformatting modality in planning and wagging war due to the military technology development that contributed to a far more complicated strategic environment for war than that of previous century. In that respect is to be identified new style of warfare – Urbanistic warfare presented in 2008 August Russia-Georgia war as well as in war in Ukraine (Mariupol battle) new definition of the warfare in general matter.

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PUTIN’S POLICY IN UKRAINE: A DESTRUCTIVE, UGLY, ATTRITION BASED WAR, FOUGHT AIMLESSLY, FOR THE SAKE OF WAR

Author(s): Iulian Chifu / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

It is a challenge to try to draw conclusions and find the characteristics of an ongoing crisis. Even more so when it is a large-scale war, like the one fought by Russia in Ukraine, a war already defined as a war of aggression of Russia in Ukraine, unprovoked, illegal and unjustified, an invasion of Russia in Ukraine aimed at conquering new territories for Moscow to annex. But, after three months of war, some basic arguments are already in place and it is worth assessing the regularities of this war and its particularities in a way that allows us to predict the evolution of this war. And if no two wars are alike, comparisons give us hints about previous behaviors and perspectives of evolution. In this case, the 7 districts buffer zone in Nagorno Karabakh could give us a hint on the way the destruction of Eastern Ukraine will be used in the future by Russia to deny any the presence of weapons close to its borders.

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THE ROLE OF UKRAINIAN SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES WITHIN THE WAR IN UKRAINE

Author(s): Adrian-Corneliu DIEANU / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The analysis of Ukrainian special operations forces’ capabilities is an important endeavor in studying the development of the war from Ukraine – as a consequence of the Russian Army invasion, in February 24, 2022. The actions of the Ukrainian elite military forces contributed to the failure of the initial Russian military planners’ strategic aims. National Ukrainian Army initiated the preparations to defend against an invasion force of the Russian Federation Armed Forces of 200,000 militaries, grouped in tactical units around the Ukrainian borders. Special operations Ukrainian forces had the significant role of stopping Moscow’s objectives established at the beginning of the Russian invasion and of obtaining these remarkable results within the fights against the Russian army’s units; they stood out, especially within the planned action of defeating the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv. The role of Ukrainian special operations forces within the war in Ukraine consisted in bold actions behind the adversaries’ lines, resulting in destroying certain command points and in eliminating several important commanders from the command chain of the Russian Federation invasion forces. Ukrainian special operations forces engaged efficiently the fight with the Russian elite forces that landed in the neighborhood of Kyiv and also blocked the military actions that intending to get the control over certain strategic objectives.Interrupting the logistic flow of the Russian Armed Forces, destroying the Russian logistic centers from Ukrainian and Russian territory, as well as organizing resistance cells for guerrilla fight within the Ukrainian territories occupied by the Russians are among the successful missions of the Ukrainian special operations forces. The endeavor of the current article is to analyze the Ukrainian special operations force’ transformation process since 2014 – an evolution from a structure specific for the „Spetsnaz” and Soviet Union (U.R.S.S) to the current capabilities and modern endowment, driven upon a development & training program, commonly developed with special forces units from NATO armies.

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NATO AND EU STRATEGIC REVISION. CONTEXTUAL FACTORS BEFORE AND AFTER THE RUSSIAN – UKRAINIAN WAR

Author(s): Cristina Bogzeanu / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The present paper approaches the significant contextual aspects in which 2022 NATO and EU strategic revision process is taking place. The study premises that Russian unjustified military aggression on Ukraine and the subsequent security challenges for the European security environment are only the most recent, visible, and implicitly, attention catching ones, and that the background of the current strategic revision of both NATO and the EU is wider and marked by the succession of internal and external crises in the last decade. However, despite the need to approach all these challenges, Russian invasion of Ukraine has a key role in these organizations’ strategic revision, as it can be considered a wake-up call, an undeniable proof that both NATO and EU have to adapt their role in the regional and international security context. Through this rather descriptive approach, this paper is meant to bring to attention the complexity of the current international and regional context, shaping NATO and EU strategic revision. Also, we will argue that one of the main challenges that are to come after this revision will consist in dealing with NATO-EU relation in the best possible manner. In order to do so, the argumentation will be built departing from the general regional context, taking in consideration both internal and external trends, continuing with the origins and signification of NATO and EU strategic revision. This will be the basis on which we intend to reveal some of the challenges of NATO-EU relation and how this relation was impacted by the unjustified Russian military aggression on Ukraine. The argumentation capitalizes recent events with relevance for NATO and EU approach to security and is built on inputs from the level of population perception on NATO and EU, as well as from national foreign politics and trends specific to the organizations themselves. Given that this paper was written before NATO actually published its 2022 Strategic Concept, the author will mostly capitalize on EU’ s official documents and, implicitly, on EU’ s perspective. The study concludes that despite the highly conflict-prone context, there is also a favourable ground not only for the EU to progress in its military dimension but also for doing this in full coordination with NATO, avoiding duplications.

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Küresel Piyasalarda Yaşanan Resesyon ve Gelişmiş Ülke Merkez Bankalarının Uyguladıkları Faiz Politikaları

Author(s): Nermin Güney,Sertaç Hopoğlu / Language(s): Turkish Publication Year: 0

The developments around the world in the last few years have brought the global economy face to face with recession-like conditions. The slowdown in production in the world as a result of the slowdown in the Chinese economy, the new wave of protectionism experienced by raising mutual tariffs, which is called "trade wars", the pause experienced with the Covid-19 crisis, the disruptions in the supply chain and the precautionary policies implemented by the United States, the energy bottleneck created by the war between Russia and Ukraine caused a global slowdown and created an environment with a high risk of crisis. The deterioration in the national economies for two consecutive quarters is defined as recession, and as a result, a worldwide increase in unemployment and decrease in national incomes are observed. While Central Banks are looking for ways to get out of the crisis with the least damage by using monetary policy tools in times of crisis, they can directly determine interest rates by changing the money supply in the market. The most important reason for this is to take practical measures to prevent the crisis from spreading to the real sector. Policies implemented in such an environment are important in terms of determining the possible consequences of crises and the best examples that can be taken. The aim of this study is to investigate the recession in global markets and the interest policies implemented by central banks.

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Frequency Domain Causal Effects of Geopolitical Risk and Economic Uncertainty on Green Bond Market Around the Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Remzi Gök / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

We analyze causal effects of geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty indices on the green bond market, utilizing two causality tests, around the military conflict in Ukraine. Consistent with the existing literature, the results of Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and Breitung and Candelon (2006) in the static framework show no causal flows from geopolitical risks throughout the period, either before the war or during the war. Further, we find no evidence for both temporary and permanent causal impacts from the geopolitical risks on green bonds. However, we see that changes in economic policy uncertainty Granger-causes fluctuations in green bonds in both full and during the invasion of Ukraine. The results also reveal that the causality is temporary and permanent over the full period; temporary before the war; but turns out to be permanent and stronger during the war, indicating that uncertainty index can exert causal impacts on green bond indices regardless of market conditions and strengthens its power across extreme market conditions. Further, we resort to a time-varying approach of Breitung and Candelon (2006) causality test based on a rolling window of 50 and 60 daily observations. We find that the causal flows from both indicators appear significant and those causation impacts are not constant but time-varying. Economic policy uncertainty is stronger than geopolitics risks in forecasting the movements in green bonds given a higher rejection of the null hypothesis for the former variable. The causality is mostly permanent rather than temporary and the causation impacts from both variables are stronger during the war.

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Türkiye’de Enflasyonun Bazı Nedenleri ve Sonuçları

Author(s): Niyazi GÜMÜŞ / Language(s): Turkish Publication Year: 0

Enflasyon dünyanın bilhassa günümüzde önemli sorunlarından biri olmaya devam etmektedir. Covid-19 pandemi sürecinden itibaren tedarik zincirinde yaşanan olumsuz gelişmeler dünyada olduğu gibi ülkemizde de fiyatların artmasına neden olmuştur. Pandemi krizine bir de Rusya ile Ukrayna arasındaki savaşın eklenmesi, ABD ve AB ülkelerinin Rusya’ya uyguladığı ambargolara karşılık olarak Rusya’nın doğalgaz vanalarını kapatması, OPEC ülkelerinin petrol üretimini belirli bir seviyede tutma arzusu ve üretime kota getirmeleri dünyada enerji fiyatlarının, tahıl sevkiyatının kısıtlanması ise gıda fiyatlarının yükselmesine neden olmuştur.

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GOODBYE RUSSIA! THE EMANCIPATION OF EUROPEAN ENERGY

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The energy crisis in the European Union did not start on 24 February 2022, nor is it over yet. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has already become a turning point in the history of European energy policy and the beginning of the EU’s emancipation from Russian influence in the energy market. There is no more room for “business as usual” with Russia. Moreover, this energy divorce is accompanied by a series of measures to strengthen the EU’s resilience against any external threats to the energy system.

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THE NEW UKRAINE AND HOMO UCRAINENSIS

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

In 2021, Ukraine celebrated the 30th anniversary of its independence. Exhibitions, concerts, commemorative meetings, and festivals were held throughout the country. Ukraine demonstrated independence, unity, and strength. The celebrations showed how Ukrainian identity, state, and society had evolved over 30 years. The point of reference was no longer Russia - and for many Ukrainians it used to be; its place taken by Europe. Ukrainians began to emphasise that they no longer wanted to live in a state belonging to the post-Soviet space, dominated by a gloomy and passive homo sovieticus; they wanted to belong, and perhaps even already belonged, to the Western world, with freedom, democracy, and human rights as their core values. The evolution has been gradual, but it is easy to identify the turning points - the Orange Revolution of 2004 and the Revolution of Dignity of 2013. The changes that were taking place triggered interference from Russia, which did not want to accept the Ukrainian turn towards the West. Ukraine’s 30th anniversary was marred by the war that had by then already been going on for seven years.

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AN OVERVIEW ON THE TREATMENT OF UKRAINIAN REFUGEES AND THE ROMANIAN EXAMPLE OF GOOD PRACTICES

Author(s): Carmen Moldovan / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Since the aggression of Russian Federation in Ukraine, Europe experiences an influx of refugees coming from the neighbouring State. The response of private persons, non-governmental organizations, civil society and the Romanian government were prompt and oriented towards giving effect to the idea of international protection that vulnerable persons such as those applying for the status of refugee should benefit from. In order to put in place an effective framework of protection, the Government of Romania not only permitted access into the Romanian territory, but also adopted special legislation on temporary protection, in accordance with the measures undertaken by the European Union. The aim of this paper, on the one side, is to analyse the specific rules of International Law applicable to refugees, implications for the States and on the other, to emphasise the reasons for which the response coming from the Romanian authorities and society is an example of good practices.

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Terms through a strategic communications lens

Author(s): Leonie Haiden,Jente Althuis / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The relationship between strategic communications and values does not only concern how we define StratCom itself. The articulation of values has also been a central part of how actors have shaped and shifted discourses in relation to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. When actors use certain terms and concepts—defending Western values, protecting our freedom, fighting an existential war, to name but a few—they aim to shape how we understand the events going on around us, and how we react to them. But in doing so they also shape and sometimes (re)define the terms themselves. It is worth considering the origins of some of these terms, and setting out how and why they have recently been used and contested by different actors. The discussion below is by no means exhaustive. It addresses the most relevant and contested terms that have regained currency in discourse surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. The status of the debate is depicted below, rather than any fresh definition of the terms selected. Terms have already been extensively conceptualised during a rich history that has seen lively academic debate. Instead of redefining them here, better to show how contested some are, and contextualise how they are used today.

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MICRO-PERSPECTIVE: THE RISE OF THE NEW COMMISSARS—AN ASSESSMENT OF RUSSIAN INFLUENCE CAMPAIGNS ON THE EVE OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE

Author(s): Charlie Winter / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Shortly after 21.30 MST on 21 February 2022, Russian president Vladimir Putin declared that Moscow was set to recognise the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) in eastern Ukraine as independent territories. Moments later he gave the order for Russian ‘peacekeepers’ to deploy across the border into eastern Ukraine. Putin’s statement came just four days after a sustained surge in ceasefire violations by Russian and pro-Russian forces, which was reported by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence on 17 February, and amid widespread, months-long speculation regarding the prospect of a full-fledged war on Kyiv.

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REFLECTIONS ON DISCOURSE FORMATION AND INFLUENCE

Author(s): Neville Bolt / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

At this point the discussion broadens to include a wider consideration of how discourses move in relation to one another in societies. Discourse shaping seeks to create a new norm. As the philosopher Timothy Garton Ash observes: ‘The deepest power is that of determining what people consider normal. If you can persuade others that your way of doing things is normal, you have won. At the moment many mature democracies are experiencing the normalization of the anti-liberal far right.’ And ‘normalization’ as a term now widely employed, he reminds us, ‘came to prominence after the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. It meant the attempt to return a European society to Soviet communist norms.’ Here we emphasise that any two-dimensional representation misses an important component in creating new norms. Communicators rarely seek to influence a single mainstream conversation but several aspects of the same conversation simultaneously.

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RUSSIA’S 2022 INVASION OF UKRAINE: THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT ON KREMLIN-CONTROLLED DOMESTIC TELEVISION

Author(s): Max Levin / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

This report is focused on the relation-ship between Russia’s actions in the physical environment and its behaviour in the information environment (with a particular focus on Kremlin-aligned television) in the period leading up to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In the months before the invasion, many reports appeared in the media of Western countries claiming that Russia intended to invade Ukraine. Such reports were typically based on briefings from government sources (which were in turn ostensibly based on assessments made by intelligence agencies) or on open-source intelligence analyses. In either case, assessments were primarily founded on Russia’s behaviour in the physical domain3, such as movements of its troops and military equipment to areas adjacent to the Ukrainian border. This report is based on a desire to better understand how the information domain ought to fit into this dynamic of intelligence interpretation. It attempts to answer the following two questions...

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Státy Východního partnerství v české zahraniční politice

Author(s): Lucia Najšlová / Language(s): Czech Publication Year: 0

Rok 2014 byl pro diskusi o české východní politice mimořádně dynamický. Oproti roku 2013 se region těšil výrazně větší pozornosti politických stran, médií i veřejnosti. Nárůst pozornosti byl způsoben pokračujícím konfliktem na Ukrajině a události na Ukrajině zastínily vývoj v jiných zemích východní Evropy. Rostoucí pozor-nost je možno připsat nejen vývoji samotnému, ale zejména obavám o jeho dopad na českou ekonomiku. Energie věnovaná východu však nesměřovala jenom ke konstruk-tivní diskusi zaměřené na zkvalitnění politiky – dění na Ukrajině se stalo předmětem vnitropolitického boje. Východní politice dominovaly spory mezi Ministerstvem zahraničních věcí ČR a Hradem a spory v rámci vlády o sankce EU uplatněné na představitele a firmy z Ruské federace (RF).

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Амерички интервенционизам и сукоб у Украјини

Author(s): Davor Strika / Language(s): Bosnian,Croatian,Serbian Publication Year: 0

American foreign policy and its approach to the world, throughout its nearly two-and-a-half centuries of existence, can be divided into periods of isolation and intervention. The period of isolation spanned from the victory in the American War of Independence against the British Empire in 1783 until the Spanish-American War in 1898, considered a pivotal point in America's foreign relations and global approach. American involvement in two world wars, followed by its position as the sole superpower in a unipolar world after the Cold War triumph over the USSR in 1991, enabled the USA to pursue an interventionist foreign policy. This policy involved active military and diplomatic interventions worldwide, often directly employing military force in places such as the former Yugoslavia (B&H and Serbia), Afghanistan, Iraq, and indirectly through proxies, leading to "proxy" wars as seen in contemporary Ukraine. In Eastern Europe, we are currently witnessing the largest military conflict on the Old Continent since the end of World War II. Given its scale, involvement of parties, weaponry used, geopolitical interests, etc., we can confidently assert that this conflict is not merely a conflict between Ukraine and Russia, but rather between Russia and the West or Russia and the American concept of interventionism, i.e. the American hegemony in international relations.

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