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№103: “Unable to Leave”: Refugee Management and the Forgotten Refugee Crises in the Lake Chad Basin

Author(s): Viljar Haavik,Alessio Iocchi / Language(s): English

The refugees in the Lake Chad Basin are at the very bottom of a hierarchy shaped by the inability of the international community to handle the global refugee crisis. Unable to leave, the Lake Chad Basin refugees have become nearly invisible as they are situated in poor and vulnerable states bearing the brunt of the crisis with little to share.

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№183: Austria’s Modus Operandi: Variable Neutrality in Action

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Austria’s 65-year-old neutrality has been preserved through political consensus and growing public support. Over the years it has been a source of prestige for the country but also intense internal debate, especially before entering the EU or the establishment of Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO). Nowadays, it serves not only as a catchphrase for politicians but also as a political tool used internally and externally to secure Austria’s interest. In the internal dimension, it is used to legitimise various policies while in the latter case, its aim is to influence global affairs or to force better relations with other states, even at the expense of the country’s reputation as “permanently neutral.”

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Greece Votes in Early Parliamentary Elections

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

The pro-European, centre-right New Democracy party led by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who has led Greece since 2019, decisively won the early parliamentary elections on 21 May. However, the party will not form new cabinet but will seek new early elections, which will be held according to a new electoral law. New Democracy hopes that the result will enable it to govern on its own. The temporary political crisis and rule by a technical government will be short-lived and will not change Greek foreign policy.

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“V4 for Citizens” - Czechia Assumes Presidency of the Visegrad Group

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Czechia’s presidency of the Visegrad Group (V4), which began on 1 July, comes amid the biggest crisis in the functioning of this format in years. In the face of clear differences in reaction to the Russia-Ukraine war, the government of Petr Fiala proposes minimalist functioning of the V4. The Group is likely to focus on social cooperation, with low dynamics in other areas. Thus, the Czech presidency will resemble the previous Slovak one.

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An Easy and Quick Re-election for the President of Austria

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Alexander Van der Bellen won 56.7% of the vote in the elections in Austria on 9 October, and thus was re-elected in the first round for the next six years. This means in domestic politics a continuation of restraint in interfering in inter-party disputes, and in foreign politics, further verification of Austria’s continued relations with Russia and moderate involvement in the development of regional cooperation.

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Distrust Reigned at COP27

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

The COP27 climate summit, which took place on 6-20 November 2022 in Sharmel-Sheikh, Egypt, led to one important conclusion. The parties to the Conference approved the creation of a loss and damage fund for countries particularly vulnerable to climate change. However, the decision making process and the course of the negotiations make it difficult to talk about the success of the climate summit. The future implementation of the provisions of COP27 is also questionable, as countries that previously promised to provide funds for adaptation and mitigation have not yet fulfilled their obligations.

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Local and Regional Elections in Russia in the Shadow of the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

The three-day regional and local elections in Russia concluded on 11 September. Through blocking and intimidation of independent candidates and electoral manipulation, the victory went to the party in power, United Russia. The Russian authorities failed, however, to hold referendums in the occupied territories of Ukraine, citing “security reasons”, coinciding with the effective counter-offensive by Ukrainian troops in the Kharkiv region.

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The Political and Economic Crisis in Sri Lanka

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

After months of mass protests over the drastic deterioration of living conditions in Sri Lanka, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country on 13 July and resigned. This marks the end of almost two decades of rule by the Rajapaksa clan, but it does not end the political crisis that will complicate the way to economic recovery. The change of power on the island will limit China’s influence and open up opportunities for India and Western countries.

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Emmanuel Macron Re-elected as President of France

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Emmanuel Macron defeated the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in the second round of the French presidential election on April 24, 2022, obtaining 58.54% of the vote. While Macron's advantage is higher than expected, it was achieved with a lower turnout, which is evidence of a declining interest in political life in France, especially among young people. The newest challenges for the president will be to maintain the majority in the National Assembly after the June elections, and to continue reforms to increase the competitiveness of the French economy in the difficult macroeconomic conditions.

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Consequences of the Presidential Elections in Iran

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The presidential elections in Iran on 18 June were won by ultra-conservative Ebrahim Raisi, who has the clear support of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The president-elect of Iran has declared disassociation from the policies of his “centrist” predecessor, Hassan Rowhani. Raisi’s previous career and worldview do not herald positive changes within Iran and its regional policy. However, it is likely that Iran will return - with the U.S. - to the original arrangements of the July 2015 nuclear deal from which President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S.

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Hungary Takes Over the V4 Presidency

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

On 1 July, Hungary took over the annual presidency of the Visegrad Group (the V4 - Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia). It will focus on the economic recovery after the pandemic. At the same time, its management of the group’s activities will serve to promote the country’s views in the discussion on the future of Europe.

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Changes in the Austrian Government Following Accusations of Abuse of Power

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

On 11 October, Alexander Schallenberg replaced Sebastian Kurz as chancellor of Austria. The change was a consequence of the start of another investigation of Kurz for abuse of power. The new foreign minister, Michael Linhart, will continue the current foreign policy.

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Iraq after the Parliamentary Elections

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

The results of the parliamentary elections in Iraq indicate that the political scene will remain fragmented, which will hamper the formation of a new government. In addition, the record low turnout (41%) and the lack of significant changes on the political scene compared to before the 2019 mass protests will weaken the legitimacy of the next government. Although the political grouping that relies most on anti-Western rhetoric achieved its best results in modern elections, Iraq will strive to maintain a neutral position in the face of U.S.- Iran rivalry.

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Nigerian Okonjo-Iweala is the WTO’s New Director-General

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

On 15 February, the member states of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) elected Ngozi OkonjoIweala as Director-General of the organisation. She is the first woman and first African in this position. She will focus on fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, reforming the WTO, and mitigating the effects of the U.S.-China rivalry. Her election likely increases the importance of the interests of the least-developed members of the organisation, which may lead to a revival of talks that are sensitive to the EU, for example, concerning agriculture.

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The Death of Chad’s President - a Challenge for the Stability of the Sahel

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

On 19 April, Chad’s President Idriss Déby died from wounds sustained in a clash between antigovernment rebels and the troops he was visiting. The military took power and named the president’s 37-year-old son as the new leader. The state is threatened with destabilisation, which would reduce the ability of the Sahel G5 forces to act against jihadist militants in the region.

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Maduro Consolidates Power after Parliamentary Elections in Venezuela

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

The pro-government coalition’s win in the elections to the National Assembly (AN) held on 6 December means Nicolás Maduro will resume full control of state institutions. The EU, the U.S., and other countries that recognise Juan Guaidó as interim president are questioning the legitimacy of the elections and will intensify Venezuela’s international isolation. In response, the Maduro government will be enhancing cooperation with Russia and China, among others. Consequently, the option to resolve the political conflict in Venezuela through negotiations between the government and opposition, as promoted by the EU, will drift away.

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Uncertainty as World Waits on U.S. Elections Results

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Election Day in the U.S. is over but the ballot counting continues. The winner of the presidential election and official results may only be known in a few days. However, Donald Trump on election night declared himself the winner and said he would have lawyers arguing at the Supreme Court to suspend the counting of remaining votes to maintain his advantage in some states.

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The End of “One Country, Two Systems” in Hong Kong

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

On 30 June, the Standing Committee of the Chinese National People’s Congress adopted the Hong Kong National Security Law, and Chairman Xi Jinping signed it. It entered into force on 1 July. In selected cases, it violates Hong Kong’s jurisdictional independence under the “one state, two systems” principle reflected in the legally binding Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984 regarding the transfer of the region to China.

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The U.S. Will Leave the World Health Organization

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

President Donald Trump announced on 29 May that the United States is withdrawing from the World Health Organization (WHO). Although he said this decision was based on supposed Chinese control of the WHO and the body’s refusal to undertake reforms demanded by the U.S., the reason also could be his aim to divert American public attention from his administration’s negligence in the fight against COVID-19. The U.S. must let a year lapse between notification and withdrawal and pay any outstanding contributions before it fully exits. From Poland’s perspective, the U.S. leaving the WHO is unfavourable because it reduces the chances of broader reform of the body.

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