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From purges to a ‘new Turkey’ – the final stage of the state’s reconstruction

Author(s): Mateusz R. Chudziak / Language(s): English

The purges in the state apparatus which have been underway in Turkey since the failed military coup represent a decisive stage in the construction of a ‘new Turkey’, involving both the final elimination of the remaining elements of the old Kemalist establishment and the crackdown on the group centred around Fethullah Gülen, a preacher and former government ally accused of plotting the coup. The authorities view him as the greatest threat. In a broader context, the aim of the purges is to ultimately replace the present elites with new ones. This may lead to the elimination of any conceivable opposition capable of threatening the rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

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Macedonia: a superficial democracy in the shadow of crises

Author(s): Marta Szpala / Language(s): English

Until 2008, Macedonia was leading the process of EU and NATO integration, and (after Croatia) was the fastest-reforming Western Balkan country. However, since Macedonia’s negotiations on joining the EU and NATO were blocked, in connection with its dispute with Greece, the Macedonian government has moved away from a policy of reform towards reinforcing its autocratic system and consolidating society behind nationalist slogans. Also the EU, which had hitherto been the driving force behind the changes, has due to its internal crises been paying little attention to violations of democratic standards in the Republic of Macedonia, tensions in relations between the Slavic Macedonians and the Albanian minority (which make up over 25% of the population), and the country’s permanent political domestic crises.In 2015 a wave of anti-government protests and the publication of recordings of phone taps testifying to the state’s effective takeover by the ruling VMRO-DPMNE party, as well as armed clashes between the police and a group of armed Albanians in Kumanovo, led to an escalation of the political crisis and mobilised the government’s opponents. Thanks to the mediation of the EU, an agreement was negotiated in July 2015 that was supposed to lead to the democratisation of the country. This compromise, however, was only a tactical manoeuvre which allowed the ruling camp to ease tensions. Moreover, the increase in importance of the Balkan migration route meant that Macedonia’s stability began to play an important role in reducing migratory pressures on the EU’s boundaries, and the Macedonian government has become an important partner for the EU in resolving the crisis. Consequently, the EU’s emphasis on democratising the system has definitely lessened. At the same time, high frustration and social polarisation, in conjunction with an undemocratic system, means that stability is very fragile, and periodic escalations in tensions can be expected.

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How to get out of the crisis without reforms? The Belarusian authorities confront growing economic problems

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

2015 saw a drop in Belarus’s GDP for the first time in almost 20 years, which is primarily the result of a significant reduction in levels of production and export. As a consequence, there was also a serious depletion of the country’s foreign exchange reserves, as well as a progressive weakening of the Belarusian rouble. The macroeconomic figures from January and February 2016 show that these trends are not only continuing, but they are also becoming even more severe, which confirms that Belarus now finds itself in a prolonged economic crisis. On one hand, the reason for this state of affairs is the protracted economic recession in Russia, which is Belarus’s main economic partner, together with the drastic global decline in prices for fuel, which is a key Belarusian export. On the other hand, meanwhile, an equally important reason for the current crisis is the failure of the Belarusian economic model. President Aleksandr Lukashenko, out of fear that his authoritarian system of government will be dismantled and that public discontent will rise, has categorically rejected the proposals for even partial reforms put forward by some of his entourage, who are aware of the need for the immediate transformation of the country’s anachronistic and very costly economic model, based as it still is on quasi-Soviet management policies.

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Tajikistan: a chronic stagnation

Author(s): Józef Lang / Language(s): English

Since gaining its independence Tajikistan has faced severe political, economic and social problems. The last several months has seen a clear increase in their intensity. This is in part caused by the deteriorating economic situation in Russia and the significant fall of remittances from the Tajik labour migrants in Russia, as well as by President Emomali Rahmon’s rising authoritarianism. Despite this intensification, qualitatively speaking Tajikistan’s problems have been unchanged for years. Besides the state’s structural weakness, the main cause is the ongoing neo-colonial dependence on Russia, which effectively limits Dushanbe’s room for political manoeuvre and keep Tajikistan in Russia’s sphere of control. This dependence on the one hand protects the country from collapsing, but on the other it precludes the development of the state, resulting in Tajikistan’s enduring stagnation. Similar processes also take place in other countries of post-Soviet Central Asia. However, in the case of Tajikistan the dependence and stagnation it causes are the strongest and their mechanisms most easily observed.

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Odessa Oblast: Governor Saakashvili’s superficial changes

Author(s): Tomasz Piechal / Language(s): English

Two years after the Revolution of Dignity, Odessa Oblast, one of Ukraine’s key regions in economic and political terms, is still strongly polarised as regards its residents’ views on the future of their country. The political circles rooted in the Party of Regions have maintained their influence to a great extent due to increasing dissatisfaction with the central government’s activity and with the economic crisis which has strongly affected the public. Politicians linked to the ancien régime remain the most important political players. Some pro-Ukrainian circles had pinned their hopes for change in the region on the nomination of the former Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili, for governor of Odessa Oblast on 30 May 2015. At the beginning of his rule this politician made widely publicised promises to combat corruption, to improve the quality of the administration services, to develop infrastructure and to attract foreign capital. However, more than half a year has passed since he assumed office, and it is difficult to speak about any spectacular successes in reforming the region. Saakashvili has above all become a player on the national forum, supporting the presidential camp in their struggle with Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and the oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyi, among others. However, his nomination has made Odessa Oblast more important for Ukraine, above all in political and symbolic terms. This is because Odessa Oblast is the best manifestation of the condition of the Ukrainian state two years since the Revolution of Dignity – rudimentary reforms or no reforms at all, strong resistance to any changes from the administration, strong local political-business connections, the lack of consolidation among post-Maidan groups and corruption inherent in the system.

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Public feeling in Ukraine ahead of the parliamentary election

Author(s): Tadeusz Iwański / Language(s): English

After two and a half years under President Viktor Yanukovych and the Party of Regions, the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians are dissatisfied with the state the country’s economy is currently in and the direction it has been developing in. There has also been a significant drop in stability and social security with the general public increasingly feeling that the government has little interest in their problems.Only 16% of Ukrainians believe that the current government has performed better than their predecessors, although overall confidence in both the ruling party and the opposition remains low. Nonetheless, falling support for the president and the Cabinet does not seem to have translated into greater popularity for the country’s opposition parties; these currently enjoy the confidence of only a quarter of the electorate. The clear lack of credibility for politicians on either side of the political spectrum, coupled with an almost universal preoccupation with the bare necessities of life, has shifted the political processes in Ukraine further down the agenda for the majority of Ukrainians.

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Wybory do Bundestagu – być albo nie być dla liberałów

Author(s): Artur Ciechanowicz / Language(s): Polish

Porażka FDP w wyborach do Bundestagu w 2013 roku, w których partia nie zdołała pokonać 5-procentowego progu wyborczego, przez wielu komentatorów została potraktowana jako koniec liberałów. Potwierdzały to kolejne przegrane wybory landowe i topniejące szeregi członków ugrupowania. FDP stała się symbolem schorzeń niemieckiego życia politycznego i wad polityków: klientelizmu, koniunkturalizmu, bezideowości i chciwości. Ugrupowanie, które mogło pochwalić się 64-letnią nieprzerwaną obecnością w Bundestagu, udziałem w koalicjach rządowych na przestrzeni 45 lat, dwoma prezydentami RFN wywodzącymi się z jej szeregów i wieloletnim szefem niemieckiej dyplomacji Hansem-Dietrichem Genscherem, w ciągu zaledwie czterech lat (2009–2013), kiedy współrządziło z chadekami, stało się niewybieralne.

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Kryzys Partii Zielonych w „zielonych” Niemczech

Author(s): Artur Ciechanowicz / Language(s): Polish

Jeszcze w połowie 2016 roku partia Zielonych była wymieniana jako pewny kandydat do współrządzenia po wyborach do Bundestagu 24 września 2017 roku. I to nie tylko tradycyjnie jako ewentualny partner koalicyjny socjaldemokratów, lecz również chadeków. Dzięki krótkotrwałej przewadze zdobytej przez umiarkowane skrzydło (tzw. Realos) i 14-procentowemu poparciu w sondażach partia Zielonych dla dużej części CDU-CSU stała się akceptowalnym partnerem do wspólnych rządów. Plany te musiały ulec poważnej weryfikacji. I to nie za sprawą różnic programowych, które wcale się nie zwiększyły. Dwucyfrowe poparcie dla Zielonych sprzed roku znacząco stopniało i obecnie partia może liczyć jedynie na 6–7% głosów, a nawet musi brać pod uwagę scenariusz, w którym nie przekroczy 5-procentowego progu wyborczego i nie będzie reprezentowana w przyszłym parlamencie. Byłby to podwójny paradoks, ponieważ obecnie ugrupowanie to osiągnęło apogeum swojej potęgi i realnych wpływów poprzez udział w koalicjach rządowych w dziesięciu (na 16) landach oraz silną reprezentację w drugiej izbie niemieckiego parlamentu – Bundesracie. A co ważniejsze, ekologiczna świadomość społeczeństwa niemieckiego jest najwyższa w historii, propagowany przez Zielonych styl życia należy do mainstreamu i jest opatrzony pozytywną konotacją etyczną. Wszystko to powinno uwidaczniać skuteczność partii i działać na jej korzyść. Tymczasem trend jest odwrotny. Niezdolność do wykorzystania atutów nie jest zapowiedzią upadku partii, lecz wynikiem permanentnego wewnętrznego sporu o jej tożsamość, ukierunkowanie programowe i cele. Rozwiązanie sporu na rzecz skrzydła umiarkowanego mogłoby spowodować przekształcenie się Zielonych w partię masową, jak SPD czy chadecja. Szanse na to są jednak nikłe i ugrupowanie jest skazane na poparcie poniżej 10%.

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Walka z korupcją na Ukrainie – w oczekiwaniu na rezultaty

Author(s): Piotr Żochowski,Marta Jaroszewicz / Language(s): Polish

Systemic corruption has been the dominant problem of an independent Ukraine for more than two decades. The takeover of the state by a political-business group led by Viktor Yanukovych had been one of the principal causes for large-scale street protests during the Revolution of Dignity. Following the 2014 power shift, slogans calling for combating corruption and cleaning up the elites have featured among the most important priorities announced by President Petro Poroshenko and two consecutive prime ministers – Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Volodymyr Groysman. Moreover, the fight against corruption remains the West’s main condition to support Ukraine.It is difficult to make an unambiguous assessment of the achievements of the past three years. The frequently expressed view that the anti-corruption reform has failed cannot be accepted. Complex socio-political processes should not be measured in the short-term perspective. In a legal and institutional sense, much more has been done in the field of combating corruption than over the whole period of Ukraine’s independence. On the other hand, the actual results of anti-corruption activities are few in number. The Ukrainian leadership has lost its initial zeal for reform and the parliamentary majority frequently adopts legislation that hampers the fight against corruption. Resistance of a major portion of the political elite and of various interest groups has been increasingly evident. They fear that the anti-corruption reform will disable them from doing business according to former methods. The principal success involves the establishment of two independent institutions: the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAP). This is accompanied by the systemic involvement of civil society in the fight against corruption. In both 2015 and 2016, drastically low number of court rulings regarding corruption-related crimes did not increase. However, in recent months, for the first time in history, several prominent politicians and officials have been arrested. This has triggered serious concern in influential political and business groups which, in response, have stepped up their efforts to fight independent anti-corruption institutions. Ukraine has neared a critical moment when the first high-ranking officials may be convicted of crimes. However, this is a very uneven fight since it is being waged only by those employees of the anti-corruption institutions, who are ready to break the ‘old ties’ with support from the international community and non-governmental organisations.

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The Paradoxes of Moldovan Sports. An insight into the nature of the Transnistrian conflict

Author(s): Adam Eberhardt / Language(s): English

Mutual relations in the area of sports, which in contemporary international contacts often not only reflect the true nature of political relations but sometimes even affect them, can be a valuable contribution to the analysis of this conflict’s nature.Why did the Transnistrian government, despite the use of anti-Moldovan rhetoric, agree to Transnistrian athletes representing Moldova during the Olympics and in other international competitions? Why does it accept the presence of sports teams from both banks of the Dniester playing in the same leagues? Why does Transnistria, despite being much smaller, predominate in many sports? How is it that Sheriff Tiraspol, the flagship football club of the business and political circles controlling Transnistria, managed to win the Moldovan championship ten times in a row and is the main source of players for Moldova’s national team? Does sport really ‘know no borders’ or perhaps the border on the Dniester is different than seems at first sight?

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In Putin’s Shadow. Dmitry Medvedev’s presidency

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English

Dmitry Medvedev’s presidency was an experiment carried out by the Russian ruling elite. Even though the new president has been a loyal member of the ruling camp, this decision involved certain risk that the extensive constitutional powers could eventually encourage the new president to seek emancipation, which could provoke internal conflicts and splits in the elite. This paper analyses Medvedev’s presidency and tries to answer the question why this scenario did not take place and why Medvedev failed to overcome the restrictions imposed on him at the start of his presidential term. The paper also presents the activation of certain social groups during Medvedev’s presidency and their calls for a new social contract with the government.

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'The power gained, we will never surrender' Russian ruling elite versus the succession and economic crisis

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English,Polish

Even though the economic crisis proved harmful to the Russian economy and people's living standards, it has nonetheless failed to make the elite revise its policy. Despite some problems, the government has managed to sustain economic and political stability, thanks to the reserves it amassed in the times of prosperity, and to the propaganda campaign that protected it, above all Vladimir Putin. The crisis failed to force the elite to implement deeper structural and political reforms. Moreover, it has actually reinforced existing tendencies, such as state control over the economy and its oil-oriented character, the elite's economic expansion at the expense of private businesses, and the preservation of political power. Thus, the crisis has so far failed to dismantle Putinism, indeed quite the reverse - it has in fact contributed to its becoming 'set in stone'.

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The Berlin Republic. Evolution of Germany's politics of memory and German patriotism

Author(s): Krzysztof Marcin Zalewski / Language(s): English

Important changes have occurred in recent years in the attitude of a majority of the German elite towards the history of the 20th century and the political identity built on collective memory. Until recently, the sense of guilt for the crimes of the Third Reich and the obligation to remember were prevalent.While these two elements of Germany's memory of World War II are still important, currently the focus increasingly shifts to the German resistance against Nazism and the fate of the Germans who suffered in the war. Positive references to Germany's post-war history also occupy more and more space in the German memory. In 2009, i.e. the year of the 60th anniversary of the Federal Republic of Germany and the 20th anniversary of the fall of Communism, the efforts of German public institutions concentrate on promoting a new canon of history built around the successful democratisation and Germany's post-war economic success. The purpose behind these measures is to build a common historical memory that could be shared by the eastern and western parts of Germany and appeal to Germany's immigrants, who account for a growing proportion of the society.

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The Great Game around Turkmenistan

Author(s): Maciej Falkowski,Aleksandra Jarosiewicz / Language(s): English

The rise of a new leader of the state of Turkmenistan – President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, who became ruler of the central Asian state after the 21-year rule of Saparmurad Niyazov, the self-proclaimed Turkmenbashi, who died on December 21, 2006 – has initiated changes in Turkmenistan’s political life. The new president has broken with the previous policy of self-isolation, and has directed the country towards openness to the outside world. Opportunities have thereby arisen for competitors in the ‘Great Game’, to gain political influence in Turkmenistan and access to hitherto unexploited Turkmen deposits of gas and oil. A new stage in the Great Game, which has been played for influence in Central Asia and control of access to its energy resources for many years, can thus be said to have been launched, and Turkmenistan has become the main setting for it. The major actors involved are Russia, the United States, China and the European Union.

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Priceless friendship

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

The Western sanctions have proved painful for the Russian elite not only in terms of finance, but also of image and prestige. However, thanks to the EU's much softer sanctions policy compared to the US, the Russian oligarchs have still been able to conduct their business in Europe, either directly or through intermediaries. Since March 2014, the Kremlin has tried to compensate selected businessmen for at least some of the losses they have suffered. The activities of the Russian state apparatus are a coordinated policy aimed at supporting oligarchs in the immediate vicinity of the president, the costs of which have been borne by Russian society. The flow of assets among individual persons belonging to the Russian elite (both among private businessmen and state-owned companies) which has occurred as a result of the sanctions and the attempts to minimise losses, has revealed the close symbiosis and the blurring of boundaries between private and state capital in Russia.

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Monitoring report on the implementation of the Priority Reform Action Roadmap (5th July – 22nd November 2017)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This report provides an independent evaluation of the implementation of Roadmap provisions for June - November 2017. The document covers eight policy areas, with a summary of developments for each of the actions, comments on the main achievements, and a list of relevant policy recommendations. Evaluation of the implementation of provisions of the Priority Reform Action Roadmap was based on a methodology focused both on the evaluation of the implementation in terms of the established timelines and in terms of the quality of the implemented actions. Given that timelines for several actions included in the Roadmap were rather tight, and therefore were often missed, the evaluation of progress was focused on the quality of acts adopted/measures taken and their potential impact (Annex 1).

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Despre cum se pierd banii publici: Sinteza rapoartelor Curții de Conturi, Semestrul I 2017

Author(s): Tatiana Savva / Language(s): Romanian

Two decisions out of the 10 published, concerned the way in which the institutions previously referred to in the audit reports implemented the recommendations submitted: the Agency for Interventions and Payments in Agriculture on the subject of the subsidies granted and the Ministry of Internal Affairs on the subject of real progress and prospects for the automation of processes in the field internal affairs. // This study, in turn, comes to present the synthesis of the main findings from the reports of the Court of Accounts on four themes: the way in which the money from the Mandatory Medical Assistance Insurance Funds is spent, how correctly the money from this fund was spent by the National House of Social Security, how the money was spent to restructure the wine sector and how well the National Food Safety Agency and its subordinate institutions manage the financial resources and assets under management.

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Final Monitoring Report on the Implementation of the Priority Reform Action Roadmap (5 July - 31 December 2017)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The Final Report on the Implementation of the Roadmap provides an independent evaluation of the implementation of Roadmap provisions for the entire period set in the document, 5 July – 31 December 2017. The document covers eight policy areas, with a summary of developments for each of the actions, comments on the main concerns and achievements, and a list of relevant policy recommendations. // The implementation of the Priority Reform Action Roadmap was evaluated on the basis of a methodology focused both on the assessment of timeline and quality of the implemented actions. Given that deadlines for a number of actions included in the Roadmap were rather tight, and therefore were often missed, the evaluation of progress was focused on the quality of acts adopted/measures taken and their potential impact (Annex). // This document represents the final assessment report on the Roadmap implementation, which is based on updating the interim assessment report published on 1 December 2017.

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Autonomia financiară în Republica Moldova: evoluția veniturilor bugetelor locale

Author(s): Dumitru Budianschi / Language(s): Romanian

Currently, with reference to Local Budgets, in the Republic of Moldova there are practically 2 budget systems. One system works in Gagauzia and another for the rest of the country. The local authorities of Găgăuzia do not participate in the formation system of the Financial Support Fund of administrative-territorial units (FSF), instead Găgăuzia retains practically all taxes and state fees collected on its territory. Also, the authorities of Gagauzia benefit without restrictions from all the spending programs in the BS, having the same rights as LPAs in the rest of the country. The rest of the authorities, although they are covered by the same concept of budget formation, however, due to regulatory peculiarities, there are major differences in the structure of revenue formation for two other groups of local authorities: (i) for districts, and (ii) Balti and Chisinau municipalities.

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Economic Models of Aid Effectiveness in Moldova

Author(s): Theocharis Grigoriadis,Sergiu Gaibu / Language(s): English

In this paper, we provide an overview of the objectives and challenges to be met in the delivery of EU development aid to Moldova. Our analysis, carried out with pooled OLS, suggests that aid commitments and the number of aid projects are conducive to higher levels of socio-economic development; while the results for aid disbursements are in the same direction, they are less robust. EU development aid is effective when we introduce the three-year lag and the outcome variable is long-term investment, meaning that the impact of EU development aid can be observed in the medium and long-run, which points on positive and sustainable impact on the development of the country. Giving Central European bilateral donors such as Austria, Slovakia, and Romania a share in the programs does tend to generate higher levels of socio-economic performance. The same observation holds for transport, health, and water projects. The authors found that aid disbursements are much lower compared to aid commitments, revealing a large unexplored potential of EU development aid in Moldova, which is mostly due to governance issues in Moldova. In order to bridge the gap between aid commitments and aid disbursements, it is important for the European Union to bolster transnational sovereignty partnerships that bypass central government budgets and foster the implementation of local-scale projects with the participation of subnational bureaucracies and local civil society.

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