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№038: Rola fundacji politycznych w promowaniu demokracji – rekomendacje dla Polski

Author(s): Kinga Brudzińska / Language(s): Polish

The author discusses the benefits associated with the activities of politically-affiliated foundations as instruments of democracy promotion. Such foundations, despite their non-governmental status, often depend on direct financial support from their political counterparts, or benefit from budgetary resources of the home country. Political foundations focus on technical and organisational support for emerging political parties in third countries, aid during electoral campaigns, or training in political marketing and public communication for individual activists. Political foundations tend to actively scrutinise the policies of the host state if they deem them dangerous or otherwise unwanted, thus leading to friction and tensions on the official level. Political foundations need to walk a fine line between their daily, statutory activities and the need to avoid being seen as influencing the domestic politics of the host state. The analysis concludes with a list of pros and cons of creating political foundations in Poland, and an attempt to identify the ways in which they could benefit the Polish democratisation agenda.

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The staff of the EEAS. An issue for 2013 review?

Author(s): Ryszarda Formuszewicz,Dorota Liszczyk / Language(s): English

In the context of the forthcoming review of the European External Action Service, scheduled for 2013, staff issues may well find themselves in the spotlight given their importance for the efficiency of this structure. The current personnel policy and recruitment process – carefully watched by the Member States – have reduced the imbalances in the representation of individual EU members within the EEAS staff, but not eliminated them. The review should, therefore, provide an opportunity to search for further acceptable solutions to compensate existing deficits, so that European diplomacy is equipped with the competencies and skills to meet the challenges of the twenty-first century.

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The European Union Presidency

Author(s): Leszek Jesień / Language(s): English

It is assumed here that the presidency concept in the European Union—in its political and managerial aspects—has been transformed over the years into a specific, institutionalized procedure of EU politics and policy-making. That means EU member states have established the presidency as a means for their cooperation, although it was initially somewhat less institutionalized. Its objective is a search for legitimacy in decision-making; hence the ways and means of making decisions that find support from all. The procedure is effectively a living set of specific rules of behaviour that are known to all the actors involved.

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The Local Government Dimension of Relations between Poland and Latin America

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska,Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Poland’s interest in Latin America has been increasing in recent years, mainly in economic terms. Yet local government remains an underestimated tool in advancing these relations. Greater activity by Polish local authorities could help in developing business and academic ties with the region, and allow the exchange of experience in fields such as urban development and revitalisation. Geographical distance, lack of knowledge and financial constraints are the main reasons for Polish local authorities’ low interest in Latin America so far.

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British Party System and the Brexit Negotiations

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

During their annual conventions in September and October, British parties presented updated visions of the country’s EU exit. The Conservatives and Labour eventually took clear “hard” and “soft” Brexit positions, respectively. These decisions result from the division in British society and are intended to reinforce the dominance of both parties against the others. This party competition, however, hardens the position of the British government in negotiations with the EU. It also increases the likelihood of Prime Minister Theresa May being replaced by a Conservative Eurosceptic in case of a crisis in the UK-EU talks.

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SPD’s Elections Strategy: Gain Support from Social Promises

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Germany’s Social Democrats have launched their federal election campaign with a series of welfare promises. Its goals are to regain the support of left-wing voters and reconquer terrain in the political centre from the Christian Democrats. If the SPD’s strategy succeeds, German economic policy would shift to the left. For Poland, this may mean better conditions for exports but also the challenge of faster integration of the euro area.

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French Presidential Candidate Macron’s European Policy Concept

Author(s): Łukasz Jurczyszyn / Language(s): English

The outcome of the French presidential election may be decisive to further European integration. Candidate Emmanuel Macron, who favours further integration of the eurozone and through the European Common Security and Defence Policy, has a great chance to win. His victory also would bring renewal of the Franco-German partnership as the driver of change in the European Union and a shift to the “multi-speed” Union vision. The concepts held by this centrist candidate fit into the mainstream of debate on the future of the EU, which, if he succeeds, would make him one of Europe’s main leaders.

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Germany’s Migration Policy Correction: Distancing from Extreme Proposals

Author(s): Miłosława Fijałkowska / Language(s): English

The mass-migration crisis that enveloped Germany in 2015 has had consequences for ruling party CDU, mainly costing it support. It also increased the popularity of extreme right-wing party Alternative for Germany, which demands a drastic tightening of the country’s immigration policy. Instead of the extreme measures, Chancellor Angela Merkel has decided on a revised approach that combines tightening immigration laws, greater protection and monitoring of borders, and increasing deportations of people refused legal protection in Germany. Merkel’s policy has brought positive results, but the price for it is seen in cracks in the ruling coalition and even within her own party.

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Martin Schulz Stands as SPD’s Candidate for Chancellor: Implications for Germany, the EU and Polish-German Relations

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

On 29 January, Martin Schulz became chairman of the Social Democrats (SPD) and its candidate for chancellor of Germany. Schulz will strengthen the leadership of the party and his nomination makes the election campaign more exciting. The moderate growth of SPD in the elections may determine the continuation of the grand coalition and the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel. However, a better result for SPD may open the way to other coalitions and put Schulz in the chancellor’s office, which would entail a change in European politics in Germany. A change in the government and political scene in Germany would be a big challenge for Polish-German relations.

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The Russian Federation’s New Foreign Policy Concept

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

On 30 November 2016, President Vladimir Putin signed a new Russian Foreign Policy Concept. In the document, Russia states its aspirations to pursue an active policy in the field of international security (especially in the Middle East). One of its instruments will be seeking opportunities for cooperation with the administration of the new president of the United States. Relations with the EU will be reduced to economic cooperation, while more focus will be placed on developing political and economic relations with Asian countries.

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Role of Local Governments in Development Cooperation Projects and Contact with the Polish Diaspora

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): English

Local authorities may be an important partner for central government in support for the Eastern Partnership countries and the Polish diaspora. However, there is need for greater local government involvement in development aid projects, and in strengthening ties with Polish diaspora on the local level, especially in connection with the Polish government policy of repatriation. Due to the small share of local governments engaged in development aid projects, their extensive network of international contacts, expertise and prior experience with foreign partners remain unused. Current regulations governing competitions for the support of the Polish diaspora do not allow local governments to apply for grants, yet it is worth changing the rules next year.

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The Ulyukaev case – tension inside the Russian elite

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś,Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

Alexey Ulyukaev, the Minister for Economic Development, was detained on 14 November 2016. Subsequently the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation launched an investigation against him on the charge of accepting a bribe (US$2 million). The bribe was reportedly offered in appreciation of the ministry’s positive opinion that enabled the state-owned oil company Rosneft to take over a 50.08% stake in Bashneft (the transaction was finalised on 12 October 2016). Much seems to indicate that the Ulyukaev case is an element of the rivalry of opposing groups of interest inside the Russian ruling elite. The operation was initiated by the CEO of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, and its goal was to deal a blow against the government’s economic bloc criticising Rosneft’s expansion in the Russian energy sector. In turn, the Ulyukaev trial itself has been used by Sechin’s numerous opponents to undermine his position. However, the developments seen over the past year show that Igor Sechin remains the key player in the Russian energy sector. He owes his position to his close links with Vladimir Putin and the important function which Rosneft plays in the country’s domestic and foreign policy. The conflict between interest groups is an integral element of the Russian political system, and allows the Russian president to play the role of arbiter in the government elite. The rules of operation of this system are unlikely to change significantly in the coming years.

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The Kremlin’s regional policy – a year of dismissing governors

Author(s): Maria Domańska / Language(s): English

2017 has seen a wave of dismissals of the heads of Russia’s regions – the largest in the past five years. This is linked primarily to the Kremlin’s preparations for the presidential election. Personnel changes are among the few instruments the government has at its disposal to improve public support, given the dysfunctional governance model, growing dissatisfaction among the Russian public and the government team’s unwillingness to launch reforms.Even though it would appear that there is no single consistent algorithm for reshuffles on the level of governors (each decision to dismiss and nominate a governor has been considered separately), still the criteria that were taken into account in the first place included the socio-economic situation in the region, the degree of tension inside the regional elite, and public support for the incumbent governor. The Kremlin’s inability to formulate an appealing and credible election manifesto has been masked by a partial rejuvenation of the regional government staff and a temporary neutralisation of tension in some of the regions. Thus the staff ‘face-lift’ ahead of the election is aimed predominantly at building a positive image; the main goal is to give hope to the public, at least temporarily, of positive changes.The position of governors in the Russian government system has been gradually diminishing. Their competences and status have been consistently reduced as part of the process of increasing the centralisation of power in Russia. The logic of the personnel changes carried out in 2017 proves that the status of the governor’s office has been finally downgraded and depoliticised: the newly appointed governors are in fact middle managers and representatives of the nomenklatura delegated from the centre and at the full disposal of the central government.

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Putin for the fourth time. No vision, no hope

Author(s): Maria Domańska / Language(s): English

On 6 December Vladimir Putin announced that he will run in the presidential election to be held on 18 March 2018. The absence of any change in the office of Russia’s president is rooted in the logic of a personalised system of governance that has emerged in Russia. It is also a demonstration of the government’s will to maintain the present course in domestic and foreign policy, one that is static and devoid of any scope for development. This is regardless of the fact that the government is struggling with increasingly serious economic and socio- -political challenges. These mainly include economic stagnation, continuously decreasing real incomes, and tense relations with the West, all combined with the lack of a coherent, positive ideology to legitimise Putin’s model. Against this backdrop, the election-related actions the government has taken to date are of a provisional and tactical nature: they focus on efforts to achieve a stabilisation of the socio-political situation and to eliminate possible threats to the ruling elite in the pre- and post-election period. At the same time, attempts are being made to make the electoral ritual more attractive, so as to boost turnout and thereby demonstrate a high approval rating for both the president and the model of governance he endorses.

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Moldova’s political theatre. The balance of forces in an election year

Author(s): Kamil Całus / Language(s): English

Since the end of 2015 Vlad Plahotniuc, an oligarch and the richest man in Moldova, leader of the ruling, nominally pro-European Democratic Party, has been de facto the only person who counts in Moldovan politics and business. He is an extremely unpopular politician who has been accused of transforming Moldova into a classic ‘captured state’. However, he has been forced to work with Igor Dodon, the country’s nominally opposition and pro-Russian President, who enjoys the most public trust, as well as with the Socialist party (PSRM) which stands behind him. Both politicians have created a particular system of government which is something like a political cartel[1]. The parties which make it up are conducting a largely superficial ideological-political struggle which stirs up huge emotions and polarises society. The dominant role in the tandem is played by Plahotniuc, who is much more powerful, as he controls the government and the parliamentary majority, and is also the main beneficiary of the current system.However, the system which has been created in Moldova is highly unstable and should be seen as short-term in nature. The greatest threat to Plahotniuc in the near future comes from the parliamentary elections scheduled for the end of 2018. Given the PSRM’s high popularity and the low levels of support for Plahotniuc and his party, the election will probably be won by the Socialists, who could form a parliamentary majority under President Dodon. For this reason, Plahotniuc has been conducting an intense campaign to improve the PDM’s abysmal poll ratings, and is working to undermine the prerogatives of the President. There is no doubt that tensions on the Moldovan political arena will accumulate over the coming months. The upcoming parliamentary elections will decide not only the shape of the current system, but also the business and political future of Vlad Plahotniuc.

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The beginning of the celebrations of the centenary of Ukraine’s independence

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English

January 2018 saw the first celebrations commemorating the centenary of Ukraine’s fight for independence (1917–1921). The first two of these events, commemorating the declaration of independence (22 January 1918) and the battle of Kruty (29 January 1918), were surprisingly small-scale, especially with regard to the participation of Ukraine’s leadership in them. This may mean that the ruling elite has no concept of how to use the centenary to solidify its political position, also in the context of the presidential and parliamentary elections planned for 2019. At the same time, a profound shift in the narrative regarding the fight from a century ago has been evident in the media reports and educational materials published by the Ukrainian Institute for National Remembrance (UINP). The emphasis is no longer placed on the armed struggle and the continuation of the leftist tradition of the government of the Ukrainian People’s Republic; instead, priority is given to the efforts to build a state and create its institutions, including professional armed forces. The anarchist-revolutionary traditions are criticised, and the importance of order and discipline is highlighted.

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(Un)realistic neutrality. Attempts to redefine Belarus’ foreign policy

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

The continuing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, together with the increased tension in relations between Russia and the West, have led the Belarusian authorities to attempt to redefine their country’s foreign policy by stressing neutrality towards the two sides in the conflict. As a result, over the last year or so Belarus has clearly adopted a non-committal stance. Minsk is trying to play the part of a neutral mediator in the hope that this will safeguard it in the event of escalation of tensions between Russia and the West, which is seen as the greatest threat to the country’s security at the present time. Thus Minsk is returning to the notion, discussed in the early 1990s, of Belarus striving for neutrality. Officially, the goal of neutrality is still stated in the Belarusian Constitution. However there are serious limitations to the effectiveness of this new strategy, due to Minsk’s close military alliance with Moscow, and therefore Belarus will not be entirely credible on the international stage as a country that wishes to remain neutral.

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Thaw in Uzbekistan. Reforms by President Mirziyoyev

Author(s): Mariusz Marszewski / Language(s): English

It has been almost two years since the death of the long-serving leader of Uzbekistan President Islam Karimov, and since Shavkat Mirziyoyev took up power (September 2016). The change has had spectacular results, including signs of liberalisation of the previous, extremely authoritarian system of rule, and economic reform, for instance with regard to stimulating growth of small-scale business, and in fact activation of Uzbekistan on the international stage and normalisation of relations with neighbours. Meanwhile, certainly the most important process under way in Uzbekistan is that of consolidation of power by the new president, and a key element of this is dismantling the might enjoyed to date by the National Security Service. The curbing of the position of the National Security Service, which has been successful so far, entails internal restructuring of the state apparatus. The limited liberalisation and opening up to the world are mainly a result of this process.Mirziyoyev has created a new dynamic both internally and in the region. The effects will only become clear in the long term. The outcome of this new situation is uncertain; consolidation of the new president’s power and the ensuing reforms are accompanied by constantly recurring crises which were frozen during Karimov’s rule. There are also external threats – a possibility of return to custodianship of Russia, a country which is fortifying its position, China’s increasing economic dominance, and growing strength of radicals among the Uzbek minority in northern Afghanistan. The emerging processes are therefore proceeding fast, and thus it is hard to determine whether the new Uzbekistan under President Mirziyoyev will prove to be a stable country in which the liberal reforms will continue.

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A stinking business. Environmental issues, protests and big money in the waste business in Russia

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English

In recent months, Moscow oblast has seen a series of social protests against environmental problems caused by municipal waste landfills. The waste disposal sites are overloaded, lack adequate safeguards, emit toxic gases and contaminate the groundwater with harmful effluent. The situation is most severe in Moscow oblast because the capital city generates the largest volumes of waste; however, the problem itself extends beyond environmental concerns into the economic and social spheres. Waste management in Russia is marked by notorious overloading of legal waste disposal sites and the emergence of illegal waste dumps, inadequate waste disposal practices leading to air pollution and groundwater contamination which affect local residents, and bad practices by businesses with links to President Vladimir Putin which have monopolised the waste collection sector.

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Crisis in Turkmenistan. A test for China’s policy in the region

Author(s): Jakub Jakóbowski,Mariusz Marszewski / Language(s): English

The currency crisis, caused by the collapse in gas prices, has turned into the most serious social and political crisis in the history of Turkmenistan. The government in Ashgabat has passed the burden of the economic problems onto the population, suspending the convertibility of the manat and dismantling the extensive social security system. The drastic reduction in the standard of living of Turkmenistan’s population has undermined the stability of the regime. The depletion of Turkmenistan’s foreign exchange reserves could bring an end to the monumental state investment programme which – together with the social security system – is the main source of the regime’s legitimacy. The current dynamics of the crisis are fully dependent on China, the sole recipient of Turkmenistan’s gas (receiving more than 90% of total gas exports) and Ashgabat’s main creditor. The terms of the Chinese-Turkmen contracts (apparently linking gas prices with oil prices) is leading to a drain of Turkmen resources and reducing the inflow of foreign currency. China may be faced with the need to stabilise the economy of Turkmenistan. In the absence of any rescue actions, there is a considerable risk of the collapse of the Turkmen state. However, any greater involvement by China could mean a violation of the Chinese-Russian modus vivendi in the region. Moscow could take advantage of the crisis to rebuild its influence in Ashgabat, and include Turkmenistan within its own political integration projects within the region, resuming gas cooperation and offering military assistance to stabilise the regime.

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