Series:PISM Bulletin

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Turkey Towards Afghanistan

Turkey Towards Afghanistan

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; Afghanistan; foreign policy; security;

Turkey’s negotiations with the Taliban aim to strengthen the country’s political influence in Afghanistan, hoping that would improve its international position, help develop its strategy towards Asia, and limit the influx of Afghan refugees. Cooperation with Turkey on Afghanistan could help the EU better manage migration from the latter.

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Biden Administration Names Climate Change a Priority National Security Issue

Biden Administration Names Climate Change a Priority National Security Issue

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Biden; administration, climate; policy; change; national security;

A new set of Biden administration strategic documents confirms that the one of the U.S. priorities is limiting the harm and risk of climate change to its national security. Especially novel are the topics of two of the reports, one by the U.S. intelligence community and a second by the Defense Department. They imply a new approach to U.S. strategic planning, which likely will be reflected in the work of the U.S. military commands in Europe and in the American position on the NATO Strategic Concept.

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ASEAN in U.S. Foreign Policy

ASEAN in U.S. Foreign Policy

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: ASEAN; USA; foreign policy; security; economy; Asia;

In recent months, the U.S. has sought to strengthen relations with ASEAN countries, as evidenced by President Joe Biden’s participation in the U.S.-ASEAN virtual summit and by the defence secretary’s and vice president’s visits to the region. The U.S. wants to strengthen its position in the Indo-Pacific and limit China’s influence in the region. Key for the U.S. will be to present a comprehensive and long-term offer to the ASEAN members, for example, in the security and economic spheres. The EU can expand on the U.S. approach to broader cooperation in areas that are important to it, such as the stability of sea routes.

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North Korea’s Foreign Policy Towards South Korea and the U.S.

North Korea’s Foreign Policy Towards South Korea and the U.S.

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: North Korea; South Korea; USA; foreign policy;

In recent months, North Korea has intensified missile tests, while signalling the possibility of resuming talks with South Korea and the U.S. These signals of openness to dialogue indicate that North Korea wants the next South Korean president, who will be elected in March 2022, to be favourable to the inter-Korean dialogue. In turn, the demonstration of military capabilities serves to strengthen North Korea’s position ahead of possible negotiations with the U.S. to convince it to ease sanctions. The difficult domestic situation will not persuade North Korea to take a more conciliatory stance in the talks, however.

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Possibilities of Halting Oil and Gas Transit via Belarus

Possibilities of Halting Oil and Gas Transit via Belarus

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus; oil; gas; transport; economy; halting transit;

On 11 November, Alexander Lukashenka threatened to halt gas transit to the EU, and then on 17 November Belarus restricted oil shipments to Poland due to unplanned maintenance. These actions are intended to discourage the EU from imposing further sanctions on the Belarusian regime over the border crisis it has caused. Concessions by the EU would be seen as weakness and provoke Belarus to escalate the situation on the border. Threats to stop the supply of gas, and possibly oil, by Belarus to the EU are very unlikely to materialise.

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The Moldovan Gas Crisis: Causes and Consequences

The Moldovan Gas Crisis: Causes and Consequences

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski,Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Moldova; gas; energy; policy; crisis; Russia; foreign policy;

In October, Russia created an energy crisis in Moldova to stop the reform of its gas sector and to undermine public trust in its pro-EU authorities. Moldova survived the crisis with the support of the EU and Ukraine. On 29 October, however, Moldova concluded a new five-year gas supply contract with Gazprom at the cost of postponing energy market reforms. Poland and Moldova’s EU allies can use this time to help immunise the local energy sector against further politically motivated Russian pressure.

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Ukraine’s Foreign Policy Strategy

Ukraine’s Foreign Policy Strategy

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; strategy; foreign policy; Russia; EU; NATO;

The president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, approved in August this year the first Foreign Policy Strategy in the country’s history. According to the document, Ukraine’s main goal is membership in the EU and NATO and an end to the conflict with Russia. Like in the National Security Strategy, Ukraine included Poland in the second group of strategic partners. Cooperation with Poland is to be deepened and developed, not only bilaterally but also as part of multilateral formats in the region.

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Belarus in Turkey’s Foreign Policy

Belarus in Turkey’s Foreign Policy

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; Belarus; foreign policy; Poland; migrations;

Turkey’s actions towards Belarus show that the country plays a greater role in Turkish foreign policy than bilateral relations might suggest. It would be beneficial for Turkey’s Western allies, including Poland, to take this factor into account in the dialogue with their Turkish partner on the political use of the migration through the Belarusian-Polish border by Alexander Lukashenka’s regime and on the political situation in Belarus.

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The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on International Migration

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on International Migration

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic; migration;

The COVID-19 pandemic has halted the rising trend of international migration. It has disproportionately affected irregular migrants and refugees, as well as the economies of countries where economic migrants play a major role. The return to the pre-pandemic state is hampered by disparities in access to vaccines, different regulations on arrivals to many countries, a lack of coordination in the recognition of vaccination certificates, and in other areas. The EU can support the development of global standards for accepting certificates. It may also be interested in resuming discussions on changes to international agreements regulating migration and assistance to refugees.

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The New German Government’s European Policy

The New German Government’s European Policy

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; European policy; new government; closer integration; EU; foreign policy;

In the coalition agreement unveiled on 24 November, the Social Democrats, Liberals, and Greens express resolute support for closer European integration. The new government will likely be more active than outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel’s cabinet in initiating and shaping community decisions. The coalition announced ambitious climate policy and support for boosting the EU’s strategic sovereignty and establishing new sources of revenue. The prospect for a deal between the Union’s northern and southern members on reform of fiscal rules has improved.

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Road to Nowhere: Reform of the United States Supreme Court

Road to Nowhere: Reform of the United States Supreme Court

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Supreme Court; reform; Democratic Party;

Progressive members of the Democratic Party in the United States Congress are striving to expand the Supreme Court. After President Donald Trump appointed three justices, the conservatives gained the upper hand on the court. In the opinion of the progressives, this threatens to block flagship postulates of social reforms in the U.S. and exacerbate ideological divides. President Joe Biden has not been in favour of expanding the court, fearing following conservative administrations would just do the same. This internal party dispute may further weaken the Democrats’ chances of maintaining a majority in the elections to both chambers of Congress in 2022.

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Implementation of EU Trade Agreements with Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine: Results and Challenges

Implementation of EU Trade Agreements with Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine: Results and Challenges

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Georgia; Moldova; Ukraine; trade agreement; implementation;

The pace of the realisation of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (DCFTAs) by Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries associated with the EU varies. Most progress has been made in relation to trade in goods and the harmonisation of standards for industrial and food products with the EU. In other areas, such as the liberalisation of services or competitiveness, the countries differ in the implementation of the provisions. The DCFTAs with Moldova and Ukraine have brought the most benefits, and to a lesser extent, the one with Georgia. To further increase trade, it is crucial to speed up the adoption of EU standards by enterprises, and in this area, the Union can increase its assistance.

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Strategic Patience: French Interests and the Dialogue with Russia

Strategic Patience: French Interests and the Dialogue with Russia

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; Russia; dialogue; foreign policy; strategy; security;

Concerns about Mali’s plans to invite the private military company Wagner Group for security operations, the forced migration hybrid attack by Belarus on the EU’s borders, and the aggravation of the situation in eastern Ukraine have renewed a discussion in France on relations with Russia. Despite warnings from some experts, President Emmanuel Macron believes that direct dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin is the only way to resolve the disputes. The French authorities are avoiding a more resolute policy towards Russia, fearing the reaction of the pro-Russia opposition, the weakening of France’s position towards the U.S., and the growing importance of NATO.

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The Future of NATO Crisis-Response Operations: Lessons from Kosovo

The Future of NATO Crisis-Response Operations: Lessons from Kosovo

Author(s): Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kosovo; Serbia; NATO; crisis response; future; lessons; KFOR;

The September incidents on the Kosovo-Serbia border, which ended with an effective NATO and EU response, show that developing cooperation with partners is crucial to the effectiveness of the Alliance’s involvement in stabilisation operations. The experiences and lessons from the NATO KFOR mission should influence the discussion on the role of crisis-response operations in the Alliance’s future strategy. The chaotic end of the mission in Afghanistan undermined the image of NATO as an organisation capable of conducting effective non-Article 5 operations. KFOR has, however, demonstrated that the Alliance can act effectively in cooperation with the EU.

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Russian and Belarusian Disinformation and Propaganda in the Context of the Polish-Belarusian Border Crisis

Russian and Belarusian Disinformation and Propaganda in the Context of the Polish-Belarusian Border Crisis

Author(s): Filip Bryjka,Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Belarus; Poland; border; disinformation; propaganda; EU; NATO;

Russia and Belarus are consistent in their narrative regarding the recent border crisis. They accuse EU and NATO members, mainly Poland and Lithuania, of failing to respect international law and lacking humanity. This is aimed at discrediting Euro-Atlantic structures and weakening Polish and Lithuanian influence on NATO and EU eastern policy. The Belarusian-Russian propaganda particularly invokes charges of hypocrisy and “double standards” on the part of the EU, which challenges the management and resolution of the border crisis.

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COVID-19’s Impact on the South Korean Economy

COVID-19’s Impact on the South Korean Economy

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic; South Korea; economy; impact;

South Korea’s economy probably will not avoid recession this year, but it will be less severe than in other highly developed countries. The deteriorating economic situation in South Korea’s main trading partners - China, the U.S., and the EU - has weakened its own economic indicators. Despite the pandemic, South Korean companies continue foreign investments as planned, including in Central Europe. Rising tensions between China and the U.S. may strengthen the investment commitment of South Korean companies in Southeast Asia..

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Memory and Politics: The Importance of the Treaty of Trianon for Hungary

Memory and Politics: The Importance of the Treaty of Trianon for Hungary

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: politics; memory; Hungary; Trianon Treaty;

4 June marks the centenary of the signing of the Treaty of Trianon, the most important historical event of the 20th century for Hungarian politics. In the public’s perception, it is still a lively and traumatic history. The source of this is, on the one hand, the violation of the national community by the treaty, which has left deep marks on the social consciousness of Hungarians, and, on the other hand, the memory of the Trianon is fuelled and used for political purposes in both Hungary and neighbouring countries.

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The European Deterrence Initiative Record and Perspectives

The European Deterrence Initiative Record and Perspectives

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Europe; USA; military policy; capabilities; deterrence;

In recent years, the U.S. has considerably strengthened its military capabilities in Europe, mainly through the European Deterrence Initiative (EDI). They will not be weakened by planned cuts in EDI funding. Despite the negative implications, radical changes will not result from the transfer of funding for infrastructure improvements in Europe to finance the construction of the border wall with Mexico. Uncertainty over the future shape of the U.S. military presence in Europe is related, however, to the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the U.S. defence budget.

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The Gulf Cooperation Council and the Pandemic

The Gulf Cooperation Council and the Pandemic

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Keywords: GCC; Gulf; UAE; COVID-19; cooperation;

The fight against the spread of the coronavirus in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has forced cooperation between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, which were in conflict within the GCC. At the same time, the UAE took advantage of other countries’ need for support in countering COVID-19 to strengthen relations with China, Iran, and Syria, among others. The UAE’s activity emphasizes its ambition for domination of the region, which may lead to a new dispute within the GCC between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

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France and China: Post-Pandemic Relations

France and China: Post-Pandemic Relations

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; China; COVID-19; pandemics; post-pandemic relations; foreign policy;

China’s lack of transparency in informing the world about COVID-19 at the early stage of the epidemic and attempts to pressure some EU states have awakened doubts in France about the benefits of bilateral relations with this country. The French government still wants to develop beneficial economic cooperation but at the same time will try to decrease the dependency of some industries on China. It will also aim to elaborate a common EU policy towards China. The latter will demand France consider the interests of other Member States in economic and industrial policy.

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