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“Next Generation EU”: Economic Recovery through Shared Debt

Author(s): Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; economy; policy; development; strategy; Agriculture; Poland; financial markets;

The new proposal for the 2021-2027 EU budget includes debt issuance by the European Commission (EC) to support economic recovery in the Union. The Next Generation EU mechanism aims to raise €750 billion from financial markets. However, the consent of all Member States will be required. The main points of contention are how the funds will be distributed - in the form of grants or loans - and conditionality for the support. The proposal takes into account the increased funding for the Just Transition Fund or the Common Agricultural Policy for Poland.

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Ireland at a Crossroads: Forming a Coalition in the Shadow of COVID-19

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ireland; crossroads; COVID-19; pandemics; coalition; foreign policy;

In the Republic of Ireland’s general election of 8 February, the left-wing nationalist party Sinn Fein (SF) won an unprecedented victory. However, the fragmentation of the lower house of parliament, the Dail Eireann, made it difficult to form a new government. The beginning of the pandemic, which roughly coincided with the election, temporarily extended the term of Fine Gael’s centre-right cabinet led by Taoiseach (prime minister) Leo Varadkar. The negotiations of his party with the centre-right Fianna Fail and the Greens lead to the creation of an “extended grand coalition”. Consequently, Sinn Fein would take over the role of the official opposition. The election results increase the significance of the problem of reunification of the island in Irish politics and in the EU-UK Brexit negotiations.

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The Importance of the Western Balkans in China’s Foreign Policy

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; Western Balkans; foreign policy; COVID-19; economic policy;

China’s cooperation with the Western Balkans through the “17+1” format and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), among others, is primarily political. In the economic sphere, Chinese investments are to a large extent only declarations, and trade is marginal in comparison to cooperation with the EU or others. China’s goals are to gain political influence in future EU countries and limit their cooperation with the U.S. Competition with China in the region requires more intense EU-U.S. cooperation, made more difficult by the pandemic.

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U.S. Policy in the Arctic

Author(s): Paweł Markiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; policy; Arctic; foreign policy; economy; security;

The Arctic has become another contested area between the U.S., Russia, and China. The region’s growing importance for global trade and American security means the U.S. goal is largely to maintain freedom of navigation in the Arctic. For this reason, the Trump administration strives to increase American capacities to operate in the Arctic. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will delay implementing these plans; nevertheless, they will be achieved in the long term and the U.S. will also expect support in the Arctic from NATO allies.

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NATO Strategic Reflection: How to Augment the Political Dimension and Consultations

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; security; consultations; politics; foreign policy;

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has set up a group of experts whose task is to develop recommendations on strengthening the political dimension and NATO consultations. The immediate reason for this decision was the unilateral actions of member states that might have a negative effect on the security of the Alliance. Therefore, a group of experts should primarily look for solutions to reduce the risk of such activities in the future. To this end, it is necessary to strengthen the specific dimension of consultations to increase the chances of coordinating allied policy towards the Middle East and North Africa, and even towards China.

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Back to Growth: Germany’s Third Support Programme for the Economy

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; economy; economic policy; third support programme;

In the next phase to counter the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, Germany focuses on a quick recovery of demand. This is to be achieved, among others, by the reduction of VAT, support for families with children, and incentives for companies to invest. Given the size and connections of the German economy, the programme may ease the way out of the crisis for the entire European Union. However, it may increase the asymmetries, too: few countries can afford the same level of support for their own economies.

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Political Tensions and the Failure to Curb COVID-19 in Brazil

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Brazil; COVID-19; politics; tensions;

The spread rate of COVID-19 in Brazil is increasing and the policies of the federal government, headed by President Jair Bolsonaro, do not contribute to a slowdown in the pandemic. Bolsonaro downplays the threat and rejects restrictive measures as he prioritises support for the economy. He has clashed with state governors who introduced restrictions and with the Federal Supreme Court, which defended their autonomy. The deteriorating situation in Brazil amid the pandemic and political situation diminish Bolsonaro’s chances of re-election in 2022 and may strain his government’s relations with EU partners.

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Eastern Partnership Policy Beyond 2020

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

Keywords: EC; European Commission; Eastern Partnership; policy; strategy; EaP; EU;

In March, the European Commission presented the Eastern Partnership policy beyond 2020. It maintains the current direction of the European Union’s actions towards its eastern neighbourhood. The vagueness of the document indicates a lack of unanimity within the EU regarding the development of the initiative and raises concerns about a lack of further strengthening of cooperation between EaP and EU countries. The EaP conference in June will set the course of action for the coming years. It will be a challenge for Poland in this period to promote the greater involvement of EaP countries through the “more for more” principle that rewards the leaders in cooperation.

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Italian Economic Recovery Plan

Author(s): Maciej Pawłowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Italy; economy; recovery; COVID-19; pandemic; plan;

Italy has started to rebuild its economy, which has fallen into deep recession because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The government wants to achieve this goal through infrastructure investments, export and tourism support, and temporary legalisation of stay and employment of migrants. Part of these activities will be financed with funds from the new EU budget. The government’s economic recovery plan also presents an opportunity to reform the country, which increases the potential of an agreement on the shape of the EU budget, the multiannual financial framework (MFF) 2021-2027.

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Ukraine’s Foreign Policy in President Zelensky’s First Year

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; foreign policy; Volodymyr Zelensky; EU; economy; crisis; COVID-19;

The foreign policy of Ukraine during the presidency of Volodymyr Zelensky is characterised by the continuation of integration with NATO and the EU and the aim to end the conflict in Donbas. Compared to his predecessor, Petro Poroshenko, Zelensky takes a more pragmatic stance, confirmed by greater flexibility during talks with Russia. However, Ukraine’s concessions to Russia have not resulted in progress in resolving the conflict. Sectoral integration with the EU may, in turn, be delayed by the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Joe Biden and Progressive Democrats

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Joe Biden; USA: politics; democrats; minorities;

Joe Biden has secured the Democratic Party nomination in the November presidential election. During the campaign, he established cooperation with politicians with more leftist views. To acquire the widest possible electorate, he is adopting their demands regarding healthcare, social care, and climate policy. This leaves him a lot of freedom in formulating foreign policy. The ongoing “Black Lives Matter” protests in the U.S. may force Biden to expand his cooperation with politicians representing minorities.

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First is the Economy: The Importance of This Year’s Session of the Chinese Parliament

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak,Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: economy; China; parliament; economic policy; foreign policy; international law; EU market;

The session of the National People’s Congress (NPC) that ended on 28 May focused on improving the economic situation in China. Prime Minister Li Keqiang pointed out the stabilisation of the job market and raising the standard of living of Chinese as the most important goals. NPC decisions regarding Hong Kong and accusations that the U.S. is using the pandemic as a political tool confirm that the PRC sees the problems in the United States and the ongoing presidential campaign there as an opportunity to strengthen China’s international position and divert attention away from its difficult economic situation. The European Union will not, however, tighten its policy towards China because it wants to cooperate with it in solving global problems. The EU will still pursue assertive policy as part of the defence of the EU market and international law.

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Role of Tracking Applications in the Fight Against COVID-19 in the EU

Author(s): Marta Makowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; COVID-19; tracking; law; tracking applications; personal data; privacy;

As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, Member States began developing mobile applications to track people-to-people contacts. They are intended to help contain the expected increase in the number of cases as European economies re-open and the free movement of people within the community is restored. However, the role of these applications in fighting the pandemic in the EU will be limited, in part because of the law on personal data processing that protects the citizens’ privacy.

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Prospects for the Development of EU Health Policy after the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic; EU; health policy; development;

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed both the weaknesses of Member States’ health systems and the limitations of the EU’s mechanism to respond to cross-border health threats. Strengthening the EU’s resistance to health crises will become an important point in budget negotiations and the deliberations of the planned Conference on the Future of Europe. Although there are some supporters of granting the EU greater powers in this area, the changes will most likely be limited to increasing the resources of European health institutions and improving the mechanisms of cooperation between states in order to better respond to future crises.

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Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Central Asia

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Keywords: COVID-19; Central Asia; consequences; migrations;

The economic crisis in Central Asia resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic will degrade the security situation in the region. Among the consequences of the recession will be the intensification of anti-government protests and increased ethnic tensions, added migration pressure from the region and greater activity of terrorist organisations. By using Russia’s passivity towards the pandemic, China will seek to increase its influence in the sphere of security in Central Asia.

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Russia’s Arctic Policy

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; arctic; policy; foreign policy; energy; military; logistics;

Russia views the Arctic as a contested area with the U.S. and a place of competition with China. It regards any loss of its dominant position as the most important challenge in the Arctic region. To counteract it, Russia develops energy, military, and logistics infrastructure in the region. Although the role of transport in the Arctic, along the Northern Sea Route (NSR), is limited for now, the increased Russian military presence in the region is already a challenge for the security of NATO countries.

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Chinese Discourse on NATO

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; China; discourse; USA; security; foreign policy;

Chinese experts’ interest in NATO has been growing for a year. The reason is the debate on China that began in the Alliance last year. China treats NATO as part of its rivalry with the U.S., vindicated by Chinese analysts’ emphasis on divergences between members, critical assessments of U.S. NATO policy and their conciliatory approach to European members. The continuation of the Alliance debate on China, including recognizing it as a threat, may lead the latter to intensify efforts to widen the divisions and seek closer cooperation with Russia.

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Political and Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Romania

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Romania; COVID-19; pandemic; politics; policy; economy; consequences;

On 16 June, a Romania’s “state of alarm” was prolonged for a month by the Ludovic Orban minority government. The pandemic has prevented his National Liberal Party (PNL) from holding early parliamentary elections, which, given the popularity of the formation, would be expected to allow it majority rule. The largest opposition force, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), could build a coalition in the current parliament but refuses to take power during the crisis. The government has provided temporary support for Romanian companies and announced an economic reconstruction programme that may incorporate aspects of the European Commission’s Next Generation EU initiative. The consequences of the pandemic will hamper Romania’s adoption of the euro.

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Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Ukraine’s Economy

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: COVID-19; Ukraine; economy; impact;

The Ukrainian economy will face a recession in 2020, the scale of which will depend on the fluid pandemic situation at home and abroad. Macro-financial assistance from the IMF and the EU will be crucial to stabilise the economy. To begin a rapid economic recovery, Ukraine needs structural reforms, but implementation of them is unlikely.

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U.S. Enacts Sanctions to Stop ICC Proceedings

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; ICC; criminal law; court; ICC proceedings; Afghanistan; Palestine;

An executive order issued by U.S. President Donald Trump on 11 June imposes sanctions on those engaged in the activities of the International Criminal Court (ICC) directed against members of U.S. or allied personnel. It is a blow to international criminal justice that will impede or may even prevent the ICC from investigating crimes in Afghanistan and Palestine. The sanctions can also potentially affect Polish citizens or entities, creating tension in Polish-American relations.

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Series:PISM Bulletin

“Next Generation EU”: Economic Recovery through Shared Debt

Ireland at a Crossroads: Forming a Coalition in the Shadow of COVID-19

The Importance of the Western Balkans in China’s Foreign Policy

U.S. Policy in the Arctic

NATO Strategic Reflection: How to Augment the Political Dimension and Consultations

Back to Growth: Germany’s Third Support Programme for the Economy

Political Tensions and the Failure to Curb COVID-19 in Brazil

Eastern Partnership Policy Beyond 2020

Italian Economic Recovery Plan

Ukraine’s Foreign Policy in President Zelensky’s First Year

Joe Biden and Progressive Democrats

First is the Economy: The Importance of This Year’s Session of the Chinese Parliament

Role of Tracking Applications in the Fight Against COVID-19 in the EU

Prospects for the Development of EU Health Policy after the COVID-19 Pandemic

Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Central Asia

Russia’s Arctic Policy

Chinese Discourse on NATO

Political and Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Romania

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Ukraine’s Economy

U.S. Enacts Sanctions to Stop ICC Proceedings