Series:PISM Bulletin

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Belarus-Russia: Towards Gradual Integration

Belarus-Russia: Towards Gradual Integration

Author(s): Jakub Benedyczak,Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Belarus; integration; foreign policy;

The political crisis following the presidential elections in Belarus has meant that Alexander Lukashenka, in struggling to maintain power, has had to decide to deepen integration with Russia, contrary to his former position. However, to not further antagonise Belarusian society and strain the Belarusian state budget, Russia will spread this process out over time, primarily through the use of the provisions of the Treaty on the Creation of the Union State of Russia and Belarus. The progressive integration of both countries will create political and economic challenges for neighbouring countries, including Poland.

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The Dispute over Nord Stream 2 after the Navalny Poisoning

The Dispute over Nord Stream 2 after the Navalny Poisoning

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: energy; gas; foreign policy; Nord Stream 2; dispute; Alexei Navalny;

The assassination attempt on Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has sparked a heated debate within the EU on the rationale behind Nord Stream 2 (NS2) and the political implications of its construction. Despite the growing criticism (e.g., in Germany, a key partner of the project), it is almost certain that the German leaders will maintain their support for the 95%-completed pipeline. Therefore, U.S. sanctions remain the main threat to the project.

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On the Training Areas of the Union State of Belarus and Russia

On the Training Areas of the Union State of Belarus and Russia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Belarus; foreign policy; security; post-election crisis;

In August and September, Russia and Belarus conducted intensive military exercises. In the case of Belarus, the organisation of some of them was dictated by the post-election crisis and the desire to demonstrate that its military is ready to respond to external threats. In the case of Russia, these were planned exercises, which functioned as another signal to neighbouring countries and NATO about the high capabilities of its armed forces. Most of the manoeuvres were based on scenarios aimed at Alliance countries.

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Consequences of the Normalisation of Relations between Israel and Gulf States

Consequences of the Normalisation of Relations between Israel and Gulf States

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; Gulf states; relations; normalisation; consequences; UAE;

The normalisation of relations with Israel undertaken by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain is one of the most important processes affecting the political situation in the Middle East. The process weakens the Palestinian leadership and strengthens the bloc of countries competing with Iran and Turkey, which may increase tensions in the region. The level of involvement of U.S. diplomacy and the lack of opposition from Arab League (AL) members indicate that Israeli-Arab normalisation - beneficial from the EU perspective - will deepen.

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The End of Lithuania’s Cautious Friendship with Belarus

The End of Lithuania’s Cautious Friendship with Belarus

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus; foreign policy; Lithuania; Poland;

Until the post-election protests in Belarus, Lithuania’s policy towards that country had been characterised by pragmatism. Since then Lithuanian policy has changed to being increasingly involved - supporting the opposition and becoming one of the main proponents of the democratisation of Belarus. Such a position carries the risk of economic losses, but it is limited and Lithuania includes it in the possible costs of its actions. Lithuania’s relations with Belarus are conditioned by Russia’s policy, perceived as a direct threat to Lithuanian security. The development of events in Belarus strengthens, in turn, the cooperation between Poland and Lithuania.

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The Growing Problem of Disinformation in Latin America

The Growing Problem of Disinformation in Latin America

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Latin America; Disinformation; growing problem; security; StratCom;

In the last few years, Latin America has seen a surge in disinformation, used as a tool in an internal political rivalry and influencing the public debate. This process is creating favourable conditions for Russian, Chinese, and Iranian state media - all gradually increasing their reach in the region - which use manipulation of information, for example, to discredit democratic states, especially the U.S., but also EU members. The growing scale of disinformation threatens democracy in Latin America. The EU could consider expanding its StratCom analysis of disinformation campaigns to monitor foreign state media content in the region.

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Perspectives on Polish-Ukrainian Cooperation in the Natural Gas Sector

Perspectives on Polish-Ukrainian Cooperation in the Natural Gas Sector

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk,Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: energy; natural gas; Poland; Ukraine; cooperation;

For years, Ukraine had been dependent on gas imports from Russia and affected by corruption and inefficient management, among other problems. Thanks to some reforms and adapting EU rules, the Ukrainian authorities improved the transparency of the domestic gas market. For Poland, it has meant new opportunities for cooperation, but at the same time Polish entities face new challenges, including competition from companies from other states.

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Africa in EU Policy: Old Challenges Hamper a New Partnership

Africa in EU Policy: Old Challenges Hamper a New Partnership

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep,Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; policy; Africa; old challenges; foreign policy; partnerships; AU;

One of the priorities of the new European Commission is to strengthen the partnership with Africa. However, the cooperation proposals prepared for the EU-Africa summit planned for October are not sufficient to solve the problems in these relations. The postponement of the summit to 2021 offers an opportunity to correct the EU’s approach, including increasing the role of the African Union (AU) in shaping the common strategy and strengthening the partnership, which is in Poland’s interest.

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Parliamentary Elections in Myanmar: A Challenge for EU Policy

Parliamentary Elections in Myanmar: A Challenge for EU Policy

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; policy; Myanmar; parliamentary election;

The parliamentary elections in Myanmar on 8 November are likely to be won by the currently ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi. However, the party will probably receive fewer votes than it did in 2015. A weaker electoral mandate and further isolation from Western countries will strengthen the military’s role, weaken democratisation, and will be conducive to increasing China’s influence. To prevent this, the EU may consider resuming cooperation with the civilian authorities despite accusations that it is persecuting the Rohingya minority. Greater engagement by the EU in Myanmar and closer cooperation with partners in Asia may give the Union more influence over the situation in that country than continued isolation of Aung San Suu Kyi.

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Harmonisation of EU Space Policy

Harmonisation of EU Space Policy

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; space policy; harmonisation; ESA;

Due to high costs and needed infrastructure, building space capabilities in Europe requires the cooperation of many entities. In the coming years, the coordination of EU and European Space Agency (ESA) activities will be key to the development of the European space sector. It is in Poland’s interest to increase the funding of its research centres and support the participation of Polish enterprises in projects implemented under the EU and ESA.

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Ostpolitik at a Crossroads: Germany and Russia after the Poisoning of Navalny

Ostpolitik at a Crossroads: Germany and Russia after the Poisoning of Navalny

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ostpolitik; Crossroads; Germany; Russia; Navalny; poisoning;

The poisoning of Alexei Navalny is a challenge for the German government’s policy towards Russia, which combines criticism of human rights violations and international law while maintaining cooperation to guarantee German economic and security interests. Although Germany’s response to the attack on the Russian opposition leader so far does not indicate a change in strategy, additional aggressive actions by the Russian authorities may lead gradually to a new course.

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Anything but Lockdown: Germany in the Face of the Second Wave of the Pandemic

Anything but Lockdown: Germany in the Face of the Second Wave of the Pandemic

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; second wave; pandemic; COVID-19; lockdown; policy;

A rapid increase in the number of infections has prompted federal and provincial authorities in Germany to introduce new restrictions. They are designed to prevent local rates from exceeding 50 infections per 100,000 residents. The effectiveness of these actions will be of key importance for the condition of the economy. It will also affect the final balance sheet of the grand coalition rule and the course of next year’s election campaign to the Bundestag.

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The Main Challenges for China’s Internal Situation after the First Phase of the Pandemic

The Main Challenges for China’s Internal Situation after the First Phase of the Pandemic

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; pandemic; COVID-19; foreign policy;

China faces rising debt and unemployment problems worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic and U.S. restrictions. The economic difficulties spur dissatisfaction in society and the party apparatus. The solution to the problems includes increasing the share of the internal market in GDP growth. At the same time, the Chinese authorities are strengthening their rhetoric of rivalry with the West, which they blame for the difficulties. The central authorities also have tightened control over party officials. The anti-Western attitude along with the continual centralisation of power will make it impossible to compromise with the EU, for example, on increasing access to the Chinese market.

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The Most Important Challenges in China’s Foreign Policy after the First Phase of the Pandemic

The Most Important Challenges in China’s Foreign Policy after the First Phase of the Pandemic

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; pandemic; COVID-19; challenges; foreign policy;

China’s rivalry with the U.S. is intensifying. New American sanctions threaten, among others, Huawei’s global position. As a result of China’s aggressive foreign policy, relations with the EU and Australia have worsened, and the border conflict with India has intensified. To counter these failures and re-build their image, the Chinese authorities are trying to shift the responsibility for the problems to the U.S., strengthening anti-Western rhetoric, and presenting the world with new multilateral initiatives, such as one related to data security. With China’s foreign policy being idealogised, any successful cooperation with the EU on climate matters is unrealistic.

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NATO in the Face of Climate Change: Expectations and Opportunities

NATO in the Face of Climate Change: Expectations and Opportunities

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; security; migration; conflicts; policy;

Climate change exacerbates security threats to NATO states such as natural disasters, irregular migration, and local conflicts. It is also increasingly perceived by Alliance publics as one of the biggest civilisational challenges. Therefore, NATO’s commitment to combating the causes and effects of climate change will be an important element of strengthening public support for the Alliance and its political cohesion.

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Palestine in Turkey's Foreign Policy

Palestyna w polityce zagranicznej Turcji

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Turkey; Palestine; foreign policy;

Turcja umacnia się w roli głównego politycznego patrona Palestyńczyków na Bliskim Wschodzie. Jej politykę wobec Palestyny warunkują napięcia w relacjach z Izraelem, chęć odgrywania roli lidera świata islamu oraz rosnący rozdźwięk między palestyńskimi władzami i ich arabskimi sojusznikami. Swoje zaangażowanie Turcja będzie wykorzystywała w rywalizacji regionalnej. Sprzeciw wobec izraelsko-arabskiej normalizacji i bliskie związki z Hamasem będą się negatywnie odbijały na stosunkach Turcji z USA.

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Mali after the Coup

Mali after the Coup

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: Mali; Coup; criminality; jihadism;

In August, a group of officers overthrew the president of Mali. This further complicated the fragile situation in the country. While the military has delegated some power to a transitional civilian government, it wants to retain influence over major decisions. The EU’s priority remains the strengthening of Malian institutions so that the state ceases to be a seedbed of jihadism and criminality that threatens Europe’s neighbourhood.

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Final Days before the U.S. Presidential Election

Final Days before the U.S. Presidential Election

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; president; elections; COVID-19; Trump; Biden;

The U.S. presidential election is 3 November, but millions of Americans have already voted. The fear of COVID-19 and strong support of their chosen candidate from the early stage of the campaign prompted voters to participate in early voting. While Democratic challenger Joe Biden is indicated as the likely winner, it is possible that the polls do not reflect Donald Trump’s actual chances of re-election. At the same time, the president has signalled that he might not concede defeat because of what he has described as a fraudulent process of votes by post. The probability is high of political instability until the next president is sworn in January 2021.

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Dialogue Above All: France on Russia after the Navalny Poisoning

Dialogue Above All: France on Russia after the Navalny Poisoning

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Alexei Navalny; poisoning; Belarus; political crisis; France;

France does not want the poisoning of Alexei Navalny to influence its policy towards Russia. By adopting a conciliatory attitude, France is trying to keep Russia from isolation in its relations with the EU. In exchange, it expects Russia’s cooperation in ending the war in Ukraine, resolving the political crisis in Belarus, and containing Turkish expansionism. Russia has responded with mixed signals, indicating again that it is an unreliable partner.

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The Role of the Economy in the U.S. Presidential Campaign

The Role of the Economy in the U.S. Presidential Campaign

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Economy; USA; president; elections; campaign; Biden; Trump;

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the U.S. economy hard, including causing high unemployment. This weakens the incumbent president, Donald Trump, and increases challenger Joe Biden's chances of victory. For the EU, a Biden presidency may mean, for example, an easing of trade disputes with the U.S. and cooperation on climate protection. However, whichever wins, Biden or Donald Trump, the U.S. will pose a challenge to the EU and European companies, which may find it difficult to compete with the high level of support of U.S. companies.

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