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The Military Dimension of the Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Keywords: Nagorno-Karabakh conflict; military policy; security; Armenia; Azerbaijan;

Azerbaijan’s military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) ended with the signing on 9 November of a truce with Armenia. The effectiveness of the offensive resulted from the large-scale use of combat drones, which significantly supported Special Forces. The defeat of the Armenian forces came from errors in defence, the disproportionate weaponry used by Azerbaijan, the lack of adequate electronic warfare systems, and an insufficient counterintelligence shield.

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Reform of the Union Civil Protection Mechanism During the Pandemic

Author(s): Aleksandra Kozioł / Language(s): English

Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic; civil protection; UCPM; EU;

The COVID-19 pandemic showed the unpreparedness of Union structures to react quickly in the face of large-scale crises. As a consequence, the Member States launched an initiative to strengthen the Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM). It is important that in the coming years the EU not only increases its reserve of strategic resources but also improves the mechanisms of threat detection and analysis. It is in Poland’s interest to strengthen the crisis-response capacity at the EU level, for example, by expanding national response pool.

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Prospects for Unification Talks in Cyprus

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Cyprus; unification; talks; TRNS; EU; foreign policy;

At the beginning of November, Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders met for the first time after the presidential election in the de facto state of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Politicians have declared their willingness to return to the reunification talks, but a compromise is unlikely. As a consequence, the new president of the TRNC, supported by Turkey, will strive to solve the Cyprus problem by creating two independent states. This poses a serious challenge to the European Union, which advocates the unification of Cyprus as a federal state.

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“Russian Truce”: The Tense Future of Nagorno-Karabakh

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Keywords: Nagorno-Karabakh conflict; Russia; truce; Armenia; Azerbaijan;

The truce ending the armed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) constitutes the capitulation of Armenia and effectively divides the disputed territory on the terms of the victorious Azerbaijan. However, it does not end the Armenian-Azeri conflict, which is both territorial and ethnic. The truce is a diplomatic success for Russia, which forced both sides of the conflict to cease fighting and brought its own troops into the NK. The EU and Poland may consider increasing humanitarian aid for the victims.

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Water Shortages in Occupied Crimea

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Crimea; occupation; water; shortage; Ukraine; North Crimean Canal; blockade;

Water shortages in occupied Crimea are of a long-term character since its local resources are insufficient to meet its needs. In the short term, the Russian authorities will attempt to resolve the water deficit on an ad hoc basis while stepping up pressure on Ukraine to unblock the North Crimean Canal. A forced takeover of the canal by the Russian military should be considered a last resort, given that the cost of such an operation for Russia would significantly exceed the possible benefit.

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China’s Preparations for the Second Wave of COVID-19

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: COVID-19; China; second wave; preparations; pandemic;

A very low increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections has been recorded for many months in China. However, local outbreaks occur regularly and the Chinese authorities expect the number to rise towards the end of the year. The authorities have begun limiting the entry of foreigners to China and are speeding up the completion of work on a vaccine. China is taking advantage of the relatively stable situation to increase its influence in Central Europe, Asia, and Latin America at the expense of the U.S. and the EU. As a result, the scope for Union cooperation with China to combat the pandemic remains limited.

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NATO Augments Its Space Policy

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Space policy; NATO; foreign policy; security; satellite systems;

NATO space policy, backed by the development of necessary command structures and satellite systems, helps strengthen the ability to conduct collective defence missions. The implementation of this policy will require investment in new high-capacity satellites. Poland may obtain optimal conditions for the development of its own satellite capabilities by using cooperation within NATO and the mechanisms of the European Union.

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New Pragmatism: France and the U.S. under Biden

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; USA; Biden; pragmatism; foreign policy;

France hopes that Joe Biden’s presidency will increase U.S. engagement in international institutions and multilateral diplomacy compared to Donald Trump’s time. Of particular importance for France is the very expected return of the U.S. to the Paris Climate Agreement, the nuclear deal with Iran (JCPOA), and a renewal of disarmament agreements. Much more scepticism has risen in France about the possibility of improving commercial relations between Europe and the U.S., as well as maintaining NATO in its role as the main guarantor of European security.

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Prospects for the U.S.-South Korea Alliance during the Biden Administration

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; South Korea; Biden; alliance; foreign policy; economic policy; China;

The incoming administration of President-elect Joe Biden foreshadows an improvement in relations between the U.S. and South Korea, including resolving the dispute over defence cost-sharing for stationing American troops on the Korean Peninsula. However, the new U.S. government may be less engaged in the dialogue with North Korea than the previous one, which would weaken the inter-Korean policy of South Korean President Moon Jae-in. The Biden administration’s actions towards the South and other U.S. allies, including those in Europe, will be primarily focused on gaining their support in competing with China.

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Russia’s Use of Chemical Weapons: Consequences for NATO

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; security; Russia; chemical weapons;

The report by the expert group on NATO reform, published in early December, emphasises the need to strengthen the defence of NATO member states and troops against chemical weapons. The use of the Novichok substance in the attempted murder of Russian oppositionist Alexei Navalny confirmed that Russia has this weapon of mass destruction prohibited by treaty.

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Devolution in the UK and the Combined Challenges of Pandemic and Brexit

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

Keywords: UK; pandemic; COVID-19; Brexit; domestic policy; foreign policy;

Brexit and the pandemic pose the two most important challenges for UK domestic politics today. While Brexit policy has been controlled by central-government institutions, the response to the pandemic has been formulated by a number of mutually independent central, national, and regional institutions. Consequently, the national and regional elections in May 2021 have been increasingly concentrating on devolved health and education policies as well as on partly decentralised economic and fiscal ones. In the pandemic context, these policies have become the most important catalysts for separatism in Britain in the last 30 years. In Scotland, the election may open the way to its independence and the destabilisation of Britain as an important ally of Poland.

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Prospects for U.S.-Russia Nuclear Arms Control under the Biden Administration

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Russia; nuclear weapons; control; Biden;

The U.S.-Russian nuclear arms-control talks held late in Donald Trump’s presidency hit an impasse. However, following Joe Biden’s win in the November election, a shift regarding the soon-to-expire New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) is expected and the accord is very likely to be extended. Negotiations of a follow-on agreement will be much more difficult. They may cover additional U.S. and Russian military capabilities, including shorter-range nuclear forces, and directly impact European security. These talks should be the subject of close consultation between the U.S and other NATO members.

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Navalny’s Significance in Russian Domestic and Foreign Policy

Author(s): Jakub Benedyczak,Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; domestic policy; Alexei Navalny; poison; significance;

The attempt to poison Russian oppositionist Alexei Navalny exacerbated relations between Western countries and Russia and led to increased recognition and sympathy towards him among Russians. For medical reasons, Navalny will remain abroad for the next few months; however, he has declared his intention to return to Russia to prepare the political base for elections to the State Duma, which will take place in September 2021. The significance of Navalny in internal Russian politics will increase, but it will not threaten the position of President Vladimir Putin.

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Hoping for a Change: Germany and the U.S. after Biden’s Victory

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; USA; Biden; presidential election; foreign policy; change;

With Joe Biden having won the U.S. presidential election, the German government hopes to improve relations with the country, which remains its most important non-European partner. The expected change in policy direction will not, however, be in all areas, and the U.S. cross-party consensus on key issues in dispute with Germany will continue to generate tension in bilateral and transatlantic relations.

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French Authorities Playing a Risky Game with Security

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; politics; right wing; security; COVID-19;

The sense of insecurity among the French public amid the pandemic and terrorist threat improves the electoral chances of the right-wing opposition. As President Emmanuel Macron is seeking re-election in 2022, he has responded with laws aiming at defending the secularism of the state and boosting the role of law enforcement. Some of the proposed solutions, such as an interdiction on disseminating images of police officers, have provoked controversy. The government’s narrative may also have a negative impact on France’s foreign policy

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Possible Scenarios of Russian-Belarusian Military Integration

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Belarus; military policy; integration; security; NATO;

Belarus and Russia closely cooperate militarily and further actions by the Russian authorities aimed at deepening integration in this area should be expected. Russia may even seek to create joint armed forces with Belarus, which would be an additional way to secure the west of Russia. For Belarus, this would mean a loss of sovereignty in defence policy. Such a scenario should be taken into account in military planning by NATO members, especially those on the Alliance’s Eastern Flank.

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The Prospects for Improved U.S.-China Relations under the Biden Administration

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak,Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Biden; USA: China; relations; foreign policy; security;

The Biden administration will likely maintain the tough U.S. approach to China, including in the field of security, while trying to cooperate with it on issues important to both countries, such as climate change. One can expect more dialogue and pragmatism in bilateral relations than during Donald Trump’s term. An important element of Joe Biden’s policy will be to improve relations with, for example, Asian U.S. allies and the EU to involve them more in the rivalry with China. In response, China may strengthen ties with countries that share its criticism of western democracy and U.S. policy, such as Russia.

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Lockdown for Christmas: Germany Bracing in the Fight against the Pandemic

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło,Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; COVID-19; pandemic; policy;

The renewed rise in COVID-19 incidence has prompted federal and regional authorities to tighten restrictions. The goal is to keep the number of infections under control until mass vaccination is introduced. During Christmas, New Year’s, and the winter holidays, the economic costs of the restrictions will be particularly felt in trade, tourism, and catering, but less in industry. The lockdown also will have political consequences as the opposition may use it as a pretext to critically assess the actions of Angela Merkel’s government in the fight against the pandemic.

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Return to Multilateralism: The Biden Administration and the UN System

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA: Biden; Biden administration; UN System; multilateralism; foreign policy;

Unlike the incumbent U.S. president, Donald Trump, his successor, Joe Biden, looks much more favourably on international organisations, including the United Nations and its agencies. Biden’s assumption of office in January creates an opportunity for the U.S. to re-engage in multilateral efforts such as the fight against climate change or international cooperation on public health issues. This may entail a return of the U.S. to agreements and organisations it withdrew from during Trump’s term. From the perspective of Poland, which strongly supports the UN and multilateral cooperation, it is a favourable situation that opens up new fields for cooperation.

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Joint Crisis-Response: Towards a European Health Union

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Europe; health union; crisis; response; health policy;

The European Commission (EC) presented a package of legislative proposals initiating the creation of a European Health Union. The proposals seek to strengthen crisis management in the face of cross-border health threats, including institutional reforms in the area of health. They do not prejudice the competences of the Member States as defined in the Treaties but are an incentive for closer cooperation in the field of health at the EU level. In the long run, this may pave the way for a revision of the competences of the EU and states in health policy.

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Series:PISM Bulletin

The Military Dimension of the Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh

Reform of the Union Civil Protection Mechanism During the Pandemic

Prospects for Unification Talks in Cyprus

“Russian Truce”: The Tense Future of Nagorno-Karabakh

Water Shortages in Occupied Crimea

China’s Preparations for the Second Wave of COVID-19

NATO Augments Its Space Policy

New Pragmatism: France and the U.S. under Biden

Prospects for the U.S.-South Korea Alliance during the Biden Administration

Russia’s Use of Chemical Weapons: Consequences for NATO

Devolution in the UK and the Combined Challenges of Pandemic and Brexit

Prospects for U.S.-Russia Nuclear Arms Control under the Biden Administration

Navalny’s Significance in Russian Domestic and Foreign Policy

Hoping for a Change: Germany and the U.S. after Biden’s Victory

French Authorities Playing a Risky Game with Security

Possible Scenarios of Russian-Belarusian Military Integration

The Prospects for Improved U.S.-China Relations under the Biden Administration

Lockdown for Christmas: Germany Bracing in the Fight against the Pandemic

Return to Multilateralism: The Biden Administration and the UN System

Joint Crisis-Response: Towards a European Health Union