Series:PISM Bulletin

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Migration from Arab States and the Crisis on the Border with Belarus

Migration from Arab States and the Crisis on the Border with Belarus

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Arab States; Belarus; crisis; migration; foreign policy;

Belarus is taking advantage of the difficult situation in Arab states to try to destabilise the EU by forcing migrants from Minsk on routes to the border. In the long run, promotion of legal migration of Arab people to the EU may limit irregular migration and fill the demographic gaps that are increasingly widening in ageing European societies.

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Croatia On Its Way To Adopting The Euro

Chorwacja na drodze do przyjęcia euro

Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Euro; Croatia; financial policy; COVID-19;

W lipcu br. Chorwacja przystąpiła do mechanizmu kursów walutowych (ERM II) poprzedzającego członkostwo w strefie euro. Rząd, tak jak opozycja i większość opinii publicznej, widzi we wspólnej walucie więcej korzyści niż zagrożeń i wskazuje na możliwość jej wprowadzenia w 2023 r. Jednak, mimo braku przeszkód politycznych, prawdopodobnie nastąpi to później ze względu na problemy gospodarcze Chorwacji, przede wszystkim nadmierny dług publiczny, które pogłębiają się wskutek recesji spowodowanej pandemią COVID-19.

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The Situation of the Belarusian Opposition

The Situation of the Belarusian Opposition

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus; opposition; situation; Svetlana Tikhanovskaya; economic policy; reforms;

On 14 August, the candidate in the presidential elections in Belarus, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, announced the formation of a coordination council. This was the first attempt in years to consolidate the opposition, which, under the authoritarian political system of Belarus, finds it very difficult to operate. Given the growing number of people involved in the work of the council, it has the chance to become a long-term political project capable of developing reform plans for the country.

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Czechia’s Climate Policy and Energy Transformation

Czechia’s Climate Policy and Energy Transformation

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Czechia; climate; energy; policy; transformation; EU;

The Czech government assumes a gradual withdrawal from coal while increasing the share of nuclear in the national energy mix. This is confirmed in an agreement with the main energy supplier, ČEZ, from July on financing another nuclear reactor. Even though Prime Minister Andrej Babiš had previously criticised the EU plan to reduce CO2 emissions, ultimately Czechia accepted the EU climate goals. A more effective energy transformation in Central Europe would come from closer cooperation, including in the programme of the ongoing Polish presidency in the Visegrad Group, help for coal-mining regions, and in other efforts.

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Perspectives on China’s Policy towards Central Asia

Perspectives on China’s Policy towards Central Asia

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Keywords: Central Asia; China; policy; perspective; BRI; economic crisis;

Central Asia is an important direction in Chinese foreign policy, crucial for the implementation of the land portion of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The challenges for China are the growing anti-Chinese sentiment in Central Asia and the risk of destabilisation in the region caused by the economic crisis and the weakness of local states. In the long term, this will force China to become more involved in regional security, which will exacerbate the Sino-Russian rivalry in Central Asia.

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Towards a New EU Pact on Migration and Asylum

Towards a New EU Pact on Migration and Asylum

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU Pact; migration; asylum; COVID-19; migrations;

Conflicts between Member States over the relocation mechanism as well as the changing conditions of migration policy are delaying the adoption of the New Pact on Migration and Asylum. The strategy, apart from answering the question about the shape of the European asylum system, must weigh the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the situation of migrants and border management, instability in the EU’s neighbourhood and the long-term challenges related to economic migration. The document may define the shape of EU migration policy for many years or renew divisions over this topic.

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China’s Stances on Political Crises in Other Countries

China’s Stances on Political Crises in Other Countries

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; political crises; foreign policy; PRC; Belarus;

China’s growing global engagement has altered the government’s interpretation of the non-interference principle, which officially is a cornerstone of PRC foreign policy. It has been noticeable especially since the early 2000s in China’s reactions to internal political crises in other countries. Although China usually pursues a wait-and-see approach, mainly where it has little economic and political interests, such as recently in Belarus, more and more often China openly involves itself where it has significant interests or its citizens may suffer. This approach creates an opportunity for democratic countries to cooperate with China, albeit to a limited extent.

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The Anti-Corruption Protests in Bulgaria

The Anti-Corruption Protests in Bulgaria

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bulgaria; anti-corruption; protests; corruption; EU; migration;

The anti-corruption protests in Bulgaria that have lasted for two months are not weakening. Marchers demand the depoliticisation of the prosecutor’s office and the dismissal of Prime Minister Boyko Borisov. After a decade in power, Bulgaria has the highest recorded level of corruption and the least media freedom in the European Union. Despite this, Borisov is not criticized by EU institutions or the largest Member States, which opt for stability in a country that lies on key migration routes over demanding devotion to high standards of democracy.

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The Next Evolution of Hungary’s Defence Policy

The Next Evolution of Hungary’s Defence Policy

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Hungary; defence policy; NATO; security;

Hungary’s new National Security Strategy (NBS) emphasises strengthening European defence. NATO remains the country’s security pillar, yet military and defence-industrial cooperation with Germany and France is given priority over the U.S. Hungary’s low commitment to NATO’s deterrence and defence posture weakens its position in the Alliance, which is why the country will try to capitalise on an active defence policy to strengthen its clout in the EU. Consequently, Hungary may support and engage in initiatives aimed at building European strategic autonomy in competition with NATO.

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Egyptian-Greek Agreement on Sea Delimitation: Meaning for Egypt’s Regional Policy

Egyptian-Greek Agreement on Sea Delimitation: Meaning for Egypt’s Regional Policy

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Egypt; regional policy; sea delimitation; Greece; agreement;

In August, Egypt and Greece signed an agreement on the delimitation of their maritime borders. The designation of the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) will allow the countries to tighten cooperation in the gas industry. At the same time, the agreement strengthens the perception of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum as a tool countering Turkey. The potential escalation of the conflict in the region will hinder the further development of gas cooperation between the EU and Egypt.

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Opening of the European Centre of Excellence for Civilian Crisis Management

Opening of the European Centre of Excellence for Civilian Crisis Management

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

Keywords: CoE; Centre of Excellence; civilian crisis management; opening;

The launch of the European Centre of Excellence for Civilian Crisis Management (CoE) in Berlin is one of the goals of the German presidency of the EU Council. The new unit is to support the states and external services of the EU, increasing the effectiveness of the civilian dimension of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). The lack of involvement of all Member States in the creation of the CoE, however, raises concerns about the effectiveness of cooperation and proper coordination with the activities of Union bodies. Poland’s participation in the CoE contributes to strengthening the potential of EU civilian missions.

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Complaints Season Not Over Yet: Legal Disputes about Bond-Buying in the Euro Area

Complaints Season Not Over Yet: Legal Disputes about Bond-Buying in the Euro Area

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Euro; financial markets; policy; Bond-Buying; Euro Area; PEPP;

In response to the judgment of the German constitutional court (BVG) in May questioning the purchase of government bonds in the euro area launched in 2015, the European Central Bank (ECB) provided explanations through the Bundesbank, which the German government and parliament considered sufficient. The dispute, however, is hardly over. Critics of the central bank’s actions intend to file further complaints, this time against the pandemic programme PEPP.

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Bangladesh’s Growing International Position: Opportunities for Poland

Bangladesh’s Growing International Position: Opportunities for Poland

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Opportunities; Poland; Bangladesh; India; foreign policy; economy;

Bangladesh, a country of 160 million, is one of the most successful examples in the world of the eradication of poverty and economic growth in recent decades. Although the COVID-19 pandemic will slow its economic development, the country’s international role will grow. This will be influenced partly by the intensification of the rivalry between India, China, and the U.S. in the region. Strengthening Poland’s cooperation with this country may create new business opportunities and strengthen the Asian direction of foreign policy. This can be achieved by strengthening the political dialogue, re-opening the Polish embassy in Dhaka, and more government support for economic promotion.

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A New Jihadist Front in Mozambique

A New Jihadist Front in Mozambique

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: Mozambique; Muslim rebels; ISIS; Jihadists;

In August, ISIS-linked Muslim rebels in Mozambique seized the strategic port of Mocímboa da Praia, located near gas installations in the Cabo Delgado province. The extremist offensive may spoil development opportunities in a country that is one of Poland’s main trading partners in Africa.

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Restrained Involvement: Germany and the Political Crisis in Belarus

Restrained Involvement: Germany and the Political Crisis in Belarus

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; Belarus; political crisis; involvement;

In view of the ongoing political crisis in Belarus, the German government supported the imposition of new EU sanctions and declared its readiness to engage in dialogue with President Alexander Lukashenka and Russia. The reluctance of the Belarusian authorities to make concessions, the growing interest of German public opinion in the situation in Belarus, and the tensions in relations with Russia may induce Germany to extend the sanctions and provide greater support to the opposition.

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Prospects for New Sources of Revenue for the European Union

Prospects for New Sources of Revenue for the European Union

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; European Commision; economic policy; budget; funds;

The European Commission’s proposal to pay off the debt taken on to create the recovery fund through new taxes strengthens the arguments for reform of the revenue side of the EU budget. Establishing additional sources of revenue is in the interest of net beneficiaries of the EU budget, who would be particularly hit by the cuts provoked by the necessity to pay the Union’s creditors. Proceeds from taxes could also enable greater spending on new priorities such as research, healthcare, and border protection. The sceptics, however, including the Northern European states, are still unconvinced.

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EU Response to the Crisis in Belarus

EU Response to the Crisis in Belarus

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus; politics; crisis; EU; sanctions;

The EU’s actions in relation to the crisis in Belarus were rapid, but they remain limited. The Member States have little impact on the Belarusian regime and they are divided over the scope of common policy. Poland can sustain the EU’s engagement in Belarus and demand ambitious actions to support Belarusian civil society. The EU should considerably expand the list of sanctioned officials, allocate more funds to the third sector, and coordinate international aid for Belarus.

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Ukraine’s Response to the Political Crisis in Belarus

Ukraine’s Response to the Political Crisis in Belarus

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Belarus; political crisis; response;

Alexander Lukashenka has so far been seen in Ukraine as a guarantor of Belarus’ independence from Russia. Therefore, the Ukrainian authorities initially avoided condemning the electoral fraud to avoid weakening the Belarusian president. That have since tightened their positions in response to Lukashenka’s accusation that Ukraine helped initiate the protests. However, Ukraine will not become actively involved in resolving the crisis in Belarus and will limit itself to reacting to Belarusian provocations and supporting EU policy towards that country.

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Japan’s Foreign Policy After Abe

Japan’s Foreign Policy After Abe

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Japan; foreign policy; Abe Shinzo; new government; EU;

On 16 September, Suga Yoshihide, a close associate of the former head of government Abe Shinzo, became Japan’s new prime minister. He will continue the foreign and security policy of his predecessor amid the increasing rivalry between the U.S. and China. EU-Japan economic and strategic partnership agreements concluded in recent years and the Union’s increasingly assertive attitude towards China create an opportunity to deepen cooperation between the EU and Japan.

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The International Race for a COVID-19 Vaccine

The International Race for a COVID-19 Vaccine

Author(s): Jakub Benedyczak,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: COVID-19; Vaccine; foreign policy; relations;

The U.S., China, and Russia see the development and sale of a COVID-19 vaccine as a potential source of political and economic benefits. Their rivalry and reluctance to join multilateral initiatives are hindering WHO’s efforts to ensure equal access to the vaccine for all countries, including developing ones. This may delay containment of the pandemic and lead to recurrence.

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