Series:PISM Bulletin

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The Impact of COVID-19 on the Terrorist Threat in the EU

The Impact of COVID-19 on the Terrorist Threat in the EU

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; COVID-19; terrorist threat; impact; pandemic;

According to Europol data, in 2019 the decline in the number of attacks and the activity of terrorist organisations continued in the EU, with the exception of extreme right-wing groups. The COVID-19 pandemic has limited the possibilities for terrorist organisations to operate. In the short term, the terrorist threat to the EU will continue to decline. However, terrorists will adapt to the new conditions. As a result of the pandemic, structural problems in Europe’s neighbourhood will worsen and an economic crisis is expected within the EU itself. Such conditions may favuor the activity of extremists (both Islamic and farright), increasing the threat of terrorism for the EU in the long term.

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Russia’s Corona-diplomacy: Evaluation and Prospects

Russia’s Corona-diplomacy: Evaluation and Prospects

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Corona; diplomacy; foreign policy; evaluation; prospects;

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian Federation (RF) provided medical assistance to more than 30 countries. The Russian authorities used such activities to try to convince their citizens of Russia’s success in dealing with the pandemic. At the same time, the intensive use of propaganda has reduced the effectiveness of Russian public diplomacy in the U.S. and in the EU states. Russia will conduct aid diplomacy even after the pandemic is over, seeing it as an opportunity to strengthen its influence in the recipient countries.

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Reinforcing Macron: Priorities of the New French Government

Reinforcing Macron: Priorities of the New French Government

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Emmanuel Macron; France; government; politics; priorities;

On 6 July, President Emmanuel Macron appointed a new government headed by Jean Castex. Its main task is further implementation of reforms aiming at reinvigorating the competitiveness of the French economy under new conditions created by the COVID-19 pandemic and the crisis it caused. The main political priority is to secure Macron’s re-election in 2022 and to maintain the dominant position of the presidential party, La République en Marche (LREM).

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USMCA: Less Free Trade, More Regulations

USMCA: Less Free Trade, More Regulations

Author(s): Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: USMCA; free trade; regulations; economic policy; COVID-19;

The Free Trade Agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada (USMCA) entered into force on 1 July and replaced the previous agreement. The new rules are intended to encourage multinationals to locate production in North America and, above all, in the United States. The COVID-19 pandemic will make implementation of the agreement more difficult in the short term, but will strengthen the benefits of relocating manufacturing plants to the region in the long term. The USMCA also raises issues of employee and environmental protection. This might be beneficial for the EU, which strives to raise these standards in free trade agreements.

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Consequences of Hong Kong’s National Security Law

Consequences of Hong Kong’s National Security Law

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Hong Kong; national security; law; China; policy;

The National Security Law, imposed on Hong Kong by China on 30 June, has reduced protests against China’s policy. The scale of the restrictions, including those potentially affecting foreigners, and China’s supervision over the implementation of the law have already worsened the living conditions of Hong Kong residents and functioning of foreign companies. China’s actions caused an international reaction, mainly from the UK, the U.S. and the EU. Concerned about the safety of its citizens, the EU recommends that Member States suspend their extradition agreements with Hong Kong.

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Belarusian Presidential Election: Towards Dependence on Russia

Belarusian Presidential Election: Towards Dependence on Russia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus; president; elections; Russia; dependence;

On post-election night, the Belarusian authorities brutally pacified the county’s largest protests in over 20 years, which expressed opposition to the falsification of election results and dissatisfaction of Belarusians with the current president. According to preliminary official results, Alexander Lukashenka received over 80% of the vote, while his main opponent, Svetlana Cichanouska, got only 9.9%. The pacification of the protests means that dialogue with the EU and the U.S. is likely to stop, which in turn will weaken the Belarusian position towards Russia, threatening to further undermine Belarusian independence.

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Not Only Pressure: Prospects for Change in the EU’s North Korea Policy

Not Only Pressure: Prospects for Change in the EU’s North Korea Policy

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; North Korea; foreign policy; security; economy;

Basing the EU’s policy towards North Korea on pressure in recent years has not only brought positive results, but also reduced the already limited European influence on the Korean Peninsula. Announcements of a more ambitious EU’s policy on the global stage and a deadlock in both inter-Korean dialogue and negotiations between North Korea and the U.S. facilitate the introduction of changes in the EU’s approach to North Korea. A European political and economic commitment could help to stabilise the peninsula and strengthen the EU’s credibility as an organisation working on international security.

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Clean Gas: Prospects of Hydrogen Energy Development in the EU

Clean Gas: Prospects of Hydrogen Energy Development in the EU

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; energy; policy; hydrogen; gas; foreign policy;

Hydrogen is a non-polluting gas, which, by replacing natural gas, would contribute to decarbonising the EU’s industry. The development of the hydrogen sector is related not only with climate policy but also with the industrial strategy and it will require, for example, forging regulations and making investments both in hydrogen production capacities and a transmission network. The above issues will be a challenge for Poland’s industrial and foreign policy.

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Closely-watched Freedom of Speech: The Media in Hungary

Closely-watched Freedom of Speech: The Media in Hungary

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Hungary; freedom of speech; media; politics; democracy;

On 24 July, the editors of Index.hu, the leading Hungarian news site, announced the end of its functioning. This significantly limits access to non-governmental information sources in Hungary. Index.hu could be directly influenced by the authorities through economic instruments. As a result of changes in the Hungarian media market after 2010, the mass media do not provide a large variety of content to a wide audience, and do not fulfil their function of overseeing the authorities, which lowers the democratic standards in this country.

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The European Peace Facility: a New EU Security Initiative

The European Peace Facility: a New EU Security Initiative

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

Keywords: EPF; EU; NATO; security; policy;

Consent to finance the European Peace Facility (EPF) in the new budget perspective is an expression of the EU’s growing ambitions as a global player actively involved in ensuring international security. However, the effectiveness of the EPF will depend on the agreement of all Member States on how to respond to conflicts, as well as on consistency with other EU and NATO activities. It will also be necessary to develop guarantees of adequate control over the funds spent.

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A Revision of Special Relations? Israel in German Foreign Policy

A Revision of Special Relations? Israel in German Foreign Policy

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło,Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; Germany; foreign policy; Palestine;

In recent months, Germany has been working intensively to stop Israeli plans to annex Jewish settlements in the West Bank. This was facilitated by the use of Israel’s special status in German foreign policy and constant diplomatic involvement in the conflict between Israel and Palestine. However, if the annexation takes place, it could induce Germany to revise its support for Israel. This is most likely to result other EU countries modifying their policies.

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The Baltic States and the Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant in Astravyets

The Baltic States and the Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant in Astravyets

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

Keywords: Baltic states; Belarus; energy; policy; power plant; Astravyets;

Lithuania is trying, so far unsuccessfully, to block Belarus’ plans to sell electricity to the Baltic States. President Gitanas Nauseda asked the President of the European Commission (EC) Ursula von der Leyen to mediate on this issue between Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. The latter two recognise the primary security problems with the plant, but also indicate the importance of economic factors. In the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the price of energy will play an increasingly important role, and in the new budget of the European Union, the climate and energy transition are gaining importance.

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The Next Step Towards Decentralisation in Ukraine

The Next Step Towards Decentralisation in Ukraine

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; decentralisation; government; governance;

In June and July, the Ukrainian government and parliament approved the new boundaries of state administrative divisions. Local government units (LGUs) will be re-constituted after municipal elections scheduled for October. Finalising decentralisation requires additional legislative changes, including constitutional amendments, which will redefine the division of competences between different LGU levels as well as between the government and local governments. The reform will expand the possibilities of cooperation between Ukrainian local government and foreign partners.

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State of U.S. Development of Ground-Launched Intermediate-Range Missiles

State of U.S. Development of Ground-Launched Intermediate-Range Missiles

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; NATO; defence; budget cuts; missiles; missile arsenal;

Since its withdrawal from the INF Treaty, the U.S. has been working on several types of ground-launched conventional missiles. The future scope of this work could be, however, limited by political changes in the U.S. after the November elections or defence budget cuts. The U.S. decisions will be important for further NATO discussions about the military and political response to the expansion of the Russian missile arsenal.

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Evolution of NATO Cooperation with Its Partners: Opportunities and Challenges

Evolution of NATO Cooperation with Its Partners: Opportunities and Challenges

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; Europe; China; security; foreign policy;

Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea, NATO has been stepping up cooperation with a small group of partners in Europe who both offer practical crisis-response support and can contribute to the Alliance’s defence and deterrence mission. However, as NATO has identified China as a challenge, the importance of relations with partners from other regions, especially Asia and the Pacific, will increase. Poland may offer them wider access to exercises on its territory and in the Baltic Sea in exchange for greater financial support for Georgia and Ukraine.

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New Investments, Possible Consolidation: France’s Support of Its Defence Industry

New Investments, Possible Consolidation: France’s Support of Its Defence Industry

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; defece industry; investments; consolidation;

Despite a huge increase in France’s budget deficit related to the coronavirus pandemic, the government does not intend to abandon its plan of boosting military spending in 2021. It justifies it by the deterioration of the security situation in the wider EU neighbourhood and the importance of the defence sector to the French economy. The increased spending may be followed by consolidation of this sector on both the national and European levels.

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The Private Sector in the U.S. Space Programme

The Private Sector in the U.S. Space Programme

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; space programme; private sector; NASA; NewSpace;

With the success of the Dragon capsule, the U.S. has regained the ability to independently launch astronauts into orbit. This was made possible thanks to cooperation between NASA and a private space company, part of an industry called NewSpace. To achieve the goals of returning to the Moon and manned flight to Mars, the U.S. will need to step up its cooperation with NewSpace and involve additional private and public foreign partners. This could become an impulse to deepen transatlantic cooperation in space exploration and strengthen the European space market.

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Consequences of COVID-19 in ASEAN States

Consequences of COVID-19 in ASEAN States

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: ASEAN; economy; COVID-19M consequences;

The COVID-19 pandemic in the 10 member states of ASEAN has resulted in severe losses of life and economic problems, including higher unemployment. It also has revealed weakness in the bloc’s integration, including a lack of coordination. However, the crisis is an opportunity to tighten cooperation, for example, in the supply of medical equipment. It may also contribute to the intensification of relations with external partners, such as trade agreements with the EU, which can support ASEAN economies’ recovery from recession.

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The Big Ambitions of a Small State: UAE Foreign Policy

The Big Ambitions of a Small State: UAE Foreign Policy

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Keywords: UAU; foreign policy; economy; transport;

In recent years, the UAE has become more actively involved in disputes in the Middle East and North Africa. Combating the influence of Islamist groups and the countries supporting them, weakening Iran, and increasing control over transport routes in the Gulf are all intended to consolidate the Emirates regime’s power. However, the actions carried out under the pretext of combating radicalism rather strengthen authoritarian governments in the region and in the long run will deepen the destabilisation.

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Changes in the EU’s Policy Towards Turkey

Changes in the EU’s Policy Towards Turkey

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; EU; policy; accession; economy; security;

In relations between the EU and Turkey, the differences in foreign policy have taken precedence over the stagnant accession negotiations. This is a result of Turkey’s growing distance from the Copenhagen criteria and problems for the Member States with its policy in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. As a result, the EU is developing a new approach towards Turkey. For it to be effective, the Union should signal Turkey that improvement in relations is possible only when it refrains from acting against the interests of the Member States.

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