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Georgia's Convergence with the European Union: Export Challenges

Author(s): Nino Papachashvili,Tamta Mikaberidze,Marine Tavartkiladze / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The paper aims to identify Georgia's export challenges in the context of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) and to present the theoretical findings for the assessment the results of the Georgia’s convergence to the EU under the free trade conditions. In order to assess its impact on export, the paper provides a comparative analysis of the results of the sociological survey of Georgian exporters conducted in 2016 and 2022 and also, an experimental study on the impact of institutional distance on export. Among the important findings are: exporters with more than 5 years of experience (mostly considering sanitary and phytosanitary standards) were positively affected by institutional proximity and export flows are in positive correlation with the state effectiveness (according to the WGI) in partner countries.

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Monetary Policies in Response to Covid-19 Crisis in the Balkans. Challenges to Central Banks

Author(s): Tsvetelina Marinova,Nikolay Nenovsky / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

In the Balkan countries (Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia) the coronavirus pandemic has had serious economic and social repercussions. While in Bulgaria there are a number of formal, legal constraints to pursuing expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, as well as those stemming from the participation of the Bulgarian lev in the exchange rate mechanism 2 and the EU Banking Union, in Romania and Serbia the government and the central bank dispose of more policy tools and opportunities to react to crises. This is evidenced by the applied monetary easing strategies, including quantitative easing as well as other unconventional monetary policy and liquidity measures during the pandemic. In this regard the aim of the paperis to demonstrate to what extent the type of monetary regime determines the scope and nature of reactions in the event of a shock and crisis associated with systemic uncertainty and the possibilities for economic recovery in the three Balkan states.

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What Happened to Bulgaria and the Eurozone

Author(s): Yanko Hristozov / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The topic of the adoption of the euro in Bulgaria is as well-worn as it is relevant with each subsequent year because the country is on the threshold of the euro zone, but something is still missing. Expectations for admission at the beginning of 2024 turned out to be impossible because Bulgaria did not meet the requirements for inflation levels, although it was exemplary in this indicator in recent years. It turned out that all efforts were in vain, but there is still hope that within one to two years the economic indicators will stabilize and the country will become a full member of the Eurozone. The purpose of this report is to examine the state of convergence indicators in Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania for the period 2020-2022 and to try to trace the reasons for our not being admitted to this monetary union, which is so important to us.

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THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON MILITARY POWER IN THE INDO-PACIFIC REGION

Author(s): DIACONU FLORIN / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

A few decades ago, John Naisbitt was openly listing a new major trend, already visible at that very moment on the international arena: the complex realities in the Pacific Ocean area were already massively important, and their global relevance grew larger and larger. Nowadays, this megatrend is even more important, leading both various political actors (leaders, states, political parties) and various analysts to an obvious conclusion: the Indo-Pacific region is the new center of the global system. In such a situation, the study explores, with some relevant details, the way in which the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic impacted the armed forces (military power) of some of the most important states in the Indo-Pacific region (mainly the US, China, India and Russia, but also some regional great powers – Japan, South Korea, Australia, and other regionally significant powers – Vietnam, the Philippines, Pakistan, Indonesia, and Taiwan, among others).

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FIGHTING POLYCEPHALIC THREATS – THE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT IN TIMES OF PANDEMICS AND INFODEMICS

Author(s): MARIN George-Sorin / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The expression “the world is facing a crisis” almost became a cliché these days. During the global response to fight the COVID-19 crisis, a developing kind of threat gained new valences and the capacity to spread almost instantly, due to the characteristics of the information Age we live in. The over-abundance of information generated a new challenge for humanity and affected the process of finding reliable, trustworthy sources of information during the pandemic. Propaganda, false narratives and disinformation inhibit governmental processes aimed to overcome the crisis. Strategic decisions have to take into consideration multiple risks and factors in order to prevent both infections and intoxications. Therefore, the security environment has the complex mission to manage a sanitary crisis that endangers the health of populations all over the world in a new type of confrontation – a campaign against polychephalic threats.

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Transition to Payments for Russian Gas in Rubles: One Step Beyond

Author(s): Vasily Tkachev / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Russia has long dominated in the supply of gas to many European countries, at the same time being heavily dependent on the foreign currency revenues from gas exports to cover its foreign currency demand. Therefore the Russia-Europe gas trade was considered mutually beneficial. Geopolitical tensions of spring 2022 changed this status quo. Russia required gas to be paid in rubles. The paper lays out an analytical framework for understanding the reasons and consequences of this drastic move based on the combination of macro- and micro-level challenges. We argue that the new mechanism of the Russian gas payments introduced in 2022 should be considered transitional to a potential future radical overhaul of the payments for Russian exports.

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Convergence of the GDP Structures of CEE Countries to the Euro Area

Author(s): Nikolay Velichkov,Dimitar Damyanov D. / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

This paper attempts to find out to what extent CEE countries are converging towards the euro area in terms of their GDP structures. To achieve our objectives, we use a beta-convergence econometric approach that relies on fixed effects panel data estimation. We estimate a simple equation for all GDP structures and compare the results between two groups of countries. The results obtained from the empirical analysis indicate that there is a process of beta convergence in the GDP structures of the CEE countries towards the euro area. The intensity of this process shows certain specifics both in relation to the countries in and outside the euro area, and in relation to individual structural components. The increasing structural similarity does not exclude the manifestation of certain negative influences on macroeconomic dynamics, which could reduce the intensity of the real convergence process.

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THE COMMON EUROPEAN SECURITY UNDER THE CORONA VIRUS PANDEMIC MASK

Author(s): Bogdan-Cezar CHIOSEAUA / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

A safer Europe in a better world” were the words that one could hear in December 2003 at the General Council of the European Union, when the “European Security Strategy" was adopted. It represented a historic moment in which clear targets were set for ensuring security, common threats were identified and principles were promoted in order to give the European Union the status of regional and global “anchor of stability”.Five years later, at the presentation of the first report regarding the strategy implementation, the heads of state and government reached a common conclusion, that the world is in a continuous, accelerated and varied change, and ensuring security in such environment becomes a challenge, a desideratum for which all member countries must contribute. Today, the world is neither better nor safer. An unexpected blow, the Coronavirus pandemic has been applied to the political, economic and military interests that are shaking the foundations of the “European Union Pantheon”, and its effects are felt in all countries, regardless of their level of development or contribution to the European Union budget.

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POSSIBLE WAY OF COMMUNICATION AND CONFLICT MANAGEMENT IN HEALTHCARE INSTITUTIONS

Author(s): RÁCZKEVY-DEÁK Gabriella / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Nowadays, the frustration and fear caused by COVID-19 leads to aggressive manifestations in all areas. Perhaps even more common in healthcare institutions. However, often not only the fear of this virus, but inadequate communication from healthcare workers leads to aggressive actions. Patients respond in a variety of ways to a sudden change in health or functioning. While some of them are open and grateful for care, others may express strong emotions. Some emotions expressed by patients are more difficult for health care personal to deal with. Common difficult interactions include patient expressions of emotions such as anger, anxiety, and depression, as responses to crises. These emotions could cause violent actions in healthcare institutions. The paper presents communication methods and strategies used in health care and looks for answers such as why verbal and non-verbal communication mistakes can cause physical, and verbal aggression or conflict. It examines which communication method is more useful in dealing with conflict situations occurring in patient-doctor, nurse-patient interactions in health care. The article recommends types of communication. It highlights the importance of empathy since without it the conflict cannot be solved or it can only temporarily. The article also emphasizes that it would therefore be important to train staff in appropriate communication trainings as well as to practice these lessons in situational exercises.

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VIEWS ON THE MANAGEMENT OF THE CURRENT PANDEMIC CRISIS

Author(s): TĂNASE Tiberiu,Ovidiu Boureanu / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

In this paper we have focused on the major challenge of the 21st century, namely the COVID-19 viral pandemic. We aimed to analyze the vast problem from several angles using resources from media, international and local organizations, global reflection centers, think tanks and others. Our aim was to search on the subject and evidence the role played by the international organizations in the fight against the pandemic COVID-19. We also evaluate the situation and challenges in the field of public health that influences national security, affecting the citizens state of health, nations and national states. After a period of 100 years of free pandemic, our world is in uncharted teritories as the new virus COVID 19 become an omnipresent element of grave concern.

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POTENTIAL NEW SOURCES OF POWER IN INTERNATIONAL POLITICS. CASE STUDY: COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND HEALTH RESOURCES

Author(s): Alexandra SARCINSCHI / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

This paper argues that there is a potential new source of power, especially of hard power, that is specific to contemporary security environment characterized by the threat of COVID-19 pandemic. The starting premise is that the health system resources are a potential new source of hard power for a state actor to promote its foreign policy based on inducements or rewards. In terms of J. S. Nye Jr., health system resources might be used as a bribe or promise not for military or economic assistance (as specific to hard power), but for medical/humanitarian assistance. Therefore, the paper starts with a brief theoretical overview of the power concept and sources of power and continues with an analysis of the way in which a pandemic affects the international politics, especially the COVID-19 one.

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COVID-19: PROPAGANDA AND THE FEAR-FACTOR IN THE INTERNATIONAL AGENDA – A PERSONAL EXPERIENCE

Author(s): Urushadze Maia / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

At the start of 2019, when humanity was not yet sharply facing the threat of COVID, the security paradigm showed a tendency to change. In particular, in recent years, as far back as the beginning of last year, the attention of security experts has been focused on qualitatively new challenges. It is natural that COVID-19 pandemic has already changed the safety requirements of the world. Societies have changed in each country, in particular human relations, culture, and rules. The domestic and foreign policies of the states, border regulations, and the specifics of transportation have also changed. Besides, the most important social factor can be considered that a new struggle of interpretations has been activated in the media agenda. The worldwide international media agenda observation reveals that there are a lot of conspiracy theories have been developed around the pandemic virus, which strengthens mainstream ideological narratives through the fear factor. They have appealed to the fears in two conflicting directions and developed relevant interpretations in societies globally, within states. In this power struggle of interpretations, it is seen that the pandemic has imposed new responsibilities on the ruling elites, but also gives visible advantages to all local authorities. In particular, it is in their hands that the powerful, fear-backed levers of management are accumulated, with the help of which it is possible to strengthen the power. In the article is given the case of author’s personal experience.

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COVID-19 CRISIS – FRAGILE BALANCING BETWEEN CONTAINMENT MEASURES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

Author(s): Cristian Băhnăreanu / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic, the worst health crisis in the last 50 years, has disturbed the society and the economy through a series of negative effects to the people health and economic growth. Measures to prevent and combat the spread of the virus taken by most countries in the world in March-April have led, particularly in the second quarter of this year, to a generalized decline in economic activity. In this context, the paper analyzes whether the national authorities in the affected countries have managed to find a proper balance between measures to protect the health of citizens and those to ensure the smooth running of the economy.

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ADJUSTMENT OF AIR POWER TO CHALLENGES RAISED BY CYBER OPERATIONS

Author(s): Vasile-Cristian Onesimiuc,Sorin Topor / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Innovation and digital technologies have an even greater influence on the development and growth of the air power efficiency. Cyber operations are more and more visible and therefore presented as being part of normality. Upon state level, air force can no longer ignore this reality and has to take active measures to adapt to the new state of normality. Adaptation of the air power to the challenges raised by cyber operations is a lengthy process, which develops continuously and that shall cause additional consumption of means and resources that would usually have been allocated to other activities. However, provided the adaption of the air power to the new reality becomes impossible, then it will, unavoidably, lead to its transformation into a paper tiger.

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CURRENT TRENDS IN MILITARY LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT

Author(s): MITROI Cosmin-Florinel / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

In the current security environment, the trend for national security logistics will be, in our opinion, a logistics focused on supporting the needs of the armed forces and will have the mission to provide the security system forces with the necessary civilian and military personnel, equipment, means of subsistence and essential support, at the requested destination, at the required time and in the requested quantity, during the operations designed to take place. The forces of the national military system will have to develop a logistics system in an integrated network of unitary action. The expected transformation will not take place immediately but will require essential changes, in stages, of the current logistics system, which will allow the forces of the national military system to train its personnel and modernize, but especially to be more rapidly deployable, highly maneuverable, sustainable and efficient.

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WOMEN IN THE MILITARY PROFESSION – A BOOK WITH WHITE PAGES?

Author(s): Marina STĂNESCU / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Security is difficult to achieve and, while navigating the seas churned and high stakes situations, our military has to be more than just a sum of highly trained men and women, they have to be effective leaders with skills that exceed military sphere, able to act in an adequate and proportional manner. This article presents women’s participation, work and contribution to the Armed Forces development during the second half of the 20th century in Romania. Women and men in this period did not have the same political rights, did not share the same social roles, and could not access the same professional path. Despite facing challenging circumstances, women have assumed active roles and slowly became an integral part of the Armed Forces, showing extraordinary determination and skills. In this article, I will explore the main aspects concerning the social, legal, and political conditions affecting women’s life and profession.

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THE ROMANIAN DEFENCE INDUSTRY IN THE INTERNATIONAL ARMS SALE MARKET’S COMPETITION

Author(s): Crăişor Constantin IONIȚĂ / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

There is a fierce competition in the international arms sale market regarding the export of very high-tech and sensitive defence material. For some developed countries, like Russia, Greece, Italy, France, Sweden, the manufacture and sale of armaments represent a substantial percentage of their GDP and a possibility to grow their income and wealth. At the same time, because of the different research and development levels of advanced technologies in the production of defence capabilities, like multi-purpose platforms, unmanned systems, robotics, nanotechnology, artificial intelligence/learning machines, there is a huge discrepancy between American defence industry and the European one. This is really true when you consider the dependence of European industrial companies from their American counterparts. This dependence has obliged some European defence companies to establish bilateral or multilateral collaboration agreements to survive in the field of armaments export.For the Romanian Defence Industry, the discrepancy is even higher than Western similar companies, considering its reliance on old technologies, lack of specialists and research institutes, and acquisition of majority of its military equipment from the US. There is little interest from both the Government and the MoND to invest in national defence companies to buy their military products, which have lower technology incorporated and low performance equipment.

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REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE BLACK SEA – SOLUTIONS FOR THE FUTURE: THE SECURITY, STRATEGIES AND FORCES BALANCE

Author(s): Mihai PANAIT,Ion ROCEANU / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The post-pandemic period of COVID-19, in addition to profoundly changing international relations (especially globalization), brought a new perspective on the relationship among the concepts of regionalization, regionalization of security, new strategies and doctrines (to support them in the conditions of changing the level of operation imposed by COVID-19) as well as the type of new military equipment that will be found in the multi-annual procurement plans. The nature of the threats acquires a new nuance with the appearance of this pandemic and soon puts in front of the politico-military decision-makers, new reference points that will bring to the level of these days the fundamental documents (strategies, planning directives, procurement programs) that will support budgetary planning for the coming decades, research and innovation (to develop new platforms, sensors, and weapons with a small number of combatants), and new aspects of diminishing international and regional cooperation in favor of unilateral action. From now on, the new dimensions of the defense budget will have to contain other elements adapted to the COVID-19 fight.

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EURASIA – THE GEOPOLITICAL AND GEOSTRATEGIC BET OF THE 21st CENTURY

Author(s): Silviu Neguț / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Eurasia, the super continental mass that holds the largest share in the world`s size, population and economic power, has become the main region of interest on the planet. Within it, several geopolitical - geostrategic areas/regions have been mainly configured with great relevance (each with its actors/players - including some from outside this area - and with its problems/interests), such as North-East Asia, Central Asia, South-East Asia, Middle East, the Indian Ocean, Western Pacific, South China Sea, East China Sea, the Black Sea, the Arctic Ocean, etc. The first two decades of the 21st century, in addition to the spectacular economic assertion of some particular Asian countries, have increased the dynamism and complexity of the security environment around the world, largely due to some events that previously occurred in Eurasia: The Georgia war (2008), Russia`s takeover of Crimea (2014), US President Donald Trump`s unsuccessful attempts to ease relations with North Korea, China and Russia, tensions in the Middle East, the contradictory effects of the “greatest geo-economics project of the 21st century” - the New Silk Road), etc. Here, too, the game takes place between the two great present and future powers, the United States and China, and this game depends, or at least is influenced by other Eurasian actors.

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Some Speculations on Measurability with WERY (War Economic Recovery Index)

Author(s): Elena Simeonova / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The paper proposes and conceptually outlines an author’s composite indicator for measuring from political risk perspective the economic recovery after the current Russian-Ukrainian war. The core assumption is that the economic recovery is inevitable according to the general law of systems and the cyclicality. The aim is by combining and amending available measuring tools to propose new derivative which gives a different prospective economic recovery measurement. As a measurement tool, WERI is not yet complete and will be subject to future refinement and development. It should be perceived as a kind of manifestation of the author's passion for measurement and the construction of measuring tools.

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