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At all costs. Germany shifts to LNG

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the resulting collapse of the concept of an energy alliance between Berlin and Moscow, have become the catalysts for Germany to change its approach to building LNG import infrastructure. In order to become permanently independent of Russian supplies, Berlin has made an enormous financial effort to build its own terminals at record speed and on an unprecedented scale. The facilities planned will not only enable Germany to meet its economy’s demand for gas, but will also help it to maintain its role as the gas hub for Central Europe, which has been somewhat weakened recently. They will also allow it to continue to use gas as a transition fuel during the period of the country’s energy transition (Energiewende).

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Unfulfilled ambitions: Russia’s LNG sector in the grip of sanctions

Author(s): Filip Rudnik / Language(s): English

The technological sanctions which the West has imposed on Russia’s LNG sector have drastically reduced the opportunities for the industry’s expansion, and made it less likely that Russia can increase its share on the global LNG market. Moreover, the Russian Federation’s ambitious targets for LNG production capacity have not been formally revised, which means that it is now virtually impossible to achieve them. The slim chances of Russia’s LNG production capacity increasing over the coming years have a negative impact on the country’s overall gas exports. In view of Moscow’s political decision to slash pipeline supplies to Europe, liquefied gas could help Russia to mitigate the consequences of this reduction as long as there are no formal restrictions on its imports to the EU; it could also ensure that European consumers remain partly dependent on Russian gas. However, the tough restrictions on technology exports to Russia have significantly reduced the likelihood of this scenario becoming a reality.

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Games between allies. Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz,Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

The official visit by Xi Jinping, the Chairman of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to Moscow on 21–23 March was a demonstration of his country’s continued support for Russia in its conflict with the West. It also served as confirmation that Beijing and Moscow will continue to work for the revision of the international order, and therefore they regard each other as indispensable partners. The decisions on economic cooperation announced at the summit, and their intended results, point to a growing asymmetry in Sino-Russian economic relations. Economically, Russia is falling into a deep trade dependence on the PRC, its technology, and the use of the Chinese currency (RMB) for international settlements. Beijing is also showing growing ambitions to shape the security situation in the post-Soviet area, something previously reserved for Moscow.

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The New Government in Finland will Grant Stable Support to Ukraine

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

In the new right-wing coalition government formed on 20 June, the centre-right, economically liberal National Coalition Party (Kokoomus) of Prime Minister Petteri Orpo plays a leading role. He succeeded Sanna Marin of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), who headed the centre-left cabinet. The entry of the nationalist Finns Party (PS) into the government will not reduce Finland’s commitment to help Ukraine. Furthermore, the new government will increase its activity in NATO. This aligns with Poland’s security policy goals, also in the Baltic Sea region.

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EU Advances Engagement with Latin America and the Caribbean

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

In its strategy towards Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), announced on 7 June, the European Union mainly proposes cooperation in defending the rules-based international order, enhancing economic ties, and promoting sustainable social development. Itis part of the EU’s drive to renew its strategic partnership with LAC to compete more effectively with China’s growing regional presence, among other reasons. The Union is therefore intensifying contacts at the highest level and engagement through the Global Gateway infrastructure investment programme.

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Slovakia in Emergency Mode - Assessing the Performance of the First Technical Government

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Despite failing to win a vote of confidence in mid-June, Ludovit Ódor’s technical government will run the state until early general elections in September. Its main task is to stabilise the political situation after the previous dismissal of Eduard Heger’s government, whose policy it is continuing. Despite friendly gestures and interests converging with Poland, including in the field of Eastern and energy policy, cooperation will be limited due to the legal restrictions of the government, which has a transitional character.

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China Tempting EU Members and the Effect on Transatlantic Relations

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China seeks to maintain differences within the EU, particularly regarding transatlantic cooperation towards China. Some EU countries and institutions do not perceive China as a threat and look cautiously at the reduction of economic ties with it. Others regard transatlantic cooperation, including vis-à-vis China, as an important element in strengthening European security. These differing approaches limit the ability of the EU and the U.S. to interact in areas related both to Sino-Russian cooperation and China’s escalation in the Indo-Pacific.

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Syria’s Assad Regime Using Drug Smuggling as a Political Tool

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

The need to combat drug smuggling from Syria to other Arab countries has contributed to their leaders’ decision to normalise relations with Bashar al-Assad in order to convince him to curb the practice. The dismantling of the Assad-run captagon production and smuggling network is also becoming a priority of Western countries’ Middle East policy due to the increasing flow of the drug into Europe as well.

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Belarus Facing Growing Domestic Problems

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

The Belarusian authorities continue to suffer the consequences of rigging the 2020 presidential elections and their support for Russian aggression against Ukraine, which have resulted in a significant reduction in political and trade contacts with Western countries. To maintain internal stability, the regime is stepping up repression and attempting to militarise society by portraying external threats. Although the risk of regime collapse is not high, the EU should be prepared to increase its support for the democratisation of Belarus.

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Evolution of EU Travel Rules During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

The new variants of SARS-CoV-2 and the development of the vaccination process in the EU are changing the rules of travel within the territory of the Community. New guidelines on this matter adopted by the Council of the EU in January focus not so much on the country of departure of the traveller as on his/her personal health situation. This more individualised approach is to make it possible to dispense with additional ad hoc travel restrictions imposed by Member States. At the same time, it promotes vaccination, recognising it as essential in fighting the pandemic.

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Hungary and the Russian Threat of Further Aggression Against Ukraine

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Hungary considers the dispute between the West and Russia over renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine is of no concern to it. The government defines its stance from a neutral third party position. It neither condemns Russia’s actions nor supports Ukraine. Past actions indicate Hungary will not veto EU and allied actions against Russia if it would be the only country to break from common positions, however, it will continue to act to the benefit of Russia by trying to weaken Euro-Atlantic structures and impede cooperation with Ukraine.

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The EU increases its agri-food imports from Ukraine: causes and reactions from Central European states

Author(s): Team OSW / Language(s): English

31 March 2023 saw the publication of a joint letter by the prime ministers of Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, and the president of Bulgaria, to the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen on the measures they intended to take to counteract the negative effects of the increased imports of agricultural products from Ukraine to the EU. The document highlights the unprecedented increases in imports of grain, oil seeds, fruit, dairy and honey. It also proposes measures to improve the situation of local agricultural producers, including increasing the financial support offered to them. The authors of the letter emphasise that if the market disruptions cannot be eliminated by other means, tariffs and tariff rate quotas will need to be re-introduced on imports from Ukraine (they were suspended in June 2022). On 7 April 2023, Warsaw and Kyiv reached an agreement on suspending the export of wheat, corn, sunflower seeds and rapeseed to Poland until the beginning of the new season (summer), while the transit of Ukrainian produce via Polish territory will be maintained.

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Ukraine: a decisive blow to the Moscow Patriarchate?

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża,Katarzyna Chawryło (Jarzyńska) / Language(s): English

29 March 2023 marked the deadline for representatives of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP) to leave the Pechersk Lavra monastery complex in Kyiv, which they had been leasing. On 10 March the Ministry of Culture, which formally supervises the shrine, announced the termination of the agreement following a government audit which uncovered numerous irregularities there. Some of the clergy complied with the order, while another group headed by the lavra’s abbot, Metropolitan Pavlo (Lebid), refused. On 1 April, on the basis of a court ruling, the metropolitan was placed under house arrest for 60 days on charges of justifying the Russian attack on Ukraine. However, some monks still remain at the facility.

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Russia’s Wartime Censorship and Propaganda

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

In connection with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Russian authorities have introduced wartime censorship, forbidding the publication of content that does not conform to the official message of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation. This massive and unprecedented propaganda is leading to an increase in support for Vladimir Putin, and Russians protesting against the war are being brutally repressed and persecuted. The consequence is the strengthening of the totalitarian character of the Russian state and the emigration of Russians who do not support the war. The most significant element of the Russian war propaganda is that of “denazification”, a claim aimed also at Poland.

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The reluctant co-aggressor. Minsk’s complicity in the war against Ukraine

Author(s): Piotr Żochowski,Kamil Kłysiński,Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English

Since the beginning of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the Republic of Belarus (RB) has made its territory and its military, transport and logistical infrastructure available to the Russian army. However, the Belarusian army is not taking part in the hostilities. Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s regime is reluctant to become directly involved in the war, which results from anti-war sentiment among the country’s elite and the majority of the population, and out off ear of the domestic destabilisation which would most likely occur should the Belarusian army enter Ukraine. Therefore, Lukashenka is making attempts to avoid such a scenario: he regularly denies rumours that the Kremlin is putting pressure on him, and has stressed that the main threats to Belarus include alleged acts of provocation and aggressive behaviour from NATO. At present, there are no indications that the Kremlin intends to send Belarusian troops to take part in the war; it seems satisfied with the current format of cooperation between the two countries. Russia’s main task for Belarus, as part of the Regional Group of Forces, is to provide cover for its own forces, while the Belarusian army itself is unprepared to launch offensive actions. The most likely short-term scenario involves Minsk continuing to provide multifaceted support to the Russian army without directly dispatching its own troops to Ukraine.

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The EU's Options to Limit Russia's Arms Exports

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

In response to Russia's aggression in Ukraine, the European Union may consider imposing an embargo on Russian arms exports to its partners in the form of secondary sanctions. The aim would be to discourage third countries from purchasing weapons from Russia and to reduce the profits of the Russian defence industry. This could translate into lower revenues for the Russian budget and limiting its influence in the world. The EU should coordinate actions with the U.S. and its allies, including adopting a programme of support in the replacement of Russian weapons by states that are its traditional recipients.

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The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Food Security of Developing Countries

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The Russian aggression against Ukraine is yet another economic challenge for developing countries after the COVID-19 pandemic and threatens their food security. The expected lower production and limits on export of grains from Ukraine and Russia, as well asrising costs of energy resources and fertilisers have led to an increase in global food prices. To counter this crisis, the EU and the U.S. may seek to increase the worldwide supply of cereals, including by activating strategic reserves, refraining from export restrictions, strengthening financing for organisations preventing hunger, and facilitating trade in fertilisers.

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Involvement of EU Agencies in Helping Countries That Are Receiving Refugees from Ukraine

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

EU support for Member States most affected by the war in Ukraine includes funding for reception measures and ensuring refugees have access to protection throughout the Community, as well as coordination and operational assistance from EU agencies. The offer of agency resources extends to humanitarian aid, border management, and capacity-building of the Member States. Exploring the full potential of the EU agencies will require overcoming their internal problems and the will of the Member States to involve them in such cooperation,

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Russia’s War with Ukraine will Force the Acceleration of Food Production Reforms in Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Russia’s war against Ukraine limited the availability of wheat and other food products and fertilisers from both countries in Africa. In the short term, the crisis pushed several countries to ban food exports and seek alternative sources of supply. In the long run, it will make increasing production for domestic needs the highest priority on the African continent. The Nigerian solutions can be a good example in this regard.

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Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Debate on the Future of Agriculture in the EU

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

The war in Ukraine has sharpened the debate about the future of agriculture in the EU. Big agricultural producers are advocating a revision of targets and the timetable of the green transition. Environmentalist organisations urge a speed up, as they emphasise the downsides of agriculture’s dependence on imported fertilisers, fuel, and feed. In the face of political and economic instability, the majority of Member States are reducing their ambitions for environment-friendly reforms of the agricultural sector.

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