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Vaccine Diplomacy: A Tool in the Rivalry for Influence in Latin America

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

The uneven access to COVID-19 vaccines in Latin American countries has resulted in a widely varied pace of immunisation. The region has relied mainly on direct purchases from China and Russia, among others, the global COVAX initiative, and donations from the U.S. and other countries. Russia, China, and the U.S. in particular are using this “vaccine diplomacy” to boost their own political and economic influence in Latin America. The EU has been trying to position itself against that rivalry, for example, through significant funding for vaccine access and distribution initiatives. These efforts require, however, more efficient promotion of the Union’s engagement.

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Growing Global Inequality: Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Developing Countries

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The poorest countries will be the ones most affected by the long-term economic and social effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Delays in vaccinations and insufficient resources to prompt an economic recovery deepen their poverty. The deepening of economic inequality in the world will lead to destabilisation, increased migration pressure, and difficulties in achieving climate goals. That is why G20 leaders have announced that they will accelerate vaccination campaigns in the poorest countries. The EU can focus on increasing the supply of vaccines to developing countries and the recovery of their economies from the pandemic.

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The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on International Migration

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The COVID-19 pandemic has halted the rising trend of international migration. It has disproportionately affected irregular migrants and refugees, as well as the economies of countries where economic migrants play a major role. The return to the pre-pandemic state is hampered by disparities in access to vaccines, different regulations on arrivals to many countries, a lack of coordination in the recognition of vaccination certificates, and in other areas. The EU can support the development of global standards for accepting certificates. It may also be interested in resuming discussions on changes to international agreements regulating migration and assistance to refugees.

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COVID-19’s Impact on the South Korean Economy

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

South Korea’s economy probably will not avoid recession this year, but it will be less severe than in other highly developed countries. The deteriorating economic situation in South Korea’s main trading partners - China, the U.S., and the EU - has weakened its own economic indicators. Despite the pandemic, South Korean companies continue foreign investments as planned, including in Central Europe. Rising tensions between China and the U.S. may strengthen the investment commitment of South Korean companies in Southeast Asia..

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The Gulf Cooperation Council and the Pandemic

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

The fight against the spread of the coronavirus in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has forced cooperation between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, which were in conflict within the GCC. At the same time, the UAE took advantage of other countries’ need for support in countering COVID-19 to strengthen relations with China, Iran, and Syria, among others. The UAE’s activity emphasizes its ambition for domination of the region, which may lead to a new dispute within the GCC between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

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France and China: Post-Pandemic Relations

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

China’s lack of transparency in informing the world about COVID-19 at the early stage of the epidemic and attempts to pressure some EU states have awakened doubts in France about the benefits of bilateral relations with this country. The French government still wants to develop beneficial economic cooperation but at the same time will try to decrease the dependency of some industries on China. It will also aim to elaborate a common EU policy towards China. The latter will demand France consider the interests of other Member States in economic and industrial policy.

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Political Tensions and the Failure to Curb COVID-19 in Brazil

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

The spread rate of COVID-19 in Brazil is increasing and the policies of the federal government, headed by President Jair Bolsonaro, do not contribute to a slowdown in the pandemic. Bolsonaro downplays the threat and rejects restrictive measures as he prioritises support for the economy. He has clashed with state governors who introduced restrictions and with the Federal Supreme Court, which defended their autonomy. The deteriorating situation in Brazil amid the pandemic and political situation diminish Bolsonaro’s chances of re-election in 2022 and may strain his government’s relations with EU partners.

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Prospects for the Development of EU Health Policy after the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed both the weaknesses of Member States’ health systems and the limitations of the EU’s mechanism to respond to cross-border health threats. Strengthening the EU’s resistance to health crises will become an important point in budget negotiations and the deliberations of the planned Conference on the Future of Europe. Although there are some supporters of granting the EU greater powers in this area, the changes will most likely be limited to increasing the resources of European health institutions and improving the mechanisms of cooperation between states in order to better respond to future crises.

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Pandemic and Protests: Impacts on the Socio-Political Situation in the U.S.

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Democrats and Republicans strengthened cooperation on the adoption of relief packages of unprecedented size for enterprises particularly affected by the outbreak and for citizens. However, this cooperation quickly ended, and the ongoing protests over police brutality in the U.S., with both parties on opposite sides, make it difficult to negotiate further pandemic-aid action. It also has prevented other reforms, such as changes to policing as raised by the protesters. This further focuses the presidential campaigns on domestic policy.

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Slovakia’s Fight against the Pandemic and the Effects on the Economy

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Slovakia is among the countries that have halted the spread of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). It has the lowest COVID-19 death rate in the EU and the lowest percentage of infected. Thanks to its participation in the coordination of the border regime, the significance of the Slavkov Triangle in Slovakia’s foreign policy has risen. In turn, through the Visegrad Group and with Germany, Igor Matovič’s cabinet wants to strengthen the country’s negotiating position in the talks on the Next Generation EU mechanism and the Multiannual Financial Framework for 2021-27 (MFF).

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A System Correction in a Time of Crises: German Federalism vs. the Pandemic

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

The diversity of regional strategies to counter the COVID-19 pandemic prompted the German federal government to take control of the fight against the coronavirus and the Bundestag temporarily increased the powers of the central authorities in the area of healthcare. The initial difficulties of the regional governments in the fight against the pandemic can be a catalyst for constitutional changes and increasing the role of the federal government in areas such as healthcare and internal security.

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The Importance of Legal Issues in the Negotiations of the Next Generation EU Recovery Fund

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

The unprecedented size of the recovery fund that the European Commission (EC) wants to set up through the issuance of bonds and the planned allocation of most of the money as non-repayable assistance to Member States have given rise to doubts regarding the compliance of these actions with EU treaties. The legal concerns do not seem substantial enough to block the creation of the fund. They could, however, be used in negotiations regarding its final shape and the criteria for the allocation of resources in particular.

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Bavarian PM Söder’s Prospects for the Christian Democrat’s Nomination as Chancellor

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Bavaria’s strategy to counter the COVID-19 pandemic has contributed to a rise in popularity of its prime minister and the head of the Christian Social Union (CSU), Marcus Söder. This strengthens his chances of winning the nomination for chancellor on behalf of the Christian Democrats in the upcoming Bundestag elections. Söder’s nomination would mean an increase in the influence of the CSU and could complicate relations with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the long run.

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Consequences of COVID-19 in ASEAN States

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

The COVID-19 pandemic in the 10 member states of ASEAN has resulted in severe losses of life and economic problems, including higher unemployment. It also has revealed weakness in the bloc’s integration, including a lack of coordination. However, the crisis is an opportunity to tighten cooperation, for example, in the supply of medical equipment. It may also contribute to the intensification of relations with external partners, such as trade agreements with the EU, which can support ASEAN economies’ recovery from recession.

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Anything but Lockdown: Germany in the Face of the Second Wave of the Pandemic

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

A rapid increase in the number of infections has prompted federal and provincial authorities in Germany to introduce new restrictions. They are designed to prevent local rates from exceeding 50 infections per 100,000 residents. The effectiveness of these actions will be of key importance for the condition of the economy. It will also affect the final balance sheet of the grand coalition rule and the course of next year’s election campaign to the Bundestag.

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Final Days before the U.S. Presidential Election

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The U.S. presidential election is 3 November, but millions of Americans have already voted. The fear of COVID-19 and strong support of their chosen candidate from the early stage of the campaign prompted voters to participate in early voting. While Democratic challenger Joe Biden is indicated as the likely winner, it is possible that the polls do not reflect Donald Trump’s actual chances of re-election. At the same time, the president has signalled that he might not concede defeat because of what he has described as a fraudulent process of votes by post. The probability is high of political instability until the next president is sworn in January 2021.

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Second Wave of COVID-19 in Israel

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Israel was among the states that managed to mitigate the first wave of COVID-19. However, inconsistent actions in lifting the restrictions and a decline in social discipline have led to a sharp increase in morbidity. That forced Israel to be first country in the world to introduce a second lockdown, which is now being lifted. The political consequences of the second wave are a drop in support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and increased tensions within the coalition, both of which enhance the chances of another cabinet crisis, including an early elections scenario.

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France: New Lockdown Worsens Old Crises

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

A robust increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections forced the French authorities to introduce a new lockdown from 30 October. This attempt to limit the spread of the pandemic coincides with rising apprehension after recent terrorist attacks and a worsening economy. The government of Jean Castex is only a few months old but has to cope not only with the introduction of a recovery plan but also the need to reinforce the sense of security among the people of France.

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China’s Preparations for the Second Wave of COVID-19

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

A very low increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections has been recorded for many months in China. However, local outbreaks occur regularly and the Chinese authorities expect the number to rise towards the end of the year. The authorities have begun limiting the entry of foreigners to China and are speeding up the completion of work on a vaccine. China is taking advantage of the relatively stable situation to increase its influence in Central Europe, Asia, and Latin America at the expense of the U.S. and the EU. As a result, the scope for Union cooperation with China to combat the pandemic remains limited.

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Joint Crisis-Response: Towards a European Health Union

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

The European Commission (EC) presented a package of legislative proposals initiating the creation of a European Health Union. The proposals seek to strengthen crisis management in the face of cross-border health threats, including institutional reforms in the area of health. They do not prejudice the competences of the Member States as defined in the Treaties but are an incentive for closer cooperation in the field of health at the EU level. In the long run, this may pave the way for a revision of the competences of the EU and states in health policy.

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